Most recent Audible - Cult of TBS Meltdown

YellowSnow

Definitely worth a listen. Ari Wasserman is still in shock and disbelief that there's no 247 Composite "Super Team" in the Natty Game.

Michigan winning, he thinks would be the biggest talent gap outlier in the past 20 years, although I'm not quite sure where they rank compared with 2010 Auburn and 2016 and 18 Clemson.

Washington would break all the records here and cause every TBS head to explode.

Combo of elite Coaching, NIL and TP are tearing apart the script.

https://theathletic.com/podcast/97-the-audible-with-bruce-and-stew/

whlinder

I listened and agree it's worth a listen since Mandel has no other football allegiances (no ESPN attachment) and Feldman (w/ only Fox bias) goes after Wasserman pretty hard.

BleachedAnusDawg

I'm looking forward to half of the TBS websites going out of business thanks to NIL.

YellowSnow

whlinder said:

I listened and agree it's worth a listen since Mandel has no other football allegiances (no ESPN attachment) and Feldman (w/ only Fox bias) goes after Wasserman pretty hard.

I've been following closely the TBS vs Coaching Halfbrain wars since 2015.

@RoadDawg55 and @PostGameOrangeSlices seem to have the upper hand now.

GreenRiverGatorz

The whole 247 composite thing was an iron law for all of what, 15 years? Talent obviously matters, and it's exactly why the law of averages say that a transfer who has proven himself at the P5 level is worth a lot fucking more than a single blue chip recruit who still has a great chance of flaming out. Even trying to ascribe a "transfer star" rating system is woefully inadequate to capturing the value a good transfer provides.

It's amusing to watch sports writers who flunked history and have no grasp of the sheer magnitude of time get surprised when things change. I'm not surprised they're surprised.

YellowSnow

GreenRiverGatorz said:

The whole 247 composite thing was an iron law for all of what, 15 years? Talent obviously matters, and it's exactly why the law of averages say that a transfer who has proven himself at the P5 level is worth a lot fucking more than a single blue chip recruit who still has a great chance of flaming out. Even trying to ascribe a "transfer star" rating system is woefully inadequate to capturing the value a good transfer provides.

It's amusing to watch sports writers who flunked history and have no grasp of the sheer magnitude of time get surprised when things change. I'm not surprised they're surprised.

So this has been the most head scratcher season in the history of Husky Football, I'd say.

On the one hand, I feel like if our guys are healthy and bring their A game we can beat anyone in the country for 4 quarters. But our lack of depth ( i.e., talent in the 2 and 3 deeps) has made the 14-0 grind maddingly frustrating at times , to the point where I'm shocked where playing for the Natty. How did we not lose a game or two this year? I mean what are the odds?

Good thing this isn't the NBA and we didn't have to play the Ducks in the best of 7.

whlinder

GreenRiverGatorz said:

The whole 247 composite thing was an iron law for all of what, 15 years? Talent obviously matters, and it's exactly why the law of averages say that a transfer who has proven himself at the P5 level is worth a lot fucking more than a single blue chip recruit who still has a great chance of flaming out. Even trying to ascribe a "transfer star" rating system is woefully inadequate to capturing the value a good transfer provides.

It's amusing to watch sports writers who flunked history and have no grasp of the sheer magnitude of time get surprised when things change. I'm not surprised they're surprised.

I mean that's the whole thing right. "Stars" was a measurement of a spectrum of ability and the probabilities of achieving that level of ability.

With transfers and actual evidence of the player playing college football, the spectrum of ability and probabilities of achieving it becoming much higher knowns. So much so that any type of star system based on high school football is complete bullshit.

There is also no timeline ascribed to any of this. What year are you trying to win for? Sure, some 5* TE freshman might be Brock Bowers in 3 years, but Jack Westover is pretty damn good right now. If you don't discount the freshman's contributions for this season you end up with that type of narrow thinking.

PineapplePirate

Ironically I was just listening to some SEC pundits talking about this. I didn’t realize that paid TBSers manipulate star numbers up depending on which teams the player is likely to go to or has committed to.

