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HHusky
HHusky Member Posts: 23,973
https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-kills-more-americans-in-one-month-than-the-flu-kills-in-one-year/

Although there is still much we don’t know about the coronavirus, we know enough to say that it is far more dangerous and deadly than the flu. It took twelve months and 61 million infections for the H1N1 swine flu to kill 12,500 Americans in 2009–10. The Centers for Disease Control estimated that the seasonal flu killed 34,200 Americans during the 2018–19 flu season. In 2019, car crashes killed 38,800 Americans.

As for the new coronavirus? On March 20, the death toll in the United States was 225. By April 20, the coronavirus had killed more than 42,000 Americans.
[over 45,000 now]

. . .

Despite the rapidity with which the coronavirus has killed tens of thousands of Americans, some on the right have continued to argue that the pandemic will end up being no more serious than a bad flu season. On Fox News last week, Bill Bennett said that “we’re going to have fewer fatalities from this than from the flu.” He pointed to the fact that the IMHE model from the University of Washington estimated that COVID-19 would most likely kill about 60,000 Americans and that the seasonal flu killed 61,000 Americans in 2017–18, a particularly bad flu season.

But as Rich Lowry pointed out last week, “if we are going to have 60,000 deaths with people not leaving their homes for more than a month, the number of deaths obviously would have been higher — much higher — if everyone had gone about business as usual.” Indeed, the IMHE model is making an estimate of the death toll only for a first wave of infections, and most of the country will still be vulnerable to infection after the first wave passes.

While there are 800,000 confirmed coronavirus cases in the United States — that’s 0.24 percent of the U.S. population — former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb has noted that anywhere between 1 percent and 5 percent of Americans may have actually already been infected with the virus. But that’s far short of the 50 percent to 70 percent required to achieve herd immunity. The seasonal flu, by contrast, infected 12 percent of the American population last year because we have a flu vaccine and some more immunity from previous infections.
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Comments

  • HHusky
    HHusky Member Posts: 23,973
    edited April 2020
    Have the courage of your convictions and take a midnight train to Georgia, Race.

    (L.A. proved too much for the man.)
  • HHusky
    HHusky Member Posts: 23,973
    edited April 2020

    HHusky said:


    While there are 800,000 confirmed coronavirus cases in the United States — that’s 0.24 percent of the U.S. population — former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb has noted that anywhere between 1 percent and 5 percent of Americans may have actually already been infected with the virus. But that’s far short of the 50 percent to 70 percent required to achieve herd immunity. The seasonal flu, by contrast, infected 12 percent of the American population last year because we have a flu vaccine and some more immunity from previous infections.

    So weº sit here in isolation, at a 45 points below what's required for herd immunity, with no vaccine in sight, going broke until the food runs out.
    There's a list of essential services. Food production and distribution is on it.
  • HHusky
    HHusky Member Posts: 23,973

    HHusky said:

    HHusky said:


    While there are 800,000 confirmed coronavirus cases in the United States — that’s 0.24 percent of the U.S. population — former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb has noted that anywhere between 1 percent and 5 percent of Americans may have actually already been infected with the virus. But that’s far short of the 50 percent to 70 percent required to achieve herd immunity. The seasonal flu, by contrast, infected 12 percent of the American population last year because we have a flu vaccine and some more immunity from previous infections.

    So weº sit here in isolation, at a 45 points below what's required for herd immunity, with no vaccine in sight, going broke until the food runs out.
    There's a list of essential services. Food production is on it.
    Good to know that agricultural conscription is on the table.
    If only there was somewhere we could get labor for our farms.
  • RaceBannon
    RaceBannon Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 114,111 Founders Club
    HHusky said:

    Have the courage of your convictions and take a midnight train to Georgia, Race.

    (L.A. proved too much for the man.)

    We're starting back next week in California where Covid isnt even as bad as the flu

    Hide under the bed
  • HHusky
    HHusky Member Posts: 23,973

    HHusky said:

    HHusky said:


    While there are 800,000 confirmed coronavirus cases in the United States — that’s 0.24 percent of the U.S. population — former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb has noted that anywhere between 1 percent and 5 percent of Americans may have actually already been infected with the virus. But that’s far short of the 50 percent to 70 percent required to achieve herd immunity. The seasonal flu, by contrast, infected 12 percent of the American population last year because we have a flu vaccine and some more immunity from previous infections.

