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NCAA Tourney Chances
BaldwinIV
Member Posts: 797
Beat OSU/UO and 1 game in P12 tourney = near lock
Beat 1 of OSU/UO and need 2 games in the P12 tourney
Huge weekz0r.
Beat 1 of OSU/UO and need 2 games in the P12 tourney
Huge weekz0r.
Comments
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Get destroyed by Oregon who is now certain they’re the best team in the conference.
Beat the little beavlets by 2-5 at home. Special.
Upset in the first game of the conf tourney.
Cook it my daWgs. -
better to be a 5 seed and crush cal in 1st round than be a 4 seed and play no game, right?
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Lol. NoBaldwinIV said:Beat OSU/UO and 1 game in P12 tourney = near lock
Beat 1 of OSU/UO and need 2 games in the P12 tourney
Huge weekz0r. -
But did you tell the coach to fuck off?haie said:Get destroyed by Oregon who is now certain they’re the best team in the conference.
Beat the little beavlets by 2-5 at home. Special.
Upset in the first game of the conf tourney.
Cook it my daWgs. -
Doubt it, Cal doesn't help the RPI at all. Empty wins don't move the ledger.BaldwinIV said:better to be a 5 seed and crush cal in 1st round than be a 4 seed and play no game, right?
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This. UW is out right now. Oregon and OSU at home won't move the ledger at all. You can't say "2 in vegas will get us in for sure" until you know who you're playing in Vegas. I think it will take 2 wins in Vegas over teams above UW in the pecking order (Zona, USC, UCLA, ASU, Utah) for UW to get in. UW could win 3 if the bracket shakes out poorly for them (over Cal, OSU, and Stanford) and lose in the title game and still not get in.dnc said:
Doubt it, Cal doesn't help the RPI at all. Empty wins don't move the ledger.BaldwinIV said:better to be a 5 seed and crush cal in 1st round than be a 4 seed and play no game, right?
UW has to win both this week and then hope they get their shot at one/two of those quadrant one wins (which is fucking stupid but that's another thread) in Vegas. -
You might be wrong on Oregon. They sit at #75 right now. It's possible UW could beat them and Oregon still finish top 75 (depending on what UO does in the PXT). If they do that's a quadrant two win, which we desperately need (currently 1-4 in quadrant 2, 4-4 in quadrant 1).ntxduck said:
This. UW is out right now. Oregon and OSU at home won't move the ledger at all. You can't say "2 in vegas will get us in for sure" until you know who you're playing in Vegas. I think it will take 2 wins in Vegas over teams above UW in the pecking order (Zona, USC, UCLA, ASU, Utah) for UW to get in. UW could win 3 if the bracket shakes out poorly for them (over Cal, OSU, and Stanford) and lose in the title game and still not get in.dnc said:
Doubt it, Cal doesn't help the RPI at all. Empty wins don't move the ledger.BaldwinIV said:better to be a 5 seed and crush cal in 1st round than be a 4 seed and play no game, right?
UW has to win both this week and then hope they get their shot at one/two of those quadrant one wins (which is fucking stupid but that's another thread) in Vegas.
Oregon St definitely isn't going to help.
I don't think there's any chance UW wins 3 in the conference tourney and doesn't go to the dance unless they get swept by the Oregons this week, if only because that's three more road/neutral wins. UW is out right now, they're not way out.
Ultimately I think we'll end up just on the wrong side of the bubble, but as @FreeChavez poonted out the zone should travel well in big, empty arenas. We might show very well in the PXT.
Gotta sweep this week first though. -
a 22 win team with our resume gets in
HTH -
I mean, they dropped you out of the last Bubble Watch completely (which in previous years has been the most accurate gauge of who is in who is out--way more accurate than Lunardi, who waits on what he's hearing from his moles inside the committee and changes his shit at the last minute to get as close to possible).BaldwinIV said:a 22 win team with our resume gets in
HTH
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/page/bubblewatch022318/strength-big-ten-not-numbers
But sure, tell yourself if you sweep the Oregon schools and then beat Oregon State and Stanford in Vegas you're a lock. The Pac 12 is really, really bad. It's not going to get more than 3 teams in. UW needs to do something to leap frog past 3 of ASU, USC, UCLA, and Utah. -
FUCK.
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Number of wins don't matterBaldwinIV said:a 22 win team with our resume gets in
HTH -
UW's best chance is for a couple of big upsets in the pac12 tourney. This is going to be one of those years where the committee basically looks at the P12 (and a few other conferences) tourney and says--"who really wants to be in?".dnc said:
Number of wins don't matterBaldwinIV said:a 22 win team with our resume gets in
HTH
If the conf. tourney started this week, and in Round 1 Cal upsets Utah and Colorado beats ASU (while UW beats Wazzu)--UW would leap frog 2 of the 3 they need right there...Then if Oregon took out USC in Round 2, while UW beat Stanford, all of a sudden UW is right back in it based on who their competitors lost to, not based on who they beat.
