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Hell is coming mathematical model
UW_Doog_Bot
Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 18,062 
in Tug Tavern
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hell-coming-mathematical-proof-185019616.html
[Our estimate for the fatality rate is 0.8%; this means for every death we have 125 infections. Since we have 205 total deaths, there must have been 205 times 125 total infections on February 25th. That’s 25,625 infected people. If you understand this part of the calculation, the rest of our analysis is pretty straightforward.
The number of infected people doubles every 3 days. So, on February 28th the number of infected people doubled to 51,250 (let’s round it down to 50,000). Three days later, on March 2nd, the number of infected people doubled again to 100,000.
Do you see start to see the gravity of the situation? There were 100K infected people on March 2nd in America. We know that 0.8% of these people will die by March 26th. That means our death toll will be 800 on March 26th [you can verify the accuracy of our model on March 26th by comparing the actual death toll to our estimate].
Our model tells us that the number of infections doubled again on March 5th, reaching 200,000.
Our model also tells us that the number of infected people was 400,000 on March 8th, 800,000 on March 11th, and 1.6 million on March 14th.
These calculations imply that the American death toll will be 12,800 on April 7th. To put that in perspective, yesterday, the total death toll in Italy was 3400 and 3000 in China.
I know that these are just estimates, but even if my estimates are off by 50%, we will have still twice as many coronavirus deaths as China 2.5 weeks from now.]
I don't for a second believe that the death toll in China is only 3,000 but other than that the numbers they have projected have been bearing out so far. I'm definitely taking the way over 12,000 dead.
[Our estimate for the fatality rate is 0.8%; this means for every death we have 125 infections. Since we have 205 total deaths, there must have been 205 times 125 total infections on February 25th. That’s 25,625 infected people. If you understand this part of the calculation, the rest of our analysis is pretty straightforward.
The number of infected people doubles every 3 days. So, on February 28th the number of infected people doubled to 51,250 (let’s round it down to 50,000). Three days later, on March 2nd, the number of infected people doubled again to 100,000.
Do you see start to see the gravity of the situation? There were 100K infected people on March 2nd in America. We know that 0.8% of these people will die by March 26th. That means our death toll will be 800 on March 26th [you can verify the accuracy of our model on March 26th by comparing the actual death toll to our estimate].
Our model tells us that the number of infections doubled again on March 5th, reaching 200,000.
Our model also tells us that the number of infected people was 400,000 on March 8th, 800,000 on March 11th, and 1.6 million on March 14th.
These calculations imply that the American death toll will be 12,800 on April 7th. To put that in perspective, yesterday, the total death toll in Italy was 3400 and 3000 in China.
I know that these are just estimates, but even if my estimates are off by 50%, we will have still twice as many coronavirus deaths as China 2.5 weeks from now.]
I don't for a second believe that the death toll in China is only 3,000 but other than that the numbers they have projected have been bearing out so far. I'm definitely taking the way over 12,000 dead.
Comments
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Well, let's have a look at deaths Friday morning.
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Death Day?
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Yesterday at this time we were at about +60 on the RCP unofficiall tracker. Right now it’s +105. Stats are for losers and not scientific but still...
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/ -
This sounds a lot like what Grumble has been saying all along. Way lower death rate than reported, but simultaneously way higher infection rate.
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I tend to be right, always.dnc said:This sounds a lot like what Grumble has been saying all along. Way lower death rate than reported, but simultaneously way higher infection rate.
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Both sides have been saying thisdnc said:This sounds a lot like what Grumble has been saying all along. Way lower death rate than reported, but simultaneously way higher infection rate.
I kid. Grumble is dialed in. At this point a cool 20K dead would be seen as a disaster because of all the FREE PUB for Covid. It is easier to panic the herd than to get them to stop. I question how easy the end game will be if we see these numbers
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Yikes
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Biden doesn’t have to be a marketing genius to blame Donald Trump for the death of 20,000+ Americans. He could very well label the recession as the “Trump Recession”. That’s why I believe Trump will lose the election and the stock market will start pricing the possibility of corporate tax rate increases pretty soon.
Hard to disagree with that. -
Venezuela here we come to the cheers of the left.
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Biden is Trump's hole card.
Labeling it the Trump Recession allows me to say I was right. As always. The reaction has been purely political designed to hurt Trump not help America
That's not a winning platform when your candidate can't spell CAT if you spot him the C and the A -
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"We have to take care of the cure. That will make the problem worse no matter what."RaceBannon said:
It's not even Babylon Bee.
😂😂😂😂😂 -
I'm still not convinced Joe will make it to the convention. It won't be Bernie either, Joe was used to make sure of that.
