NCAA Tourney Chances
Comments
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Oregon was never on the bubble. Non conf was horriddnc said:
Well Oregon losing to WSU completely screwed that potential quadrant 2 matchup.dnc said:
You might be wrong on Oregon. They sit at #75 right now. It's possible UW could beat them and Oregon still finish top 75 (depending on what UO does in the PXT). If they do that's a quadrant two win, which we desperately need (currently 1-4 in quadrant 2, 4-4 in quadrant 1).ntxduck said:
This. UW is out right now. Oregon and OSU at home won't move the ledger at all. You can't say "2 in vegas will get us in for sure" until you know who you're playing in Vegas. I think it will take 2 wins in Vegas over teams above UW in the pecking order (Zona, USC, UCLA, ASU, Utah) for UW to get in. UW could win 3 if the bracket shakes out poorly for them (over Cal, OSU, and Stanford) and lose in the title game and still not get in.dnc said:
Doubt it, Cal doesn't help the RPI at all. Empty wins don't move the ledger.BaldwinIV said:better to be a 5 seed and crush cal in 1st round than be a 4 seed and play no game, right?
UW has to win both this week and then hope they get their shot at one/two of those quadrant one wins (which is fucking stupid but that's another thread) in Vegas.
Oregon St definitely isn't going to help.
I don't think there's any chance UW wins 3 in the conference tourney and doesn't go to the dance unless they get swept by the Oregons this week, if only because that's three more road/neutral wins. UW is out right now, they're not way out.
Ultimately I think we'll end up just on the wrong side of the bubble, but as @FreeChavez poonted out the zone should travel well in big, empty arenas. We might show very well in the PXT.
Gotta sweep this week first though.
OTOH, that might have popped Oregon's bubble. -
We've seen this before, with much more talented teams. The Pac12 tourney is going to be the make or break for this team. They need at least 2 wins to be considered a possible entrant. There will be upsets in other conference tourneys which means UW needs to go pretty deep into the PacXII to give themselves a shot.
A loss to oregon means you can adios any chance without just winning the whole conf tourney. -
Oregon lost their elimination game. If you can beat them and win one Pac 12 tourney game, it looks like you're in. I still hate that ASU is still in. I know the Pac 12 sucks this year but You still have to account for conference record. It's still a Power 5 conference. And ASU getting in over a Utah is criminal to me. It's stupid to put so much value in November wins.
But that is more or less what has you guys on the brink of making it as well. -
I'm just glad we're* in the bubble discussion at all
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Nosalemcoog said:Oregon lost their elimination game. If you can beat them and win one Pac 12 tourney game, it looks like you're in. I still hate that ASU is still in. I know the Pac 12 sucks this year but You still have to account for conference record. It's still a Power 5 conference. And ASU getting in over a Utah is criminal to me. It's stupid to put so much value in November wins.
But that is more or less what has you guys on the brink of making it as well. -
UW, Oregon, and Stanford have to win the pac 12 tourney to get in. UW lost any other opportunity after yesterday’s shitshow.
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We were definitely punching above our weight through January. Credit goes to Hopkins and the team for that.
Lunardi has us as the last four out. So win two and there's probably a 60-80% chance we're in. If we can make it to the final, it should be a lock. There are no locks after 2012 though. -
Lunardi hasn’t updated since UW lost to Oregon. UW has no at large shot, especially with being on the opposite side of the bracket from zona. P12 will get 3: zona, UCLA, usc...and whoever wins the conf tourney (if it’s not one of those 3).Fire_Marshall_Bill said:We were definitely punching above our weight through January. Credit goes to Hopkins and the team for that.
Lunardi has us as the last four out. So win two and there's probably a 60-80% chance we're in. If we can make it to the final, it should be a lock. There are no locks after 2012 though. -
UW has a pretty good chance of getting in if they get to the finalntxduck said:
Lunardi hasn’t updated since UW lost to Oregon. UW has no at large shot, especially with being on the opposite side of the bracket from zona. P12 will get 3: zona, UCLA, usc...and whoever wins the conf tourney (if it’s not one of those 3).Fire_Marshall_Bill said:We were definitely punching above our weight through January. Credit goes to Hopkins and the team for that.
