The thing is, I don't think 2016 really discredited Nate's skillz at a prognosticator. On election day in 2016, he gave Trump a 1 in 3 chance of winning which while not exactly a toss up, still put the odds of it happening as a realistic possibly which is something none of the other left leaning guys were doing. Everyone else had Hills as a lock.
The thing is, I don't think 2016 really discredited Nate's skillz at a prognosticator. On election day in 2016, he gave Trump a 1 in 3 chance of winning which while not exactly a toss up, still put the odds of it happening as a realistic possibly which is something none of the other left leaning guys were doing. Everyone else had Hills as a lock.
As Uncle Rush will tell you pollsters always adjust at the end to protect their job
Polls were used for 18 months to establish an aura of inevitability for Hills
Having said that the democrats are supposed to win and Trump will get the blame
McConnell and Ryan are doing their best to keep GOP voter turn out down. Democrats won't show up because they love Pelosi or Schumer but because they hate Trump
Trump will make it about him by November and as the head coach he gets the credit or blame
The thing is, I don't think 2016 really discredited Nate's skillz at a prognosticator. On election day in 2016, he gave Trump a 1 in 3 chance of winning which while not exactly a toss up, still put the odds of it happening as a realistic possibly which is something none of the other left leaning guys were doing. Everyone else had Hills as a lock.
As Uncle Rush will tell you pollsters always adjust at the end to protect their job
Polls were used for 18 months to establish an aura of inevitability for Hills
I stopped listening to what Uncle Rush had to say 14+ years ago.
I paid pretty close attention to Silver's site through 2016 and he objectively raised or lowered Trump's chances as new data became available. I think were even some weeks we're he even game him closer to like a 40% chance of winning.
The thing is, I don't think 2016 really discredited Nate's skillz at a prognosticator. On election day in 2016, he gave Trump a 1 in 3 chance of winning which while not exactly a toss up, still put the odds of it happening as a realistic possibly which is something none of the other left leaning guys were doing. Everyone else had Hills as a lock.
As Uncle Rush will tell you pollsters always adjust at the end to protect their job
Polls were used for 18 months to establish an aura of inevitability for Hills
What is your point? That Huffington Post blows dick? Tell me something I didn't know.
No you didn't. Don't try to run cover for the idiots that picked Hilary right up to the end. Like you
Yes. You did say that Rasmussen was the most accurate. Defending their outlier poll on Trump's approval rating. They also say that 36% of blacks support Trump. Haha. Ok!
Look you deserve a lot of credit Race for calling it for Trump in 2015 in these pages. I wasn't lurking yet in the Tug, but I'll take your word on it. That said, it was a prediction based on a gut feeling and it worked out. Ball could have very easily bounced the other way.
I for one have no idea how 2018 is going to work out or 2020 for that matter. 75% for Dems to take the House feels a bit high, but I think it's 50/50 at worse.
Really all Trump needed to do is keep his mouth shut and let the economy, stupid, do the talking. But he can't. I have no data to back up my SPECULATION, but I think the Putin meeting hurt Trump too.
Really all Trump needed to do is keep his mouth shut and let the economy, stupid, do the talking. But he can't. I have no data to back up my SPECULATION, but I think the Putin meeting hurt Trump too.
I have faith in My Americans that 81% of them have no idea there was a meeting
Really all Trump needed to do is keep his mouth shut and let the economy, stupid, do the talking. But he can't. I have no data to back up my SPECULATION, but I think the Putin meeting hurt Trump too.
I have faith in My Americans that 81% of them have no idea there was a meeting
Unless YOU have proof in HAND...it’s speculation for YOU. ‘Those who know’....meaning YOU are not a ‘THOSE’. I didn’t create the English language but ‘speculation’ is pretty cut and dry. Unless you are an eye witness, YOU are speculating. Word of mouth is not proof.
Really all Trump needed to do is keep his mouth shut and let the economy, stupid, do the talking. But he can't. I have no data to back up my SPECULATION, but I think the Putin meeting hurt Trump too.
I have faith in My Americans that 81% of them have no idea there was a meeting
The low info voter has always been the backbone of American Democracy.
Really all Trump needed to do is keep his mouth shut and let the economy, stupid, do the talking. But he can't. I have no data to back up my SPECULATION, but I think the Putin meeting hurt Trump too.
I have faith in My Americans that 81% of them have no idea there was a meeting
The low info voter has always been the backbone of American Democracy.
YellowSnow
Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 34,943 
Comments
I was afraid he was going to pick the GOP
http://m.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_larry_j_sabato/our_final_2016_picks
Polls were used for 18 months to establish an aura of inevitability for Hills
McConnell and Ryan are doing their best to keep GOP voter turn out down. Democrats won't show up because they love Pelosi or Schumer but because they hate Trump
Trump will make it about him by November and as the head coach he gets the credit or blame
I paid pretty close attention to Silver's site through 2016 and he objectively raised or lowered Trump's chances as new data became available. I think were even some weeks we're he even game him closer to like a 40% chance of winning.
If you think 71 to 28% and an electoral landslide for Hillary on November 8 is good then have at it
Silver fucked up with the rest of them.
I wasn't blinded by bias and bad math
I for one have no idea how 2018 is going to work out or 2020 for that matter. 75% for Dems to take the House feels a bit high, but I think it's 50/50 at worse.
I have no data to back up my SPECULATION, but I think the Putin meeting hurt Trump too.