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Blue Wave Fupdate

YellowSnowYellowSnow Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 35,396 Founders Club
in Tug Tavern
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

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  • 2001400ex2001400ex Member Posts: 29,457
    RaceBannon said:

    Awesome thanks for the update

    I was afraid he was going to pick the GOP

    I heard from you that Rasmussen was the only reliable poll for 2016.

    http://m.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_larry_j_sabato/our_final_2016_picks
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  • YellowSnowYellowSnow Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 35,396 Founders Club
    RaceBannon said:

    Awesome thanks for the update

    I was afraid he was going to pick the GOP

    The thing is, I don't think 2016 really discredited Nate's skillz at a prognosticator. On election day in 2016, he gave Trump a 1 in 3 chance of winning which while not exactly a toss up, still put the odds of it happening as a realistic possibly which is something none of the other left leaning guys were doing. Everyone else had Hills as a lock.
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  • RaceBannonRaceBannon Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 105,779 Founders Club
    2001400ex said:

    RaceBannon said:

    Awesome thanks for the update

    I was afraid he was going to pick the GOP

    I heard from you that Rasmussen was the only reliable poll for 2016.

    http://m.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_larry_j_sabato/our_final_2016_picks
    No you didn't. Don't try to run cover for the idiots that picked Hilary right up to the end. Like you
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  • RaceBannonRaceBannon Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 105,779 Founders Club
    Having said that the democrats are supposed to win and Trump will get the blame

    McConnell and Ryan are doing their best to keep GOP voter turn out down. Democrats won't show up because they love Pelosi or Schumer but because they hate Trump

    Trump will make it about him by November and as the head coach he gets the credit or blame
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  • YellowSnowYellowSnow Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 35,396 Founders Club
    RaceBannon said:

    YellowSnow said:

    RaceBannon said:

    Awesome thanks for the update

    I was afraid he was going to pick the GOP

    The thing is, I don't think 2016 really discredited Nate's skillz at a prognosticator. On election day in 2016, he gave Trump a 1 in 3 chance of winning which while not exactly a toss up, still put the odds of it happening as a realistic possibly which is something none of the other left leaning guys were doing. Everyone else had Hills as a lock.
    As Uncle Rush will tell you pollsters always adjust at the end to protect their job

    Polls were used for 18 months to establish an aura of inevitability for Hills


    I stopped listening to what Uncle Rush had to say 14+ years ago.

    I paid pretty close attention to Silver's site through 2016 and he objectively raised or lowered Trump's chances as new data became available. I think were even some weeks we're he even game him closer to like a 40% chance of winning.
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  • 2001400ex2001400ex Member Posts: 29,457
    RaceBannon said:

    YellowSnow said:

    RaceBannon said:

    Awesome thanks for the update

    I was afraid he was going to pick the GOP

    The thing is, I don't think 2016 really discredited Nate's skillz at a prognosticator. On election day in 2016, he gave Trump a 1 in 3 chance of winning which while not exactly a toss up, still put the odds of it happening as a realistic possibly which is something none of the other left leaning guys were doing. Everyone else had Hills as a lock.
    As Uncle Rush will tell you pollsters always adjust at the end to protect their job

    Polls were used for 18 months to establish an aura of inevitability for Hills


    What is your point? That Huffington Post blows dick? Tell me something I didn't know.
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  • 2001400ex2001400ex Member Posts: 29,457
    RaceBannon said:

    2001400ex said:

    RaceBannon said:

    Awesome thanks for the update

    I was afraid he was going to pick the GOP

    I heard from you that Rasmussen was the only reliable poll for 2016.

    http://m.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_larry_j_sabato/our_final_2016_picks
    No you didn't. Don't try to run cover for the idiots that picked Hilary right up to the end. Like you
    Yes. You did say that Rasmussen was the most accurate. Defending their outlier poll on Trump's approval rating. They also say that 36% of blacks support Trump. Haha. Ok!
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  • RaceBannonRaceBannon Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 105,779 Founders Club
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

    If you think 71 to 28% and an electoral landslide for Hillary on November 8 is good then have at it

    Silver fucked up with the rest of them.
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  • YellowSnowYellowSnow Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 35,396 Founders Club
    RaceBannon said:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

    If you think 71 to 28% and an electoral landslide for Hillary on November 8 is good then have at it

    Silver fucked up with the rest of them.

    Upsets happen. That's why we play the game.


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  • RaceBannonRaceBannon Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 105,779 Founders Club
    If I hadn't called it accurately I would agree

    I wasn't blinded by bias and bad math
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  • SledogSledog Member Posts: 33,839 Standard Supporter
    Democrats touting poles after the last assured win is special! Keep the tissues and revolvers handy.
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  • YellowSnowYellowSnow Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 35,396 Founders Club
    RaceBannon said:

    If I hadn't called it accurately I would agree

    I wasn't blinded by bias and bad math

    Look you deserve a lot of credit Race for calling it for Trump in 2015 in these pages. I wasn't lurking yet in the Tug, but I'll take your word on it. That said, it was a prediction based on a gut feeling and it worked out. Ball could have very easily bounced the other way.

    I for one have no idea how 2018 is going to work out or 2020 for that matter. 75% for Dems to take the House feels a bit high, but I think it's 50/50 at worse.
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  • GrundleStiltzkinGrundleStiltzkin Member Posts: 61,499 Standard Supporter
    Really all Trump needed to do is keep his mouth shut and let the economy, stupid, do the talking. But he can't.
    I have no data to back up my SPECULATION, but I think the Putin meeting hurt Trump too.
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  • ThomasFremontThomasFremont Member Posts: 13,325
    YellowSnow said:

    RaceBannon said:

    GrundleStiltzkin said:

    Really all Trump needed to do is keep his mouth shut and let the economy, stupid, do the talking. But he can't.
    I have no data to back up my SPECULATION, but I think the Putin meeting hurt Trump too.

    I have faith in My Americans that 81% of them have no idea there was a meeting
    The low info voter has always been the backbone of American Democracy.
    Our resident Sun Doovil is proof
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  • oregonblitzkriegoregonblitzkrieg Member Posts: 15,288
    The thinking man's leftard is skrong in this thread.
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