The Ms have a good core but they want to wait for someone or a couple of someones, like Kelenic for example, to really bust out and be the big add that puts it over the top. That would be amazing but it's the least likely way.
Their pitching staff has had two in house starters really bust out (Gilbert, Kirby) and they spent money on two guys (Ray, Castillo) to fill it out. They've been remarkably unwilling to add one good position player or a combo of two slightly cheaper ones at a similar cost to what they paid for pitching. I didn't want them to shell out $300mil for Trea Turner, but they should be willing to add $200mil over 5 years for two guys.
Ohtani only makes sense if you can get him and also make a significant upgrade at least one other position. This lineup needs another JP at a minimum...high on base, low strikeouts, .800 ops... plus Ohtani or it needs 2-3 significantly higher ops guys in place of France, Suarez and Teoscar.
If Kelenic can help bring a guy or two like that then I'm fine with moving him. If he can't then he's a fine player and he can stay for my part, but hoping for him to be something he hasn't yet been is dumb. Hope is not a strategy. Plus he's a high K% guy at his best and doesn't help raise the team OBP%. They need someone else.
That is the kit-and-kaboodle...The baseball business, summed up. You are evaluating players based on what you think they can be , not based on who they are. They are ALL going to suck, over periods of time. Julio sucked, Cal sucked, a lot of people wanted JP out of here last year. I get what you are saying, and refer back to the Adam Jones / Adrian Belte / Varitek HOF...no one knows when to fish or cut bait, and the M's history is to cut bait at the honey hole...
The point is that you can afford to keep guys like Kelenic based on what you think they can be, but putting too many eggs in that basket is a strategy that leads to more losing most of the time. Yes anyone can suck for any given time frame, but betting on guys who have realized their potential at some point gives you better odds of it working out than someone who hasn't done it yet but you think/hope is capable.
And, again, Kelenic doesn't project to be the guy they're really missing. High K guys with power are not hard to find (even within their org) and that's what he is as a hitter.
Agree. They are positioned to go with him for now. If he continues to develop at a reasonable rate, he is a great complimentary piece going forward. DH/1B/pen arms…
The Ms have a good core but they want to wait for someone or a couple of someones, like Kelenic for example, to really bust out and be the big add that puts it over the top. That would be amazing but it's the least likely way.
Their pitching staff has had two in house starters really bust out (Gilbert, Kirby) and they spent money on two guys (Ray, Castillo) to fill it out. They've been remarkably unwilling to add one good position player or a combo of two slightly cheaper ones at a similar cost to what they paid for pitching. I didn't want them to shell out $300mil for Trea Turner, but they should be willing to add $200mil over 5 years for two guys.
Ohtani only makes sense if you can get him and also make a significant upgrade at least one other position. This lineup needs another JP at a minimum...high on base, low strikeouts, .800 ops... plus Ohtani or it needs 2-3 significantly higher ops guys in place of France, Suarez and Teoscar.
If Kelenic can help bring a guy or two like that then I'm fine with moving him. If he can't then he's a fine player and he can stay for my part, but hoping for him to be something he hasn't yet been is dumb. Hope is not a strategy. Plus he's a high K% guy at his best and doesn't help raise the team OBP%. They need someone else.
That is the kit-and-kaboodle...The baseball business, summed up. You are evaluating players based on what you think they can be , not based on who they are. They are ALL going to suck, over periods of time. Julio sucked, Cal sucked, a lot of people wanted JP out of here last year. I get what you are saying, and refer back to the Adam Jones / Adrian Belte / Varitek HOF...no one knows when to fish or cut bait, and the M's history is to cut bait at the honey hole...
The point is that you can afford to keep guys like Kelenic based on what you think they can be, but putting too many eggs in that basket is a strategy that leads to more losing most of the time. Yes anyone can suck for any given time frame, but betting on guys who have realized their potential at some point gives you better odds of it working out than someone who hasn't done it yet but you think/hope is capable.
And, again, Kelenic doesn't project to be the guy they're really missing. High K guys with power are not hard to find (even within their org) and that's what he is as a hitter.
Agree. They are positioned to go with him for now. If he continues to develop at a reasonable rate, he is a great complimentary piece going forward. DH/1B/pen arms…
Exactly. You and I have both posted the same thing. You specified lefty pen arm too which I also agree with.
