Tequilla Thoughts: Fuck All Offensive Brain Trust with Rusty Cheese Grater Edition
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disagreeTequilla said:Never mistake activity for achievement -- John Wooden
Yesterday was the definition of activity without achievement. 547 yards of offense. 17 fucking points.
EVERYBODY knew how ASU would start the game with blitzing and pressure because that's what they do each and every game. They know no other way. They trade the big plays that they give up with the potential for turnovers and sacks to kill drives. If you can hit the big plays against them, more power to you.
I lost count at how many big plays were missed because of either poor throws by Browning, receivers flat out dropping the ball, or receivers not extending themselves trying to make plays when the ball was not thrown just perfectly. Petersen talked after the game about how if everything isn't perfect right now for these guys they don't make plays ... which in many respects why UW has a below average offense. It's always a good reminder for anybody that other teams are trying to make plays on their end and things won't be absolutely perfect often. Football is a game where I think players can sometimes default into looking too much at scheme and the play and losing the ability to just go out and play. It's one of the things that I always look at when watching basketball is how are teams able to execute when running plays versus being able to improvise from the plan when opportunities arise and/or what happens when things break down and you have to freelance a bit. Those that struggle in dealing with uncertainty or ambiguous situations are mentally weak.
Yesterday was one of those tipping point games. Get out to a nice 17-0 lead in 1st half looking like you were in complete control of the game. The third quarter being a quarter that you've consistently won this year meant that just a normal halftime of adjustments and sound third quarter play puts the game away. Instead, we found some adversity and turtled like a mentally soft team. And more disappointingly, the halftime adjustments were not there. Just flat out not there.
There's been a ton of talk all year about the offense not having an identity. I've often been critical of Smith for never being a step ahead of his competition on the defensive side of the ball. When you think back to either of the teams that Gilby coached as an OC, one thing that was consistently true was that Gilby was playing chess while others were playing checkers. @KyleBenn had a great story about that on a recent podcast in recounting some of the plays that were run in the 2000 victory over Miami. This is the kind of an effect that a good coordinator can have on a team. It's the kind of effect that we've generally seen on the defensive side of the ball.
But the reality is that Smith doesn't have a plan and as a result he doesn't have an identity. While I don't think you can be critical of a game plan that is looking to take shots against ASU, you also have to have a deeper understanding of what it is that ASU does and what you need to do to beat them. ASU invites, and really forces, you to hit chunk plays against them. They have no interest in allowing 12+ play drives where you slowly out execute them. Going back to the basketball analogy I was using earlier, they want to force the opposition into having to execute outside of their comfort zone and in situations that test your ability make plays in non normal and chaotic situations. Early in the game, we had a plan on how to attack and what kind of pressures that they were going to run on us ... everything looked great. As the game went on, ASU made some small adjustments and we stubbornly tried to keep doing the same things in the face of it with no result.
It'd be one thing to question the number of throws versus run plays assuming that the run game wasn't working. But it was working. And it's very clear from the planning and quotes after the game that the plan was to throw the ball a ton. Whether it be because they don't want to give Gaskin 30+ carries, Washington's injury forcing him to miss the game, not trusting the RBs behind Gaskin and (maybe) Washington, or a dated belief that you attack blitzing teams by getting chunk plays and that chunk plays MUST come from the passing game, the plan was decided upon and never updated even when evidence suggested an alternative path as well as evidence suggesting that not only was too much being asked of Browning (who has struggled with the accuracy of his deep throws all season) and a WR/TE group that struggles to consistently make the routine catches and rarely makes catches that are of an above average difficulty. There's a definitive bias in place where there's an acknowledgement of some shortcomings (RBs - run game) but lack of one when it comes to the passing game.
