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Two Way Too Early Thoughts on Michigan Game

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  • CFetters_Nacho_LoverCFetters_Nacho_Lover Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 30,414 Founders Club
    AEB said:

    I cant stop thinking about this game. So excited. Listening to every pod, reading every article…especially those written by less technically gifted writers. I have two thoughts to share on our defense going into Monday.

    First, people are conflating our UT defensive performance and strategy with that of our expected Michigan performance. While our defense is good not great, my view was our plan for UT was to contain the passing game… not to be beat by UT throwing. We made trade-offs and were willing to let Texas beat us running if they could. They couldn’t.

    Which leads to the second thought: Michigan can’t beat us with their pass. Therefore, in first and second downs, our D could look more like a 5-2 with one extra big body like Tuitele/Bandes playing alongside Letuligasenoa and Ale with Trice and ZTF on the ends. We’ve got a decade of Harbaugh tape pushing our shit in, and this site specifically shat all over Kwats defensive strategy in those games - 2 DTs. Unlikely Morrell makes the same mistake.

    I think the comp game is Oregon. Oregon team was really good. Nix was a dynamic QB but challenged in the vertical passing game. Oregon ran the ball well. In the CCG, we stoned them unexpectedly in the run game. I think this is similar with a less threatening offense particularly at WRs.

    UW wins rather easily, say 34-17.

    Pretty sure the D started out like this in the Sugar Bowl. Don’t know when they switched it up.
  • sinceredawgsinceredawg Member Posts: 801
    Tequilla said:

    I posted a longer version of this on Twitter/X ... but this game is really simple to me

    Statistically this Michigan team is no better than their version last year ... their run game isn't as explosive, McCarthy is more efficient with another year of experience, and their defense is about the same

    The Big10 was EPICALLY BAD this year at the QB position ... any gains that they have had defensively this year likely can be explained by that

    The most comparable team to Michigan offensively in the PAC is probably what Oregon St has been doing the last few years (arguably with better talent) ... if I'm ranking McCarthy in the context of PAC QBs he's definitely behind Penix, Caleb, and Nix; almost assuredly behind Fifita; likely behind Sanders and Ward; and probably most comparable to DJU

    Last year, the Michigan defense gave up 300+ yards to both CJ Stroud and Aidan O'Connell and about 500 yards against TCU ... a team that frankly isn't as good as this UW team is.

    I find it hard to believe that UW won't be able to throw the ball on them ... the biggest difference that we'll have with Michigan's D is that they'll bring more pressure and blitzes because I don't think that they'll be able to hold up on the back end of things. Protecting Penix and the turnovers will be massive keys.

    Standing up to the Michigan OL on the LOS is an obvious key because unlike Texas they will keep running it until you stop it. That said, their running style is a much better fit for what we're built to defend versus what Texas does trying to get more into space. If the run game is successful they get to lean into the play action game and they'll definitely try a shot with a flea flicker at some point. But outside of Roman Wilson and the TE Loveland, I'm not that concerned about any of their other receiving options.

    If you go through the top end of the talent and compare/contrast whether we're talking about Day 1 or Day 1 + Day 2 NFL picks in this draft, UW's definitely winning that. Because of the brand, the Michigan players have a higher perception to them. But in terms of quality, the balance of the high end quality sits with Washington.

    This just feels like a great matchup for UW ...

    UW - 31
    Michigan - 24

    Teq, curious what you'd say specifically about the talking points of Joe Klatt's segment where he comes to the opposite conclusion?
  • HFNYHFNY Member Posts: 4,906 Standard Supporter
    edited January 4
    Accidental double-post, can't think of something witty at the moment.
  • AOGAOG Member Posts: 1,826
    After reading tequila I think now we? win rather eadily
  • EsophagealFecesEsophagealFeces Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 12,094 Swaye's Wigwam
    Houhusky said:

    Tequilla said:

    I posted a longer version of this on Twitter/X ... but this game is really simple to me

    Statistically this Michigan team is no better than their version last year ... their run game isn't as explosive, McCarthy is more efficient with another year of experience, and their defense is about the same

    The Big10 was EPICALLY BAD this year at the QB position ... any gains that they have had defensively this year likely can be explained by that

    The most comparable team to Michigan offensively in the PAC is probably what Oregon St has been doing the last few years (arguably with better talent) ... if I'm ranking McCarthy in the context of PAC QBs he's definitely behind Penix, Caleb, and Nix; almost assuredly behind Fifita; likely behind Sanders and Ward; and probably most comparable to DJU

    Last year, the Michigan defense gave up 300+ yards to both CJ Stroud and Aidan O'Connell and about 500 yards against TCU ... a team that frankly isn't as good as this UW team is.