TLDR; Pac 12 tourney is going to be extremely important this year. Basically 5 teams fighting for 2 spots, and whoever the 2 are who go the farthest probably get in. -
For the record...I do think Bubble Watch is way too bullish on ASU. They are a bad, bad team right now--so it will come down to how much the committee values recent form.BaldwinIV said:FUCK.
I kind of want ASU to get in, just because that will be the easiest 8/9 game (which historically I am fucking awful at picking) ever. They'll get smashed by 25.
Going into the last week, if I had to rank the P12 today in the eyes of the committee it would be;
1. Arizona (Lock)
2. USC (safely in)
3. ASU (last 4 in/play-in game)
4. UCLA (first 4 out)
5. Tied; Utah (out)/UW (out) -
Anything can happen this year. Even a team like Oregon or Stanford could win the damn thing. If Oregon somehow won the tournament, nobody would be saying..."wow that's incredible." The Pac 12 consists of 8 mediocre teams (Arizona, ASU, USC, Washington, UCLA, Utah, Stanford, and Oregon)ntxduck said:
UW's best chance is for a couple of big upsets in the pac12 tourney. This is going to be one of those years where the committee basically looks at the P12 (and a few other conferences) tourney and says--"who really wants to be in?".dnc said:
Number of wins don't matterBaldwinIV said:a 22 win team with our resume gets in
HTH
If the conf. tourney started this week, and in Round 1 Cal upsets Utah and Colorado beats ASU (while UW beats Wazzu)--UW would leap frog 2 of the 3 they need right there...Then if Oregon took out USC in Round 2, while UW beat Stanford, all of a sudden UW is right back in it based on who their competitors lost to, not based on who they beat.
TLDR; Pac 12 tourney is going to be extremely important this year. Basically 5 teams fighting for 2 spots, and whoever the 2 are who go the farthest probably get in.
Arizona is the only one of the 8 that is a lock. I'd make an argument that with the distractions going on at Arizona, any of these remaining 7 mediocre teams could win the Pac 12 tournament. I do not see how the Pac 12 gets more than three in unless Oregon or Stanford win the tournament, thus busting the bubble. There is also a very likely chance that the Pac12 may only get 2 teams in this year. -
ASU still being in the tournament is all you need to see that the formulas the NCAA uses are fucktarded. They prolly get bounced in the 1st rd of the Pac 12 tourney and still make a play in game at 8-11 in the conference.
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Not much different than an SEC fball team going 4-0 against non con cupcakes and 2-7 in conference making a bowl game over a team that plays a tough non con schedule going 0-3 and then 5-4 in conference....salemcoog said:ASU still being in the tournament is all you need to see that the formulas the NCAA uses are fucktarded. They prolly get bounced in the 1st rd of the Pac 12 tourney and still make a play in game at 8-11 in the conference.
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Teams that go 0-3 don’t go 5-4 in conference unless they are in the WACntxduck said:
Not much different than an SEC fball team going 4-0 against non con cupcakes and 2-7 in conference making a bowl game over a team that plays a tough non con schedule going 0-3 and then 5-4 in conference....salemcoog said:ASU still being in the tournament is all you need to see that the formulas the NCAA uses are fucktarded. They prolly get bounced in the 1st rd of the Pac 12 tourney and still make a play in game at 8-11 in the conference.
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Or unless they're coached by Mike Riley...greenblood said:
Teams that go 0-3 don’t go 5-4 in conference unless they are in the WACntxduck said:
Not much different than an SEC fball team going 4-0 against non con cupcakes and 2-7 in conference making a bowl game over a team that plays a tough non con schedule going 0-3 and then 5-4 in conference....salemcoog said:ASU still being in the tournament is all you need to see that the formulas the NCAA uses are fucktarded. They prolly get bounced in the 1st rd of the Pac 12 tourney and still make a play in game at 8-11 in the conference.
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You would think...but Riley never made a bowl game going 0-3 in non conference. He’s done it at 1-2, but even Rich Brooks made a Rose Bowl after starting 1-2ntxduck said:
Or unless they're coached by Mike Riley...greenblood said:
Teams that go 0-3 don’t go 5-4 in conference unless they are in the WACntxduck said:
Not much different than an SEC fball team going 4-0 against non con cupcakes and 2-7 in conference making a bowl game over a team that plays a tough non con schedule going 0-3 and then 5-4 in conference....salemcoog said:ASU still being in the tournament is all you need to see that the formulas the NCAA uses are fucktarded. They prolly get bounced in the 1st rd of the Pac 12 tourney and still make a play in game at 8-11 in the conference.
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Hi, Slim. Meet None. He wants to discuss UW seeding in the upcoming NCAA tournament
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Pretty funny...doogie said:Hi, Slim. Meet None. He wants to discuss UW seeding in the upcoming NCAA tournament
However, any team that has a decent shot at winning the Pac 12 tournament has a decent chance of making the tourney. You can make an argument that there won't be much shock if either Arizona, ASU, USC, UCLA, Washington, Stanford, Oregon, or Utah win it and get the automatic bid.
