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Oregon Offseason Natty Complete
DoogCourics
Member Posts: 5,739
ESPN's FPI update has UO at 10th with this to say:
"Which one of these four teams has the best shot at pulling off a darkhorse run to the Playoff? The FPI is highest on Oregon (9.7 wins) and Notre Dame (9.4 wins), but only gives the Ducks a 35 percent chance to win the Pac-12 — which is what Mario Cristobal's team will have to do to have a shot. The Oregon-Auburn opener at AT&T Stadium is intriguing for a number of reasons, none bigger than the outcome possibly coming into play with the selection committee down the stretch."
"ESPN has previously released their 2019-2020 College Football Playoff predictor and the Ducks have the eighth highest percentage to make the CFP and the highest percentage of any Pac-12 team. According to the playoff predictor, the Ducks have a 14% chance of making the College Football Playoff. Three other Pac-12 teams are listed with a chance as well, Washington (4%), UCLA (1%), and Utah (1%)."
Auburn in Texas, at Stanford, at Washington, at USC. Four toughest opponents on the road where Oregon is 3-7 over the last two years.
Meanwhile....
ESPN's FPI update has UW at 17th with this to say:
"Bullish on Washington? ESPN's simulation model likes the Huskies to finish 9-3, but not win the Pac-12 Championship this season due to a brutal slate. That sounds a lot like several of the teams in this list who are talented with depth, but will likely succumb to difficult stretches against Top 25 competition."
Brutal slate? You mean like Eastern Washington, Hawaii, and BYU for non-con, your only difficult road game being at Stanford, and then getting USC, Oregon, Utah, and Wazzu all at home where UW has won 14 straight and is undefeated the last two years?
Come on ESPN.
Comments
They've also gotta build them up bc of the matchup against Auburn.
https://si.com/nfl/2019/07/09/nfl-mock-draft-2020-justin-herbert-tua-tagovailoa
Senior Hometown Hero QB with little on field success projected #1 overall. What could go wrong?
this was the knock on mariotta too, right? big, athletic, qb that wanted to be on the west coast so he could get to hawaii easily? well, its gone swimmingly for marcus so far...when hes not injured.
If you consistently have the #1 defense in the conference year after year, a veteran O-line across the board that has NFL talent on it, a QB with elite top-10 NFL draft potential, and one of the best head coaches in the country, I think that should be good enough to be the conference favorite by a long shot.
Not some fucking dark horse program that can't win on the road and has never had the #1 defense in the conference under their current staff, let alone in recent memory.
I love being the hunter instead of the hunted. The defending conference champs have been written off. Let that anger and feeling of disrespect come out on the field.
@ Washington - Oct. 19th
Win probability: 51.9%
Again.... Oregon, who is 3-7 on the road the last 2 years is favored at Washington, against a team who has won 14 straight home games.
I’d kill for heads up odds on that game.
#deepdicking > #flexfriday