What’s it going to take?

Doog_de_Jour

To finally crash the economy? A massive global pandemic, murder hornets, Sark being hired at Texas, OBK’s 5G, the 2020 election...and yet it seems like many are still living it up like Creep.





What am I missing? I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop...and I’m not saying there aren’t a lot of people hurting, don’t twist, it just seems like things should be, well, worse.

dnc

The whole thing has been chincredibly strange economically.

I still think this will fall apart but the when seems a big mystery. I wood have bet the farm the economy wood have already crashed by now.

dflea

This makes me think Eeyore doesn't know his ass from a hole in the ground, and this country could do a lot of things without "cratering the economy".

As soon as I claim that as fact, though, the wheels will come off the bus and we'll go off a cliff and die in flames.

I don't remember a case study of any global pandemic in Econ class, though, so I don't know what the expectation is.

ntxduck

dnc said:

The whole thing has been chincredibly strange economically.

I still think this will fall apart but the when seems a big mystery. I wood have bet the farm the economy wood have already crashed by now.

It fell of the cliff dec 2018 and has been propped up by the fed since then. Funny the folks screaming market manipulation!! Now were stone silent when it was done solely to prop up a failing presidents re-election campaign.

But now it’s turned into a third rail. No president/fed chair is going to do what is needed (turn the presses off/raise rates) because the immediate market reaction will tank their chances of re-election. Even though it would be in the best interest of the country, long-term.

HoustonHusky

I think a recession is coming whether the official numbers say it or not. Unemployment is going the wrong way the last month and we are only a week into new economic policies...small business sentiment is in the crapper. I’ve been sitting in bank and consulting forecasts for the last couple weeks though and the consensus from them is that everything should be rosy by middle of the year so what do I know. The line that made me laugh the most was that one group said the Fed will starting talking at the end of this year about raising rates at the end of 2022. Suckers.

That said, the rest of the world is a mess which helps prop us up. Europe is a complete mess...same with Japan. Same with all of South America. China, for as much as people sing their praises, isn’t open to outside companies and all of its growth is tied up into building useless infrastructure as much as they try to claim otherwise. So in that environment the only place to put your money is still the US...helps to cover up the many warts we have here.

HoustonHusky

ntxduck said:

dnc said:

The whole thing has been chincredibly strange economically.

I still think this will fall apart but the when seems a big mystery. I wood have bet the farm the economy wood have already crashed by now.

It fell of the cliff dec 2018 and has been propped up by the fed since then. Funny the folks screaming market manipulation!! Now were stone silent when it was done solely to prop up a failing presidents re-election campaign.

But now it’s turned into a third rail. No president/fed chair is going to do what is needed (turn the presses off/raise rates) because the immediate market reaction will tank their chances of re-election. Even though it would be in the best interest of the country, long-term.

Economy didn't fall off the cliff...the stock market pulled back when it looked like the Fed was going to let their balance sheet come down. They won't make that mistake again...

The simple fact that good economic news is bad for the stock market whereas bad news (i.e. more Fed $$$) is good for the stock market describes the current situation...

haie

We artificially half shut down our economy. Different situation than a normal recession.

Some industries have skyrocketed when others have, again, been artificially killed.

There's still a great demand for some of those industries (restaurant, public house, gym).

Pitchfork51

There are tons of chicks just out of college that are desperate when the economy crashes. I'm looking forward to it.

doogie

Doog_de_Jour said:

To finally crash the economy? A massive global pandemic, murder hornets, Sark being hired at Texas, OBK’s 5G, the 2020 election...and yet it seems like many are still living it up like Creep.





What am I missing? I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop...and I’m not saying there aren’t a lot of people hurting, don’t twist, it just seems like things should be, well, worse.

Print, Print, Print!

As long as we* keep doing that, Everything* will be just fine

BleachedAnusDawg

Pitchfork51 said:

There are tons of chicks just out of college that are desperate when the economy crashes. I'm looking forward to it.

Sounds like you were born for the COVID-era and have your reads down.

BennyBeaver

In my small economy the outlook couldn’t be any rosier for 2021. High demand, and inquiries for even higher demand in Q2 through the end of the year.

