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CFP Selection Committee’s worst nightmare coming true!

135

Comments

  • DerekJohnsonDerekJohnson Administrator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 63,575 Founders Club

    I have a hard time envisioning that Georgia will be left out. But if they are included get ready for lawfare

    We have 5 Power 5 Champions with an equal or greater record than UGA. And of these 6 teams, UGA has the lowest SOR

    UGA is losing 3 tie-breakers here.

    They are #6 at best
    Yes you're probably right and nobody here is going to feel sorry for them. But it's tough to be #1 most of the year and a 3-point loss to mighty Alabama is your only blemish and you're left out in the cold.
  • animateanimate Member Posts: 4,240
    FSU has to be in IMO.
  • KrunkJuiceKrunkJuice Member Posts: 2,061

    I have a hard time envisioning that Georgia will be left out. But if they are included get ready for lawfare

    We have 5 Power 5 Champions with an equal or greater record than UGA. And of these 6 teams, UGA has the lowest SOR

    UGA is losing 3 tie-breakers here.

    They are #6 at best
    Yes you're probably right and nobody here is going to feel sorry for them. But it's tough to be #1 most of the year and a 3-point loss to mighty Alabama is your only blemish and you're left out in the cold.
    They said no team that has been ranked #1 at any point in the playoff rankings has ever been left out. They also said no team rated 6 or lower has made the jump in. I think Texas and Bama are 7 and 8.
  • LaZorisLaZoris Member Posts: 1,726 Standard Supporter
    edited December 2023
    Off Shore Odds as of Sunday Morning 12:30am:

    Football - NCAA Football Futures:


    Alabama - To Make the Playoffs
    Yes-110
    No-120

    Florida State - To Make the Playoffs
    Yes-350
    No+225

    Georgia - To Make the Playoffs
    Yes+1100
    No-5000

    Texas - To Make the Playoffs
    Yes-300
    No+220

    2023-2024 NCAA Championship Winner
    12/15/23

    NCAA Champion
    Michigan (#1)+110
    Texas (#4)+325
    Alabama (#5)+500
    Washington (#2)+500
    Florida State (#3)+1200
    Georgia (#6)+3300

    2023-2024 NCAA Championship Winner
    12/15/23

    NCAA Champion Michigan
    Michigan+110
    Field-150
  • whlinderwhlinder Member Posts: 4,809 Standard Supporter
    Unprecedented group of teams to work with. The case for Bama is laid out by Stewart Mandel this morning: more top 25 wins than Texas/FSU and he thinks following the process the committee goes through that Bama will make it all the way to 3. His 4 were Michigan, UW, Bama, FSU, forcing us to take on Bama in the Sugar.

    Which is bullshit. We better get FSU or the Rose Bowl. Having to play Texas or Bama in the Sugar would be horseshit.

    What we need to hope for:
    SMU does not make the top 25 to replace Tulane and instead Utah comes back in. Another top 25 win for us.
    Oregon ends up no worse than 8 with tOSU at 7. Ideally these are flipped, not punishing Oregon for playing an extra game since they were ahead of tOSU last week.
    That’s enough to push us over Michigan and into the Rose. I hope.

    Ideal standings:
    1 UW
    2 Mich
    3 Texas
    4 FSU

    More likely:
    1 UW
    2 Mich
    3 Bama
    4 FSU

    Meh but ok:
    1 Mich
    2 UW
    3 FSU
    4 Texas

    Bullshit unless we’re playing in the Rose
    1 Mich
    2 UW
    3 Bama
    4 FSU
  • CFetters_Nacho_LoverCFetters_Nacho_Lover Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 30,419 Founders Club

    The committee doesn't just ask the #1 seed what bowl they want.

    They try to minimize travel and maximize revenues, both TV and ticket sales.

    They aren't going to play criss cross apple sauce geographically just because Harbaugh would like it.



    Thank you!
  • CFetters_Nacho_LoverCFetters_Nacho_Lover Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 30,419 Founders Club

    I have a hard time envisioning that Georgia will be left out. But if they are included get ready for lawfare

    We have 5 Power 5 Champions with an equal or greater record than UGA. And of these 6 teams, UGA has the lowest SOR

    UGA is losing 3 tie-breakers here.

