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It’s 2017 again

LoneStarDawg
LoneStarDawg Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 13,680 Founders Club
Can’t help but see the parallels between now and after the Peach bowl.

- UW just finished a miracle run bringing themselves back to the national conversation
- Our stars took us the distance but we saw how we need true depth and a couple more dudes to get over the hump
- Lingering questions if our brand/style of football is good enough to win it all
- Emotional/transitional core of the team is leaving, new leaders need to emerge
- We know we now have tier 1 coaches, need to see if we have tier 1 recruiters/org.

Kalen has the energy and drive to push the program forward in a way that Petersen just didn’t, but we still need to assess the coaches and broader org if it’s ready to consistently be here. NIL/recruiting needs to take a step forward and be an unquestioned differentiator not just try to keep up. We will not have enough talent fall on our lap through local or legacy guys year in year out. Not enough diamonds in the rough to be tier 1 in a crowded new conference.

2017-19 didn’t play out the way we wanted or expected, and the road forward is more daunting and unknown than it was then. Lets see how busy Kalen and the AD gets this offseason

Winners win in January they don’t take vacation
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Comments

  • dirtysouwfdawg
    dirtysouwfdawg Member Posts: 14,086
    Who on the D staff would you consider tier 1? Can’t subscribe to that one but think you nailed everything else.
  • whlinder
    whlinder Member Posts: 5,266
    Excellent poast.

    Still never really figured out why the offense in 2016 and moving forward was so clunky; probably a combo of Pete philosophy and skill limitations. Definitely good players on that offense; the overall skill level of the offense in that time period I think was higher than the current skill level of our defense.
  • AEB
    AEB Member Posts: 2,994
    Having Courtney Morgan I think will prove to a big, positive difference from 2017. Great Athletic article about how he recruited the Michigan class (especially the DL) that beat us(?). He’s organizing the roster and targeting recruits across HS and the portal. With the higher profile will come better players.
  • FireCohen
    FireCohen Member Posts: 21,823
    We will be 8-4 next year
  • dnc
    dnc Member Posts: 56,839
    2017 had a lot more returning talent than 2024. If we can have a 2017 like season it will bode really well going forward.
  • WoolleyDoog
    WoolleyDoog Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 5,052 Founders Club
    FireCohen said:

    We will be 8-4 next year

    I think next year depends on how much of a wizard DeBoer really is. I'm pulling for 10-2 as a realistic goal. I was cocky about UW's scheme being able to throw over and around the Big 10 but Monday has me really questioning that, especially on the road.
  • AtomicDawg
    AtomicDawg Member Posts: 7,330
    AEB said:

    Having Courtney Morgan I think will prove to a big, positive difference from 2017. Great Athletic article about how he recruited the Michigan class (especially the DL) that beat us(?). He’s organizing the roster and targeting recruits across HS and the portal. With the higher profile will come better players.

    Recruiting was not our problem with Pete after 2016. It was his shitty offense and tightness in big games. Recruiting seems to be a bigger issue now and it has more to do with money.
  • sinceredawg
    sinceredawg Member Posts: 834

    Strengths are flipped, we have tier 1 offense, defense trying to keep up. In 17 it was a tier 1 defense and ultimately a clunky offense.

    Not sure this is a valid conclusion. We had more talent on offense, it seemed. But there were too many games where it was our defense that won it, or kept us in it.
  • biak1
    biak1 Member Posts: 4,237
    Next year is clearly a transition year whilst waiting for the Mack show. 10 wins is feasible but that comes down to KDB genius (or not). There are more pieces missing/being lost compared to the 2017 team. Not a lot of younger guys flashing this year. Germie and ?
  • PurpleBaze
    PurpleBaze Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 30,309 Founders Club
    FireCohen said:

    We will be 8-4 next year

    5-7

    @MikeDamone
  • LoneStarDawg
    LoneStarDawg Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 13,680 Founders Club
    edited January 2024
    Either way it’s a big show me season… try to bolster against regressing, see how we can leverage success into recruiting and KDB installing his program even further

    After 2016 I’m sure none of us thought that was the Petersen high point, in hindsight it was. Let’s see how KDB takes the next step.
  • FireCohen
    FireCohen Member Posts: 21,823
    edited January 2024

    FireCohen said:

    We will be 8-4 next year

    I think next year depends on how much of a wizard DeBoer really is. I'm pulling for 10-2 as a realistic goal. I was cocky about UW's scheme being able to throw over and around the Big 10 but Monday has me really questioning that, especially on the road.
    I was on the same boat at 10-2, but that was with Polk returning. With Polk leaving 8-4 more realistic
  • dirtysouwfdawg
    dirtysouwfdawg Member Posts: 14,086
    FireCohen said:

    We will be 8-4 next year

    Top 12 finish or GFYS deboner.
  • WoolleyDoog
    WoolleyDoog Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 5,052 Founders Club
    I hate it but really feels like WE were in a much better place personnel wise going into 2017 and that's not even knowing how truly great Vita was gonna be. I don't think Deboer is burnt out like Petersen was though and he's not gonna ruin his QB the way that regime did with Browning.
  • LoneStarDawg
    LoneStarDawg Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 13,680 Founders Club
    Agreed 17 had better pieces coming back and had a higher ceiling as a result.

    My point is that it’s now program building time. We need to recruit at an elite level now. Petersen struggled to convert 2016 into consistent talent and depth, this is a big show me off-season for KDB and the staff. I expect results on the field taking a step back this fall, however are we putting the pieces in place to get back to this point and go further.

    If Dannen tries to nickel and dime, KDB shrivel dicks in recruiting, and/or we try to make this current style of football permanent then TPIO.

    We failed to convert 2016 isn’t blue blood zone, eyes are on Dannen and KDB to cash in this equity
  • FireCohen
    FireCohen Member Posts: 21,823

    I hate it but really feels like WE were in a much better place personnel wise going into 2017 and that's not even knowing how truly great Vita was gonna be. I don't think Deboer is burnt out like Petersen was though and he's not gonna ruin his QB the way that regime did with Browning.

    Unless we see some major movement in the portal, not sure the roster is position to generate that many wins. We also got some lucky bounces our way this year.
  • Houhusky
    Houhusky Member Posts: 5,537
    FireCohen said:

    I hate it but really feels like WE were in a much better place personnel wise going into 2017 and that's not even knowing how truly great Vita was gonna be. I don't think Deboer is burnt out like Petersen was though and he's not gonna ruin his QB the way that regime did with Browning.

    Unless we see some major movement in the portal, not sure the roster is position to generate that many wins. We also got some lucky bounces our way this year.
    As the roster is now, with Kalepo and McMillen leaving, basically no DL, and still no real S help, its a 7-8 win team next year... which is pretty shitty because its not a particularly young team either.
  • RoadTrip
    RoadTrip Member Posts: 8,145

    Can’t help but see the parallels between now and after the Peach bowl.

    - UW just finished a miracle run bringing themselves back to the national conversation
    - Our stars took us the distance but we saw how we need true depth and a couple more dudes to get over the hump
    - Lingering questions if our brand/style of football is good enough to win it all
    - Emotional/transitional core of the team is leaving, new leaders need to emerge
    - We know we now have tier 1 coaches, need to see if we have tier 1 recruiters/org.

    Kalen has the energy and drive to push the program forward in a way that Petersen just didn’t, but we still need to assess the coaches and broader org if it’s ready to consistently be here. NIL/recruiting needs to take a step forward and be an unquestioned differentiator not just try to keep up. We will not have enough talent fall on our lap through local or legacy guys year in year out. Not enough diamonds in the rough to be tier 1 in a crowded new conference.

    2017-19 didn’t play out the way we wanted or expected, and the road forward is more daunting and unknown than it was then. Lets see how busy Kalen and the AD gets this offseason

    Winners win in January they don’t take vacation

    Excellent synopsis but I have a slightly different take than your bolded statement above. Those years didn’t play out like we wanted because Peterson wasn't who we thought he was. Actually, it turns out he was exactly what many here claimed he was. Did he help right the ship? Absolutely, but he was never going to be the leader and recruiter a program like Washington's needed to be a top 5-10 program consistently. As you stated, the jury is still out on DeBoer and his guys but I think he's suited more to be that guy than Peterson was and the program doesn't appear to have a 2 year Jimmy Lake debacle on the horizon any time soon.
  • WoolleyDoog
    WoolleyDoog Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 5,052 Founders Club
    Houhusky said:

    FireCohen said:

    I hate it but really feels like WE were in a much better place personnel wise going into 2017 and that's not even knowing how truly great Vita was gonna be. I don't think Deboer is burnt out like Petersen was though and he's not gonna ruin his QB the way that regime did with Browning.