Only problem is the supply side is gonna fuck up the momentum.

creepycoug

haie said:

We artificially half shut down our economy. Different situation than a normal recession.

Some industries have skyrocketed when others have, again, been artificially killed.

There's still a great demand for some of those industries (restaurant, public house, gym).

It'll be interesting how much of the industries that are, by their nature, vulnerable to pandemic shutdown we'll see return.

Who in their right mind will invest capital in a restaurant? There will be great demand, but who will want to do it?

creepycoug

HoustonHusky said:

I think a recession is coming whether the official numbers say it or not. Unemployment is going the wrong way the last month and we are only a week into new economic policies...small business sentiment is in the crapper. I’ve been sitting in bank and consulting forecasts for the last couple weeks though and the consensus from them is that everything should be rosy by middle of the year so what do I know. The line that made me laugh the most was that one group said the Fed will starting talking at the end of this year about raising rates at the end of 2022. Suckers.

That said, the rest of the world is a mess which helps prop us up. Europe is a complete mess...same with Japan. Same with all of South America. China, for as much as people sing their praises, isn’t open to outside companies and all of its growth is tied up into building useless infrastructure as much as they try to claim otherwise. So in that environment the only place to put your money is still the US...helps to cover up the many warts we have here.

It's my go-to line: where else you gonna go?

RaceBannon

We? have kicked the can down the road to June now

https://patch.com/california/temecula/s/hell5/california-extends-eviction-moratorium-through-june

With the state's eviction moratorium set to expire at the end of January, California lawmakers passed two bills extending it through June.

An eviction moratorium extension and $2.6 billion in rental relief overwhelmingly passed both chambers of California's legislature Thursday amid questions from legislators over the efficacy of the state's rollout plan and the equity of the money's distribution among small, rural areas.

The state's eviction moratorium will be extended until June 30 if signed by Gov. Gavin Newsom, who supported the legislation during last-minute negotiations among legislative leaders, tenant associations and the powerful California Apartment Association.

California's families need protections NOW from eviction.Today we're announcing an agreement to extend eviction moratorium through 6/30.We're ensuring that up to $2.6 billion in renter aid is administered quickly & equitably. #CaliforniaForAll https://t.co/g0xR3SYasv
— Office of the Governor of California (@CAgovernor) January 25, 2021

The Temecula Pea Patch is my source

Speaking of Husky Stadium.........

Doog_de_Jour

My reading comprehension might not be the best, since it’s Friday and I’m skimming through these poasts in between seeing clients, but not a lot of answers to the OP’s question. We know what’s propping things up, but what’s the piece in this economic game of Jenga that will cause things to finally collapse?

Seems like one (or any combination) of these things might be it:

- As Race alluded to, COVID relief running out
- COVID vaccine not working/distributed as fast as we? hoped
- Loan or credit delinquencies finally get to be too much
- More Robinhood/GameStop-esque type bullshit causes investors to lose their damn minds
- The specter of inflation that has been discussed in other threads
- As HoustonHusky said, unemployment numbers getting worse

Again, maybe I’m stressing out for nothing, but it’s seems weird that after the huge dip in March of 2020, the year closed with this:

S&P 500 gained 15.6%.
Nasdaq gained 43.7%.
Dow Jones gained 6.6%.

FremontTroll

HoustonHusky said:

I think a recession is coming whether the official numbers say it or not. Unemployment is going the wrong way the last month and we are only a week into new economic policies...small business sentiment is in the crapper. I’ve been sitting in bank and consulting forecasts for the last couple weeks though and the consensus from them is that everything should be rosy by middle of the year so what do I know. The line that made me laugh the most was that one group said the Fed will starting talking at the end of this year about raising rates at the end of 2022. Suckers.

That said, the rest of the world is a mess which helps prop us up. Europe is a complete mess...same with Japan. Same with all of South America. China, for as much as people sing their praises, isn’t open to outside companies and all of its growth is tied up into building useless infrastructure as much as they try to claim otherwise. So in that environment the only place to put your money is still the US...helps to cover up the many warts we have here.

