Welcome to the Hardcore Husky Forums. Folks who are well-known in Cyberland and not that dumb.
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Hospitalization data does not lag from the cases data... You wont find a study saying so, symptom onset after exposure isnt long enough to create a noticeable lag in the data and viral shedding can occur 14-20 days even after hospitalization. The data decoupled from the well established ratios for the first 6 months due to changes in testing and classification.incremetal_progress said:
Cases skyrocketed in Texas, Arizona, and Florida, then hospitalizations began to skyrocket, now deaths are going up in all three states. I don't see why these trends won't all continue.Houhusky said:
There is no "lag" between the confirmed case data and hospitalization data. There wasn't for the first 6 months of the "mass transmission"incremetal_progress said:
Hospital lags behind the mass transmission that has occurred since memorial day. Look at the states like Florida and Texas who opened up in May and are just as of 2 weeks ago hospitals starting filling. Now last week deaths began to spike in Texas.Houhusky said:
Hospitalizations a lagging indicator of what? The ICU census and confirmed cases were highly coupled until the beginning of June, about 1 month ago.MelloDawg said:
Do you think that hospitalizations are a lagging indicator? In other words, as the cases increase, do you think that hospitalizations will as well? Seems to be a logical progression. I do know that hospitals in hot spots such as Houston are full to the point where they're booking adults into children's hospitals because the regular ones can't accommodate them.HoustonHusky said:
What does running short of PPE have anything to do with the relatively low numbers of Covid patients in hospital beds?Dugdawg said:Youre full of shit. Washington clinics are already starting to run short of PPE again.
Obviously, at this point, people are entrenched in their beliefs that COVID is either a big deal or it's not, no amount of data is going to convince one side either way. If hospitalizations go up, I don't imagine that'll move the needle for those who think COVID is exaggerated.
As far as Houston or hospital capacity.... The rumors of the overflowing cordwood hospitals seem exaggerated...
http://memorialhermann.org/news/joint-statement-from-st--luke%E2%80%99s-health,-houston-methodist,-memorial-hermann-health-system---texas-children%E2%80%99s-hospital-regarding-houston-hospital-capacity-and-executive-order/
"we want to reassure the public that this pandemic is not eclipsing our capabilities. Our hospitals have the ICU capacity, staff and supplies to meet the healthcare needs of our community. In addition, Texas hospitals continue to reserve 15 percent of capacity for COVID-19 patients and medical care continues to be routinely provided in inpatient and outpatient settings without taxing the overall hospitalization capacity."
Likewise Texas Medical official publication from yesterday showed plenty of manageable capacity available... The vast majority of the ICU beds are occupied by non Covid patients and "can be managed by appropriately transferring patients from ICU to medical/surgical beds"
https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/overview-of-tmc-icu-bed-capacity-and-occupancy/
Compare that to states like California and Washington who opened up a month later but are still seeing an increase, they are simply a month behind but are on the same path if they don't turn it around. Remember the first confirmed case in Washington was January 22 and it took more than a month for a death to occur.
This all happens on a timeline.
The CDC, on their website, states the median time from exposure to symptom is 4-5 days
its been 49 days since Memorial day
You have no fucking clue what you are talking about...
and even with that 4-5 day window which is too short and likely a result of a lack of testing not catching cases as early back in March as they do now, there is still a massive reporting delay on deaths and hospitalizations.
Confirmed cases has always been such a massive undercount it isnt reflective of actual infections in the population.
Total Hospital census is highly effected by dwell time and isn't reflective of infection severity or prevalence in the population.