Lunardi has us as the last four out. So win two and there's probably a 60-80% chance we're in. If we can make it to the final, it should be a lock. There are no locks after 2012 though. -
Wins over OSU and USC won’t be enough. Washington would be better off as an 8 seed. Beating Arizona in the second rd was the only thing going to bump up their resume. They have to win it all or they’ll be a top seed in the NIT.Petersen3098 said:
UW has a pretty good chance of getting in if they get to the finalntxduck said:
Lunardi hasn’t updated since UW lost to Oregon. UW has no at large shot, especially with being on the opposite side of the bracket from zona. P12 will get 3: zona, UCLA, usc...and whoever wins the conf tourney (if it’s not one of those 3).Fire_Marshall_Bill said:We were definitely punching above our weight through January. Credit goes to Hopkins and the team for that.
Lunardi has us as the last four out. So win two and there's probably a 60-80% chance we're in. If we can make it to the final, it should be a lock. There are no locks after 2012 though. -
Oopshaie said:Get destroyed by Oregon who is now certain they’re the best team in the conference.
Beat the little beavlets by 2-5 at home. Special.
Upset in the first game of the conf tourney.
Cook it my daWgs. -
If they get to the final that means they'll beat OSU, USC and Utah. Utah is a bubble team also so it'll help their resume.greenblood said:
Wins over OSU and USC won’t be enough. Washington would be better off as an 8 seed. Beating Arizona in the second rd was the only thing going to bump up their resume. They have to win it all or they’ll be a top seed in the NIT.Petersen3098 said:
UW has a pretty good chance of getting in if they get to the finalntxduck said:
Lunardi hasn’t updated since UW lost to Oregon. UW has no at large shot, especially with being on the opposite side of the bracket from zona. P12 will get 3: zona, UCLA, usc...and whoever wins the conf tourney (if it’s not one of those 3).Fire_Marshall_Bill said:We were definitely punching above our weight through January. Credit goes to Hopkins and the team for that.
Lunardi has us as the last four out. So win two and there's probably a 60-80% chance we're in. If we can make it to the final, it should be a lock. There are no locks after 2012 though. -
Since the Arizona win, UW has been the 10th best team in the conference. They need to win itPetersen3098 said:
If they get to the final that means they'll beat OSU, USC and Utah. Utah is a bubble team also so it'll help their resume.greenblood said:
Wins over OSU and USC won’t be enough. Washington would be better off as an 8 seed. Beating Arizona in the second rd was the only thing going to bump up their resume. They have to win it all or they’ll be a top seed in the NIT.Petersen3098 said:
UW has a pretty good chance of getting in if they get to the finalntxduck said:
Lunardi hasn’t updated since UW lost to Oregon. UW has no at large shot, especially with being on the opposite side of the bracket from zona. P12 will get 3: zona, UCLA, usc...and whoever wins the conf tourney (if it’s not one of those 3).Fire_Marshall_Bill said:We were definitely punching above our weight through January. Credit goes to Hopkins and the team for that.
Lunardi has us as the last four out. So win two and there's probably a 60-80% chance we're in. If we can make it to the final, it should be a lock. There are no locks after 2012 though. -
Utah also not a bubble team anymore. They need to win it to get in as well. UCLA winning at sc really screwed Utah and UW, not just because it put them into the field, but it moved Utah and uw over to the non-Zona (the only potential win that anyone on the committee would gaf about) side of the bracket.Petersen3098 said:
If they get to the final that means they'll beat OSU, USC and Utah. Utah is a bubble team also so it'll help their resume.greenblood said:
Wins over OSU and USC won’t be enough. Washington would be better off as an 8 seed. Beating Arizona in the second rd was the only thing going to bump up their resume. They have to win it all or they’ll be a top seed in the NIT.Petersen3098 said:
UW has a pretty good chance of getting in if they get to the finalntxduck said:
Lunardi hasn’t updated since UW lost to Oregon. UW has no at large shot, especially with being on the opposite side of the bracket from zona. P12 will get 3: zona, UCLA, usc...and whoever wins the conf tourney (if it’s not one of those 3).Fire_Marshall_Bill said:We were definitely punching above our weight through January. Credit goes to Hopkins and the team for that.