HoustonHusky said:

I think a recession is coming whether the official numbers say it or not. Unemployment is going the wrong way the last month and we are only a week into new economic policies...small business sentiment is in the crapper. I’ve been sitting in bank and consulting forecasts for the last couple weeks though and the consensus from them is that everything should be rosy by middle of the year so what do I know. The line that made me laugh the most was that one group said the Fed will starting talking at the end of this year about raising rates at the end of 2022. Suckers.

That said, the rest of the world is a mess which helps prop us up. Europe is a complete mess...same with Japan. Same with all of South America. China, for as much as people sing their praises, isn’t open to outside companies and all of its growth is tied up into building useless infrastructure as much as they try to claim otherwise. So in that environment the only place to put your money is still the US...helps to cover up the many warts we have here.

Recession is coming? We’ve been in a recession since February 2020.

The stock market is not the economy.

Pitchfork51

creepycoug said:

HoustonHusky said:

I think a recession is coming whether the official numbers say it or not. Unemployment is going the wrong way the last month and we are only a week into new economic policies...small business sentiment is in the crapper. I’ve been sitting in bank and consulting forecasts for the last couple weeks though and the consensus from them is that everything should be rosy by middle of the year so what do I know. The line that made me laugh the most was that one group said the Fed will starting talking at the end of this year about raising rates at the end of 2022. Suckers.

That said, the rest of the world is a mess which helps prop us up. Europe is a complete mess...same with Japan. Same with all of South America. China, for as much as people sing their praises, isn’t open to outside companies and all of its growth is tied up into building useless infrastructure as much as they try to claim otherwise. So in that environment the only place to put your money is still the US...helps to cover up the many warts we have here.

It's my go-to line: where else you gonna go?

somewhere not inherently evil. a place not founded on a history of racism and genocide. a place with no white people.

HHusky

NorthwestFresh

FremontTroll said:

HoustonHusky said:

I think a recession is coming whether the official numbers say it or not. Unemployment is going the wrong way the last month and we are only a week into new economic policies...small business sentiment is in the crapper. I’ve been sitting in bank and consulting forecasts for the last couple weeks though and the consensus from them is that everything should be rosy by middle of the year so what do I know. The line that made me laugh the most was that one group said the Fed will starting talking at the end of this year about raising rates at the end of 2022. Suckers.

That said, the rest of the world is a mess which helps prop us up. Europe is a complete mess...same with Japan. Same with all of South America. China, for as much as people sing their praises, isn’t open to outside companies and all of its growth is tied up into building useless infrastructure as much as they try to claim otherwise. So in that environment the only place to put your money is still the US...helps to cover up the many warts we have here.

HoustonHusky said:

I think a recession is coming whether the official numbers say it or not. Unemployment is going the wrong way the last month and we are only a week into new economic policies...small business sentiment is in the crapper. I’ve been sitting in bank and consulting forecasts for the last couple weeks though and the consensus from them is that everything should be rosy by middle of the year so what do I know. The line that made me laugh the most was that one group said the Fed will starting talking at the end of this year about raising rates at the end of 2022. Suckers.

That said, the rest of the world is a mess which helps prop us up. Europe is a complete mess...same with Japan. Same with all of South America. China, for as much as people sing their praises, isn’t open to outside companies and all of its growth is tied up into building useless infrastructure as much as they try to claim otherwise. So in that environment the only place to put your money is still the US...helps to cover up the many warts we have here.

Recession is coming? We’ve been in a recession since February 2020.

The stock market is not the economy.

Technically not in a recession since Q4 saw a 6% growth in real GDP and Q3 was a whopping 33% in real GDP. That’s two straight quarters of growth. Not a recession.

haie

@creepycoug

I would say larger gyms and corporate breweries (multiple locations, brew their own beer, distribution, godly covered outdoor areas like Heathen in downtown Van) will be just fine, and replicating them toward the end of this (whenever the fuck that is) is a decent investment.

Too drunk to quote you properly, so I apologise (since it's your fucking bored)

AEB

The Fed giveth
The Fed taketh