FPI's chances to win each game
Comments
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I still prefer this time of year to mid-October when the dump truck of excuses gets unloaded onto our? face.haie said:It's that time of the year again for doogs . Jesus Christ
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here's S&P's predictions, which outperfomred vegas and essentially was right in line with expectations (i.e a 70% chance to win prediction won 70% of the time)
this also seems more realistic, less than 50% chance at Oregon, etc. Also predicts 9 wins.
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Very.TierbsHsotBoobs said: -
Anything higher than 0% against Oregon can't be taken seriously at this point
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You're a fucking idiot. Nuff said on that.Tequilla said:
Because a team with a Vegas O/U of 4 or 4.5 winning 6 games (7th in a bowl) isn't outperforming expectationsThomasFremont said:
Fuck. You.Tequilla said:The statistical models are terrible at picking up most of the intangible shit ...
That being said, the numbers in theory are directionally correct ...
At Arizona is considered a tough game because it is on the road early in the year (I agree that the numbers with Stanford should probably be switched here) ...
I'm assuming the Stanford numbers are reflecting the games that Stanford is coming off of + short week + travel/road game
Oregon's backward slide is predicated on 1) how much of a loss VAJ is and 2) the fact that they lost the balance of a poor defense
USC is probably the most talented team in the conference ... their talent is overrated when you factor in everything that goes around it ... their DL is going to kill them this year
ASU will likely out perform expectations this year and they are a mess for statistical models based on the way they play.
The models predict 9-10 wins which seems like a good baseline. However, when you look at the numbers, UW is a favorite in every game and when you really think about the talent in the conference and compare it to UW's, there shouldn't be a game that we go into this year (assuming health in key spots) where we are any worse than a coin flip.
Too many here are too busy thinking about the last 15 years and putting past failures on this team before they've proven anything one way or another. The fact is that if you go by the "expectations" for last season they outperformed. But there are some here that will predict UW to lose game after game as soon as they start winning simply because they won't believe.
@TierbsHsotBoobs @ThomasFremont @RaceBannon @RoadDawg55 you can all go ahead and start downvoting and WTF'ing this shit ... it's what you losers do
The fact of the matter is that if they go 11-1 this year you'll be pissed because of the game they lost and what that loss might cost them -
S&P has not beaten the closing lines over any large sample size that I am aware of. Sometimes they win over a season and that gets publicized but I don't believe it is sustainable.BlowItUp said:here's S&P's predictions, which outperfomred vegas and essentially was right in line with expectations (i.e a 70% chance to win prediction won 70% of the time)
this also seems more realistic, less than 50% chance at Oregon, etc. Also predicts 9 wins.
I do think the S&P model is more accurate than FPI but that's kind of like saying Rivals is more accurate than Scout.
Both are predictive but both also have biases. -
I do like speaking the truth.Tequilla said:
And you like to say that I'm dumb ...ThomasFremont said:
Clearly not the case.Tequilla said:
So the people that handle sports bets in the billions annually with a total win rate in their books easily in the 9 figure range (and growing each year) clearly have no idea what they are talking about per your fucktarded (as usual) logicThomasFremont said:
Stop sucking off Vegas. It makes you sound dumber than usual.Tequilla said:
Because a team with a Vegas O/U of 4 or 4.5 winning 6 games (7th in a bowl) isn't outperforming expectationsThomasFremont said:
Fuck. You.Tequilla said:The statistical models are terrible at picking up most of the intangible shit ...
That being said, the numbers in theory are directionally correct ...
At Arizona is considered a tough game because it is on the road early in the year (I agree that the numbers with Stanford should probably be switched here) ...
I'm assuming the Stanford numbers are reflecting the games that Stanford is coming off of + short week + travel/road game
Oregon's backward slide is predicated on 1) how much of a loss VAJ is and 2) the fact that they lost the balance of a poor defense
USC is probably the most talented team in the conference ... their talent is overrated when you factor in everything that goes around it ... their DL is going to kill them this year
ASU will likely out perform expectations this year and they are a mess for statistical models based on the way they play.
