The Lake is Hurting UW Theory - STOp

Saracen said:

Apologies in advance for a crazy long poast, it's in honor of the main perpetrator of this FS belief.

Can this whole "Jimmy Lake is damaged goods", "kids think he's leaving", etc. meme DIAFF?

There are lots of possibilities as to why the DB recruiting class has been slow to develop. But blaming Lake's perceived status is the kind of shit Doogman guys come up with because a) they don't really have any true insight b) it's easy to understand in a process that's very opaque, and c) to people who don't know any better it seems completely plausible.

Thus far the DB recruiting class hasn't been what was expected. But correlation isn't causation. There's zero proof it has anything to do with Lake's perceived status. Last year, everyone freaked the fuck out because he went radio silent for a week when there was a rumor that Cal wanted him. To many it certainly seemed like a real possibility and definitely bad optics. So wouldn't the DB recruits for that year get cold feet and change their mind? Nope, he still landed Molden, Taylor, and McKinney.

It didn't make a difference last year, but it's happening this year because why?

The whole concept is not really how it works recruiting wise. In general, coaches tend to be very careful to not be outwardly negative towards other programs or coaches. Not because they're especially moral, more because they worry that it makes them look bad and petty in the eyes of the kids and their parents. Guys don't want to get a rep as being a negative recruiter - it can hinder their chances of landing future kids as well as other jobs. At best some of these kids are possibly hearing some form of "hey, it's important that you have a coach that's not going to bolt on you" but it's highly unlikely that someone would call out a specific coach by name. And all the while Jimmy's certainly telling these kids "I'm not going anywhere".

Kids definitely bond with the recruiter and position coaches they click with, and that means they tend to believe and trust in them. You'd be hard pressed to find examples of kids getting cold feet over rumors of an assistant leaving. But tons of cases where kids went all in on a school even in spite of obvious signs the coach recruiting them might not be there for long, and sure enough that coach bolted shortly after signing. Look how many kids Demetrice Martin landed the last couple years despite constant rumors of him and/or Mora leaving. And then this year how many hung in with him, even after Mora was fired, right up until he was let go by Chip.

Most decent programs have coaches leaving on the reg or mentioned in rumors. Stanford's been losing 1-2 a year - their RB coach last year, OC this year - hasn't seemed to hinder their recruiting. Tee Martin is mentioned for just about every head coaching opening, often on National broadcasts. Yet somehow SC continues to land offensive players over other top tier schools. Fiesta Bowl opponent Pedo State replaced OC and RB coach and still has top 10 class. Hell, Brian Kelly cleared the deck last year replacing just about every assistant but ND shows no ill effects in landing kids.

There's a good chance this DB class won't end up being up to snuff. But it most likely would have a lot more to do with bigger picture UW recruiting issues than with rumors one coach may or may not be leaving soon.

FremontTroll said:

Tequilla said:

So you post a TL, DR post taking a shot at a theory I have but don’t have the balls to call me out by name ...

Enjoy your orange slices

Quite the God complex you have going there.

You didn't come up with some original theory here. Everyone has considered the idea and probably half the posters believe it.

Just as usual you took a minor point to its utmost extreme in advocating for Lake to go.