A billion dollars for Durant?!?

GDS

These numbers are insane.

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/26933637/durant-free-agency-options-means-warriors

The finances and roster: With KD and without
The Warriors will be in the luxury tax even if KD leaves. The question comes down to how much they'll have to pay.

One scenario: The Warriors sign a league-record four players to max contracts by re-signing Durant and Thompson this summer and then extending Green on a max deal for 2020-21.

Warriors With Durant
SEASON SALARY TAX TOTAL
2019-20 $176.2M $203.5M $379.7M
2020-21 $180.2M $169.8M $350.0M
2021-22 $196.2M $231.6M $427.8M
2022-23 $203.2M $229.0M $432.0M
Total $1.59B
That is not a misprint. Keeping this team together and filling out the roster with minimum players, first-round picks, the tax midlevel exception and Kevon Looney on a three-year, $15 million contract would cost Golden State close to $1.6 billion in salary and luxury in the next four seasons.

With Durant on the team, Golden State will likely be rewarded the $9.2 million Disabled Player Exception if the NBA deems that the Achilles injury would hold him out until June 15, 2020. The exception would allow the Warriors to sign a free agent (or acquire a player in a trade or off waivers) to a one-year contract. However, using the full amount would cost Golden State an extra $68 million toward the luxury tax.

Keep in mind that the team was bought for $450 million in 2010.

The second scenario: There would be $960 million in savings by retaining Thompson and losing Durant, but the Warriors would still be hampered by restrictions in filling out the rest of the roster.

Warriors Without Durant
SEASON SALARY TAX TOTAL
2019-20 $139.7M $19.8M $159.5M
2020-21 $140.7M N/A $140.7M
2021-22 $153.7M $14.3M $168.0M
2022-23 $155.5M $5.7 $161.2M
Total $629.4M
In at least three of the next four seasons, the Warriors would still be in the luxury tax. The Warriors once again would need to rely on the draft and identifying bargains in free agency. There would be a consistent rotating door when it comes to the bench.

Houhusky

Green, Iguodala, and Livingstone are all overpaid for what they bring to golden state at this point in their careers.

Move to the San Antonio model. Keep your 3 great core players in Klay, KD, and Steph together until they die of old age and then supplement with draft and role/gadget players that have lower salaries. Trade away anyone else who gets to expensive for draft picks. Looney is the perfect type of player for them too right now.

allpurpleallgold

Houhusky said:

Green, Iguodala, and Livingstone are all overpaid for what they bring to golden state at this point in their careers.

Move to the San Antonio model. Keep your 3 great core players in Klay, KD, and Steph together until they die of old age and then supplement with draft and role/gadget players that have lower salaries. Trade away anyone else who gets to expensive for draft picks. Looney is the perfect type of player for them too right now.

Um Green is the best defender in basketball. Not during the regular season but playoff Green is a monster. He’ll probably end up over paid on his next contract but his current deal has been a steal.

I think the Warriors plan, if KD stayed, was to do as you suggest. Durant’s injury changes that though. He’s never going to be the same player, no one ever has. They’ll never say it and they’ll offer KD the 5 year max but there’s no way they want him to sign it.

Houhusky

allpurpleallgold said:

Houhusky said:

Green, Iguodala, and Livingstone are all overpaid for what they bring to golden state at this point in their careers.

Move to the San Antonio model. Keep your 3 great core players in Klay, KD, and Steph together until they die of old age and then supplement with draft and role/gadget players that have lower salaries. Trade away anyone else who gets to expensive for draft picks. Looney is the perfect type of player for them too right now.

Um Green is the best defender in basketball. Not during the regular season but playoff Green is a monster. He’ll probably end up over paid on his next contract but his current deal has been a steal.

I think the Warriors plan, if KD stayed, was to do as you suggest. Durant’s injury changes that though. He’s never going to be the same player, no one ever has. They’ll never say it and they’ll offer KD the 5 year max but there’s no way they want him to sign it.

Eh.... I think Green is a good defender, maybe great, but just not worth the price tag for a team that can score like GS. I think he has also lost a step from a year or two ago and is such a dead space on offense. IMO greens biggest asset to GS is his Rodman/pit-bull and aggressive attitude that clears space for the more “sleepy” GS stars to do their thing. But I’m working under the assumption you have to cut costs somewhere.

