The ranking of one-loss teams.

Passion

Whatever, just win the last four games and conference championship. That's all that matters.

But just for the sake of argument (and because I hate tyrone willingham's guts) let's say the Huskies fuck up and lose a game. In the final stretch of this season, UW has the 14th toughest schedule in the country compared to aTm's 40th. UW also has a chance to play for a conference championship. aTm doesn't.

S, why does UW have no margin of error, but other teams can lose a game and still get in? Why is ohio state's 1 loss (to friggin's penn state) any less egregious than if UW were to lose to usc?

dnc

UW isn't going to get anywhere near the 14th toughest schedule in the country.

And the answer to your question about tOSU is that it's not just about the loss, it's about the wins. In that scenario tOSU has a monster win over Michigan (plus a good non con win at Oklahoma), while UW's best wins are Utah and ... WSU?

I think with equal losses tOSU and TAMU are likely to have superior resumes (though TAMU's would be debatable for sure and may depend on what happens from here out).

The committee picking a 1 loss TAMU over a 1 loss UW wouldn't be indefensible. Picking a 1 loss TAMU over an undefeated UW would be, but that's not going to happen.

dhdawg

black sark will lose another game, so not even worth discussing them.

Ohio State beat Oklahoma on the road in the nonconference and play in a tougher conference, so I think a 1 loss tOSU is clearly more deserving that a 1 loss UW.
A 1 loss Michigan who loses their conference is maybe a different story. but this is Michigan so they'll get the subjective benefit of the doubt.
Louisville is interesting because they wouldn't win the conference and they haven't really beaten anyone outside of a 5-3 FSU team.
With all that said UW needs to just take care of their own business

dhdawg

I guess you can argue if Louisville beats Houston (who really isn't that good) in Houston that's a good non conference win. Honestly after watching them not sure they will win that game

whuggy

Pretty sure the Committee doesn't want to be seen as favoring
one conference over another. Also they are on record as giving great
weight to conference champs. Could easily see Washington and
OSU as one loss conference champs being picked over one loss
A and M without a title. I think there's room for a USC fuckup.

dnc

whuggy said:

Pretty sure the Committee doesn't want to be seen as favoring
one conference over another. Also they are on record as giving great
weight to conference champs. Could easily see Washington and
OSU as one loss conference champs being picked over one loss
A and M without a title. I think there's room for a USC fuckup.

Disagree. If UW gets one loss it's not just a hypothetical 1 loss TAMU UW has to beat out, it's a hypothetical 1 loss Michigan and hypothetical 1 loss Louisville and whoever else.

If UW drops a game we're settling for the Rose Bowel.

dhdawg

dnc said:

whuggy said:

Pretty sure the Committee doesn't want to be seen as favoring
one conference over another. Also they are on record as giving great
weight to conference champs. Could easily see Washington and
OSU as one loss conference champs being picked over one loss
A and M without a title. I think there's room for a USC fuckup.

Disagree. If UW gets one loss it's not just a hypothetical 1 loss TAMU UW has to beat out, it's a hypothetical 1 loss Michigan and hypothetical 1 loss Louisville and whoever else.

If UW drops a game we're settling for the Rose Bowel.

yes. most likely Louisville Ohio State and A&M would have to take another loss. which I guess is possible but highly unlikely.

whlinder

Our best odds at making the playoff with 1 loss are probably to lose to Cal and then win out with Colorado in the P12 champ game. Maybe could pull it off with an ASU loss as well but the computers will hurt us more for losing at home.

We'd have a decent case against 1 loss teams that aren't conference champs by being a conference champ but we'd also invite being passed by a 2-loss conference champ with a stronger profile like Wisconsin or Oklahoma if they were to win their conferences.

whuggy

dnc said:

whuggy said:

Pretty sure the Committee doesn't want to be seen as favoring
one conference over another. Also they are on record as giving great
weight to conference champs. Could easily see Washington and
OSU as one loss conference champs being picked over one loss
A and M without a title. I think there's room for a USC fuckup.

Disagree. If UW gets one loss it's not just a hypothetical 1 loss TAMU UW has to beat out, it's a hypothetical 1 loss Michigan and hypothetical 1 loss Louisville and whoever else.

If UW drops a game we're settling for the Rose Bowel.

