NCAA Tourney Chances

BaldwinIV · February 2018

Beat OSU/UO and 1 game in P12 tourney = near lock
Beat 1 of OSU/UO and need 2 games in the P12 tourney

Huge weekz0r.

haie · February 2018

Get destroyed by Oregon who is now certain they’re the best team in the conference.

Beat the little beavlets by 2-5 at home. Special.

Upset in the first game of the conf tourney.

Cook it my daWgs.

BaldwinIV · February 2018

better to be a 5 seed and crush cal in 1st round than be a 4 seed and play no game, right?

ntxduck · February 2018

BaldwinIV said:
Beat OSU/UO and 1 game in P12 tourney = near lock
Beat 1 of OSU/UO and need 2 games in the P12 tourney

Huge weekz0r.

Lol. No

theknowledge · February 2018

haie said:
Get destroyed by Oregon who is now certain they’re the best team in the conference.

Beat the little beavlets by 2-5 at home. Special.

Upset in the first game of the conf tourney.

Cook it my daWgs.

But did you tell the coach to fuck off?

dnc · February 2018

BaldwinIV said:
better to be a 5 seed and crush cal in 1st round than be a 4 seed and play no game, right?

Doubt it, Cal doesn't help the RPI at all. Empty wins don't move the ledger.

ntxduck · February 2018

dnc said:

BaldwinIV said:
better to be a 5 seed and crush cal in 1st round than be a 4 seed and play no game, right?
Doubt it, Cal doesn't help the RPI at all. Empty wins don't move the ledger.

This. UW is out right now. Oregon and OSU at home won't move the ledger at all. You can't say "2 in vegas will get us in for sure" until you know who you're playing in Vegas. I think it will take 2 wins in Vegas over teams above UW in the pecking order (Zona, USC, UCLA, ASU, Utah) for UW to get in. UW could win 3 if the bracket shakes out poorly for them (over Cal, OSU, and Stanford) and lose in the title game and still not get in.

UW has to win both this week and then hope they get their shot at one/two of those quadrant one wins (which is fucking stupid but that's another thread) in Vegas.

dnc · February 2018

ntxduck said:

dnc said:

BaldwinIV said:
better to be a 5 seed and crush cal in 1st round than be a 4 seed and play no game, right?
Doubt it, Cal doesn't help the RPI at all. Empty wins don't move the ledger.
This. UW is out right now. Oregon and OSU at home won't move the ledger at all. You can't say "2 in vegas will get us in for sure" until you know who you're playing in Vegas. I think it will take 2 wins in Vegas over teams above UW in the pecking order (Zona, USC, UCLA, ASU, Utah) for UW to get in. UW could win 3 if the bracket shakes out poorly for them (over Cal, OSU, and Stanford) and lose in the title game and still not get in.

UW has to win both this week and then hope they get their shot at one/two of those quadrant one wins (which is fucking stupid but that's another thread) in Vegas.

You might be wrong on Oregon. They sit at #75 right now. It's possible UW could beat them and Oregon still finish top 75 (depending on what UO does in the PXT). If they do that's a quadrant two win, which we desperately need (currently 1-4 in quadrant 2, 4-4 in quadrant 1).

Oregon St definitely isn't going to help.

I don't think there's any chance UW wins 3 in the conference tourney and doesn't go to the dance unless they get swept by the Oregons this week, if only because that's three more road/neutral wins. UW is out right now, they're not way out.

Ultimately I think we'll end up just on the wrong side of the bubble, but as @FreeChavez poonted out the zone should travel well in big, empty arenas. We might show very well in the PXT.

Gotta sweep this week first though.

BaldwinIV · February 2018

a 22 win team with our resume gets in

HTH

ntxduck · February 2018

BaldwinIV said:
a 22 win team with our resume gets in

HTH

I mean, they dropped you out of the last Bubble Watch completely (which in previous years has been the most accurate gauge of who is in who is out--way more accurate than Lunardi, who waits on what he's hearing from his moles inside the committee and changes his shit at the last minute to get as close to possible).

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/page/bubblewatch022318/strength-big-ten-not-numbers

But sure, tell yourself if you sweep the Oregon schools and then beat Oregon State and Stanford in Vegas you're a lock. The Pac 12 is really, really bad. It's not going to get more than 3 teams in. UW needs to do something to leap frog past 3 of ASU, USC, UCLA, and Utah.

BaldwinIV · February 2018

FUCK.

dnc · February 2018

BaldwinIV said:
a 22 win team with our resume gets in

HTH

Number of wins don't matter

ntxduck · February 2018

dnc said:

BaldwinIV said:
a 22 win team with our resume gets in

HTH
Number of wins don't matter

UW's best chance is for a couple of big upsets in the pac12 tourney. This is going to be one of those years where the committee basically looks at the P12 (and a few other conferences) tourney and says--"who really wants to be in?".

If the conf. tourney started this week, and in Round 1 Cal upsets Utah and Colorado beats ASU (while UW beats Wazzu)--UW would leap frog 2 of the 3 they need right there...Then if Oregon took out USC in Round 2, while UW beat Stanford, all of a sudden UW is right back in it based on who their competitors lost to, not based on who they beat.