I cant imagine why you are trying to disagree with actual CDC and medical studies...
the median exposure to symptom onset is 4-5 days
science denier or science illiterate
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What if I told you that an increase in numbers from small numbers (TX, AZ, FL) is still much less than the numbers experienced in NY and NJ? Look at the numbers on the left side for perspective:incremetal_progress said:
Cases skyrocketed in Texas, Arizona, and Florida, then hospitalizations began to skyrocket, now deaths are going up in all three states. I don't see why these trends won't all continue.Houhusky said:
There is no "lag" between the confirmed case data and hospitalization data. There wasn't for the first 6 months of the "mass transmission"incremetal_progress said:
Hospital lags behind the mass transmission that has occurred since memorial day. Look at the states like Florida and Texas who opened up in May and are just as of 2 weeks ago hospitals starting filling. Now last week deaths began to spike in Texas.Houhusky said:
Hospitalizations a lagging indicator of what? The ICU census and confirmed cases were highly coupled until the beginning of June, about 1 month ago.MelloDawg said:
Do you think that hospitalizations are a lagging indicator? In other words, as the cases increase, do you think that hospitalizations will as well? Seems to be a logical progression. I do know that hospitals in hot spots such as Houston are full to the point where they're booking adults into children's hospitals because the regular ones can't accommodate them.HoustonHusky said:
What does running short of PPE have anything to do with the relatively low numbers of Covid patients in hospital beds?Dugdawg said:Youre full of shit. Washington clinics are already starting to run short of PPE again.
Obviously, at this point, people are entrenched in their beliefs that COVID is either a big deal or it's not, no amount of data is going to convince one side either way. If hospitalizations go up, I don't imagine that'll move the needle for those who think COVID is exaggerated.
As far as Houston or hospital capacity.... The rumors of the overflowing cordwood hospitals seem exaggerated...
http://memorialhermann.org/news/joint-statement-from-st--luke%E2%80%99s-health,-houston-methodist,-memorial-hermann-health-system---texas-children%E2%80%99s-hospital-regarding-houston-hospital-capacity-and-executive-order/
"we want to reassure the public that this pandemic is not eclipsing our capabilities. Our hospitals have the ICU capacity, staff and supplies to meet the healthcare needs of our community. In addition, Texas hospitals continue to reserve 15 percent of capacity for COVID-19 patients and medical care continues to be routinely provided in inpatient and outpatient settings without taxing the overall hospitalization capacity."
Likewise Texas Medical official publication from yesterday showed plenty of manageable capacity available... The vast majority of the ICU beds are occupied by non Covid patients and "can be managed by appropriately transferring patients from ICU to medical/surgical beds"
https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/overview-of-tmc-icu-bed-capacity-and-occupancy/
Compare that to states like California and Washington who opened up a month later but are still seeing an increase, they are simply a month behind but are on the same path if they don't turn it around. Remember the first confirmed case in Washington was January 22 and it took more than a month for a death to occur.
This all happens on a timeline.
The CDC, on their website, states the median time from exposure to symptom is 4-5 days
its been 49 days since Memorial day
You have no fucking clue what you are talking about...
and even with that 4-5 day window which is too short and likely a result of a lack of testing not catching cases as early back in March as they do now, there is still a massive reporting delay on deaths and hospitalizations.
Google doesn't show NJ numbers but they have had 15k deaths. Yet the narrative is that these places are at the same level as NY and NJ when that is far from the truth. -
no one expects anywhere to hit the daily numbers of New York. What is more likely is that deaths never spike significantly in FL, TX, etc. but instead just X number of people continue to die every day for far too long and that continues until the end of the calendar year with a fuck ton of unnecessary deaths. Just a slow fall that continues on and on.
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You do know that the country can't pay for 46 million people who are out of work for much longer. My suggestion is that you could make some real progress if you took some basic math and economics.
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do you have anything except for presenting this false dichotomy? Plenty of countries and states who are in partial shutdowns, if not fully open, are controlling the virus. If you close super spreaders like bars, restaurants and movie theatres (which Newsom just did) most retail and recreation can be safe.WestlinnDuck said:You do know that the country can't pay for 46 million people who are out of work for much longer. My suggestion is that you could make some real progress if you took some basic math and economics.
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I live in Oregon. Restaurants are open. Don't seem to be a super spreader. If you are scared, stay home. Just don't play super spreader tennis.
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yes because Oregon suppressed the virus to where they were able to reopen with few restrictions and haven't had problems. Same thing is happening in the Northeast. This is not a point in favor of your safety-economy false choice.WestlinnDuck said:I live in Oregon. Restaurants are open. Don't seem to be a super spreader. If you are scared, stay home. Just don't play super spreader tennis.