    I find it hard to believe that UW won't be able to throw the ball on them ... the biggest difference that we'll have with Michigan's D is that they'll bring more pressure and blitzes because I don't think that they'll be able to hold up on the back end of things. Protecting Penix and the turnovers will be massive keys.

    Standing up to the Michigan OL on the LOS is an obvious key because unlike Texas they will keep running it until you stop it. That said, their running style is a much better fit for what we're built to defend versus what Texas does trying to get more into space. If the run game is successful they get to lean into the play action game and they'll definitely try a shot with a flea flicker at some point. But outside of Roman Wilson and the TE Loveland, I'm not that concerned about any of their other receiving options.

    If you go through the top end of the talent and compare/contrast whether we're talking about Day 1 or Day 1 + Day 2 NFL picks in this draft, UW's definitely winning that. Because of the brand, the Michigan players have a higher perception to them. But in terms of quality, the balance of the high end quality sits with Washington.

    This just feels like a great matchup for UW ...

    UW - 31
    Michigan - 24

    Teq, curious what you'd say specifically about the talking points of Joe Klatt's segment where he comes to the opposite conclusion?
    Klatt thinks that UWs offense is dependent on number of possessions and going fast, he hasn't watched UW.

    The talking point that Michigan has a team specifically to stop a team like UW is actually syphilitic retardation, they play in the fucking Big10, they have a defense to beat big10 teams. Not a single team they ever play has a team/scheme like UW. They dont have some specialized defense focused on stopping a shotgun presnap motion vertical offense with ELITE QB/WR play, it would be retarded to be in the Big10 and build a defense to do so... Besides, this is not an exaggeration, the best offenses they faced all year were fucking Maryland and UNLV.

    I dont know where they are getting it but Klatt literally just repeated the exact same "this defense is built specifically for UW" talking points even regurgitated by retards falling for my 5 reasons post on their board. I haven't heard anyone actually break down what Michigan's defense actually tries to do other than "play defense good". But then again they are all obese drunken puffy jacket wearing Midwesterners stuck in the 80s so Im not surprised.
    This. Alabama’s defenses with 1st round picks all across the DL and in the secondary are what you need to stop this offense. Michigan doesn’t have that. They have a defense built to stop retard offenses like Iowa and Penn State that have dogshit QBs are are content to try to beat you 17-13. If they can’t pressure Penix and fall behind by multiple scores early, a plungering isn’t impossible.
  • TequillaTequilla Member Posts: 19,886

    Tequilla said:

    I posted a longer version of this on Twitter/X ... but this game is really simple to me

    Statistically this Michigan team is no better than their version last year ... their run game isn't as explosive, McCarthy is more efficient with another year of experience, and their defense is about the same

    The Big10 was EPICALLY BAD this year at the QB position ... any gains that they have had defensively this year likely can be explained by that

    The most comparable team to Michigan offensively in the PAC is probably what Oregon St has been doing the last few years (arguably with better talent) ... if I'm ranking McCarthy in the context of PAC QBs he's definitely behind Penix, Caleb, and Nix; almost assuredly behind Fifita; likely behind Sanders and Ward; and probably most comparable to DJU

    Last year, the Michigan defense gave up 300+ yards to both CJ Stroud and Aidan O'Connell and about 500 yards against TCU ... a team that frankly isn't as good as this UW team is.

    I find it hard to believe that UW won't be able to throw the ball on them ... the biggest difference that we'll have with Michigan's D is that they'll bring more pressure and blitzes because I don't think that they'll be able to hold up on the back end of things. Protecting Penix and the turnovers will be massive keys.