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What about Joe Biden as William Henry Harrison and Kamala Harris at John Tyler? This way you coulda sorta be right.RaceBannon said:I'm still not convinced Joe will make it to the convention. It won't be Bernie either, Joe was used to make sure of that.
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81% chance it's Hillary.RaceBannon said:I'm still not convinced Joe will make it to the convention. It won't be Bernie either, Joe was used to make sure of that.
19% chance it's Cuomo. -
Americans love them some trampling on the Constitution POS Presidents like Lincoln and FDR don't they?RaceBannon said: -
I said Harris was the best bet to beat Trump at the start of the campaign last year. Her own party hates her though
Being a tuff prosecutor doesn't hurt in a national campaign but it does in the primary
We've gone from Al Gore using Willie Horton in the DNC primary against Dukakis to today where Dukakis would use Willie Horton against Gore -
should be west vs east so Newsom vs Trump -
Can't see Cuomo or Hillary making it. But NY vs NY? nah
Can't the Dems throw a ringer in? is there a ringer? -
New York hasn't had a president since FDR
Rudy thought 9-11 might be the ticket. Mayor Lindsey, Governor Rockefeller, Senator Clinton - all losers
I'm not impressed with Cuomo whining about respirators. You are fucking New York. Build some. Why weren't you prepared? Why do we need governors if the Feds have to do everything? -
Question would be how they could throw a ringer in there? My theory would be joe to keep running until right before the convention and then it would go to the delegates. This keeps bernie from getting the majority. Could very well be the plan. Who's tanned, rested, and ready?LebamDawg said:should be west vs east so Newsom vs Trump -
Can't see Cuomo or Hillary making it. But NY vs NY? nah
Can't the Dems throw a ringer in? is there a ringer? -
So we need to prolong the suffering by serval years. Got it.RaceBannon said: -
And get in WW3MikeDamone said:
So we need to prolong the suffering by serval years. Got it.RaceBannon said: -
US deaths up another 23% today with another 3.5 hours until midnight GMT. This will probably be another 30%+ day. At this pace, you’re absolutely right to take the way over.UW_Doog_Bot said:https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hell-coming-mathematical-proof-185019616.html
[Our estimate for the fatality rate is 0.8%; this means for every death we have 125 infections. Since we have 205 total deaths, there must have been 205 times 125 total infections on February 25th. That’s 25,625 infected people. If you understand this part of the calculation, the rest of our analysis is pretty straightforward.
The number of infected people doubles every 3 days. So, on February 28th the number of infected people doubled to 51,250 (let’s round it down to 50,000). Three days later, on March 2nd, the number of infected people doubled again to 100,000.
Do you see start to see the gravity of the situation? There were 100K infected people on March 2nd in America. We know that 0.8% of these people will die by March 26th. That means our death toll will be 800 on March 26th [you can verify the accuracy of our model on March 26th by comparing the actual death toll to our estimate].
Our model tells us that the number of infections doubled again on March 5th, reaching 200,000.
Our model also tells us that the number of infected people was 400,000 on March 8th, 800,000 on March 11th, and 1.6 million on March 14th.
These calculations imply that the American death toll will be 12,800 on April 7th. To put that in perspective, yesterday, the total death toll in Italy was 3400 and 3000 in China.
I know that these are just estimates, but even if my estimates are off by 50%, we will have still twice as many coronavirus deaths as China 2.5 weeks from now.]
I don't for a second believe that the death toll in China is only 3,000 but other than that the numbers they have projected have been bearing out so far. I'm definitely taking the way over 12,000 dead. -
The serval (Leptailurus serval) /ˈsɜːrvəl/ is a wild cat native to Africa. It is rare in North Africa and the Sahel, but widespread in sub-Saharan countries except rainforest regions. On the IUCN Red List it is listed as Least Concern.[1]MikeDamone said:
So we need to prolong the suffering by serval years. Got it.RaceBannon said:
It was first described by von Schreber in 1776.[3] It is the sole member of the genus Leptailurus. Three subspecies are recognised. The serval is a slender, medium-sized cat that stands 54–62 cm (21–24 in) at the shoulder and weighs 9–18 kg (20–40 lb). It is characterised by a small head, large ears, a golden-yellow to buff coat spotted and striped with black, and a short, black-tipped tail. The serval has the longest legs of any cat relative to its body size.
