NCAA Tourney Chances

BaldwinIV said:

Beat OSU/UO and 1 game in P12 tourney = near lock
Beat 1 of OSU/UO and need 2 games in the P12 tourney

Huge weekz0r.

Lol. No

ntxduck said:

dnc said:

BaldwinIV said:

better to be a 5 seed and crush cal in 1st round than be a 4 seed and play no game, right?

Doubt it, Cal doesn't help the RPI at all. Empty wins don't move the ledger.

This. UW is out right now. Oregon and OSU at home won't move the ledger at all. You can't say "2 in vegas will get us in for sure" until you know who you're playing in Vegas. I think it will take 2 wins in Vegas over teams above UW in the pecking order (Zona, USC, UCLA, ASU, Utah) for UW to get in. UW could win 3 if the bracket shakes out poorly for them (over Cal, OSU, and Stanford) and lose in the title game and still not get in.

UW has to win both this week and then hope they get their shot at one/two of those quadrant one wins (which is fucking stupid but that's another thread) in Vegas.

You might be wrong on Oregon. They sit at #75 right now. It's possible UW could beat them and Oregon still finish top 75 (depending on what UO does in the PXT). If they do that's a quadrant two win, which we desperately need (currently 1-4 in quadrant 2, 4-4 in quadrant 1).

Oregon St definitely isn't going to help.

I don't think there's any chance UW wins 3 in the conference tourney and doesn't go to the dance unless they get swept by the Oregons this week, if only because that's three more road/neutral wins. UW is out right now, they're not way out.

Ultimately I think we'll end up just on the wrong side of the bubble, but as @FreeChavez poonted out the zone should travel well in big, empty arenas. We might show very well in the PXT.

Gotta sweep this week first though.

BaldwinIV said:

a 22 win team with our resume gets in

HTH

I mean, they dropped you out of the last Bubble Watch completely (which in previous years has been the most accurate gauge of who is in who is out--way more accurate than Lunardi, who waits on what he's hearing from his moles inside the committee and changes his shit at the last minute to get as close to possible).

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/page/bubblewatch022318/strength-big-ten-not-numbers

But sure, tell yourself if you sweep the Oregon schools and then beat Oregon State and Stanford in Vegas you're a lock. The Pac 12 is really, really bad. It's not going to get more than 3 teams in. UW needs to do something to leap frog past 3 of ASU, USC, UCLA, and Utah.