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The Lake is Hurting UW Theory - STOp
Saracen
Member Posts: 269
Apologies in advance for a crazy long poast, it's in honor of the main perpetrator of this FS belief.
Can this whole "Jimmy Lake is damaged goods", "kids think he's leaving", etc. meme DIAFF?
There are lots of possibilities as to why the DB recruiting class has been slow to develop. But blaming Lake's perceived status is the kind of shit Doogman guys come up with because a) they don't really have any true insight b) it's easy to understand in a process that's very opaque, and c) to people who don't know any better it seems completely plausible.
Thus far the DB recruiting class hasn't been what was expected. But correlation isn't causation. There's zero proof it has anything to do with Lake's perceived status. Last year, everyone freaked the fuck out because he went radio silent for a week when there was a rumor that Cal wanted him. To many it certainly seemed like a real possibility and definitely bad optics. So wouldn't the DB recruits for that year get cold feet and change their mind? Nope, he still landed Molden, Taylor, and McKinney.
It didn't make a difference last year, but it's happening this year because why?
The whole concept is not really how it works recruiting wise. In general, coaches tend to be very careful to not be outwardly negative towards other programs or coaches. Not because they're especially moral, more because they worry that it makes them look bad and petty in the eyes of the kids and their parents. Guys don't want to get a rep as being a negative recruiter - it can hinder their chances of landing future kids as well as other jobs. At best some of these kids are possibly hearing some form of "hey, it's important that you have a coach that's not going to bolt on you" but it's highly unlikely that someone would call out a specific coach by name. And all the while Jimmy's certainly telling these kids "I'm not going anywhere".
Kids definitely bond with the recruiter and position coaches they click with, and that means they tend to believe and trust in them. You'd be hard pressed to find examples of kids getting cold feet over rumors of an assistant leaving. But tons of cases where kids went all in on a school even in spite of obvious signs the coach recruiting them might not be there for long, and sure enough that coach bolted shortly after signing. Look how many kids Demetrice Martin landed the last couple years despite constant rumors of him and/or Mora leaving. And then this year how many hung in with him, even after Mora was fired, right up until he was let go by Chip.
Most decent programs have coaches leaving on the reg or mentioned in rumors. Stanford's been losing 1-2 a year - their RB coach last year, OC this year - hasn't seemed to hinder their recruiting. Tee Martin is mentioned for just about every head coaching opening, often on National broadcasts. Yet somehow SC continues to land offensive players over other top tier schools. Fiesta Bowl opponent Pedo State replaced OC and RB coach and still has top 10 class. Hell, Brian Kelly cleared the deck last year replacing just about every assistant but ND shows no ill effects in landing kids.
There's a good chance this DB class won't end up being up to snuff. But it most likely would have a lot more to do with bigger picture UW recruiting issues than with rumors one coach may or may not be leaving soon.
Can this whole "Jimmy Lake is damaged goods", "kids think he's leaving", etc. meme DIAFF?
There are lots of possibilities as to why the DB recruiting class has been slow to develop. But blaming Lake's perceived status is the kind of shit Doogman guys come up with because a) they don't really have any true insight b) it's easy to understand in a process that's very opaque, and c) to people who don't know any better it seems completely plausible.
Thus far the DB recruiting class hasn't been what was expected. But correlation isn't causation. There's zero proof it has anything to do with Lake's perceived status. Last year, everyone freaked the fuck out because he went radio silent for a week when there was a rumor that Cal wanted him. To many it certainly seemed like a real possibility and definitely bad optics. So wouldn't the DB recruits for that year get cold feet and change their mind? Nope, he still landed Molden, Taylor, and McKinney.
It didn't make a difference last year, but it's happening this year because why?
The whole concept is not really how it works recruiting wise. In general, coaches tend to be very careful to not be outwardly negative towards other programs or coaches. Not because they're especially moral, more because they worry that it makes them look bad and petty in the eyes of the kids and their parents. Guys don't want to get a rep as being a negative recruiter - it can hinder their chances of landing future kids as well as other jobs. At best some of these kids are possibly hearing some form of "hey, it's important that you have a coach that's not going to bolt on you" but it's highly unlikely that someone would call out a specific coach by name. And all the while Jimmy's certainly telling these kids "I'm not going anywhere".
