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  • GrundleStiltzkin
    GrundleStiltzkin Member Posts: 61,516 Standard Supporter
    Wow, Obama's really doing nothing about the population explosion, not to mention that carbon footprint. Terrible.
  • sarktastic
    sarktastic Member Posts: 9,208
    Interesting how you view this interpretation of a housing report as 'good news'.

    Telling, actually.
  • greenblood
    greenblood Member Posts: 14,560
    Supply and demand dipshit.

    We have a rising home market in large part because of the fear of rising insterest rates. People realize that they can buy now at 4.25% or wait a year and possibly have to pay 5.5%. Thus, there are currently more buyers in the market than available properties which prompts higher home prices. This leads to more home construction. Once the supply matches demand mid next year, you'll see a softening or pull back in the housing market. This push and pull motion is the normal fluctuation in the industry.
  • sarktastic
    sarktastic Member Posts: 9,208
    We have a rising market in large part from foreign all cash purchases, too.

    Fundamentals of typical first time and/or move up buyers absolutely suck.

    Supply will further tighten as the homeless Hondurans find assistance into waterfront 'quasi'-government owned homes.
  • 2001400ex
    2001400ex Member Posts: 29,457

    We have a rising market in large part from foreign all cash purchases, too.

    Fundamentals of typical first time and/or move up buyers absolutely suck.

    Supply will further tighten as the homeless Hondurans find assistance into waterfront 'quasi'-government owned homes.

    I heard that exact same thing from Rush this morning. Nice work.
  • sarktastic
    sarktastic Member Posts: 9,208
    The beauty of your schtick is that you can invent anything you want and call it truth... and still get paid.
  • dnc
    dnc Member Posts: 56,840
    2001400ex said:

    We have a rising market in large part from foreign all cash purchases, too.

    Fundamentals of typical first time and/or move up buyers absolutely suck.

    Supply will further tighten as the homeless Hondurans find assistance into waterfront 'quasi'-government owned homes.

    I heard that exact same thing from Rush this morning. Nice work.
    Rush > Styx
  • 2001400ex
    2001400ex Member Posts: 29,457
    edited July 2015

    The beauty of your schtick is that you can invent anything you want and call it truth... and still get paid.

    But what you believe is the only truth. Its what the daily caller and breitbart state.
  • sarktastic
    sarktastic Member Posts: 9,208
    TRUMP-RUSH 2016
  • RaceBannon
    RaceBannon Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 114,236 Founders Club
    There is a shadow inventory of bank owned and foreclosure ready houses that the banks have done a masterful job of playing a shell game with to prop up prices on the ones they let to market.

    In the early foreclosure days there was so much inventory that it was both an investor and buyer paradise. The banks want the money.

    Government regulation to "help" people keep their homes (for awhile) plays right in to that.

    The reduced demand is why new homes became profitable to build again.

    Just keep in mine we are in another bubble and they always pop. And its still anemic anyway. You don't need to be a Rush dick sucker to know that if you use percentages compared to the worst of the crash you can pretend things are great.

  • greenblood
    greenblood Member Posts: 14,560

    There is a shadow inventory of bank owned and foreclosure ready houses that the banks have done a masterful job of playing a shell game with to prop up prices on the ones they let to market.

    In the early foreclosure days there was so much inventory that it was both an investor and buyer paradise. The banks want the money.

    Government regulation to "help" people keep their homes (for awhile) plays right in to that.

    The reduced demand supply is why new homes became profitable to build again.

    Just keep in mine we are in another bubble and they always pop. And its still anemic anyway. You don't need to be a Rush dick sucker to know that if you use percentages compared to the worst of the crash you can pretend things are great.

  • 2001400ex
    2001400ex Member Posts: 29,457

    There is a shadow inventory of bank owned and foreclosure ready houses that the banks have done a masterful job of playing a shell game with to prop up prices on the ones they let to market.

    In the early foreclosure days there was so much inventory that it was both an investor and buyer paradise. The banks want the money.

    Government regulation to "help" people keep their homes (for awhile) plays right in to that.

    The reduced demand is why new homes became profitable to build again.

    Just keep in mine we are in another bubble and they always pop. And its still anemic anyway. You don't need to be a Rush dick sucker to know that if you use percentages compared to the worst of the crash you can pretend things are great.

    That was so 4 years ago. Ask Kim, he'll tell you the shadow inventory is gone.

