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Newsflash: the fade is a shitty play call

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  • Gladstone
    Gladstone Member Posts: 16,419
    This was more of a Sark thing than a JSFS thing, but I still found it interesting.
  • FremontTroll
    FremontTroll Member Posts: 4,744
    It is a less awful playcall on 1st or 2nd and goal because the odds of a turnover or negative play are very low. On 4th and goal or a 2 point conversion its the nut low.
  • Pitchfork51
    Pitchfork51 Member Posts: 27,662
    The fade into the endzone to a nkeal Harry type guy is the 2nd best play in football.

    The best is the qb sneak for half a yard.
  • Doogles
    Doogles Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 12,726 Founders Club
    edited July 2018
    Or you could be David Shaw and run it 13 times in a row to one of your freak 6'8" tight ends
  • RaceBannon
    RaceBannon Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 113,726 Founders Club
    Nothing like lobbing a 4th and goal fade into the grandstands
  • FremontTroll
    FremontTroll Member Posts: 4,744

    You idiots are only looking at one side of the equation... The fade route is a low percentage play for BOTH sides. I.e., it has low completion percentage for the offense, but it's also incredibly unlikely to be intercepted.

    It makes sense if you have a big WR who can go up and get it and you're worried about your QB throwing a pick, or you don't think your run blocking is good enough to convert.

    It's a very common audible out of a run play in the red-zone. If the defense has a clear numbers advantage in the box, you audible to the fade, and if it's incomplete that's still better than a turnover or tackle for loss.

    At that point you get time to make a new play-call based on what the defense is showing. Maybe you try a different run play, or you call a pass or play-action pass if you think they're going to stack the box agan.

    You get out of an unfavourable look against your run play, plus you get a 1/3 chance at a TD, maybe higher depending on your QB/WR duo. If it's first down, that's a hell of a lot better than wasting a timeout in most situations.

    53 seconds and TL;DR.
  • Babushka
    Babushka Member Posts: 211

    I'd run an Other every time.

    Like a playfake and pass to your OLB playing fullback?

    Or an end around?

    AGREE!!!

    Other is my jam.
  • Baseman
    Baseman Member Posts: 12,369
    Hand the ball to Marshawn Lynch (NT)
  • RaceBannon
    RaceBannon Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 113,726 Founders Club
    It wasn't a fade for Stanford. He ran out, turned around and waited for the jump ball against our midget
  • Pitchfork51
    Pitchfork51 Member Posts: 27,662

    It wasn't a fade for Stanford. He ran out, turned around and waited for the jump ball against our midget

    So..


    Best play in football.

    Take the odds with an overwhelming advantage where the upside is super high and the downside is low.


    The premise of this thread needs to diaff.

    As soon as you fucks get a 6'4 monster possession guy the tables will turn.
  • RaceBannon
    RaceBannon Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 113,726 Founders Club
    There is a difference between what Stanford did and the 3rd or 4th down fade in the endzone

    A big difference

    When you're watching a game and call the play before it happens the defense probably did too
  • HuskyJW
    HuskyJW Member Posts: 15,265

    You idiots are only looking at one side of the equation... The fade route is a low percentage play for BOTH sides. I.e., it has low completion percentage for the offense, but it's also incredibly unlikely to be intercepted.

    It makes sense if you have a big WR who can go up and get it and you're worried about your QB throwing a pick, or you don't think your run blocking is good enough to convert.

    It's a very common audible out of a run play in the red-zone. If the defense has a clear numbers advantage in the box, you audible to the fade, and if it's incomplete that's still better than a turnover or tackle for loss.

    At that point you get time to make a new play-call based on what the defense is showing. Maybe you try a different run play, or you call a pass or play-action pass if you think they're going to stack the box agan.

    You get out of an unfavourable look against your run play, plus you get a 1/3 chance at a TD, maybe higher depending on your QB/WR duo. If it's first down, that's a hell of a lot better than wasting a timeout in most situations.

    You mean like the Stanford vs OSU game? ;)
  • UWhuskytskeet
    UWhuskytskeet Member Posts: 7,113

    You idiots are only looking at one side of the equation... The fade route is a low percentage play for BOTH sides. I.e., it has low completion percentage for the offense, but it's also incredibly unlikely to be intercepted.

    It makes sense if you have a big WR who can go up and get it and you're worried about your QB throwing a pick, or you don't think your run blocking is good enough to convert.

    It's a very common audible out of a run play in the red-zone. If the defense has a clear numbers advantage in the box, you audible to the fade, and if it's incomplete that's still better than a turnover or tackle for loss.

    At that point you get time to make a new play-call based on what the defense is showing. Maybe you try a different run play, or you call a pass or play-action pass if you think they're going to stack the box agan.

    You get out of an unfavourable look against your run play, plus you get a 1/3 chance at a TD, maybe higher depending on your QB/WR duo. If it's first down, that's a hell of a lot better than wasting a timeout in most situations.

