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Where Exactly Are We Headed: A Response
DoogCourics
Member Posts: 5,739
Huge fucking post coming in. Worse than Tequilla, so apologies up front.
But I've been drinking Maker's 46 and if you don't want to read it then just fuck off right away and don't read it. If you're actually interested in the trajectory of this program and are demanding better results, then read on.
@Fire_Marshall_Bill posed the following question in a thread earlier tonight:
We're 10-4. We were 9-4 during Snark's last year....We won an awful league that's half a notch better than the MW. We lost to Cal, a total loser program...
Auburn beat us. We're 7-5 in the SEC W. Maybe 8-4. It's not like I want the guy fired, but where exactly are we headed? You need athletes and speed. Development and coaching are important, but they only take you so far.
Plenty of guys in the game thread and random threads on the Hardcore board mentioned they were done with Pete because he can't win big games. I assume most were anger or alcohol fueled, but the pervasive question among the HH faithful is clear: is this program going to get over the hump under Pete?
2014: 8-6 / Loss in Cactus Bowl to Oklahoma State
2015: 7-6 / Win in Heart of Dallas Bowl over Southern Miss
2016: 12-2 / Pac-12 Champion / Loss in Peach Bowl to Alabama
2017: 10-3 / Loss in Fiesta Bowl to Penn State
2018: 10-4 / Pac-12 Champion / Loss in Rose Bowl to Ohio State
This shit looks like a mixed bag. I see three 10 win seasons in a row, two Pac-12 Championships in three years, and three straight NY6 Bowls that all ended up losses.
It leads back to Bill's question: Where are we headed? Pete can clearly coach and develop, but does UW have the athletes to compete with the Elite of CFB.
That's where this post comes in:
I know that a lot posters do not follow recruiting or barely follow it, so the only base of knowledge is record and bowl results. Without knowledge of the recruiting base and talent acquisition portion of the program (which is just as important as coaching and development), it can be hard for the faithful to know if the program is actually improving over what Sark was doing.
2014: 5 Year Team Talent Composite Not Available Anymore (But it was somewhere in the 30's when I saw it last year)
2015: 5 Year Team Talent Composite - 29th in Country - 0 Five Stars - 15 Four Stars - 56 Three Stars - 10 Two Stars (or less) - 85.09 Average Composite Score
2016: 5 Year Team Talent Composite - 24th in Country - 0 Five Stars - 21 Four Stars - 56 Three Stars - 8 Two Stars (or less) - 85.73 Average Composite Score
2017: 5 Year Team Talent Composite - 24th in Country - 0 Five Stars - 23 Four Stars - 55 Three Stars - 7 Two Stars (or less) - 85.98 Average Composite Score
2018: 5 Year Team Talent Composite - 20th in Country - 1 Five Star - 31 Four Stars - 47 Three Stars - 6 Two Stars (or Less) - 87.25 Average Composite Score
As you can see, the last three years of success has largely been built upon the backs of lesser talent that has been developed and coached up. But suddenly the roster in 2018 took a huge jump up with nearly 10 three stars replaced with 10 Blue Chip players.
Next season has another jump with 6 more Blue Chip players replacing lesser tiered players.
Departures - 5 Four Stars - 11 Three Stars
Additions - 11 Four Stars - 9 Three Stars
2019: 5 Year Team Talent Composite - Rank Not Available - 1 Five Star - 37 Four Stars - 45 Three Stars - Average Composite Score Not Calculated
There is still the chance to add:
1 Five Star Kyle Ford
4 Four Stars Puka Nacua, Daniel Heimuli, Henry To'oto'o, Asa Turner
There is a well known Blue Chip Ratio that Championship level teams all hit, at least 50% of the roster must be Five or Four Star recruits:
https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/8/22/17606048/blue-chip-ratio-2018
UW has been a major overachiever trying to play on the level of the big boys, but as you said Bill, you need the athletes and speed to keep up. In the NY6 games, though the scores have been close the talent gap has been large.
If you don't think this is a HUGE FUCKING DEAL you're an idiot.
In 2016 Bama had the #1 5 Year Team Talent Composite, while UW was #24, a gap of 40 fucking Blue Chip recruits. UW lost by 17 points.
In 2017 PSU was #19, while UW was #24. Close, but still a gap of 11 Blue Chip recruits. UW lost by 7 points.
This year tOSU was #1, while UW was #20, a gap of 34 fucking Blue Chip recruits. That's who UW lost to tonight by 5 points.
That gap is finally starting to close. In 2 years 15 three stars have been replaced on the roster by Blue Chip recruits. From 23 to 38 going into next year as it currently stands.
None of this makes up for Pete's offense, Bush's play calling, Browning throwing it 54 fucking times, or Gaskin only getting 25 carries. It also doesn't make up for the defense struggling for the first half of the game. It definitely doesn't make up for the constant fucking slow starts to games. And nothing, nothing, nothing can make up for not recruiting a QB to challenge Browning and letting him start for 4 years (that issue has finally been remedied with nothing but Blue Chip recruits lining the QB room).