Lunardi has us as the last four out. So win two and there's probably a 60-80% chance we're in. If we can make it to the final, it should be a lock. There are no locks after 2012 though. -
Utah is still a bubble team in palm’s bracketntxduck said:
Utah also not a bubble team anymore. They need to win it to get in as well. UCLA winning at sc really screwed Utah and UW, not just because it put them into the field, but it moved Utah and uw over to the non-Zona (the only potential win that anyone on the committee would gaf about) side of the bracket.Petersen3098 said:
If they get to the final that means they'll beat OSU, USC and Utah. Utah is a bubble team also so it'll help their resume.greenblood said:
Wins over OSU and USC won’t be enough. Washington would be better off as an 8 seed. Beating Arizona in the second rd was the only thing going to bump up their resume. They have to win it all or they’ll be a top seed in the NIT.Petersen3098 said:
UW has a pretty good chance of getting in if they get to the finalntxduck said:
Lunardi hasn’t updated since UW lost to Oregon. UW has no at large shot, especially with being on the opposite side of the bracket from zona. P12 will get 3: zona, UCLA, usc...and whoever wins the conf tourney (if it’s not one of those 3).Fire_Marshall_Bill said:We were definitely punching above our weight through January. Credit goes to Hopkins and the team for that.
Lunardi has us as the last four out. So win two and there's probably a 60-80% chance we're in. If we can make it to the final, it should be a lock. There are no locks after 2012 though. -
I'm sure ASU can figure out how to lose to colorado and play their way out of the tournament.
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Cool. Palm and Lunardi don't know shit at this point. They always adjust on the final weekend based on what they're hearing from their people on the committee, which is how they end up so "accurate".Petersen3098 said:
Utah is still a bubble team in palm’s bracketntxduck said:
Utah also not a bubble team anymore. They need to win it to get in as well. UCLA winning at sc really screwed Utah and UW, not just because it put them into the field, but it moved Utah and uw over to the non-Zona (the only potential win that anyone on the committee would gaf about) side of the bracket.Petersen3098 said:
If they get to the final that means they'll beat OSU, USC and Utah. Utah is a bubble team also so it'll help their resume.greenblood said:
Wins over OSU and USC won’t be enough. Washington would be better off as an 8 seed. Beating Arizona in the second rd was the only thing going to bump up their resume. They have to win it all or they’ll be a top seed in the NIT.Petersen3098 said:
UW has a pretty good chance of getting in if they get to the finalntxduck said:
Lunardi hasn’t updated since UW lost to Oregon. UW has no at large shot, especially with being on the opposite side of the bracket from zona. P12 will get 3: zona, UCLA, usc...and whoever wins the conf tourney (if it’s not one of those 3).Fire_Marshall_Bill said:We were definitely punching above our weight through January. Credit goes to Hopkins and the team for that.
Lunardi has us as the last four out. So win two and there's probably a 60-80% chance we're in. If we can make it to the final, it should be a lock. There are no locks after 2012 though.
Utah isn't getting in unless they win the pac12. Neither is Washington. It's math at this point, unless you think that the P12 is going to be a 5 bid league, in which case, you dumb. -
While I realize that we would all prefer getting into the tournament would an NIT appearance mean more post-season experience at this point? Looking at this from a developmental standpoint for a young team, will it be better to make a deep NIT run than a one and done NCAA appearance?
Doog poast, doog poaster -
They did that long ago except the new fucktarded criteria doesn't consider your last 10 games. November games are just as important as yesterdaysPitchfork51 said:I'm sure ASU can figure out how to lose to colorado and play their way out of the tournament.
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Punch yourself in the groin as hard as you can.UW_Doog_Bot said:While I realize that we would all prefer getting into the tournament would an NIT appearance mean more post-season experience at this point? Looking at this from a developmental standpoint for a young team, will it be better to make a deep NIT run than a one and done NCAA appearance?
Doog poast, doog poaster -
TSIO
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Deserved. TSIO. I'd kill myself but it's only basketball.Gladstone said:
Punch yourself in the groin as hard as you can.UW_Doog_Bot said:While I realize that we would all prefer getting into the tournament would an NIT appearance mean more post-season experience at this point? Looking at this from a developmental standpoint for a young team, will it be better to make a deep NIT run than a one and done NCAA appearance?