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I'd rather be in charge of my life than have some feckless beta male like yourself telling me how to live it. That's the difference between me and you. Your like the dazzler and want everyone hiding in their basement. Open it up. And for god's sake don't tell me how much you need to raise my taxes to pay for your decisions.
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The northeast did nothing positive to help anyone.
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What specific day will the bodies be there, and if they aren’t, then what?incremetal_progress said:
yes because Oregon suppressed the virus to where they were able to reopen with few restrictions and haven't had problems. Same thing is happening in the Northeast. This is not a point in favor of your safety-economy false choice.WestlinnDuck said:I live in Oregon. Restaurants are open. Don't seem to be a super spreader. If you are scared, stay home. Just don't play super spreader tennis.
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The initial proposal in March was always flatten the curve, 60% of the population was eventually going to get it no matter what we did. That’s what was sold by everyone, indisputable. Same area under the parabola just spread out over more time. What happened to that? I could see the argument to change policy and prevent total infections, regardless of when they occurred, if the death rate was increasing, but we all know it’s done the opposite. Chasing no infections is a losing battle, fought by losers.incremetal_progress said:
do you have anything except for presenting this false dichotomy? Plenty of countries and states who are in partial shutdowns, if not fully open, are controlling the virus. If you close super spreaders like bars, restaurants and movie theatres (which Newsom just did) most retail and recreation can be safe.WestlinnDuck said:You do know that the country can't pay for 46 million people who are out of work for much longer. My suggestion is that you could make some real progress if you took some basic math and economics.
No losers can answer that question, neither can you. -
Jesus will return September 15th
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I'm here my son.RaceBannon said:Jesus will return September 15th
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No masks but still won’t spread WuFlu because Science.
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And arson and theft.NorthwestFresh said: -
Maybe they were trying to burn everything down to kill the virus. You ever think of that?
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incremetal_progress said:
Hospital lags behind the mass transmission that has occurred since memorial day. Look at the states like Florida and Texas who opened up in May and are just as of 2 weeks ago hospitals starting filling. Now last week deaths began to spike in Texas.Houhusky said:
Hospitalizations a lagging indicator of what? The ICU census and confirmed cases were highly coupled until the beginning of June, about 1 month ago.MelloDawg said:
Do you think that hospitalizations are a lagging indicator? In other words, as the cases increase, do you think that hospitalizations will as well? Seems to be a logical progression. I do know that hospitals in hot spots such as Houston are full to the point where they're booking adults into children's hospitals because the regular ones can't accommodate them.HoustonHusky said:
What does running short of PPE have anything to do with the relatively low numbers of Covid patients in hospital beds?Dugdawg said:Youre full of shit. Washington clinics are already starting to run short of PPE again.
Obviously, at this point, people are entrenched in their beliefs that COVID is either a big deal or it's not, no amount of data is going to convince one side either way. If hospitalizations go up, I don't imagine that'll move the needle for those who think COVID is exaggerated.
As far as Houston or hospital capacity.... The rumors of the overflowing cordwood hospitals seem exaggerated...
http://memorialhermann.org/news/joint-statement-from-st--luke%E2%80%99s-health,-houston-methodist,-memorial-hermann-health-system---texas-children%E2%80%99s-hospital-regarding-houston-hospital-capacity-and-executive-order/
"we want to reassure the public that this pandemic is not eclipsing our capabilities. Our hospitals have the ICU capacity, staff and supplies to meet the healthcare needs of our community. In addition, Texas hospitals continue to reserve 15 percent of capacity for COVID-19 patients and medical care continues to be routinely provided in inpatient and outpatient settings without taxing the overall hospitalization capacity."