KD, is it basically a coin flip if he will be great again? Even at a 10% chance he returns mostly to form you have to take it right? Most teams would mortgage their futures take a 10% chance of being the best team in the NBA for 5 years?

Tequilla

As long as they can afford it, they will pay everybody

The NBA rules are stupid from a luxury tax perspective in trying to keep great teams together

2001400ex

Tequilla said:

As long as they can afford it, they will pay everybody

The NBA rules are stupid from a luxury tax perspective in trying to keep great teams together

Not really. Shit teams like OKC won't pay it. You gotta pay to play. It's fair in that it let's us watch greatness if the owners want to do it.

Tequilla

The revenue streams for the Warriors are way different than OKC

Nothing about the Warriors ownership has suggested to me that they’d break up a championship core because of $$$

allpurpleallgold

2001400ex said:

Tequilla said:

As long as they can afford it, they will pay everybody

The NBA rules are stupid from a luxury tax perspective in trying to keep great teams together

Not really. Shit teams like OKC won't pay it. You gotta pay to play. It's fair in that it let's us watch greatness if the owners want to do it.

OKC is locked into paying the tax for years.

GDS

Tequilla said:

The revenue streams for the Warriors are way different than OKC

Nothing about the Warriors ownership has suggested to me that they’d break up a championship core because of $$$

But there is a limit...is one guy really worth a billion dollars for 4 years (3 assuming he misses 19-20)

Houhusky

GDS said:

Tequilla said:

The revenue streams for the Warriors are way different than OKC

Nothing about the Warriors ownership has suggested to me that they’d break up a championship core because of $$$

But there is a limit...is one guy really worth a billion dollars for 4 years (3 assuming he misses 19-20)

Does Klay possible knee injury play at all into the calculation? if its a severe knee ligament tear it could be 7-9 months of rehab time for him too?

GDS

Houhusky said:

GDS said:

Tequilla said:

The revenue streams for the Warriors are way different than OKC

Nothing about the Warriors ownership has suggested to me that they’d break up a championship core because of $$$

But there is a limit...is one guy really worth a billion dollars for 4 years (3 assuming he misses 19-20)

Does Klay possible knee injury play at all into the calculation? if its a severe knee ligament tear it could be 7-9 months of rehab time for him too?

Don’t think so cause even if you let either Klay or KD walk you are still at the cap and can’t sign a replacement and no way they let both walk. If I’m ownership I say if all 4 of Steph, KD, Klay and Green want max deals I gotta let one walk. The difference of a billion dollars to sign all 4 vs just signing 3 of those 4 is way too cost prohibitive

PurpleThrobber

GDS said:

Houhusky said:

GDS said:

Tequilla said:

The revenue streams for the Warriors are way different than OKC

Nothing about the Warriors ownership has suggested to me that they’d break up a championship core because of $$$

But there is a limit...is one guy really worth a billion dollars for 4 years (3 assuming he misses 19-20)

Does Klay possible knee injury play at all into the calculation? if its a severe knee ligament tear it could be 7-9 months of rehab time for him too?

Don’t think so cause even if you let either Klay or KD walk you are still at the cap and can’t sign a replacement and no way they let both walk. If I’m ownership I say if all 4 of Steph, KD, Klay and Green want max deals I gotta let one walk. The difference of a billion dollars to sign all 4 vs just signing 3 of those 4 is way too cost prohibitive

The Warriors ownership group are all billionaires.

They DNGAF about the luxury tax.

They are all playing the long game and more championships just increase the value of the franchise.

allpurpleallgold

PurpleThrobber said:

GDS said:

Houhusky said:

GDS said:

Tequilla said:

The revenue streams for the Warriors are way different than OKC

Nothing about the Warriors ownership has suggested to me that they’d break up a championship core because of $$$

But there is a limit...is one guy really worth a billion dollars for 4 years (3 assuming he misses 19-20)

Does Klay possible knee injury play at all into the calculation? if its a severe knee ligament tear it could be 7-9 months of rehab time for him too?

Don’t think so cause even if you let either Klay or KD walk you are still at the cap and can’t sign a replacement and no way they let both walk. If I’m ownership I say if all 4 of Steph, KD, Klay and Green want max deals I gotta let one walk. The difference of a billion dollars to sign all 4 vs just signing 3 of those 4 is way too cost prohibitive

The Warriors ownership group are all billionaires.