    They are #6 at best
    Yes you're probably right and nobody here is going to feel sorry for them. But it's tough to be #1 most of the year and a 3-point loss to mighty Alabama is your only blemish and you're left out in the cold.
    They said no team that has been ranked #1 at any point in the playoff rankings has ever been left out. They also said no team rated 6 or lower has made the jump in. I think Texas and Bama are 7 and 8.
    Wasn’t tOSU ranked number 1 for a week? They’re already out. Unprecedented but it could happen to 2 teams this year if tOSU was ranked at #1 at some point.
  • CFetters_Nacho_LoverCFetters_Nacho_Lover Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 30,419 Founders Club

    Old man thought of the morning, bowls -n- polls would nail this one, Washington & Michigan in Rose Bowl for the natty.

    The plus 1 model would’ve been the best. Take the 2 highest ranked teams after the traditional bowls and let them play.
  • 1to392831weretaken1to392831weretaken Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 7,631 Swaye's Wigwam

    I have a hard time envisioning that Georgia will be left out. But if they are included get ready for lawfare

    We have 5 Power 5 Champions with an equal or greater record than UGA. And of these 6 teams, UGA has the lowest SOR

    UGA is losing 3 tie-breakers here.

    They are #6 at best #2 at worst
    --@SECDAWG

  • CFetters_Nacho_LoverCFetters_Nacho_Lover Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 30,419 Founders Club

    The committee doesn't just ask the #1 seed what bowl they want.

    They try to minimize travel and maximize revenues, both TV and ticket sales.

    They aren't going to play criss cross apple sauce geographically just because Harbaugh would like it.



    Thank you!
    Here’s the proof on this:

  • ntxduckntxduck Member Posts: 5,729
    ntxduck said:

    Michigan is the 1. They’ll pick the rose because they’ll be playing fsu or Bama (most likely Bama) and will not want to play either in NO.

    UW will be the 2 and play Sark in the sugar bowl.

    This is locked in now per the odds. Only uncertainty is Bama/fsu at 4. But looks like they’re gonna tell fsu to kick rocks
  • UW_Doog_BotUW_Doog_Bot Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 15,828 Swaye's Wigwam
    ntxduck said:

    ntxduck said:

    Michigan is the 1. They’ll pick the rose because they’ll be playing fsu or Bama (most likely Bama) and will not want to play either in NO.

    UW will be the 2 and play Sark in the sugar bowl.

    This is locked in now per the odds. Only uncertainty is Bama/fsu at 4. But looks like they’re gonna tell fsu to kick rocks
    I'm hearing the odds mean Oregon won.
  • ntxduckntxduck Member Posts: 5,729

    ntxduck said:

    ntxduck said:

    Michigan is the 1. They’ll pick the rose because they’ll be playing fsu or Bama (most likely Bama) and will not want to play either in NO.

    UW will be the 2 and play Sark in the sugar bowl.

    This is locked in now per the odds. Only uncertainty is Bama/fsu at 4. But looks like they’re gonna tell fsu to kick rocks
    I'm hearing the odds mean Oregon won.
    Odds on events that are selected by committees (ncaa bubble, cfp playoff) are a lot more spot on. Because there are self-important people in the room leaking info. Not comparable to game odds.
  • UW_Doog_BotUW_Doog_Bot Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 15,828 Swaye's Wigwam
    ntxduck said:

    ntxduck said:

    ntxduck said:

    Michigan is the 1. They’ll pick the rose because they’ll be playing fsu or Bama (most likely Bama) and will not want to play either in NO.

    UW will be the 2 and play Sark in the sugar bowl.

    This is locked in now per the odds. Only uncertainty is Bama/fsu at 4. But looks like they’re gonna tell fsu to kick rocks
    I'm hearing the odds mean Oregon won.
    Odds on events that are selected by committees (ncaa bubble, cfp playoff) are a lot more spot on. Because there are self-important people in the room leaking info. Not comparable to game odds.
    Or people that leak info to try and influence outcomes.
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