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More fake poles

2001400ex2001400ex Member Posts: 29,457
President-elect Donald Trump on Tuesday dismissed the mounting signs that he remained a highly unpopular political figure, slamming polls showing him to have a historically low approval rating for an incoming president.

"The same people who did the phony election polls, and were so wrong, are now doing approval-rating polls. They are rigged just like before," Trump tweeted.


https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/rigged-just-trump-dismisses-polls-142118348.html

In case Trump missed it, the polls were within 1% nationally. Guess facts don't matter again.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html
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Comments

  • RaceBannonRaceBannon Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 107,609 Founders Club
    He won

    Fuck off
  • 2001400ex2001400ex Member Posts: 29,457

    He won

    Fuck off

    It's your leader that's sniveling about it.

    HTH
  • greenbloodgreenblood Member Posts: 14,520
    Looks like this country needs to tuffn' up
  • dhdawgdhdawg Member Posts: 13,326
    his approval was up to almost 50% after winning.

    I think everyone now understands the con job after seeing his cabinet appointments
  • doogiedoogie Member Posts: 15,072
    2001400ex said:

    He won

    Fuck off

    It's your leader that's sniveling about it.

    HTH
    He isn't your President?
  • 2001400ex2001400ex Member Posts: 29,457
    doogie said:

    2001400ex said:

    He won

    Fuck off

    It's your leader that's sniveling about it.

    HTH
    He isn't your President?
    He is my president. But he's not the one I chose to lead the country.

    HTH
  • RaceBannonRaceBannon Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 107,609 Founders Club
    How many GOP were represented in the two polls?
  • 2001400ex2001400ex Member Posts: 29,457

    How many GOP were represented in the two polls?

    Trump isn't well liked by the GOP either.
  • RaceBannonRaceBannon Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 107,609 Founders Club
    2001400ex said:

    How many GOP were represented in the two polls?

    Trump isn't well liked by the GOP either.
    Answer the question
  • 2001400ex2001400ex Member Posts: 29,457

    2001400ex said:

    How many GOP were represented in the two polls?

    Trump isn't well liked by the GOP either.
    Answer the question
    You know the answer shitbreath.
  • RaceBannonRaceBannon Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 107,609 Founders Club
    2001400ex said:

    2001400ex said:

    How many GOP were represented in the two polls?

    Trump isn't well liked by the GOP either.
    Answer the question
    You know the answer shitbreath.
    So the pole is shit like Trump said

    Thanks for playing
  • UWhuskytskeetUWhuskytskeet Member Posts: 7,113

    How many GOP were represented in the two polls?



    http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2017/images/01/16/trump.2.pdf

    "METHODOLOGY

    A total of 1,000 adults were interviewed by telephone nationwide by live interviewers calling both landline and cell phones.

    Among the entire sample, 32% described themselves as Democrats, 24% described themselves as Republicans, and 44% described themselves as independents or members of another party."
  • RaceBannonRaceBannon Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 107,609 Founders Club

    How many GOP were represented in the two polls?



    http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2017/images/01/16/trump.2.pdf

    "METHODOLOGY

    A total of 1,000 adults were interviewed by telephone nationwide by live interviewers calling both landline and cell phones.

    Among the entire sample, 32% described themselves as Democrats, 24% described themselves as Republicans, and 44% described themselves as independents or members of another party."
    Exactly

    And 81% of independents are democrats who are too embarrassed to admit it

    The story isn't that by the time of the election the polls had tightened to fool the hondo's of the world, the story is the polls showing hillary up by double digits headed to an electoral college landslide for most of 2016

    This is a similar method.
  • dhdawgdhdawg Member Posts: 13,326
    correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't trump win independents?
  • UWhuskytskeetUWhuskytskeet Member Posts: 7,113
    edited January 2017

    How many GOP were represented in the two polls?



    http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2017/images/01/16/trump.2.pdf

    "METHODOLOGY

    A total of 1,000 adults were interviewed by telephone nationwide by live interviewers calling both landline and cell phones.