The number of pass to run plays has been already beat to death. To me, what's more interesting is a quarter by quarter, carry by carry look at what UW did in the run game yesterday on Gaskin's 18 carries for 108 yards ... I don't care that much about Cooper's 3 carries or Hall's 2 carries:
1st Quarter:
2nd and 5 from ASU 49: 17 yards
1st and 10 from ASU 32: 1 yard
1st and 10 from ASU 19: 2 yards
1st and 10 from UW 23: 11 yards
2nd and 7 from UW 37: 6 yards
2nd and 10 from UW 46: 53 yards
1st and Goal from ASU 1: 1 yard (TD)
Total 1st Quarter: 7 carries for 91 yards
2nd Quarter:
2nd and 10 from UW 29: 6 yards
1st and 10 from ASU 41: -1 yard
1st and 10 from UW 45: 4 yards
1st and 10 from UW 8: -2 yards
1st and 10 from UW 25: 0 yards
Total 2nd Quarter: 5 carries for 7 yards
Total 1st half: 12 carries for 98 yards
3rd Quarter:
1st and 10 from UW 25: -1 yard
1st and 10 from ASU 44: -1 yard
3rd and 1 from ASU 35: 0 yards
1st and 10 from ASU 34: 6 yards
2nd and 4 from ASU 28: 6 yards
Total 3rd Quarter: 5 carries for 10 yards
4th Quarter:
1st and 10 from UW 36: 0 yards
Total 4th Quarter: 1 carry for 0 yards
Total 2nd half: 6 carries for 10 yards
Looking at the play chart though, you start to see a few trends that become very troubling. First, on the surface level, Gaskin had a few nice runs early in the game that accounted for most of his yardage. Of his 18 carries though, 7 of the 18 carries were for no gain or negative yards and another 3 carries (including the 1 yard TD plunge) were for 2 yards or less. The big takeaway from me on that is that we're an inconsistent team running the ball (which isn't particularly surprising). However, we do have a tendency to hit some big plays in the running game so there's reason to not only stick with it, but also to call plays in a way that make it less predictable of when we're actually going to run. But if you look at how Smith is calling the plays, predictability is the name of the game. Rarely does he double up on runs. Instead, the balance of the runs are tied to 1st down calls and when he calls runs on 2nd down, they normally follow incomplete passes or short gains on 1st down (this is a trend that I've seen in many games this year). This got me into thinking about how Smith called plays during the game (Browning runs and sacks are considered to be passing plays):
1st down: 42 total plays; 15 runs vs 27 passes (run % of 36%)
2nd down: 27 total plays; 7 runs vs 20 passes (run % of 26%)
3rd down: 14 total plays; 1 run vs 13 passes (run % of 7%)
4th down: 3 total plays; 1 run vs 2 passes (run % of 33%)
The bolded line is the one that is criminal and to me is the indictment of Smith as a play caller and leads me to being highly questionable about Petersen. There are times during a game where you are in 3rd and long situations where the smart thing to do is to run the football, try to get some of the yards back and put your defense in a better position. As a team that has a strong defense and is known to be offensively challenged, an ideal time to run the ball is in some 3rd and 10+ situations when you are at or around the 35 yard line where getting an easy 5-7 yards can be the difference between 3 points and a punt. Yet the numbers from yesterday I don't think you'll find if you go back through games this year where the play calling on 3rd down materially changes. And the big problem with this is that with a team with a freshman QB, with a young OL, with a running game that is hot and cold, the LAST THING THAT YOU CAN DO IS BE FUCKING PREDICTABLE. You have to strive to be balanced. You have to be willing to zig when others think you are going to zag.
In the end, the part with the last paragraph that really pisses me off is that there have been quotes this year that have come out to the effect of being ok with not having an identity because of trying to be unpredictable. But the reality is that they are predictable because you can almost count on a few stone cold certainties as a DC when facing UW:
1) We don't run the ball on 3rd down and in particular not on 3rd and long situations
2) When throwing incompletions on 1st down, when combined with the fact that we're going to throw the ball on 3rd down, we're likely to run the ball on 2nd down to make it 3rd and manageable so that we don't completely limit the playbook to plays that require the OL to hold blocks for longer developing plays
3) Because we don't trust many in the running game, you can run a count on Gaskin and without fail the goal is to get him in the 18-20 carry range and once he gets in that range you can start not paying attention to the running game
I'm sure that I could go find more things about the play calling to criticize, but what's the fucking point? It's beyond fucking terrible. It's predictable. It's at a lower caliber than good Madden players. There's no plan or identity to what is going on. Whatever principles that are guiding the offense are misguided and incapable of adjustment to the facts and specifics of a game. And the reality is that at this point, while you can see some good ideas and concepts, I'm a fucking half brain. If I can see these things, then what do you think reasonable coordinators in this conference are seeing who have spent their entire life in the game? It's impossible for me not to think that Petersen isn't seeing these things. And if he is seeing these things, then what the fuck is he doing about it because the play calling is getting worse not better? And if he isn't seeing these things, then he's fucking asleep at the wheel which is probably a bigger indictment than being either incompetent about forcing change or not doing enough. -
If being German and talking about hip hop is bad I'm out.
