Oregon wins 75% of the time

JoeEDangerously

They win this game that has yet to be played… ever. The only one of its kind. Never done before. They win this game 75% of the time. Incredible foreshadowing.

JoeEDangerously

They have allegedly played this game already at least four times, and the Oregon ducks have won at least three of them. Amazing!

RaceBannon

Bama had a .01 win probability on 4th and goal from the 31

WoolleyDoog

Whatever bs equation this thing is has hated Washington and loved Oregon. I'm pretty sure they had Oregon's percentage really high going into the last game.

NoWarningJustDawg

If UW had any honor they’d send a rep down to Eugene & formally forfeit the game. If it’s truly Covid, then they can’t play next week for the conference championship anyway

But what can you expect from a program that is everything that is wrong about college football.

They're fighting for clicks. We're fighting for wins.

Yadda yadda

DoogerMcFarland

WoolleyDoog said:

Whatever bs equation this thing is has hated Washington and loved Oregon. I'm pretty sure they had Oregon's percentage really high going into the last game.

I don't know if it's calculated the same way once the game starts, but it looks like after the opening kickoff, Oregon had a 53.6% win probability which peaked late in the fourth at 96.6%.

YellowSnow

WoolleyDoog said:

Whatever bs equation this thing is has hated Washington and loved Oregon. I'm pretty sure they had Oregon's percentage really high going into the last game.

It was like 57% Oregon probability for the last game.

I gotta tell you though - I don't know that 75% is that far off the mark. This one doesn't feel like a coin flip to me and the rational side of my brain keeps saying it's exceedingly difficult to beat a tough Oregon squad 3 times in a row.

LaZoris

WoolleyDoog said:

Whatever bs equation this thing is has hated Washington and loved Oregon. I'm pretty sure they had Oregon's percentage really high going into the last game.

UW was favored last game but that faggy predictor still had oregon in the 60-70 percentile in OCT.

Alexis

In order for Oregon to win this game, something will have to happen that hasn't happened under these two coaches before.

Either Lanning, and Oregon win a close, hard fought, tight game against a team that is not Texas Tech, which I don't think has really ever happened.

Or, Deboner has to get blown out, which has definitely never happened here.

So. EWIWBI.

whatshouldicareabout

WoolleyDoog said:

Whatever bs equation this thing is has hated Washington and loved Oregon. I'm pretty sure they had Oregon's percentage really high going into the last game.

FPI has Ohio State as the best team in the country and Penn State 4th. 7-5 TAMU is equal to 12-0 UW.

FPI is twash as fuck

bisonduck

whatshouldicareabout said:

WoolleyDoog said:

Whatever bs equation this thing is has hated Washington and loved Oregon. I'm pretty sure they had Oregon's percentage really high going into the last game.

FPI has Ohio State as the best team in the country and Penn State 4th. 7-5 TAMU is equal to 12-0 UW.

FPI is twash as fuck

Yet people love their strength of record metric. It should just be another data point of many.

PostGameOrangeSlices

WoolleyDoog said:

Whatever bs equation this thing is has hated Washington and loved Oregon. I'm pretty sure they had Oregon's percentage really high going into the last game.

FPI is always impressed by stars

Swaye

Blo Dix has a very punchable face

DucksFC

I'm glad to know the game has already been played and I can start booking my tickets for Pasadena. Thanks for showing up, guysm!

whatshouldicareabout

bisonduck said:

whatshouldicareabout said:

WoolleyDoog said:

Whatever bs equation this thing is has hated Washington and loved Oregon. I'm pretty sure they had Oregon's percentage really high going into the last game.

FPI has Ohio State as the best team in the country and Penn State 4th. 7-5 TAMU is equal to 12-0 UW.

FPI is twash as fuck

Yet people love their strength of record metric. It should just be another data point of many.

FPI is used for theoretical games and betting

SOR is used by the committee for ranking teams

They are not the same

PurpleJ

Swaye said:

Blo Dix has a very punchable face

Would fit in well in the Hitler Youth. Pretty sure I saw him punch a pro-Israel protester last week!

GrundleStiltzkin

Swaye said:

Blo Dix has a very punchable face

dannarc

YellowSnow said:

WoolleyDoog said:

Whatever bs equation this thing is has hated Washington and loved Oregon. I'm pretty sure they had Oregon's percentage really high going into the last game.

It was like 57% Oregon probability for the last game.

I gotta tell you though - I don't know that 75% is that far off the mark. This one doesn't feel like a coin flip to me and the rational side of my brain keeps saying it's exceedingly difficult to beat a tough Oregon squad 3 times in a row.

You are struggling with reality, Boss. Turn that loser PTSD off for a minute and smoke some more weed, it will help you talk the appropriate amount of shit.

My half-brain says we have won 19 in a row, beat them twice in a row with the same squad and are poised to do it a third time. DeBoner has got his reads down against OU and how to win big games. Defense has tightened up, Bruener will have a game Friday, Penix will be in the zone...This is a STATEMENT gayme. Deal with it!!!!1!

bisonduck

whatshouldicareabout said:

bisonduck said:

whatshouldicareabout said:

WoolleyDoog said:

Whatever bs equation this thing is has hated Washington and loved Oregon. I'm pretty sure they had Oregon's percentage really high going into the last game.

FPI has Ohio State as the best team in the country and Penn State 4th. 7-5 TAMU is equal to 12-0 UW.

FPI is twash as fuck

Yet people love their strength of record metric. It should just be another data point of many.

FPI is used for theoretical games and betting

SOR is used by the committee for ranking teams

They are not the same

You really think they're using that specific metric? FPI is predictive and SOR is static look at resume. However, the SOR and committee rankings are not correlated exactly. ESPN's SOR is how the average top 25 team would fair against the same schedule.

bisonduck

PurpleJ said:

Swaye said:

Blo Dix has a very punchable face

Would fit in well in the Hitler Youth. Pretty sure I saw him punch a pro-Israel protester last week!

I heard Isreal and the IDF is new the Hitler. Everyone is Hitler really.

YellowSnow

dannarc said:

YellowSnow said:

WoolleyDoog said:

Whatever bs equation this thing is has hated Washington and loved Oregon. I'm pretty sure they had Oregon's percentage really high going into the last game.

It was like 57% Oregon probability for the last game.

I gotta tell you though - I don't know that 75% is that far off the mark. This one doesn't feel like a coin flip to me and the rational side of my brain keeps saying it's exceedingly difficult to beat a tough Oregon squad 3 times in a row.

You are struggling with reality, Boss. Turn that loser PTSD off for a minute and smoke some more weed, it will help you talk the appropriate amount of shit.

My half-brain says we have won 19 in a row, beat them twice in a row with the same squad and are poised to do it a third time. DeBoner has got his reads down against OU and how to win big games. Defense has tightened up, Bruener will have a game Friday, Penix will be in the zone...This is a STATEMENT gayme. Deal with it!!!!1!

I'm severely torn between the smoke weed and talk shit side of my brain and the objective side of my brain.