    But seriously, drive around, there aren't really vacant homes and homes are selling quickly. If you can see that, I can't help you.
  • greenblood
    greenblood Member Posts: 14,560
    2001400ex said:

    There is a shadow inventory of bank owned and foreclosure ready houses that the banks have done a masterful job of playing a shell game with to prop up prices on the ones they let to market.

    In the early foreclosure days there was so much inventory that it was both an investor and buyer paradise. The banks want the money.

    Government regulation to "help" people keep their homes (for awhile) plays right in to that.

    The reduced demand is why new homes became profitable to build again.

    Just keep in mine we are in another bubble and they always pop. And its still anemic anyway. You don't need to be a Rush dick sucker to know that if you use percentages compared to the worst of the crash you can pretend things are great.

    That was so 4 years ago. Ask Kim, he'll tell you the shadow inventory is gone.

    But seriously, drive around, there aren't really vacant homes and homes are selling quickly. If you can see that, I can't help you.
    I live in a newer development and there are 2 bank owned vacant properties within a block of me, and they've been vacant for almost two years.
  • Blackie
    Blackie Member Posts: 499
    2001400ex said:

    There is a shadow inventory of bank owned and foreclosure ready houses that the banks have done a masterful job of playing a shell game with to prop up prices on the ones they let to market.

    In the early foreclosure days there was so much inventory that it was both an investor and buyer paradise. The banks want the money.

    Government regulation to "help" people keep their homes (for awhile) plays right in to that.

    The reduced demand is why new homes became profitable to build again.

    Just keep in mine we are in another bubble and they always pop. And its still anemic anyway. You don't need to be a Rush dick sucker to know that if you use percentages compared to the worst of the crash you can pretend things are great.

    That was so 4 years ago. Ask Kim, he'll tell you the shadow inventory is gone.

    But seriously, drive around, there aren't really vacant homes and homes are selling quickly. If you can see that, I can't help you.
    you're conflating weather with climate
  • whatshouldicareabout
    whatshouldicareabout Member Posts: 12,992
    Flagged for linking mobile
  • sarktastic
    sarktastic Member Posts: 9,208

    2001400ex said:

    There is a shadow inventory of bank owned and foreclosure ready houses that the banks have done a masterful job of playing a shell game with to prop up prices on the ones they let to market.

    In the early foreclosure days there was so much inventory that it was both an investor and buyer paradise. The banks want the money.

    Government regulation to "help" people keep their homes (for awhile) plays right in to that.

    The reduced demand is why new homes became profitable to build again.

    Just keep in mine we are in another bubble and they always pop. And its still anemic anyway. You don't need to be a Rush dick sucker to know that if you use percentages compared to the worst of the crash you can pretend things are great.

    That was so 4 years ago. Ask Kim, he'll tell you the shadow inventory is gone.

    But seriously, drive around, there aren't really vacant homes and homes are selling quickly. If you can see that, I can't help you.
    I live in a newer development and there are 2 bank owned vacant properties within a block of me, and they've been vacant for almost two years.
    Yeah but, drive around. The markets great. There aren't any more vacant houses.
  • RaceBannon
    RaceBannon Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 114,236 Founders Club

    2001400ex said:

    There is a shadow inventory of bank owned and foreclosure ready houses that the banks have done a masterful job of playing a shell game with to prop up prices on the ones they let to market.

    In the early foreclosure days there was so much inventory that it was both an investor and buyer paradise. The banks want the money.

    Government regulation to "help" people keep their homes (for awhile) plays right in to that.

    The reduced demand is why new homes became profitable to build again.

    Just keep in mine we are in another bubble and they always pop. And its still anemic anyway. You don't need to be a Rush dick sucker to know that if you use percentages compared to the worst of the crash you can pretend things are great.

    That was so 4 years ago. Ask Kim, he'll tell you the shadow inventory is gone.

    But seriously, drive around, there aren't really vacant homes and homes are selling quickly. If you can see that, I can't help you.
    I live in a newer development and there are 2 bank owned vacant properties within a block of me, and they've been vacant for almost two years.