They DNGAF about the luxury tax.

They are all playing the long game and more championships just increase the value of the franchise.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/warriors/warriors-franchise-value-increases-400m-35b-latest-forbes-report?amp

They could lose the billion and still be up 2 billion on the deal.

Tequilla

GDS said:

Houhusky said:

GDS said:

Tequilla said:

The revenue streams for the Warriors are way different than OKC

Nothing about the Warriors ownership has suggested to me that they’d break up a championship core because of $$$

But there is a limit...is one guy really worth a billion dollars for 4 years (3 assuming he misses 19-20)

Does Klay possible knee injury play at all into the calculation? if its a severe knee ligament tear it could be 7-9 months of rehab time for him too?

Don’t think so cause even if you let either Klay or KD walk you are still at the cap and can’t sign a replacement and no way they let both walk. If I’m ownership I say if all 4 of Steph, KD, Klay and Green want max deals I gotta let one walk. The difference of a billion dollars to sign all 4 vs just signing 3 of those 4 is way too cost prohibitive

I’m letting Draymond walk if it comes down to it

GDS

Tequilla said:

GDS said:

Houhusky said:

GDS said:

Tequilla said:

The revenue streams for the Warriors are way different than OKC

Nothing about the Warriors ownership has suggested to me that they’d break up a championship core because of $$$

But there is a limit...is one guy really worth a billion dollars for 4 years (3 assuming he misses 19-20)

Does Klay possible knee injury play at all into the calculation? if its a severe knee ligament tear it could be 7-9 months of rehab time for him too?

Don’t think so cause even if you let either Klay or KD walk you are still at the cap and can’t sign a replacement and no way they let both walk. If I’m ownership I say if all 4 of Steph, KD, Klay and Green want max deals I gotta let one walk. The difference of a billion dollars to sign all 4 vs just signing 3 of those 4 is way too cost prohibitive

I’m letting Draymond walk if it comes down to it

I’d do the same. I don’t think he’s a max contract player.

allpurpleallgold

I’ve just learned, via Twitter, that Klay tore his acl.

I think Draymond gets traded this summer. You can’t ask Steph to carry the offense like that for a whole season.

They basically have no chance at winning it next year anyways. Trade Draymond now before he’s a free agent.

Tequilla

I’m not sure they have a choice at this point

They won’t have the depth to be a playoff team

It’s important for them to get younger

FreeChavez

Even without the injury, they should let one of the four go(and my guy would be green prior to injury). Green's attitude eventually wears thin on everyone, and you can always find a very good defender for much cheaper than you'll find any of the talent such as klay, steph, KD.

With KD's injury, I would let him walk this year. If he hadn't been hurt I could see signing him to make a couple more runs, but with his injury you're going to pay a ridiculous amount of $ for a guy who won't play in year one of his deal. There are also no historical examples of players staying elite after this injury. Putting that much $ into a guy on the off chance he's the first guy to come back isn't a risk that good franchises make.

This is one of those moments where historically good franchises(like the patriots) cut bait on a player maybe one year too soon, but lets them compete for a decade longer. They would be best to keep at least curry/klay and at least green for remainder of his contract and then fill in the roster with pieces which can help if there are injuries. Steph isn't the pillar of health and age isn't going to exactly shine brightly on improving his ability to stay on the floor. Getting guys to keep them in games and let curry play a little less will be more of the Spurs model and how they stayed good for 10+ years.

dnc

FreeChavez said:

Even without the injury, they should let one of the four go(and my guy would be green prior to injury). Green's attitude eventually wears thin on everyone, and you can always find a very good defender for much cheaper than you'll find any of the talent such as klay, steph, KD.

With KD's injury, I would let him walk this year. If he hadn't been hurt I could see signing him to make a couple more runs, but with his injury you're going to pay a ridiculous amount of $ for a guy who won't play in year one of his deal. There are also no historical examples of players staying elite after this injury. Putting that much $ into a guy on the off chance he's the first guy to come back isn't a risk that good franchises make.