TLDR; Pac 12 tourney is going to be extremely important this year. Basically 5 teams fighting for 2 spots, and whoever the 2 are who go the farthest probably get in.

ntxduck · February 2018

BaldwinIV said:
FUCK.

For the record...I do think Bubble Watch is way too bullish on ASU. They are a bad, bad team right now--so it will come down to how much the committee values recent form.

I kind of want ASU to get in, just because that will be the easiest 8/9 game (which historically I am fucking awful at picking) ever. They'll get smashed by 25.

Going into the last week, if I had to rank the P12 today in the eyes of the committee it would be;

1. Arizona (Lock)
2. USC (safely in)
3. ASU (last 4 in/play-in game)
4. UCLA (first 4 out)
5. Tied; Utah (out)/UW (out)

greenblood · February 2018

ntxduck said:

dnc said:

BaldwinIV said:
a 22 win team with our resume gets in

HTH
Number of wins don't matter
UW's best chance is for a couple of big upsets in the pac12 tourney. This is going to be one of those years where the committee basically looks at the P12 (and a few other conferences) tourney and says--"who really wants to be in?".

If the conf. tourney started this week, and in Round 1 Cal upsets Utah and Colorado beats ASU (while UW beats Wazzu)--UW would leap frog 2 of the 3 they need right there...Then if Oregon took out USC in Round 2, while UW beat Stanford, all of a sudden UW is right back in it based on who their competitors lost to, not based on who they beat.

TLDR; Pac 12 tourney is going to be extremely important this year. Basically 5 teams fighting for 2 spots, and whoever the 2 are who go the farthest probably get in.

Anything can happen this year. Even a team like Oregon or Stanford could win the damn thing. If Oregon somehow won the tournament, nobody would be saying..."wow that's incredible." The Pac 12 consists of 8 mediocre teams (Arizona, ASU, USC, Washington, UCLA, Utah, Stanford, and Oregon)

Arizona is the only one of the 8 that is a lock. I'd make an argument that with the distractions going on at Arizona, any of these remaining 7 mediocre teams could win the Pac 12 tournament. I do not see how the Pac 12 gets more than three in unless Oregon or Stanford win the tournament, thus busting the bubble. There is also a very likely chance that the Pac12 may only get 2 teams in this year.

Kaepsknee · February 2018

ASU still being in the tournament is all you need to see that the formulas the NCAA uses are fucktarded. They prolly get bounced in the 1st rd of the Pac 12 tourney and still make a play in game at 8-11 in the conference.

ntxduck · February 2018

salemcoog said:
ASU still being in the tournament is all you need to see that the formulas the NCAA uses are fucktarded. They prolly get bounced in the 1st rd of the Pac 12 tourney and still make a play in game at 8-11 in the conference.

Not much different than an SEC fball team going 4-0 against non con cupcakes and 2-7 in conference making a bowl game over a team that plays a tough non con schedule going 0-3 and then 5-4 in conference....

greenblood · February 2018

ntxduck said:

salemcoog said:
ASU still being in the tournament is all you need to see that the formulas the NCAA uses are fucktarded. They prolly get bounced in the 1st rd of the Pac 12 tourney and still make a play in game at 8-11 in the conference.
Not much different than an SEC fball team going 4-0 against non con cupcakes and 2-7 in conference making a bowl game over a team that plays a tough non con schedule going 0-3 and then 5-4 in conference....

Teams that go 0-3 don’t go 5-4 in conference unless they are in the WAC

ntxduck · February 2018

greenblood said:

ntxduck said:

salemcoog said:
ASU still being in the tournament is all you need to see that the formulas the NCAA uses are fucktarded. They prolly get bounced in the 1st rd of the Pac 12 tourney and still make a play in game at 8-11 in the conference.
Not much different than an SEC fball team going 4-0 against non con cupcakes and 2-7 in conference making a bowl game over a team that plays a tough non con schedule going 0-3 and then 5-4 in conference....
Teams that go 0-3 don’t go 5-4 in conference unless they are in the WAC

Or unless they're coached by Mike Riley...

greenblood · February 2018

ntxduck said:

greenblood said:

ntxduck said:

salemcoog said:
ASU still being in the tournament is all you need to see that the formulas the NCAA uses are fucktarded. They prolly get bounced in the 1st rd of the Pac 12 tourney and still make a play in game at 8-11 in the conference.
Not much different than an SEC fball team going 4-0 against non con cupcakes and 2-7 in conference making a bowl game over a team that plays a tough non con schedule going 0-3 and then 5-4 in conference....
Teams that go 0-3 don’t go 5-4 in conference unless they are in the WAC
Or unless they're coached by Mike Riley...

You would think...but Riley never made a bowl game going 0-3 in non conference. He’s done it at 1-2, but even Rich Brooks made a Rose Bowl after starting 1-2

doogie · February 2018

Hi, Slim. Meet None. He wants to discuss UW seeding in the upcoming NCAA tournament

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