That said, this program is headed in the right direction. 10 win seasons in three straight seasons for the first time ever. Pac-12 Championships for the first time in a long time. Going up against the elite of the college football world and realizing UW is on the fucking cusp of joining the group.
It's an exhaustingly slow build, but it is a solid foundation being laid brick by brick. Pete is fucking boring and he's stubborn as fuck, but he's building something sustainable, and the winning on the field is begetting better recruiting classes, which will beget more wins.
Don't believe me? Look at the recruiting classes:
2015 Recruiting Class - 26th in Country - 5 Four Stars - 18 Three Stars - 85.77 Average Composite
2016 Recruiting Class - 29th in Country - 7 Four Stars - 10 Three Stars - 87.42 Average Composite
2017 Recruiting Class - 22nd in Country - 9 Four Stars - 9 Three Stars - 88.45 Average Composite
2018 Recruiting Class - 16th in Country - 10 Four Stars - 10 Three Stars - 90.21 Average Composite
2019 Recruiting Class - 16th in Country - 11 Four Stars - 9 Three Stars - 89.74 Average Composite
(Again, 1 Five and 4 Four Stars still on the table)
Be frustrated with Pete's Offense. Be frustrated with Pete's stubborness. Be frustrated with Pete's coaches like Gregory, PaoPao, Bonerpop, or Lubick. Be frustrated with Hamdan's play calling (but fuck off if you question Lake's calling as he had a better total defense and scoring defense than Kwat has had in the last 4 years in his first year calling plays).
And this isn't being a doog. We all want better, and we all deserve better. But replacing Pete or questioning if he's the right coach isn't better. Demanding him to make changes to his staff is better. Demanding him to change his offensive philosophy is better. Demanding better recruiters at certain positions is better.
But if you're saying Pete isn't the guy for the job, or that you're giving up on him and want him gone, you're a fucking retard and no one can fucking help you.
This post may have some of you thinking of me in a new way:
But you all can fuck yourselves:
But I've been drinking Maker's 46 and if you don't want to read it then just fuck off right away and don't read it. If you're actually interested in the trajectory of this program and are demanding better results, then read on.
@Fire_Marshall_Bill posed the following question in a thread earlier tonight:
We're 10-4. We were 9-4 during Snark's last year....We won an awful league that's half a notch better than the MW. We lost to Cal, a total loser program...
Auburn beat us. We're 7-5 in the SEC W. Maybe 8-4. It's not like I want the guy fired, but where exactly are we headed? You need athletes and speed. Development and coaching are important, but they only take you so far.
Plenty of guys in the game thread and random threads on the Hardcore board mentioned they were done with Pete because he can't win big games. I assume most were anger or alcohol fueled, but the pervasive question among the HH faithful is clear: is this program going to get over the hump under Pete?
2014: 8-6 / Loss in Cactus Bowl to Oklahoma State
2015: 7-6 / Win in Heart of Dallas Bowl over Southern Miss
2016: 12-2 / Pac-12 Champion / Loss in Peach Bowl to Alabama
2017: 10-3 / Loss in Fiesta Bowl to Penn State
2018: 10-4 / Pac-12 Champion / Loss in Rose Bowl to Ohio State
This shit looks like a mixed bag. I see three 10 win seasons in a row, two Pac-12 Championships in three years, and three straight NY6 Bowls that all ended up losses.
It leads back to Bill's question: Where are we headed? Pete can clearly coach and develop, but does UW have the athletes to compete with the Elite of CFB.
That's where this post comes in:
I know that a lot posters do not follow recruiting or barely follow it, so the only base of knowledge is record and bowl results. Without knowledge of the recruiting base and talent acquisition portion of the program (which is just as important as coaching and development), it can be hard for the faithful to know if the program is actually improving over what Sark was doing.
2014: 5 Year Team Talent Composite Not Available Anymore (But it was somewhere in the 30's when I saw it last year)
2015: 5 Year Team Talent Composite - 29th in Country - 0 Five Stars - 15 Four Stars - 56 Three Stars - 10 Two Stars (or less) - 85.09 Average Composite Score
2016: 5 Year Team Talent Composite - 24th in Country - 0 Five Stars - 21 Four Stars - 56 Three Stars - 8 Two Stars (or less) - 85.73 Average Composite Score
2017: 5 Year Team Talent Composite - 24th in Country - 0 Five Stars - 23 Four Stars - 55 Three Stars - 7 Two Stars (or less) - 85.98 Average Composite Score
2018: 5 Year Team Talent Composite - 20th in Country - 1 Five Star - 31 Four Stars - 47 Three Stars - 6 Two Stars (or Less) - 87.25 Average Composite Score
As you can see, the last three years of success has largely been built upon the backs of lesser talent that has been developed and coached up. But suddenly the roster in 2018 took a huge jump up with nearly 10 three stars replaced with 10 Blue Chip players.
Next season has another jump with 6 more Blue Chip players replacing lesser tiered players.