You basically have 8 mediocre teams and 4 big sky teams in this conference. -
The PAC12 is doing itself no favors across the bored. No idea how they've somehow become THIS bad, but when a major 5 league has one lock(and that lock isn't all that impressive in AZ) and the rest are working their way into a 68 team tourney it's downright embarrassing. It's looking more likely that Miller is back at AZ with the ESPN egg lay, however the pac12 needs a massive jolt of talent. The mediocre to bad teams are the norm vs 5-7 years ago when at least 25% of the league was top 25.
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For any of you stupid fucks that only look at Lunardi's stuff, take a look at this link instead: http://www.bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html
Ranks all projections based on a 5 year average of accuracy. Most people that know what they're doing have UW as one of the last teams in. I think 3 more wins gets it done, including the P12 tourney. Just can't drop the OSU game. -
Arizona, Utah, SC and maybe Oregon deserve to be in if they make the P12 title game. Everyone else should gas up their fishin boats. But again ASU probably takes Utah or Oregons place.
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Looking at the NCAA Team Sheets that the committee is using, the problem w UW and the P12 teams not named Arizona is that their resumes are all going to look the same.
UW’s biggest problems right now:
Risk of Oregon’s RPI dropping below 75 + Oregon St being a no upside all downside game this weekend.
Our BPI and POM Numbers way higher than RPI giving pause to how good we really are (accurate) ... we’ve definitely drove better results than we should have
The resumes of the other P12 teams on the bubble look very similar to ours w SC and ASU having slightly stronger resumes than UW, UCLA, and Utah. The Xavier win will likely save ASU.
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The point being. UW can win both games this weekend, but if they don't beat Arizona, USC, or an ASU in the Pac 12 tournament, any team behind them that gets a big upset will jump them.Miley_Cyrus said:For any of you stupid fucks that only look at Lunardi's stuff, take a look at this link instead: http://www.bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html
Ranks all projections based on a 5 year average of accuracy. Most people that know what they're doing have UW as one of the last teams in. I think 3 more wins gets it done, including the P12 tourney. Just can't drop the OSU game.
Recency also plays a part. UW hasn't looked as good recently as they did at the beginning of the season. Being hot at the end of the season is almost as important if not more important than the end of season resume. What I'm trying to say is that if UW doesn't look like the same team that upset Kansas early this year, the committee will absolutely hold that against them. -
Probably more importantly Kansas doesn’t look like the same team that we beat ...
I don’t think we’ve dropped a ton in our level of play ... we have our warts and they’ve shown up from time to time down the stretch -
We are pretty much who we thought we are. A team with limited potential. At least we are playing up to that potential is all.Tequilla said:Probably more importantly Kansas doesn’t look like the same team that we beat ...
I don’t think we’ve dropped a ton in our level of play ... we have our warts and they’ve shown up from time to time down the stretch -
You are probably right.Tequilla said:Probably more importantly Kansas doesn’t look like the same team that we beat ...
I don’t think we’ve dropped a ton in our level of play ... we have our warts and they’ve shown up from time to time down the stretch -
Well Oregon losing to WSU completely screwed that potential quadrant 2 matchup.dnc said:
You might be wrong on Oregon. They sit at #75 right now. It's possible UW could beat them and Oregon still finish top 75 (depending on what UO does in the PXT). If they do that's a quadrant two win, which we desperately need (currently 1-4 in quadrant 2, 4-4 in quadrant 1).ntxduck said:
This. UW is out right now. Oregon and OSU at home won't move the ledger at all. You can't say "2 in vegas will get us in for sure" until you know who you're playing in Vegas. I think it will take 2 wins in Vegas over teams above UW in the pecking order (Zona, USC, UCLA, ASU, Utah) for UW to get in. UW could win 3 if the bracket shakes out poorly for them (over Cal, OSU, and Stanford) and lose in the title game and still not get in.dnc said:
Doubt it, Cal doesn't help the RPI at all. Empty wins don't move the ledger.BaldwinIV said:better to be a 5 seed and crush cal in 1st round than be a 4 seed and play no game, right?
UW has to win both this week and then hope they get their shot at one/two of those quadrant one wins (which is fucking stupid but that's another thread) in Vegas.
Oregon St definitely isn't going to help.
I don't think there's any chance UW wins 3 in the conference tourney and doesn't go to the dance unless they get swept by the Oregons this week, if only because that's three more road/neutral wins. UW is out right now, they're not way out.
Ultimately I think we'll end up just on the wrong side of the bubble, but as @FreeChavez poonted out the zone should travel well in big, empty arenas. We might show very well in the PXT.
Gotta sweep this week first though.
OTOH, that might have popped Oregon's bubble.