    Exactly. thanks for the correction on supply. HondoFS doesn't even realize that 4 years ago is what I was talking about when the market wasn't artificially constricted and it was investor paradise. Hedge funds bought thousands of homes in California. When the new regs kicked in and the banks got tired of other people making money they left over night
  • greenblood
    greenblood Member Posts: 14,560

    2001400ex said:

    There is a shadow inventory of bank owned and foreclosure ready houses that the banks have done a masterful job of playing a shell game with to prop up prices on the ones they let to market.

    In the early foreclosure days there was so much inventory that it was both an investor and buyer paradise. The banks want the money.

    Government regulation to "help" people keep their homes (for awhile) plays right in to that.

    The reduced demand is why new homes became profitable to build again.

    Just keep in mine we are in another bubble and they always pop. And its still anemic anyway. You don't need to be a Rush dick sucker to know that if you use percentages compared to the worst of the crash you can pretend things are great.

    That was so 4 years ago. Ask Kim, he'll tell you the shadow inventory is gone.

    But seriously, drive around, there aren't really vacant homes and homes are selling quickly. If you can see that, I can't help you.
    I live in a newer development and there are 2 bank owned vacant properties within a block of me, and they've been vacant for almost two years.
    Yeah but, drive around. The markets great. There aren't any more vacant houses.
    but still.........
  • 2001400ex
    2001400ex Member Posts: 29,457
    Holy shit the shit posting intensified. This only goes until 2012 but you can see the trend. I'm too fucking lazy to dig for 2015.

    photo Q1HVSHomeownerVacancy_zpshqx0u4rs.jpg
  • 2001400ex
    2001400ex Member Posts: 29,457

    2001400ex said:

    Holy shit the shit posting intensified. This only goes until 2012 but you can see the trend. I'm too fucking lazy to dig for 2015.

    photo Q1HVSHomeownerVacancy_zpshqx0u4rs.jpg

    Table 1. Rental and Homeowner Vacancy Rates for the United States: 1965 to 2015
    (in percent)

    Rental Vacancy Rates Homeowner Vacancy Rates


    First Quarter Second Quarter Third Quarter Fourth Quarter First Quarter Second Quarter Third Quarter Fourth Quarter
    Year


    2015...…………..…….7.1 1.9
    2014...…………..…….8.3 7.5 7.4 7.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.9
    2013...…………..…….8.6 8.2 8.3 8.2 2.1 1.9 1.9 2.1
    2012...…………..…….8.8 8.6 8.6 8.7 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.9
    2011…………………...9.7 9.2 9.8 9.4 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3
    2010…………………. .10.6 10.6 10.3 9.4 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.7

    2009…………………. 10.1 10.6 11.1 10.7 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.7
    2008…………………. 10.1 10.0 9.9 10.1 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.9
    2007…………………. 10.1 9.5 9.8 9.6 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.8
    2006…….…………… 9.5 9.6 9.9 9.8 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.7
    2005…………………. 10.1 9.8 9.9 9.6 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0
    2004…………………. 10.4 10.2 10.1 10.0 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8
    2003.………....……… 9.4 9.6 9.9 10.2 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.8
    2002\r1…………..… 9.1 8.4 9.0 9.3 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
    2002......……...………9.1 8.5 9.1 9.4 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
    2001......………….…..8.2 8.3 8.4 8.8 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.8
    2000......………….…..7.9 8.0 8.2 7.8 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6

    1999........…………….8.2 8.1 8.2 7.9 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.6
    1998...........…………..7.7 8.0 8.2 7.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8
    1997...........…………..7.5 7.9 7.9 7.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.7
    1996...........…………..7.9 7.8 8.0 7.7 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.7
    1995.......………..........7.4 7.7 7.7 7.7 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.6
    1994.....….……….......7.5 7.4 7.2 7.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.6
    1993\r2.........………...7.8 7.6 7.0 6.9 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4
    1993.......…………......7.9 7.6 7.1 6.9 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4
    1992.......…………......7.4 7.7 7.3 7.1 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5
    1991.......…………......7.5 7.3 7.6 7.3 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.6
    1990.......…………......7.5 7.0 7.2 7.2 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7

    1989\r3.....…………....7.5 7.4 7.6 7.1 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.8
    1989.....…………........7.3 7.3 7.3 6.8 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.6
    1988......………….......8.0 7.7 7.8 7.3 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6
    1987........………….....7.4 7.5 8.1 7.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6
    1986......………….......6.9 7.3 7.5 7.7 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.6
    1985......………….......6.3 6.2 6.8 6.7 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.6
    1984..…………...........5.6 5.5 6.0 6.3 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7
    1983..…………...........5.7 5.5 5.8 5.5 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6
    1982..…………...........5.3 5.1 5.3 5.5 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.6
    1981..…………...........5.2 5.0 5.0 5.0 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.4
    1980..…………...........5.2 5.6 5.7 5.0 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4