Likewise Texas Medical official publication from yesterday showed plenty of manageable capacity available... The vast majority of the ICU beds are occupied by non Covid patients and "can be managed by appropriately transferring patients from ICU to medical/surgical beds"
https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/overview-of-tmc-icu-bed-capacity-and-occupancy/
Compare that to states like California and Washington who opened up a month later but are still seeing an increase, they are simply a month behind but are on the same path if they don't turn it around. Remember the first confirmed case in Washington was January 22 and it took more than a month for a death to occur.
This all happens on a timeline.
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You've got AOC down to a science.HoustonHusky said:Maybe they were trying to burn everything down to kill the virus. You ever think of that?
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BOOM!Houhusky said:
Hospitalization data does not lag from the cases data... You wont find a study saying so, symptom onset after exposure isnt long enough to create a noticeable lag in the data and viral shedding can occur 14-20 days even after hospitalization. The data decoupled from the well established ratios for the first 6 months due to changes in testing and classification.incremetal_progress said:
Cases skyrocketed in Texas, Arizona, and Florida, then hospitalizations began to skyrocket, now deaths are going up in all three states. I don't see why these trends won't all continue.Houhusky said:
There is no "lag" between the confirmed case data and hospitalization data. There wasn't for the first 6 months of the "mass transmission"incremetal_progress said:
Hospital lags behind the mass transmission that has occurred since memorial day. Look at the states like Florida and Texas who opened up in May and are just as of 2 weeks ago hospitals starting filling. Now last week deaths began to spike in Texas.Houhusky said:
Hospitalizations a lagging indicator of what? The ICU census and confirmed cases were highly coupled until the beginning of June, about 1 month ago.MelloDawg said:
Do you think that hospitalizations are a lagging indicator? In other words, as the cases increase, do you think that hospitalizations will as well? Seems to be a logical progression. I do know that hospitals in hot spots such as Houston are full to the point where they're booking adults into children's hospitals because the regular ones can't accommodate them.HoustonHusky said:
What does running short of PPE have anything to do with the relatively low numbers of Covid patients in hospital beds?Dugdawg said:Youre full of shit. Washington clinics are already starting to run short of PPE again.
Obviously, at this point, people are entrenched in their beliefs that COVID is either a big deal or it's not, no amount of data is going to convince one side either way. If hospitalizations go up, I don't imagine that'll move the needle for those who think COVID is exaggerated.
As far as Houston or hospital capacity.... The rumors of the overflowing cordwood hospitals seem exaggerated...
http://memorialhermann.org/news/joint-statement-from-st--luke%E2%80%99s-health,-houston-methodist,-memorial-hermann-health-system---texas-children%E2%80%99s-hospital-regarding-houston-hospital-capacity-and-executive-order/
"we want to reassure the public that this pandemic is not eclipsing our capabilities. Our hospitals have the ICU capacity, staff and supplies to meet the healthcare needs of our community. In addition, Texas hospitals continue to reserve 15 percent of capacity for COVID-19 patients and medical care continues to be routinely provided in inpatient and outpatient settings without taxing the overall hospitalization capacity."
Likewise Texas Medical official publication from yesterday showed plenty of manageable capacity available... The vast majority of the ICU beds are occupied by non Covid patients and "can be managed by appropriately transferring patients from ICU to medical/surgical beds"
https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/overview-of-tmc-icu-bed-capacity-and-occupancy/
Compare that to states like California and Washington who opened up a month later but are still seeing an increase, they are simply a month behind but are on the same path if they don't turn it around. Remember the first confirmed case in Washington was January 22 and it took more than a month for a death to occur.
This all happens on a timeline.
The CDC, on their website, states the median time from exposure to symptom is 4-5 days
its been 49 days since Memorial day
You have no fucking clue what you are talking about...
and even with that 4-5 day window which is too short and likely a result of a lack of testing not catching cases as early back in March as they do now, there is still a massive reporting delay on deaths and hospitalizations.
Confirmed cases has always been such a massive undercount it isnt reflective of actual infections in the population.
Total Hospital census is highly effected by dwell time and isn't reflective of infection severity or prevalence in the population.
I cant imagine why you are trying to disagree with actual CDC and medical studies...
the median exposure to symptom onset is 4-5 days
science denier or science illiterate
