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Hey Tequila
jecornel
Member Posts: 9,726
So you are telling me that 38 yarder down the pipe is a 50/50 kick for a college kicker? I know stats are for losers.
Comments
Second, you have a fundamental flaw in your assumption that kicks are all equal …
We know that kick make % differs based on distance and 30 yards is different than 38 … so there's that.
Moreover, there's a difference in the idea that kicks in the 1st quarter are the same as kicks to win the game. If you think that's the case then you've never played sports in your life. Some handle pressure better than others.
I haven't seen any stats/data on this and I'm not interested in building this out. However, my observation is that the make % for kickers in these high pressure/leverage spots is typically worse than their usual averages.
Here's a really good example:
Daniel Carlson is as good of a college kicker as I've seen in the last 5-10 years. Huge leg. Very accurate. Over his 4-year career at Auburn, he made 58 of 64 under 40 yards and 79 of 93 from uder 50 yards. Yet, he gets to the NFL and all of a sudden he couldn't make a kick and lasted 2 whole weeks. Why is that? Did he all of a sudden forget how to kick the ball?
Acting like making pressure kicks is just easy like its warmup is just fucking stupid. Not all kicks are the same. Just the way it is.
That MBA is paying off
You clearly look like you have the stats readily available … so fucking share the link
If you don't think that I haven't tried to find the direct source that you are referencing then you're an even bigger idiot than I give you credit for.
This sure doesn't look like the detail that you put above …
https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/individual/757
I'm depressed enough to calculate the percentages:
My guess is that given that a 38 yard kick is closer to the bottom end of the 30-39 range and on the high end of the 40-49 range the typical make % for a 38 yard field goal without looking at more detail at somewhere in the 65-70% range for success.
The other missing part of the equation would be what's the situational difference of making a kick in a comparable situation (i.e. high pressure situation to tie/win the game under 2 minutes or whatnot) as I'd hypothesize that you're probably going to see a below average performance in those situations as rushes are allowed to sell out in those situations (not worrying about the fake), extra adrenaline from the kicker may lead to a break down in mechanics, etc. Probably reasonable to think that you're looking at something like a 10-15% reduction in performance in those situations at minimum … which would bring the expected make % of a 38 yard FG in that situation to probably somewhere in the 60% range or so … which is far from a sure thing.
What's actually really interesting in looking at the stats you've provided is the difference between extra points and FGs from 0-19 as they are essentially the same kick with the exception of the hash marks being in play on the 0-19 kicks.
The 0-19 FG's were surprisingly rare. Not sure if it's due to a glitch in ESPN's numbers or what. Here are how the numbers broke down:
When I saw the play and in the highlights that followed, I saw Oregon get pressure off of their defensive right (our lines left) and that's right in the area where a left footed kicker probably could see that out of the corner of his eye. It's a little thing but perhaps that got him to rush that kick just a bit resulting in additional hook on the kick.
What probably is bothering me the most about all of this is that Henry's got the leg and I am not convinced that he can't be a pretty good kicker. Perhaps that's his preference to kick from that hash but it just seems so much better to me to draw that kick in ... particularly in pressure situations as you're going to be far more likely to either rush or overkick (both result in a pull) versus pushing or blocking the kick (which would usually come from not getting through on the kick).
The other thing that I definitely have thought about is how much better do you feel if we run one more play and we go from a 38 yard kick to a 35 yard kick? How much worse do you feel about the kick if it goes from a 38 yard kick to a 41 yard kick?
Every close game comes down to a couple plays. From a UW perspective, the five crucial plays were the Oregon TD right before half, the missed FG by Henry, the FS check to a fade by Browning, the third and 11 Oregon converted in OT, and the final TD.
There were other big plays like Murphy's terrible tackle and effort on Oregon's first TD. That was inexcusable and Murphy played with a lot more fire from then on.
But I do think that the general premise of if there were 10 really key moments in the game yesterday … Oregon benefited on probably 7 or 8 of those 10 plays and ultimately that was the difference in the game.