    So weº sit here in isolation, at a 45 points below what's required for herd immunity, with no vaccine in sight, going broke until the food runs out.
    There's a list of essential services. Food production is on it.
    It's not working


    Millions out of work because you're a pussy still clinging to bad math

    2 million dead!

    200,000 dead!

    Fuck off
    We'd easily hit 200,000 dead if you had your way. As it is, if deaths don't decline pretty damn soon, we'll hit that optimistic 60,000 figure by May 1.
  • GrundleStiltzkin
    GrundleStiltzkin Member Posts: 61,516 Standard Supporter
    HHusky said:

    HHusky said:

    HHusky said:


    While there are 800,000 confirmed coronavirus cases in the United States — that’s 0.24 percent of the U.S. population — former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb has noted that anywhere between 1 percent and 5 percent of Americans may have actually already been infected with the virus. But that’s far short of the 50 percent to 70 percent required to achieve herd immunity. The seasonal flu, by contrast, infected 12 percent of the American population last year because we have a flu vaccine and some more immunity from previous infections.

    So weº sit here in isolation, at a 45 points below what's required for herd immunity, with no vaccine in sight, going broke until the food runs out.
    There's a list of essential services. Food production is on it.
    Good to know that agricultural conscription is on the table.
    If only there was somewhere we could get labor for our farms.
    https://www.wsj.com/podcasts/why-farmers-are-breaking-eggs-and-dumping-milk/0AE090E3-2635-4E6A-A44F-7C6BE3DF75E0.html
  • RaceBannon
    RaceBannon Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 114,111 Founders Club
    HHusky said:

    HHusky said:

    HHusky said:


    While there are 800,000 confirmed coronavirus cases in the United States — that’s 0.24 percent of the U.S. population — former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb has noted that anywhere between 1 percent and 5 percent of Americans may have actually already been infected with the virus. But that’s far short of the 50 percent to 70 percent required to achieve herd immunity. The seasonal flu, by contrast, infected 12 percent of the American population last year because we have a flu vaccine and some more immunity from previous infections.

    So weº sit here in isolation, at a 45 points below what's required for herd immunity, with no vaccine in sight, going broke until the food runs out.
    There's a list of essential services. Food production is on it.
    It's not working


    Millions out of work because you're a pussy still clinging to bad math

    2 million dead!

    200,000 dead!

    Fuck off
    We'd easily hit 200,000 dead if you had your way. As it is, if deaths don't decline pretty damn soon, we'll hit that optimistic 60,000 figure by May 1.
    But Trump didn't act and has blood on his hands!!!!!

    Or Trump saved millions of lives by acting

    What are we going with???

    60k is a bad flu season Nancy
  • HHusky
    HHusky Member Posts: 23,973

    HHusky said:

    HHusky said:

    HHusky said:


    While there are 800,000 confirmed coronavirus cases in the United States — that’s 0.24 percent of the U.S. population — former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb has noted that anywhere between 1 percent and 5 percent of Americans may have actually already been infected with the virus. But that’s far short of the 50 percent to 70 percent required to achieve herd immunity. The seasonal flu, by contrast, infected 12 percent of the American population last year because we have a flu vaccine and some more immunity from previous infections.

    So weº sit here in isolation, at a 45 points below what's required for herd immunity, with no vaccine in sight, going broke until the food runs out.
    There's a list of essential services. Food production is on it.
    It's not working


    Millions out of work because you're a pussy still clinging to bad math

    2 million dead!

    200,000 dead!

    Fuck off
    We'd easily hit 200,000 dead if you had your way. As it is, if deaths don't decline pretty damn soon, we'll hit that optimistic 60,000 figure by May 1.
    But Trump didn't act and has blood on his hands!!!!!

    Or Trump saved millions of lives by acting

    What are we going with???

    60k is a bad flu season Nancy
    This didn't replace the flu, Mabel. It's in addition to the flu. And 60,000 won't be the end of it.
  • HHusky
    HHusky Member Posts: 23,973
    edited April 2020
    SFGbob said:

    I guess we should be happy that H didn't compare black people to monkeys in this thread, so in a sense this is small step in the right direction.

