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Two Way Too Early Thoughts on Michigan Game
I cant stop thinking about this game. So excited. Listening to every pod, reading every article…especially those written by less technically gifted writers. I have two thoughts to share on our defense going into Monday.
First, people are conflating our UT defensive performance and strategy with that of our expected Michigan performance. While our defense is good not great, my view was our plan for UT was to contain the passing game… not to be beat by UT throwing. We made trade-offs and were willing to let Texas beat us running if they could. They couldn’t.
Which leads to the second thought: Michigan can’t beat us with their pass. Therefore, in first and second downs, our D could look more like a 5-2 with one extra big body like Tuitele/Bandes playing alongside Letuligasenoa and Ale with Trice and ZTF on the ends. We’ve got a decade of Harbaugh tape pushing our shit in, and this site specifically shat all over Kwats defensive strategy in those games - 2 DTs. Unlikely Morrell makes the same mistake.
I think the comp game is Oregon. Oregon team was really good. Nix was a dynamic QB but challenged in the vertical passing game. Oregon ran the ball well. In the CCG, we stoned them unexpectedly in the run game. I think this is similar with a less threatening offense particularly at WRs.
UW wins rather easily, say 34-17.
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Comments
Oregon might actually be the second best team in the country
Look for a few more Penix runs
That's exactly what they are NOT expecting us to do
UT looked like a collection of athletes with no strong personalities or competitive edge.
Oregon is at least spirited IMO. Perhaps rooted in a little bit of substance?
There was some minor reassessment of UW after duckrape 2. A little more respect given to Penix after Sugar Bowl which started about 9PM and most people in the NY media's timezone didn't stay up to see.
But most pundits still repeat the same tropes. None of which are founded in current reality. At best they reflect a 4 week period after duckrape 1, which was when we first got on the national radar, and UW was banged up and had a plague of flu. It was then that the narratives got formed.
A week of healing and the difference between Apple Cup UW and duckrape 2 UW was incredible.
Taking the most recent (and thus most valid) sample size of longhornrape 2 and duckrape 2 (which is actually duckrape 3 now that I think about it), we are in fact an entirely different team than what's still being depicted.
Then you have metrics (polling) which give some appearance of certainty regarding future performance.
Then you have bought and paid for pundits who plug the company line.
TITT, EWIWBI....
CB Josh Wallace appears to be the guy to target in terms of who he is covering.
Their NB makes a ton of plays but is only 5'10" 182 lbs: https://mgoblue.com/sports/football/roster/mike-sainristil/24406
Other than Iowa and their putrid offense, Michigan's last few games have been decided by 7 to 9 points. They lost their best OL later in the season so that didn't help.
Probably the best film to watch is Michigan's Ohio State game. UW has just as talented (if not more talented) WRs than Ohio State. Very deep too. Of course the WR corp has Penix and the OL working to get the ball to them rather than McCord and lesser OL.
I'm not too worried about Michigan's offense. They will try to grind and run McCarthy more (maybe some RPO) but the D stiffens when it needs to and if Muhammad is healthy enough, he'll mostly lock down Roman Wilson. Elijah Jackson matches up pretty well with WR Cornelius Johnson too.