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Welcome to the Hardcore Husky Forums. Folks who are well-known in Cyberland and not that dumb.

Baseman lowers Starbucks (SBUX) to Hold.

2»

Comments

  • Baseman said:

    Capex has little impact on EPS btw. Will be back to $3+ in EPS shortly and competition decimated (how’s your little corner barista going to do through all this?).

    Should be trading at $90+ in this market. Quality restaurants stocks always trade at a high multiple (check out CMG)

    Wrong. Cash flow from operations - Capex = Free Cash Flow

    Free Cash Flow - Dividends = $ for growth or stock buybacks.

    Starbucks won't cut their divided and stock Buybacks has has been a major driver of Starbucks EPS growth.

    With downward pressure from decreased sales and projected capex increases for reconfiguring existing stores and closures, EPS growth will suffer for the foreseeable future.

    HTH
    You’re conflating the P&L and cash flow. I wasn’t talking about FCF. And capex is a good thing and drives most of the growth. Buybacks help over time too but they only add ~2% or so per year to growth.

    Those investments in on-the-go are more than maintenance capex. Some is going to unit growth too.

  • SourcesSources Posts: 1,211
    Swaye's Wigwam 2,500 Awesomes 1,500 Up Votes 250 Answers
    el oh el if you are using fundamental analysis in this market. Enjoy your 3% upside this year. Buy FAANG and TSLA, profit.
  • BasemanBaseman Posts: 9,846
    Swaye's Wigwam 10,000 Awesomes 5,000 Up Votes 5000 Comments
    edited August 22
    Sources said:

    el oh el if you are using fundamental analysis in this market. Enjoy your 3% upside this year. Buy FAANG and TSLA, profit.

    I'm already up on Apple, Amazon, Google, and Chipotle. Sounds like things are different now. Pretty sure I've seen this movie before.
    SonnyShackelfordFireCohen
  • SourcesSources Posts: 1,211
    Swaye's Wigwam 2,500 Awesomes 1,500 Up Votes 250 Answers
    Baseman said:

    Sources said:

    el oh el if you are using fundamental analysis in this market. Enjoy your 3% upside this year. Buy FAANG and TSLA, profit.

    I'm already up on Apple, Amazon, Google, and Chipotle. Sounds like things are different now. Pretty sure I've seen this movie before.
    There's definitely a correction coming, but I'd rather be way up and lose 30% than flat and lose 40%. Either way, I'm completely cash outside of 401k ETFs and a few TSLA options, and likely will stay that way until the election ends
  • BasemanBaseman Posts: 9,846
    Swaye's Wigwam 10,000 Awesomes 5,000 Up Votes 5000 Comments

    Baseman said:

    Capex has little impact on EPS btw. Will be back to $3+ in EPS shortly and competition decimated (how’s your little corner barista going to do through all this?).

    Should be trading at $90+ in this market. Quality restaurants stocks always trade at a high multiple (check out CMG)

    Wrong. Cash flow from operations - Capex = Free Cash Flow

    Free Cash Flow - Dividends = $ for growth or stock buybacks.

    Starbucks won't cut their divided and stock Buybacks has has been a major driver of Starbucks EPS growth.

    With downward pressure from decreased sales and projected capex increases for reconfiguring existing stores and closures, EPS growth will suffer for the foreseeable future.

    HTH
    You’re conflating the P&L and cash flow. I wasn’t talking about FCF. And capex is a good thing and drives most of the growth. Buybacks help over time too but they only add ~2% or so per year to growth.

    Those investments in on-the-go are more than maintenance capex. Some is going to unit growth too.

    Starbucks near term Capex will do little to drive revenue. It's more about long term consumer demand. People aren't going to sit in Starbucks Cafes anymore. It's pickup your drink and go. Sales and profit are way down and it's not going to change in the near term. Last year Starbucks bought back 11.6% of their shares (not the 2% you claimed) and they still earned .30 less than the year before.

    Revenue run rate is trending $4 Billion below last year (down 15%) The stock currently trades at 29x forward earnings. It was a screaming buy @ $50 earlier this year. I wouldn't pay more than $60 right now. There are better opportunities.
  • FireCohenFireCohen Posts: 16,413
    10,000 Awesomes 10,000 Up Votes 10000 Comments 250 Answers
    Sources said:

    el oh el if you are using fundamental analysis in this market. Enjoy your 3% upside this year. Buy FAANG and TSLA, profit.