    1979\r4.....…………....5.1 5.5 5.7 5.4 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3
    1979……….…............4.8 5.0 5.2 5.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1
    1978...…………..........5.0 5.1 5.0 5.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.1
    1977..…………...........5.1 5.3 5.4 5.1 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.0
    1976.......…………......5.5 5.8 5.7 5.3 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2
    1975...…………..........6.1 6.3 6.2 5.4 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.2
    1974...…………..........6.2 6.3 6.2 6.0 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3
    1973...…………..........5.7 5.8 5.8 5.8 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.2
    1972...…………..........5.3 5.5 5.8 5.6 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0
    1971...…………..........5.3 5.3 5.6 5.6 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0
    1970.......…………......5.4 5.4 5.3 5.2 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1
    1969.....…………........5.6 5.7 5.5 5.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0
    1968..…………...........6.1 6.2 5.9 5.4 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2
    1967..…………...........7.3 6.9 7.0 6.2 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.3
    1966..…………...........8.3 7.4 7.4 7.7 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3
    1965..…………...........8.5 8.2 7.8 8.5 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.5
    Footnotes:
    \r1 Revised based on the 2000 Census.
    \r2 Revised based on the 1990 Census.
    \r3 Revised to include year-round vacant mobile homes.
    \r4 Revised to reflect changes made in 1980. See Source and Accuracy Statement for more information.

    This chart from the census goes to first quarter 2015. Left side is rental vacancy by quarter and the right side is homeowner vacancy by quarter, all pertaining to the described year.

    As you can see there is a considerable change on rental vacancy. One major cause of this, is the increased purchase of homes as investment properties. When you see a downturn in the housing market, the rich take advantage and purchase houses on the cheap and rent them out, with the intention of selling them as the housing market recovers for a huge profit.

    Since the sizable drop in 2012 as your graph ends, the homeowner vacancy platoos. Thus, proving Race's point.

    I love how you conveniently post a graph that ends in 2012, when in 30 seconds I find this chart from the same source.

    image
    Going from 2.2 to 1.9 us a plateau? Especially when the rate was last 1.9 was in 2005.

    Yes that's exactly what you guys just posted. Or something.
  • greenblood
    greenblood Member Posts: 14,560
    2001400ex said:

    2001400ex said:

    Holy shit the shit posting intensified. This only goes until 2012 but you can see the trend. I'm too fucking lazy to dig for 2015.

    photo Q1HVSHomeownerVacancy_zpshqx0u4rs.jpg

    Table 1. Rental and Homeowner Vacancy Rates for the United States: 1965 to 2015
    (in percent)

    Rental Vacancy Rates Homeowner Vacancy Rates


    First Quarter Second Quarter Third Quarter Fourth Quarter First Quarter Second Quarter Third Quarter Fourth Quarter
    Year


    2015...…………..…….7.1 1.9
    2014...…………..…….8.3 7.5 7.4 7.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.9
    2013...…………..…….8.6 8.2 8.3 8.2 2.1 1.9 1.9 2.1
    2012...…………..…….8.8 8.6 8.6 8.7 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.9
    2011…………………...9.7 9.2 9.8 9.4 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3
    2010…………………. .10.6 10.6 10.3 9.4 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.7

    2009…………………. 10.1 10.6 11.1 10.7 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.7
    2008…………………. 10.1 10.0 9.9 10.1 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.9
    2007…………………. 10.1 9.5 9.8 9.6 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.8
    2006…….…………… 9.5 9.6 9.9 9.8 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.7
    2005…………………. 10.1 9.8 9.9 9.6 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0
    2004…………………. 10.4 10.2 10.1 10.0 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8
    2003.………....……… 9.4 9.6 9.9 10.2 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.8
    2002\r1…………..… 9.1 8.4 9.0 9.3 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
    2002......……...………9.1 8.5 9.1 9.4 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
    2001......………….…..8.2 8.3 8.4 8.8 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.8
    2000......………….…..7.9 8.0 8.2 7.8 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6