    Good point, except these numbers are for 2-point conversions specifically. You're better off calling a TO in this scenario.
  • Quietcowskee
    Quietcowskee Member Posts: 4,209 Standard Supporter
    Or just say anything not running the ball is a shitty play.
  • NorwegianHusky
    NorwegianHusky Member Posts: 3,425

    You idiots are only looking at one side of the equation... The fade route is a low percentage play for BOTH sides. I.e., it has low completion percentage for the offense, but it's also incredibly unlikely to be intercepted.

    It makes sense if you have a big WR who can go up and get it and you're worried about your QB throwing a pick, or you don't think your run blocking is good enough to convert.

    It's a very common audible out of a run play in the red-zone. If the defense has a clear numbers advantage in the box, you audible to the fade, and if it's incomplete that's still better than a turnover or tackle for loss.

    At that point you get time to make a new play-call based on what the defense is showing. Maybe you try a different run play, or you call a pass or play-action pass if you think they're going to stack the box agan.

    You get out of an unfavourable look against your run play, plus you get a 1/3 chance at a TD, maybe higher depending on your QB/WR duo. If it's first down, that's a hell of a lot better than wasting a timeout in most situations.

    Good point, except these numbers are for 2-point conversions specifically. You're better off calling a TO in this scenario.
    Yeah, only an idiot would call a fade on a 2-point coversion, unless you have supreme confidence in your QB and #1 WR, and get a favorable one-on-one matchup with that WR. Even then it's probably not the best play. I just roll my eyes at all the armchair experts who think the fade is a stupid play that never makes sense, regardless of situation, ignoring context when looking at stats.
  • NorwegianHusky
    NorwegianHusky Member Posts: 3,425

    My favorite fade story is Pitt, when Wannstedt was there, running a fade on 4th and goal at the end of game. It fell incomplete but there was a penalty on the defense so Pitt got another shot. They ran another fade. It went incomplete. They lost.

    Yeah that's a no balls move. Of course the other option is to run a more traditional and riskier pass play and if it goes wrong get shit about it for the rest of your life, see: Carroll, Pete & Bevell, Darrell.
  • AIRWOLF
    AIRWOLF Member Posts: 1,840

    Or just say anything not running the ball is a shitty play.

    In the NFL, the only time a run adds to win probability or expected points is in short yardage (<3 yards to go). So a two point conversion is literally one of the few times running the ball actually makes sense, and yet NFL coaches overwhelmingly call passes.

    Figures.
  • FireCohen
    FireCohen Member Posts: 21,823
    AIRWOLF said:

    Or just say anything not running the ball is a shitty play.

    In the NFL, the only time a run adds to win probability or expected points is in short yardage (<3 yards to go). So a two point conversion is literally one of the few times running the ball actually makes sense, and yet NFL coaches overwhelmingly call passes.

    Figures.</p>
    Maff is hard even for football coaches
  • Mosster47
    Mosster47 Member Posts: 6,246
    Wait a minute. So when Sling had 1st & goal from the six against Colorado with two timeout and almost two minutes left in the game averaging 6ypc a fade wasn't the smartest play call?

    I had read he is the smartest guy in the room.

    Oh nevermind, that was your Co-OC that made that call. Good luck this year.

  • Mosster47
    Mosster47 Member Posts: 6,246
    Wait a minute. So when Sling had 1st & goal from the six against Colorado with two timeout and almost two minutes left in the game averaging 6ypc a fade wasn't the
    dnc said:

    Mosster47 said:

    Wait a minute. So when Sling had 1st & goal from the six against Colorado with two timeout and almost two minutes left in the game averaging 6ypc a fade wasn't the smartest play call?

    I had read he is the smartest guy in the room.

    Oh nevermind, that was your Co-OC that made that call. Good luck this year.


    Stanford beats you guys too.
  • FremontTroll
    FremontTroll Member Posts: 4,744
    Mosster47 said:

    Wait a minute. So when Sling had 1st & goal from the six against Colorado with two timeout and almost two minutes left in the game averaging 6ypc a fade wasn't the smartest play call?

    I had read he is the smartest guy in the room.

    Oh nevermind, that was your Co-OC that made that call. Good luck this year.

    Wait, I thought you coached at the highest classification in a football state?

    Down 3 that playcall was conservative but fine for the reasons myself and Norwegian laid out.

    The bigger problems were your shit QB underthrowing the route by 5 yards and your WR getting outmuscled and tossed to the ground.
  • SyphilisButter
    SyphilisButter Member Posts: 221
    Mosster47 said:

    Wait a minute. So when Sling had 1st & goal from the six against Colorado with two timeout and almost two minutes left in the game averaging 6ypc a fade wasn't the smartest play call?

    I had read he is the smartest guy in the room.

    Oh nevermind, that was your Co-OC that made that call. Good luck this year.

    Kill yourself.