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Hell is coming mathematical model
UW_Doog_Bot
Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 16,151 
in Tug Tavern
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hell-coming-mathematical-proof-185019616.html
[Our estimate for the fatality rate is 0.8%; this means for every death we have 125 infections. Since we have 205 total deaths, there must have been 205 times 125 total infections on February 25th. That’s 25,625 infected people. If you understand this part of the calculation, the rest of our analysis is pretty straightforward.
The number of infected people doubles every 3 days. So, on February 28th the number of infected people doubled to 51,250 (let’s round it down to 50,000). Three days later, on March 2nd, the number of infected people doubled again to 100,000.
Do you see start to see the gravity of the situation? There were 100K infected people on March 2nd in America. We know that 0.8% of these people will die by March 26th. That means our death toll will be 800 on March 26th [you can verify the accuracy of our model on March 26th by comparing the actual death toll to our estimate].
Our model tells us that the number of infections doubled again on March 5th, reaching 200,000.
Our model also tells us that the number of infected people was 400,000 on March 8th, 800,000 on March 11th, and 1.6 million on March 14th.
These calculations imply that the American death toll will be 12,800 on April 7th. To put that in perspective, yesterday, the total death toll in Italy was 3400 and 3000 in China.
I know that these are just estimates, but even if my estimates are off by 50%, we will have still twice as many coronavirus deaths as China 2.5 weeks from now.]
I don't for a second believe that the death toll in China is only 3,000 but other than that the numbers they have projected have been bearing out so far. I'm definitely taking the way over 12,000 dead.
[Our estimate for the fatality rate is 0.8%; this means for every death we have 125 infections. Since we have 205 total deaths, there must have been 205 times 125 total infections on February 25th. That’s 25,625 infected people. If you understand this part of the calculation, the rest of our analysis is pretty straightforward.
The number of infected people doubles every 3 days. So, on February 28th the number of infected people doubled to 51,250 (let’s round it down to 50,000). Three days later, on March 2nd, the number of infected people doubled again to 100,000.
Do you see start to see the gravity of the situation? There were 100K infected people on March 2nd in America. We know that 0.8% of these people will die by March 26th. That means our death toll will be 800 on March 26th [you can verify the accuracy of our model on March 26th by comparing the actual death toll to our estimate].
Our model tells us that the number of infections doubled again on March 5th, reaching 200,000.
Our model also tells us that the number of infected people was 400,000 on March 8th, 800,000 on March 11th, and 1.6 million on March 14th.
These calculations imply that the American death toll will be 12,800 on April 7th. To put that in perspective, yesterday, the total death toll in Italy was 3400 and 3000 in China.
I know that these are just estimates, but even if my estimates are off by 50%, we will have still twice as many coronavirus deaths as China 2.5 weeks from now.]
I don't for a second believe that the death toll in China is only 3,000 but other than that the numbers they have projected have been bearing out so far. I'm definitely taking the way over 12,000 dead.
Comments
We are at 658 today, two days from the 26th.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/
I kid. Grumble is dialed in. At this point a cool 20K dead would be seen as a disaster because of all the FREE PUB for Covid. It is easier to panic the herd than to get them to stop. I question how easy the end game will be if we see these numbers
Hard to disagree with that.
Labeling it the Trump Recession allows me to say I was right. As always. The reaction has been purely political designed to hurt Trump not help America
That's not a winning platform when your candidate can't spell CAT if you spot him the C and the A
@YellowSnow @MikeDamone
It's not even Babylon Bee.
😂😂😂😂😂
19% chance it's Cuomo.
Being a tuff prosecutor doesn't hurt in a national campaign but it does in the primary
We've gone from Al Gore using Willie Horton in the DNC primary against Dukakis to today where Dukakis would use Willie Horton against Gore
Can't see Cuomo or Hillary making it. But NY vs NY? nah
Can't the Dems throw a ringer in? is there a ringer?