If 2023 Kelenic is your 7th best hitter you've got something special going. If you're counting on him hitting .275 with 25 homers and a .350 OBP, then you're just throwing a hail Mary.
I'm going to try to keep this as bullet pointed as possible, but definitely would be interested in going in deeper on any number of items
Big picture
* The Mariners were Top 10 in both OPS+ and ERA+ ... it's not a BROKEN roster * The Organization needs to determine what it's priorities are ... if they are content with profits then just continue the status quo ... if they want to actually win they need to do more * What are they prepared to do?
Offense
* OPS+ of 106 ... of the Top 11 team in OPS+ 9 made the Playoffs ... only Seattle and San Diego didn't * As others have noted, the K's are a fundamental problem with this offense as they had the 2nd most K's in MLB at 1,603 (just under 10 per game) ... this is over 200 K's higher than the league average of 1,395 * You could perhaps sell me on the K's if the added benefit of working the count resulted in a greater than average walk rate ... but it doesn't as the Mariners were just over league average at drawing walks (548 vs league average of 527) * Julio is just scratching the surface of his potential and will almost assuredly finish Top 3 to Top 5 in MVP ... but there's still MASSIVE room for improvement * Julio had 175 K's this year and only 47 walks ... his K rate was SLIGHTLY BETTER this year and his BB rate was SLIGHTLY WORSE ... that is not growth * Any gains that Julio has made though is offset when looking at his OPS and OPS+ number that are both down in Year 2 ... to be blunt, Julio must gain a better command of the strike zone to unlock the full breadth of his potential as without it pitchers will just continue to expand the zone on him * Could definitely argue that JP Crawford was the best offensive player for the Mariners as not only did he have the highest OPS+ on the club, but he also led the league in walks ... I'm not sure that I would expect a repeat of this year with a .380 OBP but being in the .350-.360 range is definitely reasonable ... he's definitely established that he can hit at the top of the order * Raleigh's attention is going to be more to his comments than his season ... I'm not saying that I'd want to move on from Cal but his HR totals really hides his offensive limitations ... you simply can't have a guy that hits .232 with a .306 OBP hitting in a high leverage spot in your lineup ... that needs to be a bottom half of your lineup hitter (7th or 8th to be honest) * Kelenic takes way too much crap as someone that just played their age 23 season ... he was an above league average hitter in terms of OPS+ and while there's a mixed bag on this in terms of his numbers the eye test told me that the quality of his ABs continues to improve ... he'll probably reach the balance of his potential with another organization but the Mariners can't afford to replace what he brings to the table as a pre-arbitration player and need to hope that he break out a bit in the next year or two to maximize when they inevitably trade him * Being league average at both 1B and 3B is flat out criminal ... France had a down year but as an All-Star last year I would imagine that his arbitration number still carries some heft ... not sure that you can non-tender him but it's a tough bet to assume that he bounces back because this year mirrored his 2nd half last year. As for Suarez, his defense and locker room presence isn't something to gloss over ... but you can't have a player K'ing 214 times in the 3rd or 4th spot in your lineup * I think you have to tender Teoscar but I'm not really sure that I want him back ... need to cut the K's in the lineup and when you factor in mediocre defense at best and not really much else it's not a value positive contract IMO * The bench is super weak ... it needs to be upgraded all over (it's a theme of the roster) * Overall, the roster needs a lot more speed ... it's criminal with the rule changes that have been made to not take more advantage of having speed ... so much of the speed was in the form of utility/bench type of player ... this has to be a focus
Starting Pitching
* Castillo is obviously an ace and should finish Top 3 in Cy Young voting ... there's really nothing to discuss here * For as good as Castillo was, Kirby and Gilbert weren't really that far behind him ... there are 3 aces on the roster * Miller and Woo both showed themselves well but both have leaps that they need to make to get close to the level of the above 3 ... I'd be open to moving either of them if needed to improve the roster * I wouldn't expect Robbie Ray to be a factor as a starter next year ... he could be a big lift in the pen if things work out * Marco is the definition of a player that has a value on a team trying to be good but not really a place on a team trying to win ... all being equal he takes the ball and eats innings ... but you're not planning on putting him on a postseason roster so what value does he really have when you have a roster trying to get a title? * I'd like to better understand Hancock's shoulder injury ... I thought he really turned a corner this year and there could be some big things ahead ... but if I'm not sold on the shoulder perhaps a chance to sell before the shoulder turns into a lemon?