WoolleyDoog

Saw someone on Twitter with an actual good point, might even be someone who also posts here, say that one of the problems with the TBS business model is it has become it's own like industrial complex. They hype up these kids and build audiences from when they're like 15 now and they get to create their own metrics. These aren't games were there are winners or losers and it doesn't matter to them if the kid pans out or not just if the audience cares in the build up to signing day. The transfer portal is far less important to them because it's very cut and dry and a lot of the kids know exactly where they are going even before they announce they're in the portal.

I think actual high school games mattering less and less and underwear camps and 7 on 7 and every kid transferring to the same private religious school vomiting all over the sport at that level is fucking things up. Being able to turn it up and keep it up in games and games that matter is just something that seems so much more important than the camp circuit.

I'd say a good example is how the camps don't show the ability to consistently bring it every day/week too. I always remember hearing that Smalls got so blown up because he killed it at a big camp early in high school, but then clearly wasn't a guy who could bring it day in and day out, but it was in the TBS complex interest to keep him hyped up.

theknowledge

PineapplePirate said:

Ironically I was just listening to some SEC pundits talking about this. I didn’t realize that paid TBSers manipulate star numbers up depending on which teams the player is likely to go to or has committed to.

The Portal has sapped personnel depth from the SEC. Bama and to a lesser degree Georgia, doesn’t have the amount of juniors and seniors that waited their turn to play. In Alabamas heyday those kids would sit for two, sometimes three years to play. They move on now and get a bag from Miami, Oregon and USC. Even if they don’t end up as superstars at their new schools they were critical pieces to a long and grinding season a decade ago.

YellowSnow

BleachedAnusDawg said:

I'm looking forward to half of the TBS websites going out of business thanks to NIL.

The death of the TBS Industrial Complex ( @WoolleyDoog citation) would please me immensely.

Always thought TBS was the grossest part of College Football and it can DIAFF.

@Swaye and I have both offered our mea culpaz on NIL and Transfer Portal stupidity.

WoolleyDoog

theknowledge said:

PineapplePirate said:

Ironically I was just listening to some SEC pundits talking about this. I didn’t realize that paid TBSers manipulate star numbers up depending on which teams the player is likely to go to or has committed to.

The Portal has sapped personnel depth from the SEC. Bama and to a lesser degree Georgia, doesn’t have the amount of juniors and seniors that waited their turn to play. In Alabamas heyday those kids would sit for two, sometimes three years to play. They move on now and get a bag from Miami, Oregon and USC. Even if they don’t end up as superstars at their new schools they were critical pieces to a long and grinding season a decade ago.

Got me to thinking about getting blown out by Miami in 2001 and then they stick in Vince Wilfork and you're like holy shit this guy is a backup? Guys like that have to play day one now or they leave. You just can't stack talent anymore and it's why Saban is getting flustered.

YellowSnow said:

BleachedAnusDawg said:

I'm looking forward to half of the TBS websites going out of business thanks to NIL.

The death of the TBS Industrial Complex ( @WoolleyDoog citation) would please me immensely.

Always thought TBS was the grossest part of College Football and it can DIAFF.

@Swaye and I have both offered our mea culpaz on NIL and Transfer Portal stupidity.

I'll admit I've been a big TBS guy since the early-2000s. It's not what it used to be though. It's oddly gotten less exciting IMO since it's gotten more popular and guys seem to either lock into schools way earlier than they used to or drag it out and flip flop but it's for show and to drive up their followers.

MelloDawg

WoolleyDoog said:

Saw someone on Twitter with an actual good point, might even be someone who also posts here, say that one of the problems with the TBS business model is it has become it's own like industrial complex. They hype up these kids and build audiences from when they're like 15 now and they get to create their own metrics. These aren't games were there are winners or losers and it doesn't matter to them if the kid pans out or not just if the audience cares in the build up to signing day. The transfer portal is far less important to them because it's very cut and dry and a lot of the kids know exactly where they are going even before they announce they're in the portal.

I think actual high school games mattering less and less and underwear camps and 7 on 7 and every kid transferring to the same private religious school vomiting all over the sport at that level is fucking things up. Being able to turn it up and keep it up in games and games that matter is just something that seems so much more important than the camp circuit.

