NCAA Tourney Chances
Comments
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Oregon was never on the bubble. Non conf was horriddnc said:
Well Oregon losing to WSU completely screwed that potential quadrant 2 matchup.dnc said:
You might be wrong on Oregon. They sit at #75 right now. It's possible UW could beat them and Oregon still finish top 75 (depending on what UO does in the PXT). If they do that's a quadrant two win, which we desperately need (currently 1-4 in quadrant 2, 4-4 in quadrant 1).ntxduck said:
This. UW is out right now. Oregon and OSU at home won't move the ledger at all. You can't say "2 in vegas will get us in for sure" until you know who you're playing in Vegas. I think it will take 2 wins in Vegas over teams above UW in the pecking order (Zona, USC, UCLA, ASU, Utah) for UW to get in. UW could win 3 if the bracket shakes out poorly for them (over Cal, OSU, and Stanford) and lose in the title game and still not get in.dnc said:
Doubt it, Cal doesn't help the RPI at all. Empty wins don't move the ledger.BaldwinIV said:better to be a 5 seed and crush cal in 1st round than be a 4 seed and play no game, right?
UW has to win both this week and then hope they get their shot at one/two of those quadrant one wins (which is fucking stupid but that's another thread) in Vegas.
Oregon St definitely isn't going to help.
I don't think there's any chance UW wins 3 in the conference tourney and doesn't go to the dance unless they get swept by the Oregons this week, if only because that's three more road/neutral wins. UW is out right now, they're not way out.
Ultimately I think we'll end up just on the wrong side of the bubble, but as @FreeChavez poonted out the zone should travel well in big, empty arenas. We might show very well in the PXT.
Gotta sweep this week first though.
OTOH, that might have popped Oregon's bubble. -
We've seen this before, with much more talented teams. The Pac12 tourney is going to be the make or break for this team. They need at least 2 wins to be considered a possible entrant. There will be upsets in other conference tourneys which means UW needs to go pretty deep into the PacXII to give themselves a shot.
A loss to oregon means you can adios any chance without just winning the whole conf tourney. -
Oregon lost their elimination game. If you can beat them and win one Pac 12 tourney game, it looks like you're in. I still hate that ASU is still in. I know the Pac 12 sucks this year but You still have to account for conference record. It's still a Power 5 conference. And ASU getting in over a Utah is criminal to me. It's stupid to put so much value in November wins.
But that is more or less what has you guys on the brink of making it as well. -
I'm just glad we're* in the bubble discussion at all
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Nosalemcoog said:Oregon lost their elimination game. If you can beat them and win one Pac 12 tourney game, it looks like you're in. I still hate that ASU is still in. I know the Pac 12 sucks this year but You still have to account for conference record. It's still a Power 5 conference. And ASU getting in over a Utah is criminal to me. It's stupid to put so much value in November wins.
But that is more or less what has you guys on the brink of making it as well. -
UW, Oregon, and Stanford have to win the pac 12 tourney to get in. UW lost any other opportunity after yesterday’s shitshow.
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We were definitely punching above our weight through January. Credit goes to Hopkins and the team for that.
Lunardi has us as the last four out. So win two and there's probably a 60-80% chance we're in. If we can make it to the final, it should be a lock. There are no locks after 2012 though. -
Lunardi hasn’t updated since UW lost to Oregon. UW has no at large shot, especially with being on the opposite side of the bracket from zona. P12 will get 3: zona, UCLA, usc...and whoever wins the conf tourney (if it’s not one of those 3).Fire_Marshall_Bill said:We were definitely punching above our weight through January. Credit goes to Hopkins and the team for that.
Lunardi has us as the last four out. So win two and there's probably a 60-80% chance we're in. If we can make it to the final, it should be a lock. There are no locks after 2012 though. -
UW has a pretty good chance of getting in if they get to the finalntxduck said:
Lunardi hasn’t updated since UW lost to Oregon. UW has no at large shot, especially with being on the opposite side of the bracket from zona. P12 will get 3: zona, UCLA, usc...and whoever wins the conf tourney (if it’s not one of those 3).Fire_Marshall_Bill said:We were definitely punching above our weight through January. Credit goes to Hopkins and the team for that.
Lunardi has us as the last four out. So win two and there's probably a 60-80% chance we're in. If we can make it to the final, it should be a lock. There are no locks after 2012 though. -
Wins over OSU and USC won’t be enough. Washington would be better off as an 8 seed. Beating Arizona in the second rd was the only thing going to bump up their resume. They have to win it all or they’ll be a top seed in the NIT.Petersen3098 said:
UW has a pretty good chance of getting in if they get to the finalntxduck said:
Lunardi hasn’t updated since UW lost to Oregon. UW has no at large shot, especially with being on the opposite side of the bracket from zona. P12 will get 3: zona, UCLA, usc...and whoever wins the conf tourney (if it’s not one of those 3).Fire_Marshall_Bill said:We were definitely punching above our weight through January. Credit goes to Hopkins and the team for that.
Lunardi has us as the last four out. So win two and there's probably a 60-80% chance we're in. If we can make it to the final, it should be a lock. There are no locks after 2012 though.