    This irony won’t be lost on veterans of the Shed.
  • incremetal_progress
    incremetal_progress Member Posts: 358
    edited April 2020
    not to mention a healthcare system where insurance is tied to employment. 20 million lose their job, 20 million lose their health insurance. Yet nobody is proposing anything to fix that either.

    It's almost like the virus is exposing all of the problems that already existed.

    I disagree with the protesters, but if they are angry they have a right to be.
  • HHusky
    HHusky Member Posts: 23,973

    HHusky said:

    HHusky said:

    HHusky said:


    While there are 800,000 confirmed coronavirus cases in the United States — that’s 0.24 percent of the U.S. population — former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb has noted that anywhere between 1 percent and 5 percent of Americans may have actually already been infected with the virus. But that’s far short of the 50 percent to 70 percent required to achieve herd immunity. The seasonal flu, by contrast, infected 12 percent of the American population last year because we have a flu vaccine and some more immunity from previous infections.

    So weº sit here in isolation, at a 45 points below what's required for herd immunity, with no vaccine in sight, going broke until the food runs out.
    There's a list of essential services. Food production is on it.
    It's not working


    Millions out of work because you're a pussy still clinging to bad math

    2 million dead!

    200,000 dead!

    Fuck off
    We'd easily hit 200,000 dead if you had your way. As it is, if deaths don't decline pretty damn soon, we'll hit that optimistic 60,000 figure by May 1.
    You sound like a Cuog crying about "if only it hadn't snowed, we'd have won", dazzler.
    I think my 100,000 number by the end of the year is looking pretty likely, though perhaps overly optimistic. Maybe you meant we’d have 5,000 dead if it hadn’t snowed?
  • PurpleThrobber
    PurpleThrobber Member Posts: 48,123 Standard Supporter
    HHusky said:

    HHusky said:

    HHusky said:

    HHusky said:


    While there are 800,000 confirmed coronavirus cases in the United States — that’s 0.24 percent of the U.S. population — former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb has noted that anywhere between 1 percent and 5 percent of Americans may have actually already been infected with the virus. But that’s far short of the 50 percent to 70 percent required to achieve herd immunity. The seasonal flu, by contrast, infected 12 percent of the American population last year because we have a flu vaccine and some more immunity from previous infections.

    So weº sit here in isolation, at a 45 points below what's required for herd immunity, with no vaccine in sight, going broke until the food runs out.
    There's a list of essential services. Food production is on it.
    It's not working


    Millions out of work because you're a pussy still clinging to bad math

    2 million dead!

    200,000 dead!

    Fuck off
    We'd easily hit 200,000 dead if you had your way. As it is, if deaths don't decline pretty damn soon, we'll hit that optimistic 60,000 figure by May 1.
    You sound like a Cuog crying about "if only it hadn't snowed, we'd have won", dazzler.
    I think my 100,000 number by the end of the year is looking pretty likely, though perhaps overly optimistic. Maybe you meant we’d have 5,000 dead if it hadn’t snowed?
    You still don't get the house setting the opening line. It's a maff thing, dazzler.
  • HHusky
    HHusky Member Posts: 23,973
    edited April 2020

    HHusky said:

    HHusky said:

    HHusky said:

    HHusky said:


    While there are 800,000 confirmed coronavirus cases in the United States — that’s 0.24 percent of the U.S. population — former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb has noted that anywhere between 1 percent and 5 percent of Americans may have actually already been infected with the virus. But that’s far short of the 50 percent to 70 percent required to achieve herd immunity. The seasonal flu, by contrast, infected 12 percent of the American population last year because we have a flu vaccine and some more immunity from previous infections.

    So weº sit here in isolation, at a 45 points below what's required for herd immunity, with no vaccine in sight, going broke until the food runs out.
    There's a list of essential services. Food production is on it.
    It's not working


    Millions out of work because you're a pussy still clinging to bad math

    2 million dead!

    200,000 dead!