    We lucky fucking big brother step up and backstopped the whole thab
  • Pitchfork51Pitchfork51 Posts: 19,321
    10,000 Up Votes 10,000 Awesomes 10000 Comments 250 Answers
    Sources said:

    el oh el if you are using fundamental analysis in this market. Enjoy your 3% upside this year. Buy MANGINA, profit.


    We've gone over this already
  • BasemanBaseman Posts: 9,846
    Swaye's Wigwam 10,000 Awesomes 5,000 Up Votes 5000 Comments
    Sources said:

    Baseman said:

    Sources said:

    el oh el if you are using fundamental analysis in this market. Enjoy your 3% upside this year. Buy FAANG and TSLA, profit.

    I'm already up on Apple, Amazon, Google, and Chipotle. Sounds like things are different now. Pretty sure I've seen this movie before.
    There's definitely a correction coming, but I'd rather be way up and lose 30% than flat and lose 40%. Either way, I'm completely cash outside of 401k ETFs and a few TSLA options, and likely will stay that way until the election ends
    1 -"Buy FAANG and TSLA, profit."
    2 - "There's definitely a correction coming, but I'd rather be way up and lose 30% than flat and lose 40%. Either way, I'm completely cash outside of 401k ETFs and a few TSLA options, and likely will stay that way until the election ends"


  • SourcesSources Posts: 1,211
    Swaye's Wigwam 2,500 Awesomes 1,500 Up Votes 250 Answers
    Baseman said:

    Sources said:

    Baseman said:

    Sources said:

    el oh el if you are using fundamental analysis in this market. Enjoy your 3% upside this year. Buy FAANG and TSLA, profit.

    I'm already up on Apple, Amazon, Google, and Chipotle. Sounds like things are different now. Pretty sure I've seen this movie before.
    There's definitely a correction coming, but I'd rather be way up and lose 30% than flat and lose 40%. Either way, I'm completely cash outside of 401k ETFs and a few TSLA options, and likely will stay that way until the election ends
    1 -"Buy FAANG and TSLA, profit."
    2 - "There's definitely a correction coming, but I'd rather be way up and lose 30% than flat and lose 40%. Either way, I'm completely cash outside of 401k ETFs and a few TSLA options, and likely will stay that way until the election ends"


    Admittedly some contradiction there, but I should clarify that it's a matter of horizon. I tend to invest short term, which is why I'm avoiding going long on anything outside of what looks opportunistic (e.g., TSLA). For the majority of folks, buying shares of the big techs will, in the long run, far outperform the rest of the market. FAANG is also much more correction-proof in part because of the confidence people have in those companies as well as the fact that these companies have business models that don't require people in offices
    Baseman
  • BasemanBaseman Posts: 9,846
    Swaye's Wigwam 10,000 Awesomes 5,000 Up Votes 5000 Comments
    Sources said:

    Baseman said:

    Sources said:

    Baseman said:

    Sources said:

    el oh el if you are using fundamental analysis in this market. Enjoy your 3% upside this year. Buy FAANG and TSLA, profit.

    I'm already up on Apple, Amazon, Google, and Chipotle. Sounds like things are different now. Pretty sure I've seen this movie before.
    There's definitely a correction coming, but I'd rather be way up and lose 30% than flat and lose 40%. Either way, I'm completely cash outside of 401k ETFs and a few TSLA options, and likely will stay that way until the election ends
    1 -"Buy FAANG and TSLA, profit."
    2 - "There's definitely a correction coming, but I'd rather be way up and lose 30% than flat and lose 40%. Either way, I'm completely cash outside of 401k ETFs and a few TSLA options, and likely will stay that way until the election ends"


    buying shares of the big techs will, in the long run, far outperform the rest of the market.
    Agree, although I'm wary of Netflix going forward

  • FireCohenFireCohen Posts: 16,413
    10,000 Awesomes 10,000 Up Votes 10000 Comments 250 Answers
    Baseman said:

    Sources said:

    Baseman said:

    Sources said:

    Baseman said:

    Sources said:

    el oh el if you are using fundamental analysis in this market. Enjoy your 3% upside this year. Buy FAANG and TSLA, profit.