Active in the day as well as at night, servals tend to be solitary with minimal social interaction. Both sexes establish highly overlapping home ranges of 10 to 32 km2 (4 to 12 sq mi), and mark them with feces and saliva. Servals are carnivores – they prey on rodents (particularly vlei rats), small birds, frogs, insects, and reptiles. The serval uses its sense of hearing to locate the prey; to kill small prey, it leaps over 2 m (6 ft 7 in) above the ground to land on the prey on its forefeet, and finally kills it with a bite on the neck or the head. Mating takes place at different times of the year in different parts of their range, but typically once or twice a year in an area. After a gestational period of two to three months, a litter of one to four is born. Weaning occurs at one month, and kittens begin hunting on their own at six months. The juveniles leave their mother at 12 months.
It occurs in protected areas across its range, and hunting of servals is either prohibited or regulated in several countries.
Contents
1 Etymology
2 Taxonomy
2.1 Phylogeny
2.2 Hybrid
3 Characteristics
4 Distribution and habitat
5 Behaviour and ecology
5.1 Hunting and diet
5.2 Reproduction
6 Threats
7 Conservation
8 In culture
9 References
10 External links
Etymology
The name "serval" is a Portuguese name used by Georges-Louis Leclerc, Comte de Buffon in 1765 for a spotted cat that was kept at the time in the Royal Menagerie in Versailles.[4] The name Leptailurus may have been derived from the medieval Greek λεπταλέος or λεπτός meaning "fine, delicate".[5]
Taxonomy
Felis serval was first described by Johann Christian Daniel von Schreber in 1776.[3] In the 19th and 20th centuries, the following serval zoological specimens were described:
Felis constantina proposed by Georg Forster in 1780 was a specimen from the vicinity of Constantine, Algeria.[6]
Felis servalina proposed by William Ogilby in 1839 was based on one serval skin from Sierra Leone with freckle-sized spots.[7]
Felis brachyura proposed by Johann Andreas Wagner in 1841 was also a serval skin from Sierra Leone.[8]
Felis (Serval) togoensis proposed by Paul Matschie in 1893 were two skins and three skulls from Togo.[9]
Felis servalina pantasticta and F. s. liposticta proposed by Reginald Innes Pocock in 1907 were based on one serval from Entebbe in Uganda with a yellowish fur, and one serval skin from Mombasa in Kenya with dusky spots on its belly.[10]
Felis capensis phillipsi proposed by Glover Morrill Allen in 1914 was a skin and a skeleton of an adult male serval from El Garef at the Blue Nile in Sudan.[11]
The generic name Leptailurus was proposed by Nikolai Severtzov in 1858.[12] The serval is the sole member of this genus.[13]
In 1944, Pocock recognised three serval races in North Africa.[14] Three subspecies are recognised as valid since 2017:[15]
L. s. serval in Southern Africa
L. s. constantina in Central and West Africa
L. s. lipostictus in East Africa
Phylogeny
The phylogenetic relationships of the serval have remained in dispute; in 1997, palaeontologists M. C. McKenna and S. K. Bell classified Leptailurus as a subgenus of Felis, while others like O. R. P. Bininda-Edmonds (of the Technical University of Munich) have grouped it with Felis, Lynx and Caracal. Studies in the 2000s and the 2010s show that the serval, along with the caracal and the African golden cat, forms one of the eight lineages of Felidae. According to a 2006 genetic study, the Caracal lineage came into existence 8.5 million years ago, and the ancestor of this lineage arrived in Africa 8.5–5.6 mya.[2][16]
The phylogenetic relationships of the serval are as follows:[2][16]
Pardofelis
Marbled cat (P. marmorata)
Catopuma
Bay cat (Catopuma badia)
Asian golden cat (Catopuma temminckii)
Caracal
Leptailurus
Serval (L. serval)
Caracal
Caracal (Caracal caracal)
African golden cat (Caracal aurata)
lineage
Leopardus
Lynx
Acinonyx
Puma
Otocolobus
Prionailurus
Felis
Hybrid
In April 1986, the first savannah cat, a hybrid between a male serval and a female domestic cat, was born; it was larger than a typical domestic kitten and resembled its father in its coat pattern. It appeared to have inherited a few domestic cat traits, such as tameness, from its mother. This cat breed may have a dog-like habit of following its owner about, and can be a good swimmer. Over the years it has gained popularity as a pet.[17]
Characteristics
A captive serval in Auckland Zoo
The serval is a slender, medium-sized cat; it stands 54 to 62 cm (21–24 in) at the shoulder and weighs 8 to 18 kg (18–40 lb), but females tend to be lighter. The head-and-body length is typically between 67 and 100 cm (26–39 in).[18] Males tend to be sturdier than females.[19] Prominent characteristics include the small head, large ears, spotted and striped coat, long legs and a black-tipped tail that is around 30 cm (12 in) long.[20][21] The serval has the longest legs of any cat relative to its body size, largely due to the greatly elongated metatarsal bones in the feet.[22][23] The toes are elongated as well, and unusually mobile.[22]
