The Inverted Yield Curve

creepycoug

Discuss?

It's been a pretty good predictor, but then it seems when you tell everybody something's been a good predictor it entrenches that thing as a pretty good predictor, in a self-fulfilling prophecy kind of way.

Information is supposed to make markets more pure, but it's such a reactive thing anymore I wonder.

Welp, some stocks might be on sale soon.

UW_Doog_Bot

Fed increased rates, fed is now decreasing rates. People like having better rates.

UW_Doog_Bot

Also, when economic conditions lag what is the first thing the fed does as a preventative step to try and either prevent or mitigate a recession? They cut rates.

This creates a pretty high correlation while not necessarily meaning the two are causal or perfectly related.

Lurking variables.

Even @CirrhosisDawg hasn't shorted ALL of his investments I would guess.

creepycoug

UW_Doog_Bot said:

Fed increased rates, fed is now decreasing rates. People like having better rates.

I know. But when short-term rates are higher than long-term rates, it's a signal of the market's flight to safety. Either they're right, or their actions might make the prophecy self-fulfilling, or bofe!

Sure, the fed cutting rates should help. But is there a more fundamental problem? I don't know. This trade war bidness we have discussed might exact more pain from us in the short to medium-term than we thought. Other issues at play?

The rate cut should help the yield stocks, something near and dear to my heart.

oregonblitzkrieg

Who cares. DCA. BTFD on every good selloff.

RaceBannon

I remember when the market was a rigged game for the 1%

Occupy

CirrhosisDawg

UST’s are one of the last refuges of safe positive return. Even at an anemic1.60% or so on the ten year, it’s the most safe enclave while trump tilts at windmills and chases great white whales on his quixotic trade war. A normal sloping yield curve (although very flat) can and will return as soon as trump declares victory and leaves this colossal mess to sort itself through markets.

RaceBannon

Real estate

Shortage of stock and over supply of renters

Put your cash in rentals

Profit

creepycoug

oregonblitzkrieg said:

Who cares. DCA. BTFD on every good selloff.

Discounted Assets? Buy the fuck down on every good selloff?

PurpleThrobber

Gold. Buy Buy buy.

oregonblitzkrieg

creepycoug said:

oregonblitzkrieg said:

Who cares. DCA. BTFD on every good selloff.

Discounted Assets? Buy the fuck down on every good selloff?

Dollar Cost Average on quality stock. Buy the f'ing Dips. The big daily or weekly chart dips. Scale in and short volatility when VIX > 20

Blu82

CirrhosisDawg said:

UST’s are one of the last refuges of safe positive return. Even at an anemic1.60% or so on the ten year, it’s the most safe enclave while trump tilts at windmills and chases great white whales on his quixotic trade war. A normal sloping yield curve (although very flat) can and will return as soon as trump declares victory and leaves this colossal mess to sort itself through markets.

Sure. Trump is losing bigly.

I'm sure you have inside contacts in China that are telling you of the economic chaos going on.
Did your sources also conjure up the $60B that the US has collected in tarrifs?
Did they also tell you about the grain purchases China made after pledging they would buy no more US grain? Yep, it was Trump that caved.
Did your sources tell you about the 560 Chinese companies that have folded in the past 60 days because their custsomers found suppliers in other countries?
Did your sources also fill you in on the economic slow downs that have happened in numerous countries? Of course, this will never have an impact on the US economy.
Your all knowing brain surely must have told you that 8 of 10 commodity producers support Trump in this battle with China. They are very happy that the US finally has a president with enough balls to fix the problem. They are feeling the brunt of this trade war and fully support it.

Snowflakes like you prefer to cower in the corner, deathly afraid of an economy that is a fraction of the US GDP. Fags like you seem to think that Xi can scratch his ass and blow away the US.

Yep, tilting at windmills while you fuck fat chicks. They all need love!

HoustonHusky

creepycoug said:

Discuss?

It's been a pretty good predictor, but then it seems when you tell everybody something's been a good predictor it entrenches that thing as a pretty good predictor, in a self-fulfilling prophecy kind of way.

Information is supposed to make markets more pure, but it's such a reactive thing anymore I wonder.

Welp, some stocks might be on sale soon.

All of the Central Banks are so far from normal with low (to negative) interest rates I don’t think any of the previous “rules” mean much anymore. Nobody is making borrowing decisions based on interest payments or cuts in them when you are already at 3% or lower...all it is now is a measure of currency strength.

Stocks are nuts at these levels, but when you look at these low rates and the rest of the world basically already in a recession where else are you going to put your money?

CirrhosisDawg

HoustonHusky said:

creepycoug said:

Discuss?

It's been a pretty good predictor, but then it seems when you tell everybody something's been a good predictor it entrenches that thing as a pretty good predictor, in a self-fulfilling prophecy kind of way.

Information is supposed to make markets more pure, but it's such a reactive thing anymore I wonder.