One loss Michigan to OSU takes Michigan out
of the conf. championship discussion doesn't it?

TTJ

dnc said:

The committee picking a 1 loss TAMU over a 1 loss UW wouldn't be indefensible. Picking a 1 loss TAMU over an undefeated UW would be, but that's not going to happen.

Hasn't that already happened?

whuggy

whlinder said:

Our best odds at making the playoff with 1 loss are probably to lose to Cal and then win out with Colorado in the P12 champ game. Maybe could pull it off with an ASU loss as well but the computers will hurt us more for losing at home.

We'd have a decent case against 1 loss teams that aren't conference champs by being a conference champ but we'd also invite being passed by a 2-loss conference champ with a stronger profile like Wisconsin or Oklahoma if they were to win their conferences.

I can't see any way they will take a 2 loss team.
One loss Washington will have a decent profile
especially with wins over WSU and USC/Colorado.

TierbsHsotBoobs

TTJ said:

dnc said:

The committee picking a 1 loss TAMU over a 1 loss UW wouldn't be indefensible. Picking a 1 loss TAMU over an undefeated UW would be, but that's not going to happen.

Hasn't that already happened?

Washington hasn't won the Pac-12 yet.

If Washington does so with a 13-0 record, it will be in the playoff without a doubt.

The Huskies might also get in by winning the conference with a 12-1 record.

HTH

whuggy

TierbsHsotBoobs said:

TTJ said:

dnc said:

The committee picking a 1 loss TAMU over a 1 loss UW wouldn't be indefensible. Picking a 1 loss TAMU over an undefeated UW would be, but that's not going to happen.

Hasn't that already happened?

Washington hasn't won the Pac-12 yet.

If Washington does so with a 13-0 record, it will be in the playoff without a doubt.

The Huskies might also get in by winning the conference with a 12-1 record.

HTH

Summed up perfectly.

dnc

whuggy said:

dnc said:

whuggy said:

Pretty sure the Committee doesn't want to be seen as favoring
one conference over another. Also they are on record as giving great
weight to conference champs. Could easily see Washington and
OSU as one loss conference champs being picked over one loss
A and M without a title. I think there's room for a USC fuckup.

Disagree. If UW gets one loss it's not just a hypothetical 1 loss TAMU UW has to beat out, it's a hypothetical 1 loss Michigan and hypothetical 1 loss Louisville and whoever else.

If UW drops a game we're settling for the Rose Bowel.

One loss Michigan to OSU takes Michigan out
of the conf. championship discussion doesn't it?

Yes, but you're making a massive assumption that a conference title Trumps all. Yes, it's only been conference champs so far but we're talking about a small two year sample, but we can just as easily poont to the fact that nobody's made the playoff with a loss and as weak of a schedule as UW has this year so far.

A 1 loss Michigan would be a real threat, especially if that game is close.

dnc

TTJ said:

dnc said:

The committee picking a 1 loss TAMU over a 1 loss UW wouldn't be indefensible. Picking a 1 loss TAMU over an undefeated UW would be, but that's not going to happen.

Hasn't that already happened?

No

whuggy

dnc said:

whuggy said:

dnc said:

whuggy said:

Pretty sure the Committee doesn't want to be seen as favoring
one conference over another. Also they are on record as giving great
weight to conference champs. Could easily see Washington and
OSU as one loss conference champs being picked over one loss
A and M without a title. I think there's room for a USC fuckup.

Disagree. If UW gets one loss it's not just a hypothetical 1 loss TAMU UW has to beat out, it's a hypothetical 1 loss Michigan and hypothetical 1 loss Louisville and whoever else.

If UW drops a game we're settling for the Rose Bowel.

One loss Michigan to OSU takes Michigan out
of the conf. championship discussion doesn't it?

Yes, but you're making a massive assumption that a conference title Trumps all. Yes, it's only been conference champs so far but we're talking about a small two year sample, but we can just as easily poont to the fact that nobody's made the playoff with a loss and as weak of a schedule as UW has this year so far.

A 1 loss Michigan would be a real threat, especially if that game is close.

