Follow up to my tweet on P12 recruiting vs. NFL Draft

Dennis_DeYoung

This is for the 8 years from 2008-2015 that could have produced draft eligible players for these drafts.

1st/2nd Round NFL Draft Picks over past 5 Seasons (with avg conf recruiting rank; avg 247 rating, 5* signed, 4* signed).

1. Washington - 12 (5.9; 85.2; 1, 38)
2. USC - 9 (1.3; 92.3; 20, 92)
3. UCLA - 8 (3.0; 88.6; 6, 78)
4. Stanford - 6 (5.1; 87.6; 3, 45)
5. Oregon - 4 (3.9; 87.4; 5, 57)
5. Utah - 4 (8.8; 84.2; 0, 12)
7. Colorado - 3 (9.4; 83.2; 1, 13)
8. WSU - 1 (10.6; 82.2; 0, 3)
9. OSU - 1 (9.8; 83.2; 1, 5)
10. ASU - 1 (6.0; 85.2; 1, 29)
11. Cal - 1 (6.1; 86.2; 1, 42)
12. Arizona - 0 (8.3; 84.0; 0, 17)

So for ratios...

UW had a 1st/2nd rounder for every 3.25 blue chips.
USC - 12.4
UCLA - 10.5
Stanford - 8
Oregon - 15.5
Utah - 3
Colorado - 4.7
WSU - 3
OSU - 6
ASU - 30
Cal - 43
Arizona - Div/0 error

MisterEm

Dennis_DeYoung said:

This is for the 8 years from 2008-2015 that could have produced draft eligible players for these drafts.

1st/2nd Round NFL Draft Picks over past 5 Seasons (with avg conf recruiting rank; avg 247 rating, 5* signed, 4* signed).

1. Washington - 12 (5.9; 85.2; 1, 38)
2. USC - 9 (1.3; 92.3; 20, 92)
3. UCLA - 8 (3.0; 88.6; 6, 78)
4. Stanford - 6 (5.1; 87.6; 3, 45)
5. Oregon - 4 (3.9; 87.4; 5, 57)
5. Utah - 4 (8.8; 84.2; 0, 12)
7. Colorado - 3 (9.4; 83.2; 1, 13)
8. WSU - 1 (10.6; 82.2; 0, 3)
9. OSU - 1 (9.8; 83.2; 1, 5)
10. ASU - 1 (6.0; 85.2; 1, 29)
11. Cal - 1 (6.1; 86.2; 1, 42)
12. Arizona - 0 (8.3; 84.0; 0, 17)

So for ratios...

UW had a 1st/2nd rounder for every 3.25 blue chips.
USC - 12.4
UCLA - 10.5
Stanford - 8
Oregon - 15.5
Utah - 3
Colorado - 4.7
WSU - 3
OSU - 6
ASU - 30
Cal - 43
Arizona - Div/0 error

Whittingham shining through again. 4 out of 12.

Not bad @89ute.

FireCohen

DDY did roaddawg very the maff

Dennis_DeYoung

An important implication here is that, while USC, Stanford and UCLA’s recruiting are likely to stay the same, ours is on a major upswing.

We have signed 27 blue chips in the past 3 years (as compared with 9 the prior 2). If we maintain even a similar ratio, and sign around 10 blue chips per year, we should be pumping out 3-4 top-2 round picks per year for the foreseeable future.

Next year Trey, Taylor, Byron and Jordan Miller have a real chance in the top 2 rounds IMO.

If we simply keep recruiting at the level we had last year we are going to own the conference (if we can ever sign a fucking BUCK).

Also, it’s my firm belief that if Pete makes some adjustments in recruiting we could start signing classes with 3-4 more BC players on average (basically landing us somewhere between Oregon and UCLA).

Vita and Dante were both 3 Stars. Dissly and Azeem were 2s, Kei was a 3. Lavon would’ve been a 3 on this metric.

DarnoldPalmer

dawgs206

Along with potentially having 4 players taken in the top 2 rounds (please have good medicals Miller and Murphy), we? also will see McGary, Gaskin, and Gaines taken in the mid-late rounds. That would put us? at 7 players taken overall, which would have tied us for second in this draft (Bama #1 with 12 lol, OSU, LSU, & NC State tied for #2 w/7). There's also Jojo, Jaylen Johnson, and Levi that could improve their stock with a big year.

We? saw Lake and other coaches tweeting about developing NFL players. Recruits have started to notice. Wait until next year when we have 7 players taken, and hopefully 4 in the first 2 rounds. It will make a big difference and recruits from outside of Washington will notice (we hate WA recruits anyways).

I've seen Eason's name pop up a few times. That would be hilarious. Transfers to UW only to declare before playing a game and leaving us with Haener in 2019.

Tequilla

The USC data is super damning and will only get worse under Helton

Did anybody else catch the coaching dig during the draft when talking about how Darnold showed minimal improvement from Year 1 and 2 and how much he will be coached up quickly at the NFL level?

HoustonHusky

McGary will go higher than people think...the guy is freaky athletic.

whlinder

I like this and it gives me a massive doog boner.

I am curious about the 2nd round delineation though. Either way it will be interesting, but the data could be totally different if that moves to the 3rd round, or 5th, or the whole draft, etc.