Departures - 5 Four Stars - 11 Three Stars
Additions - 11 Four Stars - 9 Three Stars
2019: 5 Year Team Talent Composite - Rank Not Available - 1 Five Star - 37 Four Stars - 45 Three Stars - Average Composite Score Not Calculated
There is still the chance to add:
1 Five Star Kyle Ford
4 Four Stars Puka Nacua, Daniel Heimuli, Henry To'oto'o, Asa Turner
There is a well known Blue Chip Ratio that Championship level teams all hit, at least 50% of the roster must be Five or Four Star recruits:
https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/8/22/17606048/blue-chip-ratio-2018
UW has been a major overachiever trying to play on the level of the big boys, but as you said Bill, you need the athletes and speed to keep up. In the NY6 games, though the scores have been close the talent gap has been large.
If you don't think this is a HUGE FUCKING DEAL you're an idiot.
In 2016 Bama had the #1 5 Year Team Talent Composite, while UW was #24, a gap of 40 fucking Blue Chip recruits. UW lost by 17 points.
In 2017 PSU was #19, while UW was #24. Close, but still a gap of 11 Blue Chip recruits. UW lost by 7 points.
This year tOSU was #1, while UW was #20, a gap of 34 fucking Blue Chip recruits. That's who UW lost to tonight by 5 points.
That gap is finally starting to close. In 2 years 15 three stars have been replaced on the roster by Blue Chip recruits. From 23 to 38 going into next year as it currently stands.
None of this makes up for Pete's offense, Bush's play calling, Browning throwing it 54 fucking times, or Gaskin only getting 25 carries. It also doesn't make up for the defense struggling for the first half of the game. It definitely doesn't make up for the constant fucking slow starts to games. And nothing, nothing, nothing can make up for not recruiting a QB to challenge Browning and letting him start for 4 years (that issue has finally been remedied with nothing but Blue Chip recruits lining the QB room).
That said, this program is headed in the right direction. 10 win seasons in three straight seasons for the first time ever. Pac-12 Championships for the first time in a long time. Going up against the elite of the college football world and realizing UW is on the fucking cusp of joining the group.
It's an exhaustingly slow build, but it is a solid foundation being laid brick by brick. Pete is fucking boring and he's stubborn as fuck, but he's building something sustainable, and the winning on the field is begetting better recruiting classes, which will beget more wins.
Don't believe me? Look at the recruiting classes:
2015 Recruiting Class - 26th in Country - 5 Four Stars - 18 Three Stars - 85.77 Average Composite
2016 Recruiting Class - 29th in Country - 7 Four Stars - 10 Three Stars - 87.42 Average Composite
2017 Recruiting Class - 22nd in Country - 9 Four Stars - 9 Three Stars - 88.45 Average Composite
2018 Recruiting Class - 16th in Country - 10 Four Stars - 10 Three Stars - 90.21 Average Composite
2019 Recruiting Class - 16th in Country - 11 Four Stars - 9 Three Stars - 89.74 Average Composite
(Again, 1 Five and 4 Four Stars still on the table)
Be frustrated with Pete's Offense. Be frustrated with Pete's stubborness. Be frustrated with Pete's coaches like Gregory, PaoPao, Bonerpop, or Lubick. Be frustrated with Hamdan's play calling (but fuck off if you question Lake's calling as he had a better total defense and scoring defense than Kwat has had in the last 4 years in his first year calling plays).
And this isn't being a doog. We all want better, and we all deserve better. But replacing Pete or questioning if he's the right coach isn't better. Demanding him to make changes to his staff is better. Demanding him to change his offensive philosophy is better. Demanding better recruiters at certain positions is better.
But if you're saying Pete isn't the guy for the job, or that you're giving up on him and want him gone, you're a fucking retard and no one can fucking help you.
This post may have some of you thinking of me in a new way:
But you all can fuck yourselves:
Comments
None of this makes up for Pete's offense, Bush's play calling, Browning throwing it 54 fucking times, or Gaskin only getting 25 carries.
Be frustrated with Hamdan's play calling
the season is over and the program is doomed.
2019 ALAMO BOWL RUNNER UP HERE WE COME
UW/Pete has to be able to beat teams that have better “talent” or this is the cap... UW is never going to have more 4 and 5 stars than Clemson, Alabama, Ohio state, UT, Georgia, USC, tamu, Michigan, Norte dame, penn state, or 5-10 other schools with any sort of regularity.
The system is decent at winning games he is supposed to and good at not getting blown out in a loss to teams he is supposed to lose too.
Big games, important games, are won by players transcending the scheme and coaching and putting everyone on their back and dragging the team to victory...
Pete’s culture and scheme is so strict and ridged there is an upward cap that prevents players transcending the game, he can’t win the games he isn’t supposed to win like he could at Boise.
Yah yah, recruiting is important, just wait till 2021! Then the offense will work!
Getting embarrassed 3 straight games is about more than just talent. It's coaching. It's a mentality.
Covered that as well:
But I've been drinking Maker's 46 and if you don't want to read it then just fuck off right away and don't read it.
Also the gifs and obligatory TL:DR.
Honestly I did those with you in mind.
Does he have a single win against a team that had more talent and was decently coached? a ranked Stanford team is like his best win in 5 years?