    Fuck off
    We'd easily hit 200,000 dead if you had your way. As it is, if deaths don't decline pretty damn soon, we'll hit that optimistic 60,000 figure by May 1.
    You sound like a Cuog crying about "if only it hadn't snowed, we'd have won", dazzler.
    I think my 100,000 number by the end of the year is looking pretty likely, though perhaps overly optimistic. Maybe you meant we’d have 5,000 dead if it hadn’t snowed?
    Good job, H. The reality is it won't matter how many die if the result of all of these measures is we plunge into a big depression. That will be far worse than 100,000 dead as it will literally affect everyone. This is why we have to take somewhat, or maybe not, risky steps to get the economy going. There are no absolutes. Everything is a tradeoff. Beware of anyone speaking in absolutes.

    State and Local authorities need to manage the reopening with precision and specificity driven by their local conditions. State level and US level mandates are what got us where we are. When this step happens, we will see the light at the end of the tunnel miles away.
    I pretty much agree with you. To have undergone this economic damage only to be forced to shut it all down again would REALLY be a disaster. The calculated course you describe is what we need, including calculated risks.
  • YellowSnow
    YellowSnow Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 37,318 Founders Club

    HHusky said:

    HHusky said:

    HHusky said:

    HHusky said:


    While there are 800,000 confirmed coronavirus cases in the United States — that’s 0.24 percent of the U.S. population — former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb has noted that anywhere between 1 percent and 5 percent of Americans may have actually already been infected with the virus. But that’s far short of the 50 percent to 70 percent required to achieve herd immunity. The seasonal flu, by contrast, infected 12 percent of the American population last year because we have a flu vaccine and some more immunity from previous infections.

    So weº sit here in isolation, at a 45 points below what's required for herd immunity, with no vaccine in sight, going broke until the food runs out.
    There's a list of essential services. Food production is on it.
    It's not working


    Millions out of work because you're a pussy still clinging to bad math

    2 million dead!

    200,000 dead!

    Fuck off
    We'd easily hit 200,000 dead if you had your way. As it is, if deaths don't decline pretty damn soon, we'll hit that optimistic 60,000 figure by May 1.
    You sound like a Cuog crying about "if only it hadn't snowed, we'd have won", dazzler.
    I think my 100,000 number by the end of the year is looking pretty likely, though perhaps overly optimistic. Maybe you meant we’d have 5,000 dead if it hadn’t snowed?
    You still don't get the house setting the opening line. It's a maff thing, dazzler.
    I never saw the new over and under from the Throbber Casino.
  • PurpleThrobber
    PurpleThrobber Member Posts: 48,123 Standard Supporter
    edited April 2020

    HHusky said:

    HHusky said:

    HHusky said:

    HHusky said:


    While there are 800,000 confirmed coronavirus cases in the United States — that’s 0.24 percent of the U.S. population — former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb has noted that anywhere between 1 percent and 5 percent of Americans may have actually already been infected with the virus. But that’s far short of the 50 percent to 70 percent required to achieve herd immunity. The seasonal flu, by contrast, infected 12 percent of the American population last year because we have a flu vaccine and some more immunity from previous infections.

    So weº sit here in isolation, at a 45 points below what's required for herd immunity, with no vaccine in sight, going broke until the food runs out.
    There's a list of essential services. Food production is on it.
    It's not working


    Millions out of work because you're a pussy still clinging to bad math

    2 million dead!

    200,000 dead!

    Fuck off
    We'd easily hit 200,000 dead if you had your way. As it is, if deaths don't decline pretty damn soon, we'll hit that optimistic 60,000 figure by May 1.
    You sound like a Cuog crying about "if only it hadn't snowed, we'd have won", dazzler.
    I think my 100,000 number by the end of the year is looking pretty likely, though perhaps overly optimistic. Maybe you meant we’d have 5,000 dead if it hadn’t snowed?
    You still don't get the house setting the opening line. It's a maff thing, dazzler.
    I never saw the new over and under from the Throbber Casino.
    When it became apparent the scorekeepers are on the take, the house pulled the line.

    How many people normally die in a given year in the US?

    That's the unofficial line now.