    I'm already up on Apple, Amazon, Google, and Chipotle. Sounds like things are different now. Pretty sure I've seen this movie before.
    There's definitely a correction coming, but I'd rather be way up and lose 30% than flat and lose 40%. Either way, I'm completely cash outside of 401k ETFs and a few TSLA options, and likely will stay that way until the election ends
    1 -"Buy FAANG and TSLA, profit."
    2 - "There's definitely a correction coming, but I'd rather be way up and lose 30% than flat and lose 40%. Either way, I'm completely cash outside of 401k ETFs and a few TSLA options, and likely will stay that way until the election ends"


    buying shares of the big techs will, in the long run, far outperform the rest of the market.
    Agree, although I'm wary of Netflix going forward

    Would u consider it tech? More of entertainment company with a tech flair
  • BasemanBaseman Posts: 9,846
    Swaye's Wigwam 10,000 Awesomes 5,000 Up Votes 5000 Comments
    FireCohen said:

    Baseman said:

    Sources said:

    Baseman said:

    Sources said:

    Baseman said:

    Sources said:

    el oh el if you are using fundamental analysis in this market. Enjoy your 3% upside this year. Buy FAANG and TSLA, profit.

    I'm already up on Apple, Amazon, Google, and Chipotle. Sounds like things are different now. Pretty sure I've seen this movie before.
    There's definitely a correction coming, but I'd rather be way up and lose 30% than flat and lose 40%. Either way, I'm completely cash outside of 401k ETFs and a few TSLA options, and likely will stay that way until the election ends
    1 -"Buy FAANG and TSLA, profit."
    2 - "There's definitely a correction coming, but I'd rather be way up and lose 30% than flat and lose 40%. Either way, I'm completely cash outside of 401k ETFs and a few TSLA options, and likely will stay that way until the election ends"


    buying shares of the big techs will, in the long run, far outperform the rest of the market.
    Agree, although I'm wary of Netflix going forward

    Would u consider it tech? More of entertainment company with a tech flair
    No. Part of FAANG, though. Crowded space with Amazon, Apple, Disney, Warner & HBO (AT&T), and Viacom CBS. Expect going forward, the existing content titans; Disney, Warner/HBO, and Viacom to stop licensing to Netflix. Expect Apple and Amazon, with their cash positions, to acquire and produce more original content. Tom Hanks signing with Apple speaks volumes.
  • godawgstgodawgst Posts: 1,369
    Swaye's Wigwam 1,500 Up Votes 250 Answers Fifth Anniversary
    Baseman said:

    FireCohen said:

    Baseman said:

    Sources said:

    Baseman said:

    Sources said:

    Baseman said:

    Sources said:

    el oh el if you are using fundamental analysis in this market. Enjoy your 3% upside this year. Buy FAANG and TSLA, profit.

    I'm already up on Apple, Amazon, Google, and Chipotle. Sounds like things are different now. Pretty sure I've seen this movie before.
    There's definitely a correction coming, but I'd rather be way up and lose 30% than flat and lose 40%. Either way, I'm completely cash outside of 401k ETFs and a few TSLA options, and likely will stay that way until the election ends
    1 -"Buy FAANG and TSLA, profit."
    2 - "There's definitely a correction coming, but I'd rather be way up and lose 30% than flat and lose 40%. Either way, I'm completely cash outside of 401k ETFs and a few TSLA options, and likely will stay that way until the election ends"


    buying shares of the big techs will, in the long run, far outperform the rest of the market.
    Agree, although I'm wary of Netflix going forward

    Would u consider it tech? More of entertainment company with a tech flair
    No. Part of FAANG, though. Crowded space with Amazon, Apple, Disney, Warner & HBO (AT&T), and Viacom CBS. Expect going forward, the existing content titans; Disney, Warner/HBO, and Viacom to stop licensing to Netflix. Expect Apple and Amazon, with their cash positions, to acquire and produce more original content. Tom Hanks signing with Apple speaks volumes.
    Bingo with Netflix. IIRC they have lost a 1/3rd of their library to other entities taking back their content, and are losing billions in creating they own original content.

    What they do have going for them is a strong overseas presence that no other current player has and maybe that's what saves them.



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