Just going by what the Committee has reportedly
stated that they put great value on conf. champion.
That reads to me as they value a champion more than they
devalue a loss.

whuggy

dnc said:

whuggy said:

dnc said:

whuggy said:

Pretty sure the Committee doesn't want to be seen as favoring
one conference over another. Also they are on record as giving great
weight to conference champs. Could easily see Washington and
OSU as one loss conference champs being picked over one loss
A and M without a title. I think there's room for a USC fuckup.

Disagree. If UW gets one loss it's not just a hypothetical 1 loss TAMU UW has to beat out, it's a hypothetical 1 loss Michigan and hypothetical 1 loss Louisville and whoever else.

If UW drops a game we're settling for the Rose Bowel.

One loss Michigan to OSU takes Michigan out
of the conf. championship discussion doesn't it?

Yes, but you're making a massive assumption that a conference title Trumps all. Yes, it's only been conference champs so far but we're talking about a small two year sample, but we can just as easily poont to the fact that nobody's made the playoff with a loss and as weak of a schedule as UW has this year so far.

A 1 loss Michigan would be a real threat, especially if that game is close.

Plus I just don't think that want the shitstorm that
will come their way by including two teams from the same conference.

dnc

whuggy said:

dnc said:

whuggy said:

dnc said:

whuggy said:

Pretty sure the Committee doesn't want to be seen as favoring
one conference over another. Also they are on record as giving great
weight to conference champs. Could easily see Washington and
OSU as one loss conference champs being picked over one loss
A and M without a title. I think there's room for a USC fuckup.

Disagree. If UW gets one loss it's not just a hypothetical 1 loss TAMU UW has to beat out, it's a hypothetical 1 loss Michigan and hypothetical 1 loss Louisville and whoever else.

If UW drops a game we're settling for the Rose Bowel.

One loss Michigan to OSU takes Michigan out
of the conf. championship discussion doesn't it?

Yes, but you're making a massive assumption that a conference title Trumps all. Yes, it's only been conference champs so far but we're talking about a small two year sample, but we can just as easily poont to the fact that nobody's made the playoff with a loss and as weak of a schedule as UW has this year so far.

A 1 loss Michigan would be a real threat, especially if that game is close.

Just going by what the Committee has reportedly
stated that they put great value on conf. champion.
That reads to me as they value a champion more than they
devalue a loss.

Sincerely, spadoFS, hoops 2012

whlinder

whuggy said:

whlinder said:

Our best odds at making the playoff with 1 loss are probably to lose to Cal and then win out with Colorado in the P12 champ game. Maybe could pull it off with an ASU loss as well but the computers will hurt us more for losing at home.

We'd have a decent case against 1 loss teams that aren't conference champs by being a conference champ but we'd also invite being passed by a 2-loss conference champ with a stronger profile like Wisconsin or Oklahoma if they were to win their conferences.

I can't see any way they will take a 2 loss team.
One loss Washington will have a decent profile
especially with wins over WSU and USC/Colorado.

Wisconsin, with two really close losses to Michigan and Ohio State, plus a non-conference win against LSU, if it turns around and beats Michigan or OSU in the B12 champ, has a better profile than we do. The committee has 5 B1G teams in the top 12 don't forget. B1G is also playing 9 conference games this year so their end of the year SoS will be pretty strong.

10-2 Oklahoma, which would be 9-0 in the B12 with losses to Ohio State and Houston... I dunno.

The long term takeaway here is that it is better for a conference to have 35-50% of your teams be really fucking good and have the rest of your conference be absolute fucking dreck than to have 75-90% of your teams be meh. More emphasis is placed on your top end games, even if complemented by complete dreck, than on playing a bunch of middle-tier games.
(not that the P12 is middle tier this year but due to the fact we play 9 conf games the end of year records will reflect a bunch of middle tier teams)

Swaye

Now stop and think for a second....if UW loses to WSU, we not only miss the playoffs, but the Rose Bowl as well. 11-1, going to the fuck off bowel. Jesus. I'll kill everything.

Passion

dnc said:

UW isn't going to get anywhere near the 14th toughest schedule in the country.

Sagarin says that, as or right now, UW has the 14th toughest schedule the rest of the way.

The thing that is more aggravating is that apparently getting ass-raped by alabama (which happened to the aggies) is apparently a badge of honor.

Whatever, this is all just conversation and having something to talk about. Just win. That's it. Just win.