    Among the entire sample, 32% described themselves as Democrats, 24% described themselves as Republicans, and 44% described themselves as independents or members of another party."
    Exactly

    And 81% of independents are democrats who are too embarrassed to admit it

    The story isn't that by the time of the election the polls had tightened to fool the hondo's of the world, the story is the polls showing hillary up by double digits headed to an electoral college landslide for most of 2016

    This is a similar method.

    ------

    Most polls were well within their margin of error by election day. Hillary won the popular vote by 2.1%.

    image

    I highlighted the ones that were outside of +-3%.

    It looks to me that most polls overvalued the impact of Johnson and Stein. Both performed way under what they were polling. Both Clinton and Trump got a higher percentage than originally predicted.

    image

    Electoral college models definitely weren't accurate, but even then we are talking about a couple tenths of a percent in a handful of states.

    Regardless, the 1000 person sample is pretty representative of how Americans currently identify with political parties. The latest Gallup poll has it as Rep:28%, Dem: 25%, Ind:44%.
  • TierbsHsotBoobsTierbsHsotBoobs Member Posts: 39,680


    Electoral college models definitely weren't accurate, but even then we are talking about a couple tenths of a percent in a handful of states.

    That's the real story from the polling error, but I imagine it's not easy to model scenarios where a candidate wins the EC while losing the popular vote by 2%.

    Nate Silver at least brought up the possibility.
  • greenbloodgreenblood Member Posts: 14,520
    Approval polls are more of a popularity poll. People personally liked Obama based on polls but hated his policies. More people dislike trump as a person, of course his approval numbers will be down. Many people approved of Obama on the polls because they didn't want to be seen as racist by the pollsters.
  • TierbsHsotBoobsTierbsHsotBoobs Member Posts: 39,680

    Approval polls are more of a popularity poll. People personally liked Obama based on polls but hated his policies. More people dislike trump as a person, of course his approval numbers will be down. Many people approved of Obama on the polls because they didn't want to be seen as racist by the pollsters.

    Almost accurate. Obama's approval numbers went up at the end because he looked great compared to the shitshow of candidates that lined up to replace him.
  • 2001400ex2001400ex Member Posts: 29,457

    How many GOP were represented in the two polls?



    http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2017/images/01/16/trump.2.pdf

    "METHODOLOGY

    A total of 1,000 adults were interviewed by telephone nationwide by live interviewers calling both landline and cell phones.

    Among the entire sample, 32% described themselves as Democrats, 24% described themselves as Republicans, and 44% described themselves as independents or members of another party."
    Exactly

    And 81% of independents are democrats who are too embarrassed to admit it

    The story isn't that by the time of the election the polls had tightened to fool the hondo's of the world, the story is the polls showing hillary up by double digits headed to an electoral college landslide for most of 2016

    This is a similar method.
    ------

    Most polls were well within their margin of error by election day. Hillary won the popular vote by 2.1%.

    image

    I highlighted the ones that were outside of +-3%.

    It looks to me that most polls overvalued the impact of Johnson and Stein. Both performed way under what they were polling. Both Clinton and Trump got a higher percentage than originally predicted.

    image

    Electoral college models definitely weren't accurate, but even then we are talking about a couple tenths of a percent in a handful of states.

    Regardless, the 1000 person sample is pretty representative of how Americans currently identify with political parties. The latest Gallup poll has it as Rep:28%, Dem: 25%, Ind:44%.

    Hillary actually won the popular by more than 2.1% look at the total, she only won by 2.1 million there when the final tally was 2.9 million. So really the polls were closer than RCP notes.
  • 2001400ex2001400ex Member Posts: 29,457

    How many GOP were represented in the two polls?



    http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2017/images/01/16/trump.2.pdf

    "METHODOLOGY

    A total of 1,000 adults were interviewed by telephone nationwide by live interviewers calling both landline and cell phones.

    Among the entire sample, 32% described themselves as Democrats, 24% described themselves as Republicans, and 44% described themselves as independents or members of another party."
    Exactly

    And 81% of independents are democrats who are too embarrassed to admit it

    The story isn't that by the time of the election the polls had tightened to fool the hondo's of the world, the story is the polls showing hillary up by double digits headed to an electoral college landslide for most of 2016

    This is a similar method.

    Why are you so pissed that your dude is not popular? It's not a good look for you Race.
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