Welp, some stocks might be on sale soon.

All of the Central Banks are so far from normal with low (to negative) interest rates I don’t think any of the previous “rules” mean much anymore. Nobody is making borrowing decisions based on interest payments or cuts in them when you are already at 3% or lower...all it is now is a measure of currency strength.

Stocks are nuts at these levels, but when you look at these low rates and the rest of the world basically already in a recession where else are you going to put your money?

You mean people with money? In 1.6% ten year USTs.
JFC

CirrhosisDawg

Reply to @Blu82
Yes, yes(lol), lol, yes, lol, lol, lol.

Blu82

CirrhosisDawg said:

Reply to @Blu82
Yes, yes(lol), lol, yes, lol, lol, lol.

Translation: "I don't have a fucking clue as to what I'm talking about. However, I'll continue to try and say smart guy stuff in hopes that nobody will expose me".

CirrhosisDawg

Blu82 said:

CirrhosisDawg said:

Reply to @Blu82
Yes, yes(lol), lol, yes, lol, lol, lol.

Translation: "I don't have a fucking clue as to what I'm talking about. However, I'll continue to try and say smart guy stuff in hopes that nobody will expose me".

I would hate to be exposed. I’m calling you out. You just regurgitated 300 words of meaningless gibberish that confirms for me that you are a fucking idiot. Go for it you moron.

PurpleThrobber

HoustonHusky said:

creepycoug said:

Discuss?

It's been a pretty good predictor, but then it seems when you tell everybody something's been a good predictor it entrenches that thing as a pretty good predictor, in a self-fulfilling prophecy kind of way.

Information is supposed to make markets more pure, but it's such a reactive thing anymore I wonder.

Welp, some stocks might be on sale soon.

All of the Central Banks are so far from normal with low (to negative) interest rates I don’t think any of the previous “rules” mean much anymore. Nobody is making borrowing decisions based on interest payments or cuts in them when you are already at 3% or lower...all it is now is a measure of currency strength.

Stocks are nuts at these levels, but when you look at these low rates and the rest of the world basically already in a recession where else are you going to put your money?

Gold. Buy buy buy

HoustonHusky

CirrhosisDawg said:

HoustonHusky said:

creepycoug said:

Discuss?

It's been a pretty good predictor, but then it seems when you tell everybody something's been a good predictor it entrenches that thing as a pretty good predictor, in a self-fulfilling prophecy kind of way.

Information is supposed to make markets more pure, but it's such a reactive thing anymore I wonder.

Welp, some stocks might be on sale soon.

All of the Central Banks are so far from normal with low (to negative) interest rates I don’t think any of the previous “rules” mean much anymore. Nobody is making borrowing decisions based on interest payments or cuts in them when you are already at 3% or lower...all it is now is a measure of currency strength.

Stocks are nuts at these levels, but when you look at these low rates and the rest of the world basically already in a recession where else are you going to put your money?

You mean people with money? In 1.6% ten year USTs.
JFC

What the fuck are you rambling about? I’m talking about businesses being able to pretty much borrow however much they want at crazy low rates. Cutting interest rates doesn’t spur them to borrow more because we are already at insanely low rates.

PurpleThrobber

HoustonHusky said:

CirrhosisDawg said:

HoustonHusky said:

creepycoug said:

Discuss?

It's been a pretty good predictor, but then it seems when you tell everybody something's been a good predictor it entrenches that thing as a pretty good predictor, in a self-fulfilling prophecy kind of way.

Information is supposed to make markets more pure, but it's such a reactive thing anymore I wonder.

Welp, some stocks might be on sale soon.

All of the Central Banks are so far from normal with low (to negative) interest rates I don’t think any of the previous “rules” mean much anymore. Nobody is making borrowing decisions based on interest payments or cuts in them when you are already at 3% or lower...all it is now is a measure of currency strength.

Stocks are nuts at these levels, but when you look at these low rates and the rest of the world basically already in a recession where else are you going to put your money?

You mean people with money? In 1.6% ten year USTs.
JFC

What the fuck are you rambling about? I’m talking about businesses being able to pretty much borrow however much they want at crazy low rates. Cutting interest rates doesn’t spur them to borrow more because we are already at insanely low rates.

True.

Funds will flow to the US for better yields and relative safety, low political risk.

Domestic borrowing isn’t going to change much.

Blu82

CirrhosisDawg said:

Blu82 said:

CirrhosisDawg said:

Reply to @Blu82
Yes, yes(lol), lol, yes, lol, lol, lol.

Translation: "I don't have a fucking clue as to what I'm talking about. However, I'll continue to try and say smart guy stuff in hopes that nobody will expose me".

I would hate to be exposed. I’m calling you out. You just regurgitated 300 words of meaningless gibberish that confirms for me that you are a fucking idiot. Go for it you moron.

CD proudly waving the white flag because he can't refute anything I said.