Doog poast, doog poaster -
If you lose in the "first round" cough...cough...glorified play in game, then you might have a point that a deep NIT run is equal. But losing by 40 even in the "second round" of the NCAA tournament is better than a final four NIT run.UW_Doog_Bot said:While I realize that we would all prefer getting into the tournament would an NIT appearance mean more post-season experience at this point? Looking at this from a developmental standpoint for a young team, will it be better to make a deep NIT run than a one and done NCAA appearance?
Doog poast, doog poaster
I'm sorry if people get offended, but the NCAA tournament doesn't start until "round two". You can't say you made the tournament unless you win the play in or get a "bye". -
To be clear, any appearance in the NCAA is a greater accomplishment than whatever you do in the NIT. I was simply thinking of the fact that we could get more post-season games for the team's development. Still going to go punch myself in the groin.greenblood said:
If you lose in the "first round" cough...cough...glorified play in game, then you might have a point that a deep NIT run is equal. But losing by 40 even in the "second round" of the NCAA tournament is better than a final four NIT run.UW_Doog_Bot said:While I realize that we would all prefer getting into the tournament would an NIT appearance mean more post-season experience at this point? Looking at this from a developmental standpoint for a young team, will it be better to make a deep NIT run than a one and done NCAA appearance?
Doog poast, doog poaster
I'm sorry if people get offended, but the NCAA tournament doesn't start until "round two". You can't say you made the tournament unless you win the play in or get a "bye". -
I don't see much a difference playing 37 games instead of 34.UW_Doog_Bot said:
To be clear, any appearance in the NCAA is a greater accomplishment than whatever you do in the NIT. I was simply thinking of the fact that we could get more post-season games for the team's development. Still going to go punch myself in the groin.greenblood said:
If you lose in the "first round" cough...cough...glorified play in game, then you might have a point that a deep NIT run is equal. But losing by 40 even in the "second round" of the NCAA tournament is better than a final four NIT run.UW_Doog_Bot said:While I realize that we would all prefer getting into the tournament would an NIT appearance mean more post-season experience at this point? Looking at this from a developmental standpoint for a young team, will it be better to make a deep NIT run than a one and done NCAA appearance?
Doog poast, doog poaster
I'm sorry if people get offended, but the NCAA tournament doesn't start until "round two". You can't say you made the tournament unless you win the play in or get a "bye".
I think the experience on a big stage (NCAA Tournament) against a quality opponent even only for one game, is much better for a young teams development, then three games in a half full stadium against the Stanford's of the world.
At least if they are good next year, they would have NCAA tournament experience. An NIT birth does nothing to help them face NCAA tournament pressure next year. -
Fuck no, the only way that this would benefit the players by playing in the NIT is if Crisp and Timmins sit out.UW_Doog_Bot said:While I realize that we would all prefer getting into the tournament would an NIT appearance mean more post-season experience at this point? Looking at this from a developmental standpoint for a young team, will it be better to make a deep NIT run than a one and done NCAA appearance?
Doog poast, doog poaster -
UW actually has a good chance of getting in by getting to the final, I'm pretty sure a couple of bubble teams will lose games.ntxduck said:
Cool. Palm and Lunardi don't know shit at this point. They always adjust on the final weekend based on what they're hearing from their people on the committee, which is how they end up so "accurate".Petersen3098 said:
Utah is still a bubble team in palm’s bracketntxduck said:
Utah also not a bubble team anymore. They need to win it to get in as well. UCLA winning at sc really screwed Utah and UW, not just because it put them into the field, but it moved Utah and uw over to the non-Zona (the only potential win that anyone on the committee would gaf about) side of the bracket.Petersen3098 said:
If they get to the final that means they'll beat OSU, USC and Utah. Utah is a bubble team also so it'll help their resume.greenblood said:
Wins over OSU and USC won’t be enough. Washington would be better off as an 8 seed. Beating Arizona in the second rd was the only thing going to bump up their resume. They have to win it all or they’ll be a top seed in the NIT.Petersen3098 said:
UW has a pretty good chance of getting in if they get to the finalntxduck said:
Lunardi hasn’t updated since UW lost to Oregon. UW has no at large shot, especially with being on the opposite side of the bracket from zona. P12 will get 3: zona, UCLA, usc...and whoever wins the conf tourney (if it’s not one of those 3).Fire_Marshall_Bill said:We were definitely punching above our weight through January. Credit goes to Hopkins and the team for that.
