Hell is coming mathematical model
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I thought we were already in WWIII?RaceBannon said:
And get in WW3MikeDamone said:
So we need to prolong the suffering by serval years. Got it.RaceBannon said: -
Hard to keep trackSFGbob said:
I thought we were already in WWIII?RaceBannon said:
And get in WW3MikeDamone said:
So we need to prolong the suffering by serval years. Got it.RaceBannon said: -
Well on the path towards herd immunity at this rate
I’ll be shocked if the Dem nominee is Biden ... it’s TBD
In some ways we got lucky in Washington that the breakthrough moment was a combo of the nursing home showing how contagious this was combined with companies being well ahead of the curve in shutting things down -
I'm still in the Biden as Convention nominee, Hillary as Veep camp; Joe steps out for 'health reasons' and Hillary ascends to the top spot.Tequilla said:Well on the path towards herd immunity at this rate
I’ll be shocked if the Dem nominee is Biden ... it’s TBD
In some ways we got lucky in Washington that the breakthrough moment was a combo of the nursing home showing how contagious this was combined with companies being well ahead of the curve in shutting things down
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So we got there a day early.
[Our estimate for the fatality rate is 0.8%; this means for every death we have 125 infections. Since we have 205 total deaths, there must have been 205 times 125 total infections on February 25th. That’s 25,625 infected people. If you understand this part of the calculation, the rest of our analysis is pretty straightforward.
The number of infected people doubles every 3 days. So, on February 28th the number of infected people doubled to 51,250 (let’s round it down to 50,000). Three days later, on March 2nd, the number of infected people doubled again to 100,000.
Do you see start to see the gravity of the situation? There were 100K infected people on March 2nd in America. We know that 0.8% of these people will die by March 26th. That means our death toll will be 800 on March 26th [you can verify the accuracy of our model on March 26th by comparing the actual death toll to our estimate].
The only thing I'll hope for is that all the social distancing and shutdowns of large events have shortened the exponential nature of this thing. Shit's going to get real if this correlation holds. We are already on track to break the 5,000 mark on April first.
[no one has any idea that there are already around 2 million infected people in America today and the American death toll will exceed 15,000 in just 24 days.] -
Brazil has joined Mexico as a control country for doing very little. Mostly provinces with the Federales downplaying it
Its going to be important for any rational review of the extreme measures taken by most everyone else.
Otherwise prep for the 6 month work year -
https://dailynews.com/2020/03/24/wait-did-i-already-have-coronavirus-experts-say-maybe-but-it-doesnt-necessarily-mean-youre-immune/
A lot of questions still but I think I had something similar in December. It lingered long enough that I went to the doctor in January which I avoid as much as possible
It makes sense that there would be a lag time between it entering humans and going around the globe and awareness of such. Especially when dealing with the Chi Coms -
There’s a very real chance that some Southern Californians who had dry coughs, fevers and other symptoms of the coronavirus as far back as December might have already recovered from the disease, according to both Brandon Brown, a public health professor at UC Riverside who specializes in infectious diseases, and Dr. Robert Kim-Farley, an epidemiology professor at UCLA.RaceBannon said:https://dailynews.com/2020/03/24/wait-did-i-already-have-coronavirus-experts-say-maybe-but-it-doesnt-necessarily-mean-youre-immune/
A lot of questions still but I think I had something similar in December. It lingered long enough that I went to the doctor in January which I avoid as much as possible
It makes sense that there would be a lag time between it entering humans and going around the globe and awareness of such. Especially when dealing with the Chi Coms
Wasn't that your bong hit nightly phase?
Lung cookies are a thing.
#edibles -
So I can pretend that I'm a member of Congress or a public employee?RaceBannon said:Brazil has joined Mexico as a control country for doing very little. Mostly provinces with the Federales downplaying it
Its going to be important for any rational review of the extreme measures taken by most everyone else.
Otherwise prep for the 6 month work year -
It’s March 26 and the author looks to have been greatly over optimistic.