Kids definitely bond with the recruiter and position coaches they click with, and that means they tend to believe and trust in them. You'd be hard pressed to find examples of kids getting cold feet over rumors of an assistant leaving. But tons of cases where kids went all in on a school even in spite of obvious signs the coach recruiting them might not be there for long, and sure enough that coach bolted shortly after signing. Look how many kids Demetrice Martin landed the last couple years despite constant rumors of him and/or Mora leaving. And then this year how many hung in with him, even after Mora was fired, right up until he was let go by Chip.
Most decent programs have coaches leaving on the reg or mentioned in rumors. Stanford's been losing 1-2 a year - their RB coach last year, OC this year - hasn't seemed to hinder their recruiting. Tee Martin is mentioned for just about every head coaching opening, often on National broadcasts. Yet somehow SC continues to land offensive players over other top tier schools. Fiesta Bowl opponent Pedo State replaced OC and RB coach and still has top 10 class. Hell, Brian Kelly cleared the deck last year replacing just about every assistant but ND shows no ill effects in landing kids.
There's a good chance this DB class won't end up being up to snuff. But it most likely would have a lot more to do with bigger picture UW recruiting issues than with rumors one coach may or may not be leaving soon.
Comments
Enjoy your orange slices
Demetrius Martin is a shit coach. UCLA landed those players. Not Meat. Chip Kelly quickly sent Meat down the road.
Explain how stellar DB recruiting classes grind to a halt. Poor development? Nope. Down year for the team? Nope. Looming sanctions? Nope? Head coach flirting with bigger jobs. Nope.
You didn't come up with some original theory here. Everyone has considered the idea and probably half the posters believe it.
Just as usual you took a minor point to its utmost extreme in advocating for Lake to go.
Everyone has considered it? Nope. Half believe it? Nope.
God complex? LOL
I expect Lake will get at least a decent DB class and possibly still a very good one, even with the handcuffs. But as I've said before, even if we got 0 DB recruits this year I'd still want him as our coach. I'd much rather have him developing our young DB's than somebody else.
Additionally, I think the sting of the negative recruiting is going to have a shelf life. It's highly unlikely that something that happened in January 2017 is going to affect kids in the 2019 recruiting class, and no chance it will affect them in 2020. Unless Lake has public dalliances with other schools annually this shit is going to blow over.
And in the meantime, we still have the best DB talent developer in the country for my money developing our kids (with freshman and redshirt freshman classes of three four stars).
We have plenty of young talent. We'll get more of it. And we have the best person to develop it.
Jimmy Lake is not hurting UW, and while he might have been damaged goods this specific recruiting season, he won't be going forward.
We may end up fighting for scraps in January. We shall see.
Why can't anyone on fucking earth process more than one fucking variable at a time.
IS JIMMY LAKE A GOOD COACH?!? YES HE FUCKING IS!!!
IS HIS LAME DUCK STATUS HURTING US IN RECRUITING?!?!? OBVIOUSLY!!!
So, let's do some fucking quick two variable analysis...
So - first thing we've got to figure out... how much better is Jimmy at coaching than Gerald Alexander (given the fact that Coach K and Coach Pete stay)?
Next, is that difference more than how much he is hurting us (relative to how well Alexander would do) by everyone knowing he's a lame duck (this extension won't do shit)?
That's really all you have to do but you stupid fucks seem too fucking stupid to do that simple fucking equation.
It's an open question. I'm not saying I wholly believe one way or another, but at least do the fucking math right.
KREIST.
DNC is right in that Lake’s coaching is superior and that’scobviously a massive consideration ...
But Dennis is spot on ... that’s how you have to look at the problem ...
2018 will be what it is ... and we can probably afford 1 BS class at DB ... but we can’t stack BS classes on top of each other
What are we paying Lake vs. what we would pay Alexander? Could that $$ be used on upgrades or for the 10th coach?
I fucking love Jimmy Lake and I don't want him to leave, but you guys are as bad as Doogs with this shit.
There is a reason the news of this extension came out, and came out through Softy. My hope is that the above happens in January and we are in a better place.