The models predict 9-10 wins which seems like a good baseline. However, when you look at the numbers, UW is a favorite in every game and when you really think about the talent in the conference and compare it to UW's, there shouldn't be a game that we go into this year (assuming health in key spots) where we are any worse than a coin flip.
Too many here are too busy thinking about the last 15 years and putting past failures on this team before they've proven anything one way or another. The fact is that if you go by the "expectations" for last season they outperformed. But there are some here that will predict UW to lose game after game as soon as they start winning simply because they won't believe.
@TierbsHsotBoobs @ThomasFremont @RaceBannon @RoadDawg55 you can all go ahead and start downvoting and WTF'ing this shit ... it's what you losers do
The fact of the matter is that if they go 11-1 this year you'll be pissed because of the game they lost and what that loss might cost them
You can see the data here: http://gaming.unlv.edu/reports/longterm_nvgaming.pdf
I don't suck off Vegas ... but I understand how lines are set. They aren't always right ... but their ability to consistently make money year in and year out says that they must know what they are doing.
If you know better, then by all means go down to Vegas and you should have no problem taking advantage of their stupidity and make an easy living.
I never said Vegas wasn't smart or good at making money. So don't twist.
But they don't set lines to be right. They set lines to make a shit ton of money off degenerate fucking gamblers. They don't give a fuck if UW won 2.5 games more than the line they set as long as the count is right at the end of the season.
So when dumb fucks like you or HFNY quote Vegas lines as if they were handed down from Biff Tannen's sports almanac, you look like even bigger dumb fucks than usual.
HTH -
Ridiculous thread. No one knows if these guys are worth a shit or not at this point. One of you degenerates with nothing better to do will bookmark this thread. Bump it mid-season when some semblance of clarity might show itself and provide some of you with ammo to blast in the face of those with errant prognostics. That's at least fun to watch. Til then fuck ya'll for wasting bandwidth. That is all.
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FremontTroll said:
Lines are created by market forces. It's not the opening lines that are efficient it's the closing lines after the smart money has come in.Tequilla said:
So the people that handle sports bets in the billions annually with a total win rate in their books easily in the 9 figure range (and growing each year) clearly have no idea what they are talking about per your fucktarded (as usual) logicThomasFremont said:
Stop sucking off Vegas. It makes you sound dumber than usual.Tequilla said:
Because a team with a Vegas O/U of 4 or 4.5 winning 6 games (7th in a bowl) isn't outperforming expectationsThomasFremont said:
Fuck. You.Tequilla said:The statistical models are terrible at picking up most of the intangible shit ...
That being said, the numbers in theory are directionally correct ...
At Arizona is considered a tough game because it is on the road early in the year (I agree that the numbers with Stanford should probably be switched here) ...
I'm assuming the Stanford numbers are reflecting the games that Stanford is coming off of + short week + travel/road game
Oregon's backward slide is predicated on 1) how much of a loss VAJ is and 2) the fact that they lost the balance of a poor defense
USC is probably the most talented team in the conference ... their talent is overrated when you factor in everything that goes around it ... their DL is going to kill them this year
ASU will likely out perform expectations this year and they are a mess for statistical models based on the way they play.
The models predict 9-10 wins which seems like a good baseline. However, when you look at the numbers, UW is a favorite in every game and when you really think about the talent in the conference and compare it to UW's, there shouldn't be a game that we go into this year (assuming health in key spots) where we are any worse than a coin flip.
Too many here are too busy thinking about the last 15 years and putting past failures on this team before they've proven anything one way or another. The fact is that if you go by the "expectations" for last season they outperformed. But there are some here that will predict UW to lose game after game as soon as they start winning simply because they won't believe.
@TierbsHsotBoobs @ThomasFremont @RaceBannon @RoadDawg55 you can all go ahead and start downvoting and WTF'ing this shit ... it's what you losers do
The fact of the matter is that if they go 11-1 this year you'll be pissed because of the game they lost and what that loss might cost them
You can see the data here: http://gaming.unlv.edu/reports/longterm_nvgaming.pdf
I don't suck off Vegas ... but I understand how lines are set. They aren't always right ... but their ability to consistently make money year in and year out says that they must know what they are doing.