    Unless we see some major movement in the portal, not sure the roster is position to generate that many wins. We also got some lucky bounces our way this year.
    As the roster is now, with Kalepo and McMillen leaving, basically no DL, and still no real S help, its a 7-8 win team next year... which is pretty shitty because its not a particularly young team either.
    Kalepo is for sure gone? I just saw an oddly worded tweet from him like he was gone. Doesn't seem like a major draft prospect yet and could benefit from a final year of development and getting attention as a guy who goes into the preseason with some buzz.
  • FireCohen
    FireCohen Member Posts: 21,823

    Agree/Disagree.

    Yes, DeBoer and staff have work to do to get us over the hump, but from that's where the parallels start to fade.

    DeBoer is still relatively young and (we have to assume) hungry. Pete was burned out in 2014.

    DeBoer Years 1-2 blow the doors off Pete Years 1-2 and he's already surpassed anything Pete ever achieved here.

    8-4 with roster as currently constructed, would be miracle work. He needs to hit the portal for DL and OL. let's see what he does
  • YellowSnow
    YellowSnow Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 37,217 Founders Club

    Agreed 17 had better pieces coming back and had a higher ceiling as a result.

    My point is that it’s now program building time. We need to recruit at an elite level now. Petersen struggled to convert 2016 into consistent talent and depth, this is a big show me off-season for KDB and the staff. I expect results on the field taking a step back this fall, however are we putting the pieces in place to get back to this point and go further.

    If Dannen tries to nickel and dime, KDB shrivel dicks in recruiting, and/or we try to make this current style of football permanent then TPIO.

    We failed to convert 2016 isn’t blue blood zone, eyes are on Dannen and KDB to cash in this equity

    How will we determine the early returns on adding more "consistent talent and depth" I'm wondering? Petersen's recruiting by TBS metrics improved after 2016 and we got worse after that year.
  • RoadTrip
    RoadTrip Member Posts: 8,145
    edited January 2024
    Houhusky said:

    FireCohen said:

    I hate it but really feels like WE were in a much better place personnel wise going into 2017 and that's not even knowing how truly great Vita was gonna be. I don't think Deboer is burnt out like Petersen was though and he's not gonna ruin his QB the way that regime did with Browning.

    Unless we see some major movement in the portal, not sure the roster is position to generate that many wins. We also got some lucky bounces our way this year.
    As the roster is now, with Kalepo and McMillen leaving, basically no DL, and still no real S help, its a 7-8 win team next year... which is pretty shitty because its not a particularly young team either.
    I haven't read the bored and this is the 1st I'm reading about who's leaving. So it's McMillen, Polk and Kalepo on top of all the stars we already knew about? That sucks but was predictable. Likely a 7-8 win rebuilding season in that case or DeBoer proves just how valuable he really is.
  • WoolleyDoog
    WoolleyDoog Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 5,052 Founders Club
    RoadTrip said:

    Houhusky said:

    FireCohen said:

    I hate it but really feels like WE were in a much better place personnel wise going into 2017 and that's not even knowing how truly great Vita was gonna be. I don't think Deboer is burnt out like Petersen was though and he's not gonna ruin his QB the way that regime did with Browning.

    Unless we see some major movement in the portal, not sure the roster is position to generate that many wins. We also got some lucky bounces our way this year.
    As the roster is now, with Kalepo and McMillen leaving, basically no DL, and still no real S help, its a 7-8 win team next year... which is pretty shitty because its not a particularly young team either.
    I haven't read the bored and this is the 1st I'm reading about who's leaving. So it's McMillen, Polk and Kalepo on top of all the stars we already knew about? That sucks but was predictable. Likely a 7-8 win rebuilding season in that case or DeBoer proves just how valuable he really is.
    Polk is the only one who has declared. Odunze, Fautanu, and Trice seem like there's no way and McMillan, DJ, and Jabbar seem only a matter of time. I assume people are reading a kind of cryptic tweet from Kalepo that he's leaving and I saw a tweet from Tuitele that read like he is gone, retiring I assume, and have heard Bandes is retiring.
  • Canadawg
    Canadawg Member Posts: 5,264
    Cannot wrap my head around this 8-4 talk. We have a good coach. You're safe now