    Standing up to the Michigan OL on the LOS is an obvious key because unlike Texas they will keep running it until you stop it. That said, their running style is a much better fit for what we're built to defend versus what Texas does trying to get more into space. If the run game is successful they get to lean into the play action game and they'll definitely try a shot with a flea flicker at some point. But outside of Roman Wilson and the TE Loveland, I'm not that concerned about any of their other receiving options.

    If you go through the top end of the talent and compare/contrast whether we're talking about Day 1 or Day 1 + Day 2 NFL picks in this draft, UW's definitely winning that. Because of the brand, the Michigan players have a higher perception to them. But in terms of quality, the balance of the high end quality sits with Washington.

    This just feels like a great matchup for UW ...

    UW - 31
    Michigan - 24

    Teq, curious what you'd say specifically about the talking points of Joe Klatt's segment where he comes to the opposite conclusion?
    Link/Source?
  • TequillaTequilla Member Posts: 19,886
    Generally speaking regarding pace ...

    UW has generally played a game in the 1st half where the possessions are decent and we tend to score at a relatively high rate

    It is in the 2nd half where we tend to play much more situationally and are willing to run the clock ... given that Michigan will run the clock as well it's definitely possible that if we can get up early there's going to be opportunity to really limit 2nd half possessions
  • Kingdome_UrinalsKingdome_Urinals Member Posts: 2,751
    The new talking point is that Michigan is "specifically built" to stop the Ohio St. offense, and by extension the UW offense.

    Because Michigan has beaten Ohio St. in 2021, 2022, and 2023 they will beat UW.

    I just think Penix is a better passer and competitor than Stroud and the Ohio St. guys.
  • AtomicDawgAtomicDawg Member Posts: 7,093 Standard Supporter
    haie said:

    The more time passes the more confident I am that Michigan is designed well to stop truck stop run-and-punt teams and that the only teams that can stop UW passing attack got eliminated in Vegas and Pasadena.

    If healthy nobody is stopping this offense. I guess penix could have an off game. But nobody can cover these guys or stop them from winning jump balls.
  • TequillaTequilla Member Posts: 19,886

    The new talking point is that Michigan is "specifically built" to stop the Ohio St. offense, and by extension the UW offense.

    Because Michigan has beaten Ohio St. in 2021, 2022, and 2023 they will beat UW.

    I just think Penix is a better passer and competitor than Stroud and the Ohio St. guys.

    It's an interesting flex because in 2021 Stroud threw for almost 400 yards and they scored 27 points. In 2022 it was 349 yards and 23 points.

    My recollection in watching the games in 2021 and 2022 in particular was that Michigan absolutely bullied them at the LOS on both sides of the ball and were by far the better 2nd half team in both games.

    Michigan hasn't stopped Ohio St as much as they've perhaps slowed them versus their norms.

    The difference has been that Ohio St doesn't have answers for Michigan offensively and at the LOS
  • RoadTripRoadTrip Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 7,822 Founders Club
    AEB said:

    I cant stop thinking about this game. So excited. Listening to every pod, reading every article…especially those written by less technically gifted writers. I have two thoughts to share on our defense going into Monday.

    First, people are conflating our UT defensive performance and strategy with that of our expected Michigan performance. While our defense is good not great, my view was our plan for UT was to contain the passing game… not to be beat by UT throwing. We made trade-offs and were willing to let Texas beat us running if they could. They couldn’t.

    Which leads to the second thought: Michigan can’t beat us with their pass. Therefore, in first and second downs, our D could look more like a 5-2 with one extra big body like Tuitele/Bandes playing alongside Letuligasenoa and Ale with Trice and ZTF on the ends. We’ve got a decade of Harbaugh tape pushing our shit in, and this site specifically shat all over Kwats defensive strategy in those games - 2 DTs. Unlikely Morrell makes the same mistake.

    I think the comp game is Oregon. Oregon team was really good. Nix was a dynamic QB but challenged in the vertical passing game. Oregon ran the ball well. In the CCG, we stoned them unexpectedly in the run game. I think this is similar with a less threatening offense particularly at WRs.

    UW wins rather easily, say 34-17.

    ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
    FUCKING ALL OF THIS
  • WoolleyDoogWoolleyDoog Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 3,614 Swaye's Wigwam
    HFNY said:

    What's Chinteresting is that Dillon Johnson has more yards and fewer carries than Corum. Corum has the 25 TDs that get all of the headlines.