If you know better, then by all means go down to Vegas and you should have no problem taking advantage of their stupidity and make an easy living.
That being said regular season win totals are not a heavily bet market and are almost exclusively for suckers. If your model has an edge over the sportsbook why would you tie your money up for 5 months when you could be putting it to work every week?
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YBESoutherndawg said:Ridiculous thread. No one knows if these guys are worth a shit or not at this point. One of you degenerates with nothing better to do will bookmark this thread. Bump it mid-season when some semblance of clarity might show itself and provide some of you with ammo to blast in the face of those with errant prognostics. That's at least fun to watch. Til then fuck ya'll for wasting bandwidth. That is all.
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This entire thread has AIDS.
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FPI is shit and you're all fags
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Having imperfect information isn't equivalent to having no information.Southerndawg said:Ridiculous thread. No one knows if these guys are worth a shit or not at this point. One of you degenerates with nothing better to do will bookmark this thread. Bump it mid-season when some semblance of clarity might show itself and provide some of you with ammo to blast in the face of those with errant prognostics. That's at least fun to watch. Til then fuck ya'll for wasting bandwidth. That is all.
I think we can all agree we should be better than last year the question is one of degree.
Doogs aren't fucking stupid for trying to make predictions. They are fucking stupid for assuming every question mark will resolve itself in UW's favor. Every player will imrove over the off-season and get stronger not fatter. Every coach will fix the mistakes they made last year. Every touted recruit will be ready to step in and contribute. Nobody will get injured. Etc.
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Reminder
Losers lose because when they have a good offense they have a bad defense. When they have a good defense they have a bad offense. They never have two good in the same season. They never are great.
We've been through this with Sark as well. Get rid of FuckFace and the defense will improve and Keith Price will out score the opponent.
This is how you get decades of Minnesota. The script is strong with this program -
Washington is a soft faggot school
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If we can just play a god damn meaningful game on the second Saturday of November. Please?! Has that even happened since 9-11? I think we might have had an outside shot at the Rose Bowl that year.
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I'm hearing the terrorists won.Fire_Marshall_Bill said:If we can just play a god damn meaningful game on the second Saturday of November. Please?! Has that even happened since 9-11? I think we might have had an outside shot at the Rose Bowl that year.
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Also nearly a 0 percent chance to win at Zonaphineas said:UW has 0% chance against Oregon and asu. It's just not going to happen. UW will never beat either school, ever again
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You're a fag loser if you're not pissed over this.Tequilla said:
Because a team with a Vegas O/U of 4 or 4.5 winning 6 games (7th in a bowl) isn't outperforming expectationsThomasFremont said:
Fuck. You.Tequilla said:The statistical models are terrible at picking up most of the intangible shit ...
That being said, the numbers in theory are directionally correct ...
At Arizona is considered a tough game because it is on the road early in the year (I agree that the numbers with Stanford should probably be switched here) ...
I'm assuming the Stanford numbers are reflecting the games that Stanford is coming off of + short week + travel/road game
Oregon's backward slide is predicated on 1) how much of a loss VAJ is and 2) the fact that they lost the balance of a poor defense
USC is probably the most talented team in the conference ... their talent is overrated when you factor in everything that goes around it ... their DL is going to kill them this year
ASU will likely out perform expectations this year and they are a mess for statistical models based on the way they play.
The models predict 9-10 wins which seems like a good baseline. However, when you look at the numbers, UW is a favorite in every game and when you really think about the talent in the conference and compare it to UW's, there shouldn't be a game that we go into this year (assuming health in key spots) where we are any worse than a coin flip.
Too many here are too busy thinking about the last 15 years and putting past failures on this team before they've proven anything one way or another. The fact is that if you go by the "expectations" for last season they outperformed. But there are some here that will predict UW to lose game after game as soon as they start winning simply because they won't believe.
@TierbsHsotBoobs @ThomasFremont @RaceBannon @RoadDawg55 you can all go ahead and start downvoting and WTF'ing this shit ... it's what you losers do
The fact of the matter is that if they go 11-1 this year you'll be pissed because of the game they lost and what that loss might cost them