This is one of those moments where historically good franchises(like the patriots) cut bait on a player maybe one year too soon, but lets them compete for a decade longer. They would be best to keep at least curry/klay and at least green for remainder of his contract and then fill in the roster with pieces which can help if there are injuries. Steph isn't the pillar of health and age isn't going to exactly shine brightly on improving his ability to stay on the floor. Getting guys to keep them in games and let curry play a little less will be more of the Spurs model and how they stayed good for 10+ years.

I agree with this.

I don't think this is what GS will do though.

Either way, I think the dynasty is over.

PurpleThrobber

FreeChavez said:

Even without the injury, they should let one of the four go(and my guy would be green prior to injury). Green's attitude eventually wears thin on everyone, and you can always find a very good defender for much cheaper than you'll find any of the talent such as klay, steph, KD.

With KD's injury, I would let him walk this year. If he hadn't been hurt I could see signing him to make a couple more runs, but with his injury you're going to pay a ridiculous amount of $ for a guy who won't play in year one of his deal. There are also no historical examples of players staying elite after this injury. Putting that much $ into a guy on the off chance he's the first guy to come back isn't a risk that good franchises make.

This is one of those moments where historically good franchises(like the patriots) cut bait on a player maybe one year too soon, but lets them compete for a decade longer. They would be best to keep at least curry/klay and at least green for remainder of his contract and then fill in the roster with pieces which can help if there are injuries. Steph isn't the pillar of health and age isn't going to exactly shine brightly on improving his ability to stay on the floor. Getting guys to keep them in games and let curry play a little less will be more of the Spurs model and how they stayed good for 10+ years.

This is exactly why you re-sign KD (or try to). GS will eat shit for a year while KD and Klay re-hab. Steph is going to get the shit beat out of him next year. GS is gonna semi-suck next year - letting KD walk puts the entire concept of uncertainty back in play. And the uncertainty of KD coming back healthy is a lot less than the uncertainty of whoever the fuck GS can attract via free agency, trades or the draft. KD is still gonna be 7'0" tall, he's still gonna be able to get a shot off over any human on the planet. He's still gonna be barely 30 years old...at LEAST 8 years left in his basketball body. It's not like he's playing in the 80's and 90's and getting physically manhandled every night by Rodman or Anthony Mason.

Now, if GS can pull a hail mary and sign Kawhi, well, that's a different tale.

GDS

PurpleThrobber said:

FreeChavez said:

Even without the injury, they should let one of the four go(and my guy would be green prior to injury). Green's attitude eventually wears thin on everyone, and you can always find a very good defender for much cheaper than you'll find any of the talent such as klay, steph, KD.

With KD's injury, I would let him walk this year. If he hadn't been hurt I could see signing him to make a couple more runs, but with his injury you're going to pay a ridiculous amount of $ for a guy who won't play in year one of his deal. There are also no historical examples of players staying elite after this injury. Putting that much $ into a guy on the off chance he's the first guy to come back isn't a risk that good franchises make.

This is one of those moments where historically good franchises(like the patriots) cut bait on a player maybe one year too soon, but lets them compete for a decade longer. They would be best to keep at least curry/klay and at least green for remainder of his contract and then fill in the roster with pieces which can help if there are injuries. Steph isn't the pillar of health and age isn't going to exactly shine brightly on improving his ability to stay on the floor. Getting guys to keep them in games and let curry play a little less will be more of the Spurs model and how they stayed good for 10+ years.

This is exactly why you re-sign KD (or try to). GS will eat shit for a year while KD and Klay re-hab. Steph is going to get the shit beat out of him next year. GS is gonna semi-suck next year - letting KD walk puts the entire concept of uncertainty back in play. And the uncertainty of KD coming back healthy is a lot less than the uncertainty of whoever the fuck GS can attract via free agency, trades or the draft. KD is still gonna be 7'0" tall, he's still gonna be able to get a shot off over any human on the planet. He's still gonna be barely 30 years old...at LEAST 8 years left in his basketball body. It's not like he's playing in the 80's and 90's and getting physically manhandled every night by Rodman or Anthony Mason.

Now, if GS can pull a hail mary and sign Kawhi, well, that's a different tale.

No way GS could sign Kawhi unless it was a sign and trade and they would have to deal one of the 4 stars to make the financials work. Even if they let both KD and Klay walk they still dont have the cap space to sign a max player.