Lunardi has us as the last four out. So win two and there's probably a 60-80% chance we're in. If we can make it to the final, it should be a lock. There are no locks after 2012 though.
Utah isn't getting in unless they win the pac12. Neither is Washington. It's math at this point, unless you think that the P12 is going to be a 5 bid league, in which case, you dumb. -
And a few non-bubble teams will steal bids by winning their conference tourneys (MWC, A10, CUSA).Petersen3098 said:
UW actually has a good chance of getting in by getting to the final, I'm pretty sure a couple of bubble teams will lose games.ntxduck said:
Cool. Palm and Lunardi don't know shit at this point. They always adjust on the final weekend based on what they're hearing from their people on the committee, which is how they end up so "accurate".Petersen3098 said:
Utah is still a bubble team in palm’s bracketntxduck said:
Utah also not a bubble team anymore. They need to win it to get in as well. UCLA winning at sc really screwed Utah and UW, not just because it put them into the field, but it moved Utah and uw over to the non-Zona (the only potential win that anyone on the committee would gaf about) side of the bracket.Petersen3098 said:
If they get to the final that means they'll beat OSU, USC and Utah. Utah is a bubble team also so it'll help their resume.greenblood said:
Wins over OSU and USC won’t be enough. Washington would be better off as an 8 seed. Beating Arizona in the second rd was the only thing going to bump up their resume. They have to win it all or they’ll be a top seed in the NIT.Petersen3098 said:
UW has a pretty good chance of getting in if they get to the finalntxduck said:
Lunardi hasn’t updated since UW lost to Oregon. UW has no at large shot, especially with being on the opposite side of the bracket from zona. P12 will get 3: zona, UCLA, usc...and whoever wins the conf tourney (if it’s not one of those 3).Fire_Marshall_Bill said:We were definitely punching above our weight through January. Credit goes to Hopkins and the team for that.
Lunardi has us as the last four out. So win two and there's probably a 60-80% chance we're in. If we can make it to the final, it should be a lock. There are no locks after 2012 though.
Utah isn't getting in unless they win the pac12. Neither is Washington. It's math at this point, unless you think that the P12 is going to be a 5 bid league, in which case, you dumb.
Here's how it is today;
32 Automatic Bids
36 At Large Spots
44 teams that are safely in, based on current projections;
8--ACC (UVA, Duke, UNC, Clemson, Miami, VT, NC State, FSU)
7--Big 12 (Kansas, TTech, WVA, TCU, OU, Kstate, Texas). Don't agree with Texas as safel in but Vegas has them as -300 right now, so...
6--Big East (Nova, Xavier, Butler, Creighton, Seton Hall, Providence)
4--Big Ten (Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue)
3--Pac 12 (Arizona, USC, UCLA)
7--SEC (Auburn, TN, Ark, UK, UF, AtM, Mizzou)
3--American (Cincy, Wichita, Houston)
2--WCC (Gonzaga, St Marys)
2--A10 (Rhode Island, St Bonaventure)
1--CUSA (MTSU)
1--MWC (Nevada)
Now, assuming (which is a big assumption) that all of the above conference tourneys are won by teams listed here, that leaves 3 (44 minus the 11 conferences above=33, and there are 36 at larges total) bids for the following teams;
Louisville, Cuse, ND, Baylor, Marquette, Nebraska, Penn State, Utah, ASU, UW, Alabama.
UW is definitely towards the bottom of that list. They'd have to hope most of the teams in front of them lose in the 1st round of their conference tourney, while also hoping that Nevada, MTSU, and RIU/ST Bon are all able to win their conference tourneys so the bubble doesn't shrink to 2 teams, 1 team, or even 0.
It's not going to happen.
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Next year has nothing to do with whether UW makes the tourney or NIT. There are no great track records of NIT success being a precursor to winning in the future.UW_Doog_Bot said:While I realize that we would all prefer getting into the tournament would an NIT appearance mean more post-season experience at this point? Looking at this from a developmental standpoint for a young team, will it be better to make a deep NIT run than a one and done NCAA appearance?
Doog poast, doog poaster