  • HHusky
    HHusky Member Posts: 23,973

    HHusky said:

    HHusky said:

    HHusky said:

    HHusky said:

    HHusky said:


    While there are 800,000 confirmed coronavirus cases in the United States — that’s 0.24 percent of the U.S. population — former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb has noted that anywhere between 1 percent and 5 percent of Americans may have actually already been infected with the virus. But that’s far short of the 50 percent to 70 percent required to achieve herd immunity. The seasonal flu, by contrast, infected 12 percent of the American population last year because we have a flu vaccine and some more immunity from previous infections.

    So weº sit here in isolation, at a 45 points below what's required for herd immunity, with no vaccine in sight, going broke until the food runs out.
    There's a list of essential services. Food production is on it.
    It's not working


    Millions out of work because you're a pussy still clinging to bad math

    2 million dead!

    200,000 dead!

    Fuck off
    We'd easily hit 200,000 dead if you had your way. As it is, if deaths don't decline pretty damn soon, we'll hit that optimistic 60,000 figure by May 1.
    You sound like a Cuog crying about "if only it hadn't snowed, we'd have won", dazzler.
    I think my 100,000 number by the end of the year is looking pretty likely, though perhaps overly optimistic. Maybe you meant we’d have 5,000 dead if it hadn’t snowed?
    Good job, H. The reality is it won't matter how many die if the result of all of these measures is we plunge into a big depression. That will be far worse than 100,000 dead as it will literally affect everyone. This is why we have to take somewhat, or maybe not, risky steps to get the economy going. There are no absolutes. Everything is a tradeoff. Beware of anyone speaking in absolutes.

    State and Local authorities need to manage the reopening with precision and specificity driven by their local conditions. State level and US level mandates are what got us where we are. When this step happens, we will see the light at the end of the tunnel miles away.
    I pretty much agree with you. To have undergone this economic damage only to be forced to shut it all down again would REALLY be a disaster. The calculated course you describe is what we need, including calculated risks.
    You are so gay
    And?
  • MikeDamone
    MikeDamone Member Posts: 37,781
    HHusky said:

    HHusky said:

    HHusky said:


    While there are 800,000 confirmed coronavirus cases in the United States — that’s 0.24 percent of the U.S. population — former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb has noted that anywhere between 1 percent and 5 percent of Americans may have actually already been infected with the virus. But that’s far short of the 50 percent to 70 percent required to achieve herd immunity. The seasonal flu, by contrast, infected 12 percent of the American population last year because we have a flu vaccine and some more immunity from previous infections.

    So weº sit here in isolation, at a 45 points below what's required for herd immunity, with no vaccine in sight, going broke until the food runs out.
    There's a list of essential services. Food production is on it.
    It's not working


    Millions out of work because you're a pussy still clinging to bad math

    2 million dead!

    200,000 dead!

    Fuck off
    We'd easily hit 200,000 dead if you had your way. As it is, if deaths don't decline pretty damn soon, we'll hit that optimistic 60,000 figure by May 1.
    If I had my way we’d have 200,000 dead and 339,800,000 more not at risk of dying from poverty, suicide, cancer, heart attacks, and homicidal violence.
  • YellowSnow
    YellowSnow Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 37,318 Founders Club

    HHusky said:

    HHusky said:

    HHusky said:


    While there are 800,000 confirmed coronavirus cases in the United States — that’s 0.24 percent of the U.S. population — former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb has noted that anywhere between 1 percent and 5 percent of Americans may have actually already been infected with the virus. But that’s far short of the 50 percent to 70 percent required to achieve herd immunity. The seasonal flu, by contrast, infected 12 percent of the American population last year because we have a flu vaccine and some more immunity from previous infections.

    So weº sit here in isolation, at a 45 points below what's required for herd immunity, with no vaccine in sight, going broke until the food runs out.
    There's a list of essential services. Food production is on it.
    It's not working


    Millions out of work because you're a pussy still clinging to bad math

    2 million dead!

    200,000 dead!

    Fuck off
    We'd easily hit 200,000 dead if you had your way. As it is, if deaths don't decline pretty damn soon, we'll hit that optimistic 60,000 figure by May 1.
    If I had my way we’d have 200,000 dead and 339,800,000 more not at risk of dying from poverty, suicide, cancer, heart attacks, and homicidal violence.
    It’s a grim choice, but the morally acceptable option is obvious.