1. Shut down for another month or two, basically until the hospitals have enough equipment and people are used to washing hands and not breathing down each other's necks. 2. Start opening most services again with the caveat that old people like Race need to know they will have a high chance of getting fucked up if they catch it 3. Slowly build up herd immunity through the people that aren't old and frail until a vaccine is ready
The world won't be able to afford to stay shut down through even the summer. No way we make it until a vaccine is available. These next couple months are here to ensure we have as many ICU beds and ventilators in place as possible.
We basically try to limit exposure as much as you can while trying to act normal until either 70% of the population has caught it or there is a vaccine.
What are your thoughts on NCAA football playoff? How would you do it?
1. Shut down for another month or two, basically until the hospitals have enough equipment and people are used to washing hands and not breathing down each other's necks. 2. Start opening most services again with the caveat that old people like Race need to know they will have a high chance of getting fucked up if they catch it 3. Slowly build up herd immunity through the people that aren't old and frail until a vaccine is ready
The world won't be able to afford to stay shut down through even the summer. No way we make it until a vaccine is available. These next couple months are here to ensure we have as many ICU beds and ventilators in place as possible.
We basically try to limit exposure as much as you can while trying to act normal until either 70% of the population has caught it or there is a vaccine.
What are your thoughts on NCAA football playoff? How would you do it?
1. Shut down for another month or two, basically until the hospitals have enough equipment and people are used to washing hands and not breathing down each other's necks. 2. Start opening most services again with the caveat that old people like Race need to know they will have a high chance of getting fucked up if they catch it 3. Slowly build up herd immunity through the people that aren't old and frail until a vaccine is ready
The world won't be able to afford to stay shut down through even the summer. No way we make it until a vaccine is available. These next couple months are here to ensure we have as many ICU beds and ventilators in place as possible. the government has permanently altered our society and finished the job the patriot act couldn’t accomplish.
We basically try to limit exposure as much as you can while trying to act normal until either 70% of the population has caught it or there is a vaccine.
How many millions of job losses are acceptable to save 100,000 lives?
Where do you get the idea that "only" an extra 100,000 people will die if we just operate normally?
Where do you get the idea that they won't?
You want to shut it down again you need to prove it. Not theorize about it
Every model I've seen says millions of deaths if we do nothing. I know you guys hate expertise.
The only model developed by "experts" I have seen that is currently being used to drive policy has been wildly off the mark in terms of death rates and hospitalizations.
I have seen plenty of models that predict increases in death rates as a result of unemployment.
How many millions of job losses are acceptable to save 100,000 lives?
Where do you get the idea that "only" an extra 100,000 people will die if we just operate normally?
Where do you get the idea that they won't?
You want to shut it down again you need to prove it. Not theorize about it
Every model I've seen says millions of deaths if we do nothing. I know you guys hate expertise.
The only model developed by "experts" I have seen that is currently being used to drive policy has been wildly off the mark in terms of death rates and hospitalizations.
I have seen plenty of models that predict increases in death rates as a result of unemployment.
Economists are predicting a roughly 10-fold increase in unemployment due to our lockdown measures, to around 32%. That's higher than in the Great Depression.
If that type of unemployment level is sustained, we could be looking at deaths in the 1.8 million range for Americans as a result of the economic consequences of the lockdown decisions being made for us, without our consultation.
At a "mere" 5% increase in unemployment, we'd been looking at ~294,000 extra deaths as a result of lockdown. That's a low figure at this point.
A middle-ground increase of 16% to 17% (for a total of about 20%), would be around ~970,000 extra deaths as a result of lockdown.
Those who would be most at-risk from economic-induced deaths would be people age 18 to 34, and of those, particularly men. Also, people who are early or in the middle of their careers would be most affected. The elderly population, not as much.
In addition to the other lasting knock-on effects of a possible (probable) Second Great Depression, the deaths and demographic crunch will vastly change the American landscape, particularly in terms of overall life expectancy.
I think there has to be a middle ground between ~294,000 and 1.8 million economic-induced deaths and a severe setback in national life expectancy, versus the coronavirus projections (not well understood at this point, and which would impact life expectancy very little).
How many millions of job losses are acceptable to save 100,000 lives?
Biden says not one life if worth losing to help the economy. Zero is the bar.
“Let me be very clear: No one is expendable. No matter your age, race, gender, religion, ethnicity, sexual orientation, or disability. No life is worth losing to add one more point to the Dow.”
How many millions of job losses are acceptable to save 100,000 lives?
Biden says not one life if worth losing to help the economy. Zero is the bar.
“Let me be very clear: No one is expendable. No matter your age, race, gender, religion, ethnicity, sexual orientation, or disability. No life is worth losing to add one more point to the Dow.”
We've got one of my bosses regular bartenders putting in orders for our mask company
1. Shut down for another month or two, basically until the hospitals have enough equipment and people are used to washing hands and not breathing down each other's necks. 2. Start opening most services again with the caveat that old people like Race need to know they will have a high chance of getting fucked up if they catch it 3. Slowly build up herd immunity through the people that aren't old and frail until a vaccine is ready
The world won't be able to afford to stay shut down through even the summer. No way we make it until a vaccine is available. These next couple months are here to ensure we have as many ICU beds and ventilators in place as possible.
We basically try to limit exposure as much as you can while trying to act normal until either 70% of the population has caught it or there is a vaccine.