Relief Pitching
* Munoz has the stuff to be an elite closer ... he had some bad luck at times but his biggest area of improvement is just getting tighter with his control and the ability to throw strikes early in counts to get ahead * In the end Brash had a very solid year ... he's a little frustrating to me in that he tends to get hit harder than he should with his stuff ... like Munoz, tightening some things up with his control will serve him well * I'm not sold on Topa going forward ... I think that they got a strong year out of him but I'm not sure that I'd bet on a repeat year * Everybody else in the pen screams of JAGs * If the Mariners want to be competitive in October next year, they likely need to add 2 arms there (3 if you factor in Ray here)
What I Would Do
* Move on from France and upgrade at 1B - too big of an opportunity to upgrade * Start the year with a Rojas/Moore platoon with the hope that Bliss can fit in by midseason ... potentially look at a deadline acquisition if/as needed ... I'd be hesitant to commit anything too long here as I feel like Cole Young could be ready by some point in 2025 * Look at any opportunities to upgrade from Suarez but be prepared for him to return * Allow Kelenic to play effectively every day and stop yanking him around as a platoon player * Add a RF option that upgrades some of the areas that move away from the weak links that the Mariners had ... a Mark Canha type would be very solid here if addressing via FA * DH was a complete zero of a position ... have to do substantially better than Mike Ford * I'd look at trading at least one of my young pitchers to upgrade for a bat ... I wouldn't touch Kirby or Gilbert at this point * Move Marco at all costs * I'd add at least 2 pen arms ... a couple of names that could be good adds in the middle relief range would be Jose Alvarado and Adam Ottavino * Recommend that the salaries for Robbie Ray and Evan White are viewed as sunk costs and that including them as part of the overall payroll number is going to materially limit the ceiling of this club/roster
The biggest thing that really dictates everything is what the Mariners payroll is set at ... without jumping the payroll up to $180M it will be difficult to materially upgrade the roster at the level required to be competitive at the top levels
Comments
If 2023 Kelenic is your 7th best hitter you've got something special going. If you're counting on him hitting .275 with 25 homers and a .350 OBP, then you're just throwing a hail Mary.
Big picture
* The Mariners were Top 10 in both OPS+ and ERA+ ... it's not a BROKEN roster
* The Organization needs to determine what it's priorities are ... if they are content with profits then just continue the status quo ... if they want to actually win they need to do more
* What are they prepared to do?
Offense
* OPS+ of 106 ... of the Top 11 team in OPS+ 9 made the Playoffs ... only Seattle and San Diego didn't
* As others have noted, the K's are a fundamental problem with this offense as they had the 2nd most K's in MLB at 1,603 (just under 10 per game) ... this is over 200 K's higher than the league average of 1,395
* You could perhaps sell me on the K's if the added benefit of working the count resulted in a greater than average walk rate ... but it doesn't as the Mariners were just over league average at drawing walks (548 vs league average of 527)
* Julio is just scratching the surface of his potential and will almost assuredly finish Top 3 to Top 5 in MVP ... but there's still MASSIVE room for improvement
* Julio had 175 K's this year and only 47 walks ... his K rate was SLIGHTLY BETTER this year and his BB rate was SLIGHTLY WORSE ... that is not growth
* Any gains that Julio has made though is offset when looking at his OPS and OPS+ number that are both down in Year 2 ... to be blunt, Julio must gain a better command of the strike zone to unlock the full breadth of his potential as without it pitchers will just continue to expand the zone on him
* Could definitely argue that JP Crawford was the best offensive player for the Mariners as not only did he have the highest OPS+ on the club, but he also led the league in walks ... I'm not sure that I would expect a repeat of this year with a .380 OBP but being in the .350-.360 range is definitely reasonable ... he's definitely established that he can hit at the top of the order
* Raleigh's attention is going to be more to his comments than his season ... I'm not saying that I'd want to move on from Cal but his HR totals really hides his offensive limitations ... you simply can't have a guy that hits .232 with a .306 OBP hitting in a high leverage spot in your lineup ... that needs to be a bottom half of your lineup hitter (7th or 8th to be honest)