    1999........…………….8.2 8.1 8.2 7.9 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.6
    1998...........…………..7.7 8.0 8.2 7.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8
    1997...........…………..7.5 7.9 7.9 7.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.7
    1996...........…………..7.9 7.8 8.0 7.7 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.7
    1995.......………..........7.4 7.7 7.7 7.7 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.6
    1994.....….……….......7.5 7.4 7.2 7.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.6
    1993\r2.........………...7.8 7.6 7.0 6.9 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4
    1993.......…………......7.9 7.6 7.1 6.9 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4
    1992.......…………......7.4 7.7 7.3 7.1 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5
    1991.......…………......7.5 7.3 7.6 7.3 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.6
    1990.......…………......7.5 7.0 7.2 7.2 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7

    1989\r3.....…………....7.5 7.4 7.6 7.1 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.8
    1989.....…………........7.3 7.3 7.3 6.8 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.6
    1988......………….......8.0 7.7 7.8 7.3 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6
    1987........………….....7.4 7.5 8.1 7.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6
    1986......………….......6.9 7.3 7.5 7.7 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.6
    1985......………….......6.3 6.2 6.8 6.7 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.6
    1984..…………...........5.6 5.5 6.0 6.3 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7
    1983..…………...........5.7 5.5 5.8 5.5 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6
    1982..…………...........5.3 5.1 5.3 5.5 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.6
    1981..…………...........5.2 5.0 5.0 5.0 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.4
    1980..…………...........5.2 5.6 5.7 5.0 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4

    1979\r4.....…………....5.1 5.5 5.7 5.4 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3
    1979……….…............4.8 5.0 5.2 5.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1
    1978...…………..........5.0 5.1 5.0 5.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.1
    1977..…………...........5.1 5.3 5.4 5.1 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.0
    1976.......…………......5.5 5.8 5.7 5.3 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2
    1975...…………..........6.1 6.3 6.2 5.4 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.2
    1974...…………..........6.2 6.3 6.2 6.0 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3
    1973...…………..........5.7 5.8 5.8 5.8 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.2
    1972...…………..........5.3 5.5 5.8 5.6 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0
    1971...…………..........5.3 5.3 5.6 5.6 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0
    1970.......…………......5.4 5.4 5.3 5.2 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1
    1969.....…………........5.6 5.7 5.5 5.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0
    1968..…………...........6.1 6.2 5.9 5.4 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2
    1967..…………...........7.3 6.9 7.0 6.2 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.3
    1966..…………...........8.3 7.4 7.4 7.7 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3
    1965..…………...........8.5 8.2 7.8 8.5 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.5
    Footnotes:
    \r1 Revised based on the 2000 Census.
    \r2 Revised based on the 1990 Census.
    \r3 Revised to include year-round vacant mobile homes.
    \r4 Revised to reflect changes made in 1980. See Source and Accuracy Statement for more information.

    This chart from the census goes to first quarter 2015. Left side is rental vacancy by quarter and the right side is homeowner vacancy by quarter, all pertaining to the described year.

    As you can see there is a considerable change on rental vacancy. One major cause of this, is the increased purchase of homes as investment properties. When you see a downturn in the housing market, the rich take advantage and purchase houses on the cheap and rent them out, with the intention of selling them as the housing market recovers for a huge profit.

    Since the sizable drop in 2012 as your graph ends, the homeowner vacancy platoos. Thus, proving Race's point.

    I love how you conveniently post a graph that ends in 2012, when in 30 seconds I find this chart from the same source.

    image
    Going from 2.2 to 1.9 us a plateau? Especially when the rate was last 1.9 was in 2005.

    Yes that's exactly what you guys just posted. Or something.
    It went from 2.2 to 1.9 to 2.1 to 1.8 and now up to 1.9. A .3 percentage rate drop is pretty level over a three period, especially compared to the .4 percentage rate drop in year 2011 alone, which your graph conveniently ends at. By ending at 2011, you mislead the board by not showing the full picture.
  • HuskyJW
    HuskyJW Member Posts: 15,316
    My 2200 sq. ft mansion in Orchards will be done on Aug. 18th. Even with 30K in upgrades is still cheaper than buying somebody else's house.
  • sarktastic
    sarktastic Member Posts: 9,208
    Does this include the number of homes held 'offbooks' by the banks and GSE's?