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And on 3 and 4 (or less)
- 1 run
- 5 passes
The one run was that fucking idiotic wildcat where we brought all 11 into the god damn mother fucking ass licking box for an obvious no gain.
Smiff and Pusserman can get the fuck out of here. Done with them, and unless there is a change, I have ZERO faith in any future team being able to develop beyond how far just their talent can take them. -
@Auburndawg.. Could you please help us move the goalposts? I could really use your help.
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his goalpost moving services are only available starting the first week of November and ending after the bowl game.RoadDawg55 said:@Auburndawg.. Could you please help us move the goalposts? I could really use your help.
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I don't want Tequilla blowing out his back carrying these posts by himself.LoneStarDawg said:
his goalpost moving services are only available starting the first week of November and ending after the bowl game.RoadDawg55 said:@Auburndawg.. Could you please help us move the goalposts? I could really use your help.
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How is what I said then any different than what I said yesterday?
I talked about how ASU forces the opposition to hit chunk plays ...
I talked about how we hit a few in the running game ...
I also talked about how the running game wasn't particularly consistent ...
If you go back and re-read the TL, DR shit, you'd realize that my criticisms of Smith weren't focused on whether he ran the ball or didn't run the ball, it was that his play calling was often without a plan and very predictable. He doesn't zag when others zig. It was tremendously predictable (to my eyes) which means that it probably is predictable to those that do this shit for a living. -
Keep telling yourself you aren't the exact same as Aubbie.Tequilla said:How is what I said then any different than what I said yesterday?
I talked about how ASU forces the opposition to hit chunk plays ...
I talked about how we hit a few in the running game ...
I also talked about how the running game wasn't particularly consistent ...
If you go back and re-read the TL, DR shit, you'd realize that my criticisms of Smith weren't focused on whether he ran the ball or didn't run the ball, it was that his play calling was often without a plan and very predictable. He doesn't zag when others zig. It was tremendously predictable (to my eyes) which means that it probably is predictable to those that do this shit for a living. -
You and some other idiots are the only ones that continue to bring that link up ...RoadDawg55 said:
Keep telling yourself you aren't the exact same as Aubbie.Tequilla said:How is what I said then any different than what I said yesterday?
I talked about how ASU forces the opposition to hit chunk plays ...
I talked about how we hit a few in the running game ...
I also talked about how the running game wasn't particularly consistent ...
If you go back and re-read the TL, DR shit, you'd realize that my criticisms of Smith weren't focused on whether he ran the ball or didn't run the ball, it was that his play calling was often without a plan and very predictable. He doesn't zag when others zig. It was tremendously predictable (to my eyes) which means that it probably is predictable to those that do this shit for a living.
It's downright amusing to me to see people pull up quotes from months ago that are hitting all the same bullet points as I am in the present and try to act like they aren't. -
It's downright amusing to see you doog it up and try to rationalize two underwhelming seasons that present at the very least, a decent amount of doubt as to whether Pete can bring us to the conference title, let alone the playoffs.Tequilla said:
You and some other idiots are the only ones that continue to bring that link up ...RoadDawg55 said:
Keep telling yourself you aren't the exact same as Aubbie.Tequilla said:How is what I said then any different than what I said yesterday?
I talked about how ASU forces the opposition to hit chunk plays ...
I talked about how we hit a few in the running game ...
I also talked about how the running game wasn't particularly consistent ...
If you go back and re-read the TL, DR shit, you'd realize that my criticisms of Smith weren't focused on whether he ran the ball or didn't run the ball, it was that his play calling was often without a plan and very predictable. He doesn't zag when others zig. It was tremendously predictable (to my eyes) which means that it probably is predictable to those that do this shit for a living.
It's downright amusing to me to see people pull up quotes from months ago that are hitting all the same bullet points as I am in the present and try to act like they aren't.