* Kelenic takes way too much crap as someone that just played their age 23 season ... he was an above league average hitter in terms of OPS+ and while there's a mixed bag on this in terms of his numbers the eye test told me that the quality of his ABs continues to improve ... he'll probably reach the balance of his potential with another organization but the Mariners can't afford to replace what he brings to the table as a pre-arbitration player and need to hope that he break out a bit in the next year or two to maximize when they inevitably trade him
* Being league average at both 1B and 3B is flat out criminal ... France had a down year but as an All-Star last year I would imagine that his arbitration number still carries some heft ... not sure that you can non-tender him but it's a tough bet to assume that he bounces back because this year mirrored his 2nd half last year. As for Suarez, his defense and locker room presence isn't something to gloss over ... but you can't have a player K'ing 214 times in the 3rd or 4th spot in your lineup
* I think you have to tender Teoscar but I'm not really sure that I want him back ... need to cut the K's in the lineup and when you factor in mediocre defense at best and not really much else it's not a value positive contract IMO
* The bench is super weak ... it needs to be upgraded all over (it's a theme of the roster)
* Overall, the roster needs a lot more speed ... it's criminal with the rule changes that have been made to not take more advantage of having speed ... so much of the speed was in the form of utility/bench type of player ... this has to be a focus
Starting Pitching
* Castillo is obviously an ace and should finish Top 3 in Cy Young voting ... there's really nothing to discuss here
* For as good as Castillo was, Kirby and Gilbert weren't really that far behind him ... there are 3 aces on the roster
* Miller and Woo both showed themselves well but both have leaps that they need to make to get close to the level of the above 3 ... I'd be open to moving either of them if needed to improve the roster
* I wouldn't expect Robbie Ray to be a factor as a starter next year ... he could be a big lift in the pen if things work out
* Marco is the definition of a player that has a value on a team trying to be good but not really a place on a team trying to win ... all being equal he takes the ball and eats innings ... but you're not planning on putting him on a postseason roster so what value does he really have when you have a roster trying to get a title?
* I'd like to better understand Hancock's shoulder injury ... I thought he really turned a corner this year and there could be some big things ahead ... but if I'm not sold on the shoulder perhaps a chance to sell before the shoulder turns into a lemon?
Relief Pitching
* Munoz has the stuff to be an elite closer ... he had some bad luck at times but his biggest area of improvement is just getting tighter with his control and the ability to throw strikes early in counts to get ahead
* In the end Brash had a very solid year ... he's a little frustrating to me in that he tends to get hit harder than he should with his stuff ... like Munoz, tightening some things up with his control will serve him well
* I'm not sold on Topa going forward ... I think that they got a strong year out of him but I'm not sure that I'd bet on a repeat year
* Everybody else in the pen screams of JAGs
* If the Mariners want to be competitive in October next year, they likely need to add 2 arms there (3 if you factor in Ray here)
What I Would Do
* Move on from France and upgrade at 1B - too big of an opportunity to upgrade
* Start the year with a Rojas/Moore platoon with the hope that Bliss can fit in by midseason ... potentially look at a deadline acquisition if/as needed ... I'd be hesitant to commit anything too long here as I feel like Cole Young could be ready by some point in 2025
* Look at any opportunities to upgrade from Suarez but be prepared for him to return
* Allow Kelenic to play effectively every day and stop yanking him around as a platoon player
* Add a RF option that upgrades some of the areas that move away from the weak links that the Mariners had ... a Mark Canha type would be very solid here if addressing via FA
* DH was a complete zero of a position ... have to do substantially better than Mike Ford
* I'd look at trading at least one of my young pitchers to upgrade for a bat ... I wouldn't touch Kirby or Gilbert at this point
* Move Marco at all costs
* I'd add at least 2 pen arms ... a couple of names that could be good adds in the middle relief range would be Jose Alvarado and Adam Ottavino
* Recommend that the salaries for Robbie Ray and Evan White are viewed as sunk costs and that including them as part of the overall payroll number is going to materially limit the ceiling of this club/roster
The biggest thing that really dictates everything is what the Mariners payroll is set at ... without jumping the payroll up to $180M it will be difficult to materially upgrade the roster at the level required to be competitive at the top levels