The coat is basically golden-yellow to buff, and extensively marked with black spots and stripes.[19] The spots show great variation in size. Melanistic servals are also known.[22] Facial features include the brownish or greenish eyes, white whiskers on the snout and near the ears, ears as large as those of a domestic cat (but large relative to the size of the head) and black on the back with a white horizontal band in the middle, whitish chin, and spots and streaks on the cheeks and the forehead. Three to four black stripes run from the back of the head onto the shoulders, and then break into rows of spots. The white underbelly has dense and fluffy basal fur, and the soft guard hairs (the layer of fur protecting the basal fur) are 5–10 cm (2–4 in) long. Guard hairs are up to 3 cm (1 1⁄4 in) long on the neck, back and the flanks, and are merely 1 cm (1⁄2 in) long on the face.[21][24][19] The closely set ears are black on the back with a horizontal white band;[19] the ears can rotate up to 180 degrees independently of each other.[22] The serval has a good sense of smell, hearing and vision.[21]
A leucistic serval at Big Cat Rescue[25]
The serval is similar to the sympatric caracal, but has a narrower spoor, a rounder skull, and lacks its prominent ear tufts. The African golden cat is darker, with different cranial features.[19] It resembles the cheetah in its build and coat pattern, though not in size.[21] The serval shares its adaptations to its marshy habitat with the jungle cat; both cats have large and sharp ears that help in locating the prey efficiently, and their long legs raise them above muddy ground and water.[26]
Distribution and habitat
A serval cat Diergaarde Blijdorp
In North Africa, the serval is known only from Morocco and has been reintroduced in Tunisia, but is feared to be extinct in Algeria. It inhabits semi-arid areas and cork oak forests close to the Mediterranean Sea, but avoids rainforests and arid areas. It occurs in the Sahel, and is widespread in Southern Africa. It inhabits grasslands, moorlands and bamboo thickets at high altitudes up to 3,800 m (12,500 ft) on Mount Kilimanjaro. It prefers areas close to water bodies such as wetland and savanna, which provide cover such as reeds and tall grasses.[1][19] In 2014 and 2015, it was recorded in the floodplains and gallery forests of Benin’s Pendjari National Park by camera-traps.[27] In the East Sudanian Savanna, it was recorded in the transboundary Dinder–Alatash protected area complex during surveys between 2015 and 2018.[28]
In Zambia's Luambe National Park, the population density was recorded as 0.1/km2 (0.26/sq mi) in 2011.[29] In South Africa, the serval was recorded in Free State, eastern Northern Cape, and southern North West.[30] In Namibia, it is present in Khaudum and Mudumu National Parks.[31]
Behaviour and ecology
The serval's white spots on the backs of its ears are thought to play an important role in communication.[32]
The serval is active in the day as well as at night; activity might peak in early morning, around twilight and at midnight. Servals might be active for a longer time on cool or rainy days. During the hot midday, they rest or groom themselves in the shade of bushes and grasses. Servals remain cautious of their vicinity, though they may be less alert when no large carnivores or prey animals are around. Servals walk as much as 2 to 4 kilometres (1 1⁄4 to 2 1⁄2 miles) every night.[20][18] Servals will often use special trails to reach certain hunting areas. A solitary animal, there is little social interaction among servals except in the mating season, when pairs of opposite sexes may stay together. The only long-lasting bond appears to be of the mother and her cubs, which leave their mother only when they are a year old.[19]
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Over 60,000 Americans died of the flu in 2017-2018. I don't even remember it. Nothing was shut down.
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It will be Bloomberg, Cuomo or Michelle ObamaRaceBannon said:I'm still not convinced Joe will make it to the convention. It won't be Bernie either, Joe was used to make sure of that.
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81% of the time you tend to be right, always.GrundleStiltzkin said:
I tend to be right, always.dnc said:This sounds a lot like what Grumble has been saying all along. Way lower death rate than reported, but simultaneously way higher infection rate.
The other 19% of the time you tend to be right, just not always.
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That is largely correctPurpleThrobber said:
81% of the time you tend to be right, always.GrundleStiltzkin said:
I tend to be right, always.dnc said:This sounds a lot like what Grumble has been saying all along. Way lower death rate than reported, but simultaneously way higher infection rate.
The other 19% of the time you tend to be right, just not always.