And no, I'm not going to do the work myself cause fuck that.

dnc

whlinder said:

I like this and it gives me a massive doog boner.

I am curious about the 2nd round delineation though. Either way it will be interesting, but the data could be totally different if that moves to the 3rd round, or 5th, or the whole draft, etc.

And no, I'm not going to do the work myself cause fuck that.

Agreed, fun with selective endpoints for sure

dnc

Tequilla said:

The USC data is super damning and will only get worse under Helton

Did anybody else catch the coaching dig during the draft when talking about how Darnold showed minimal improvement from Year 1 and 2 and how much he will be coached up quickly at the NFL level?

You think Helton's worse at developing players than Sark/Kiffen?

Swaye

Dennis_DeYoung said:

This is for the 8 years from 2008-2015 that could have produced draft eligible players for these drafts.

1st/2nd Round NFL Draft Picks over past 5 Seasons (with avg conf recruiting rank; avg 247 rating, 5* signed, 4* signed).

1. Washington - 12 (5.9; 85.2; 1, 38)
2. USC - 9 (1.3; 92.3; 20, 92)
3. UCLA - 8 (3.0; 88.6; 6, 78)
4. Stanford - 6 (5.1; 87.6; 3, 45)
5. Oregon - 4 (3.9; 87.4; 5, 57)
5. Utah - 4 (8.8; 84.2; 0, 12)
7. Colorado - 3 (9.4; 83.2; 1, 13)
8. WSU - 1 (10.6; 82.2; 0, 3)
9. OSU - 1 (9.8; 83.2; 1, 5)
10. ASU - 1 (6.0; 85.2; 1, 29)
11. Cal - 1 (6.1; 86.2; 1, 42)
12. Arizona - 0 (8.3; 84.0; 0, 17)

So for ratios...

UW had a 1st/2nd rounder for every 3.25 blue chips.
USC - 12.4
UCLA - 10.5
Stanford - 8
Oregon - 15.5
Utah - 3
Colorado - 4.7
WSU - 3
OSU - 6
ASU - 30
Cal - 43
Arizona - Div/0 error

AIRWOLF

dnc said:

whlinder said:

I like this and it gives me a massive doog boner.

I am curious about the 2nd round delineation though. Either way it will be interesting, but the data could be totally different if that moves to the 3rd round, or 5th, or the whole draft, etc.

And no, I'm not going to do the work myself cause fuck that.

Agreed, fun with selective endpoints for sure

I usually use Top 3 rounds, since it is basically the Top 100 players and round numbers are handy. But if you look at the charts of average Approximate Value by draft slot, the quality of picks drops off very steeply from the top pick right down to somewhere between pick 50 & 75, where things start to level out. In other words, there is some evidence that the top two rounds is actually a pretty good way to look at things and not really about being selective to shape a narrative.

Dennis_DeYoung

It’s just what the West Coast CFB dude did; but we are going to come out aces no matter how you slice it.

Next year I imagine we will have the following guys drafted:

Gaskin, Sample, Trey, Kaleb, Gaines, Johnson, Bartlett, Miller, Murphy, Rapp. JoJo will probably sign with someone.

I suspect some of our guys next year might be third rounders and that could look extra good for us... Gaines, McGary, Gaskin. Jaylen is an intriguing kid if he can stay healthy.

Can Tevis ball out at a more natural position for him?

Maybe BBK and Chico will get drafted!!! loljk

FireCohen

HoustonHusky said:

McGary will go higher than people think...the guy is freaky athletic.

And fast strategy

pat_hm

BBK day one pick imo

CuntWaffle

Still waiting for the part where you say we are FUCKED

PurpleJ

Dennis_DeYoung said:

Arizona - Div/0 error

GRONK!

Tequilla

dnc said:

Tequilla said:

The USC data is super damning and will only get worse under Helton

Did anybody else catch the coaching dig during the draft when talking about how Darnold showed minimal improvement from Year 1 and 2 and how much he will be coached up quickly at the NFL level?

You think Helton's worse at developing players than Sark/Kiffen?

Yes

And moreso, I think the area where there is going to be an even bigger gap is that Helton’s recruiting will gradually start falling off in part as we get stronger. The fact that Helton’s group is largely super lazy by offering guys we offer immediately after we offer them isn’t a good look

Neighbor2972

Dennis_DeYoung said:

UW had a 1st/2nd rounder for every 3.25 blue chips.

Utah - 3

WSU - 3

Too bad Peterman will never be able to develop talent like Whittingham and Leach

dnc

Tequilla said:

dnc said:

Tequilla said:

The USC data is super damning and will only get worse under Helton

Did anybody else catch the coaching dig during the draft when talking about how Darnold showed minimal improvement from Year 1 and 2 and how much he will be coached up quickly at the NFL level?

You think Helton's worse at developing players than Sark/Kiffen?

Yes

And moreso, I think the area where there is going to be an even bigger gap is that Helton’s recruiting will gradually start falling off in part as we get stronger. The fact that Helton’s group is largely super lazy by offering guys we offer immediately after we offer them isn’t a good look

I’m mostly with you on recruiting. I don’t think he’s any worse of a developer than his post Carroll predecessors though.