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It's been exactly 1 month today that I came down with a terrible flu. The dry cough and chest tightening lasted 3 weeks after the fever broke. I'm probably 92% back to normal.RaceBannon said:https://dailynews.com/2020/03/24/wait-did-i-already-have-coronavirus-experts-say-maybe-but-it-doesnt-necessarily-mean-youre-immune/
A lot of questions still but I think I had something similar in December. It lingered long enough that I went to the doctor in January which I avoid as much as possible
It makes sense that there would be a lag time between it entering humans and going around the globe and awareness of such. Especially when dealing with the Chi Coms -
hee heeDuckHHunterisafag said:
It's been exactly 1 month today that I came down with a terrible flu. The dry cough and chest tightening lasted 3 weeks after the fever broke. I'm probably 81% back to normal.RaceBannon said:https://dailynews.com/2020/03/24/wait-did-i-already-have-coronavirus-experts-say-maybe-but-it-doesnt-necessarily-mean-youre-immune/
A lot of questions still but I think I had something similar in December. It lingered long enough that I went to the doctor in January which I avoid as much as possible
It makes sense that there would be a lag time between it entering humans and going around the globe and awareness of such. Especially when dealing with the Chi Coms -
This model predicted 800 deaths by the 26th and 1600 by the 29th. Unfortunately looking like we'll hit 1600 today so we continue to run ahead of this model...
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We continue to run ahead of this model which predicted we’d hit 3200 deaths tomorrow, a mark we reached this morning...
Should be getting to the point where social distancing measures will have an impact on new cases. -
If only you weren't a publicly convicted and humiliated Lying POS pedophile parrot, someone might give a fuck what you think.GDS said:We continue to run ahead of this model which predicted we’d hit 3200 deaths tomorrow, a mark we reached this morning...
Should be getting to the point where social distancing measures will have an impact on new cases.
But you are what you are, lying pedophile. -
The 28th was 2 weeks exactly from the first shut downs and measures taken. New cases are down instead of up the last few days. Hopefully the trend continues that way and we can catch up to a point where we are back to containment instead of mitigation. That would mean we could begin opening things back up. -
Italy only now seeing confirmed cases drop off. Today was fewest number of new confirmed cases since March 17th.UW_Doog_Bot said:
The 28th was 2 weeks exactly from the first shut downs and measures taken. New cases are down instead of up the last few days. Hopefully the trend continues that way and we can catch up to a point where we are back to containment instead of mitigation. That would mean we could begin opening things back up. -
I don't give a fuck how many people die. Survival of the fittest is a thing. Fuck everyone. I haven't seen a roll of toilet paper in a month. Maybe some sustained casualties will allow me to wipe my ass normally again.
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I'm gonna take the under on Gavin's 25 Million I think.
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42 in OC today so that's still within non-exponential growth and 3 days of dropped growth levels. Not in the clear but I'd say we are seeing "flattening of the curve" down here at this point.UW_Doog_Bot said:
The 28th was 2 weeks exactly from the first shut downs and measures taken. New cases are down instead of up the last few days. Hopefully the trend continues that way and we can catch up to a point where we are back to containment instead of mitigation. That would mean we could begin opening things back up. -
Spiked again yesterday but back down today.
NYC is fucked though. I'm more worried about cross border issues with LA now than I am with OC as a whole. -
We continue to run ahead of this model. It predicted 6400 deaths by April 4th. We are already over 7,300 and not through the 3rd yet....
With an estimated 23-24 days from infection to resolution we should start to see the social mitigation efforts help us drop back to on par and below this models projections soon.... -
This model showed 12,800 deaths by end of day tomorrow, and thankfully doesn't look like we'll get there. As expected the social mitigation measures appear to be having an effect.
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TRUMP leadership. Thank you, thank you very muchGDS said:This model showed 12,800 deaths by end of day tomorrow, and thankfully doesn't look like we'll get there. As expected the social mitigation measures appear to be having an effect.
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Except the models are already accounting for social mitigation, so there is another reason the numbers are short...GDS said:This model showed 12,800 deaths by end of day tomorrow, and thankfully doesn't look like we'll get there. As expected the social mitigation measures appear to be having an effect.
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This one wasn’tBob_C said:
Except the models are already accounting for social mitigation, so there is another reason the numbers are short...GDS said:This model showed 12,800 deaths by end of day tomorrow, and thankfully doesn't look like we'll get there. As expected the social mitigation measures appear to be having an effect.
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Never trust a lying pedophile parrot like @GDS, I always say.GDS said:
This one wasn’tBob_C said:
Except the models are already accounting for social mitigation, so there is another reason the numbers are short...GDS said:This model showed 12,800 deaths by end of day tomorrow, and thankfully doesn't look like we'll get there. As expected the social mitigation measures appear to be having an effect.
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NMTE
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well fuck - looks like we'll hit 12,800 after all as deaths spiked today. At minimum though we are back to on par with this model and not running ahead as we had the last couple of weeks.