I'd say a good example is how the camps don't show the ability to consistently bring it every day/week too. I always remember hearing that Smalls got so blown up because he killed it at a big camp early in high school, but then clearly wasn't a guy who could bring it day in and day out, but it was in the TBS complex interest to keep him hyped up.

If we are going to start bashing underwear camps, then I am out!

whlinder

If it’s this comment that’s me, the original thread by Data Dawg I don’t know if he’s here.

https://twitter.com/dubhlinder/status/1743089902554661325?s=46&t=X2Ptfi1YG77g_kWiJ-qHWw

*then

TBS industrial complex is the real term

Neighbor2972

GreenRiverGatorz said:

The whole 247 composite thing was an iron law for all of what, 15 years? Talent obviously matters, and it's exactly why the law of averages say that a transfer who has proven himself at the P5 level is worth a lot fucking more than a single blue chip recruit who still has a great chance of flaming out. Even trying to ascribe a "transfer star" rating system is woefully inadequate to capturing the value a good transfer provides.

It's amusing to watch sports writers who flunked history and have no grasp of the sheer magnitude of time get surprised when things change. I'm not surprised they're surprised.

Yep. There need to be an adjustment to the 'blue chip ratio'. Because a proven good starter transfer is worth atleast 2-3 blue chip high schoolers.

Talent obviously still matters, but the way we've been measuring team talent needs to be updated to reflect how rosters are actually built now.

dirtysouwfdawg

I love being a star whore but can agree it’s flawed at best.

Stars don’t measure heart, work ethic, ability to face adversity, etc. I think peterman was too far in on this. I think deboner and team get this to a more healthy point. They aren’t going only after the high star guys who’ve been blown every day since they were 15. They are getting guys with potential, the right personality attributes, and then turning them over to the strength and condition program and trusting their coaching.

I do like the recruiting class though not in love. It’ll be interesting to see what they do with higher recruited guys that I think they are on the cusp of landing. A natty would help.

DoogmanRefund

If Huard and Smalls were still non contributors on this team they’d make the 247 composite rankings go up, but DJ, Penix, and Muhammad don’t matter.

YellowSnow

DoogmanRefund said:

If Huard and Smalls were still non contributors on this team they’d make the 247 composite rankings go up, but DJ, Penix, and Muhammad don’t matter.

Smalls and Huard as the most important recruits in the history of Husky Football was a low point for this place.

Kingdome_Urinals

Also very important: The SEC used to have the only efficient bag network in CFB.

A lot of top players were probably fine taking (just a theoretical projection) 50-75K a year to ride the bench for two to three years at Bama, GA, LSU...Get coached up, get lots of publicity, increase your eventual draft stock.

Not no more. They can eclipse those figures filling in a position of need at Minnesota or Arizona for all I know, as a sophomore transfer.

When the bigger money can be made NOW, the unique features that created talent monopolies for SEC are lessened dramatically.

Sports media, especially SEC owned ESPN, does not like that picture.

PostGameOrangeSlices

YellowSnow said:

whlinder said:

I listened and agree it's worth a listen since Mandel has no other football allegiances (no ESPN attachment) and Feldman (w/ only Fox bias) goes after Wasserman pretty hard.

I've been following closely the TBS vs Coaching Halfbrain wars since 2015.

@RoadDawg55 and @PostGameOrangeSlices seem to have the upper hand now.

Coaching and transfer portal > impressed with their stars

theknowledge

Kingdome_Urinals said:

Also very important: The SEC used to have the only efficient bag network in CFB.

A lot of top players were probably fine taking (just a theoretical projection) 50-75K a year to ride the bench for two to three years at Bama, GA, LSU...Get coached up, get lots of publicity, increase your eventual draft stock.

Not no more. They can eclipse those figures filling in a position of need at Minnesota or Arizona for all I know, as a sophomore transfer.

When the bigger money can be made NOW, the unique features that created talent monopolies for SEC are lessened dramatically.

Sports media, especially SEC owned ESPN, does not like that picture.

Alabama had full on position deficiencies. OLine, WR, QB, RB. Not sure how many NFL types these groups have but I’ll say not many.