    I am not a Stats guy over everything else and am not saying Corum sucks (because he clearly doesn't).....but take a look at his game log. Their best OL (Zak Zinter) had a bad leg break against Ohio State but even before then, Corum's YPC weren't amazing. He gashed ECU, Bowling Green, and Minnesota and averaged 5.6 ypc against Penn State yet his numbers against the best teams aren't that great. I'm not saying UW's Run D is elite or even very good but it is good enough when it matters.

    Lastly, I'd argue that UW has faced better RBs than Corum....principally in Bucky Irving and one could probably argue that the Oregon State RB (Martinez) is better as well. Heck, even the Texas combo of CJ Baxter and Jaydon Blue put some fear in me:

    https://espn.com/college-football/player/gamelog/_/id/4429096/blake-corum

    I was legit startled seeing Corum and the #2 back's YPC, plus throw in McCarthy. With Zinter out their two best OL might be a Stanford grad transfer and an ASU guy I remember both being above average but not spectacular in the conference. The ASU guy put a gnarly hit on ZTF in 2021. Not sure any of this means anything but don't think it's bad.
  • RoadTripRoadTrip Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 7,822 Founders Club

    AEB said:

    I cant stop thinking about this game. So excited. Listening to every pod, reading every article…especially those written by less technically gifted writers. I have two thoughts to share on our defense going into Monday.

    First, people are conflating our UT defensive performance and strategy with that of our expected Michigan performance. While our defense is good not great, my view was our plan for UT was to contain the passing game… not to be beat by UT throwing. We made trade-offs and were willing to let Texas beat us running if they could. They couldn’t.

    Which leads to the second thought: Michigan can’t beat us with their pass. Therefore, in first and second downs, our D could look more like a 5-2 with one extra big body like Tuitele/Bandes playing alongside Letuligasenoa and Ale with Trice and ZTF on the ends. We’ve got a decade of Harbaugh tape pushing our shit in, and this site specifically shat all over Kwats defensive strategy in those games - 2 DTs. Unlikely Morrell makes the same mistake.

    I think the comp game is Oregon. Oregon team was really good. Nix was a dynamic QB but challenged in the vertical passing game. Oregon ran the ball well. In the CCG, we stoned them unexpectedly in the run game. I think this is similar with a less threatening offense particularly at WRs.

    UW wins rather easily, say 34-17.

    Yup.

    Oregon might actually be the second best team in the country
    It would have been interesting to see them play a single good team outside of Washington. They blew the doors off the teams we? struggled against. I really can't figure out why this team didn't dominate more this year. If I had to explain it I guess the defense needed 1 more dominate DL, a more athletic LB (no offense to Bruener as he was solid but not dominate), 2 more shut down DBs and a dominate safety. The D was serviceable and bailed the O out when it inexplicably struggled but had it been dominate, UW would have cruised to this NC.
  • RoadTripRoadTrip Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 7,822 Founders Club
    HFNY said:

    Michigan's front 7 will be the best UW has played all year. CB Will Johnson and FS Rod Moore are good too. SS Makari Page is listed at 6'4" and 208 lbs but doesn't seem to make many impact plays.

    CB Josh Wallace appears to be the guy to target in terms of who he is covering.

    Their NB makes a ton of plays but is only 5'10" 182 lbs: https://mgoblue.com/sports/football/roster/mike-sainristil/24406

    Other than Iowa and their putrid offense, Michigan's last few games have been decided by 7 to 9 points. They lost their best OL later in the season so that didn't help.

    Probably the best film to watch is Michigan's Ohio State game. UW has just as talented (if not more talented) WRs than Ohio State. Very deep too. Of course the WR corp has Penix and the OL working to get the ball to them rather than McCord and lesser OL.

    I'm not too worried about Michigan's offense. They will try to grind and run McCarthy more (maybe some RPO) but the D stiffens when it needs to and if Muhammad is healthy enough, he'll mostly lock down Roman Wilson. Elijah Jackson matches up pretty well with WR Cornelius Johnson too.

    This is the 4th time I've heard this about a team UW was about to play and the Big10 had ZERO offense this year. Not worried about UW offense.
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