Each delay means less opens back up. A lot of those doors are staying closed. Furthermore, the fear quotient has been raised so astronomically. What I don't know is which fear will hold the day: disease, or financial ruin.
Old people like me are telling you youngsters to stop being pussies
You don't get it. We are setting up a "model" where no elected leader will ever have the GUTS to not shut it down at the first panic and bullshit model
1. Shut down for another month or two, basically until the hospitals have enough equipment and people are used to washing hands and not breathing down each other's necks. 2. Start opening most services again with the caveat that old people like Race need to know they will have a high chance of getting fucked up if they catch it 3. Slowly build up herd immunity through the people that aren't old and frail until a vaccine is ready
The world won't be able to afford to stay shut down through even the summer. No way we make it until a vaccine is available. These next couple months are here to ensure we have as many ICU beds and ventilators in place as possible.
We basically try to limit exposure as much as you can while trying to act normal until either 70% of the population has caught it or there is a vaccine.
The worst thing we can do is have monolithic policy. So sad, too bad for the tri state area and other areas that are over 2,000 miles away from me. But they don't affect me. At all.
Oregon is a month into this thing and has 19 deaths, with an average age of 80 plus. We had 46 new cases yesterday. They say that when you've had it for 14 days and show no symptoms that you are recovered and have no contagion. So given that, Oregon very well may have had negative active cases yesterday from Tuesday.
But guess what.... We'll never know. Because Oregon doesn't track recoveries. Once you get it, the only way to be removed from the active case list is to die.
And I believe that is the same across the country.
So people see New York and their states active cases increase everyday and the deaths, but they will never be shown the high recovery rates.
That people is where the control and the corruption is self evident.
Because of the media and politicians, we have Karen's, here in Oregon yelling at passing cars because theyre not in quarantine. When the reality is that Oregon has probably already topped out.
And those same Karens are demanding our bars and restaurants be extended to be closed after April 15th, when we may have been on the down hill slide for two weeks.
Comments
I have seen plenty of models that predict increases in death rates as a result of unemployment.
@arabbitorduck
·
Mar 31
[thread] 1 of 10
How much will the economic-induced death toll be for the sustained lockdown suicide pact into which we've been involuntarily entered?
Scaled for today's population, each 1% increase in unemployment would cost us ~60,000 extra lives: https://sci-hub.tw/https://doi.org/10.1177/003232927600600408
Being unemployed contributes to a 63% increase in the chance of dying: https://sci-hub.tw/10.1016/j.socscimed.2011.01.005
Economists are predicting a roughly 10-fold increase in unemployment due to our lockdown measures, to around 32%. That's higher than in the Great Depression.
Coronavirus job losses could total 47 million, unemployment rate may hit 32%, Fed estimates
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/coronavirus-job-losses-could-total-47-million-unemployment-rate-of-32percent-fed-says.html
If that type of unemployment level is sustained, we could be looking at deaths in the 1.8 million range for Americans as a result of the economic consequences of the lockdown decisions being made for us, without our consultation.
At a "mere" 5% increase in unemployment, we'd been looking at ~294,000 extra deaths as a result of lockdown. That's a low figure at this point.
MARCH 23, 2020
Will “Deaths of Despair” Outpace Deaths From Coronavirus?
https://childrenshealthdefense.org/news/will-deaths-of-despair-outpace-deaths-from-coronavirus/
A middle-ground increase of 16% to 17% (for a total of about 20%), would be around ~970,000 extra deaths as a result of lockdown.
Those who would be most at-risk from economic-induced deaths would be people age 18 to 34, and of those, particularly men. Also, people who are early or in the middle of their careers would be most affected. The elderly population, not as much.
In addition to the other lasting knock-on effects of a possible (probable) Second Great Depression, the deaths and demographic crunch will vastly change the American landscape, particularly in terms of overall life expectancy.
I think there has to be a middle ground between ~294,000 and 1.8 million economic-induced deaths and a severe setback in national life expectancy, versus the coronavirus projections (not well understood at this point, and which would impact life expectancy very little).
"Okay it's been 15 days. Now what?"
Pandemia Dept: The model says 30 More Days To Stop The Spread
"The model has never matched the data. Maybe we need a new model?"
Pandemia Dept: Update in 2 weeks. Stop The Spread. Obey The Model.
“Let me be very clear: No one is expendable. No matter your age, race, gender, religion, ethnicity, sexual orientation, or disability. No life is worth losing to add one more point to the Dow.”
Are you my boss lol
You don't get it. We are setting up a "model" where no elected leader will ever have the GUTS to not shut it down at the first panic and bullshit model
Open it the fuck up
Guilty!
Oregon is a month into this thing and has 19 deaths, with an average age of 80 plus. We had 46 new cases yesterday. They say that when you've had it for 14 days and show no symptoms that you are recovered and have no contagion. So given that, Oregon very well may have had negative active cases yesterday from Tuesday.
But guess what.... We'll never know. Because Oregon doesn't track recoveries. Once you get it, the only way to be removed from the active case list is to die.
And I believe that is the same across the country.
So people see New York and their states active cases increase everyday and the deaths, but they will never be shown the high recovery rates.
That people is where the control and the corruption is self evident.
Because of the media and politicians, we have Karen's, here in Oregon yelling at passing cars because theyre not in quarantine. When the reality is that Oregon has probably already topped out.
And those same Karens are demanding our bars and restaurants be extended to be closed after April 15th, when we may have been on the down hill slide for two weeks.