More fake poles
"The same people who did the phony election polls, and were so wrong, are now doing approval-rating polls. They are rigged just like before," Trump tweeted.
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/rigged-just-trump-dismisses-polls-142118348.html
In case Trump missed it, the polls were within 1% nationally. Guess facts don't matter again.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html
Comments
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He won
Fuck off -
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Looks like this country needs to tuffn' up
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his approval was up to almost 50% after winning.
I think everyone now understands the con job after seeing his cabinet appointments -
He isn't your President?2001400ex said: -
How many GOP were represented in the two polls?
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Trump isn't well liked by the GOP either.RaceBannon said:How many GOP were represented in the two polls?
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Answer the question2001400ex said:
Trump isn't well liked by the GOP either.RaceBannon said:How many GOP were represented in the two polls?
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You know the answer shitbreath.RaceBannon said:
Answer the question2001400ex said:
Trump isn't well liked by the GOP either.RaceBannon said:How many GOP were represented in the two polls?
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So the pole is shit like Trump said2001400ex said:
You know the answer shitbreath.RaceBannon said:
Answer the question2001400ex said:
Trump isn't well liked by the GOP either.RaceBannon said:How many GOP were represented in the two polls?
Thanks for playing -
RaceBannon said:
How many GOP were represented in the two polls?
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2017/images/01/16/trump.2.pdf
"METHODOLOGY
A total of 1,000 adults were interviewed by telephone nationwide by live interviewers calling both landline and cell phones.
Among the entire sample, 32% described themselves as Democrats, 24% described themselves as Republicans, and 44% described themselves as independents or members of another party." -
ExactlyUWhuskytskeet said:RaceBannon said:How many GOP were represented in the two polls?
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2017/images/01/16/trump.2.pdf
"METHODOLOGY
A total of 1,000 adults were interviewed by telephone nationwide by live interviewers calling both landline and cell phones.
Among the entire sample, 32% described themselves as Democrats, 24% described themselves as Republicans, and 44% described themselves as independents or members of another party."
And 81% of independents are democrats who are too embarrassed to admit it
The story isn't that by the time of the election the polls had tightened to fool the hondo's of the world, the story is the polls showing hillary up by double digits headed to an electoral college landslide for most of 2016
This is a similar method. -
correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't trump win independents?
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ExactlyRaceBannon said:UWhuskytskeet said:RaceBannon said:How many GOP were represented in the two polls?
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2017/images/01/16/trump.2.pdf
"METHODOLOGY
A total of 1,000 adults were interviewed by telephone nationwide by live interviewers calling both landline and cell phones.
Among the entire sample, 32% described themselves as Democrats, 24% described themselves as Republicans, and 44% described themselves as independents or members of another party."
And 81% of independents are democrats who are too embarrassed to admit it
The story isn't that by the time of the election the polls had tightened to fool the hondo's of the world, the story is the polls showing hillary up by double digits headed to an electoral college landslide for most of 2016
This is a similar method.
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Most polls were well within their margin of error by election day. Hillary won the popular vote by 2.1%.
I highlighted the ones that were outside of +-3%.
It looks to me that most polls overvalued the impact of Johnson and Stein. Both performed way under what they were polling. Both Clinton and Trump got a higher percentage than originally predicted.
Electoral college models definitely weren't accurate, but even then we are talking about a couple tenths of a percent in a handful of states.
Regardless, the 1000 person sample is pretty representative of how Americans currently identify with political parties. The latest Gallup poll has it as Rep:28%, Dem: 25%, Ind:44%. -
That's the real story from the polling error, but I imagine it's not easy to model scenarios where a candidate wins the EC while losing the popular vote by 2%.UWhuskytskeet said:
Electoral college models definitely weren't accurate, but even then we are talking about a couple tenths of a percent in a handful of states.
Nate Silver at least brought up the possibility. -
Approval polls are more of a popularity poll. People personally liked Obama based on polls but hated his policies. More people dislike trump as a person, of course his approval numbers will be down. Many people approved of Obama on the polls because they didn't want to be seen as racist by the pollsters.
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Almost accurate. Obama's approval numbers went up at the end because he looked great compared to the shitshow of candidates that lined up to replace him.greenblood said:Approval polls are more of a popularity poll. People personally liked Obama based on polls but hated his policies. More people dislike trump as a person, of course his approval numbers will be down. Many people approved of Obama on the polls because they didn't want to be seen as racist by the pollsters.
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------UWhuskytskeet said:
ExactlyRaceBannon said:UWhuskytskeet said:RaceBannon said:How many GOP were represented in the two polls?
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2017/images/01/16/trump.2.pdf
"METHODOLOGY
A total of 1,000 adults were interviewed by telephone nationwide by live interviewers calling both landline and cell phones.
Among the entire sample, 32% described themselves as Democrats, 24% described themselves as Republicans, and 44% described themselves as independents or members of another party."
And 81% of independents are democrats who are too embarrassed to admit it
The story isn't that by the time of the election the polls had tightened to fool the hondo's of the world, the story is the polls showing hillary up by double digits headed to an electoral college landslide for most of 2016
This is a similar method.
Most polls were well within their margin of error by election day. Hillary won the popular vote by 2.1%.
I highlighted the ones that were outside of +-3%.
It looks to me that most polls overvalued the impact of Johnson and Stein. Both performed way under what they were polling. Both Clinton and Trump got a higher percentage than originally predicted.
Electoral college models definitely weren't accurate, but even then we are talking about a couple tenths of a percent in a handful of states.
Regardless, the 1000 person sample is pretty representative of how Americans currently identify with political parties. The latest Gallup poll has it as Rep:28%, Dem: 25%, Ind:44%.
Hillary actually won the popular by more than 2.1% look at the total, she only won by 2.1 million there when the final tally was 2.9 million. So really the polls were closer than RCP notes. -
ExactlyRaceBannon said:UWhuskytskeet said:RaceBannon said:How many GOP were represented in the two polls?
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2017/images/01/16/trump.2.pdf
"METHODOLOGY
A total of 1,000 adults were interviewed by telephone nationwide by live interviewers calling both landline and cell phones.
Among the entire sample, 32% described themselves as Democrats, 24% described themselves as Republicans, and 44% described themselves as independents or members of another party."
And 81% of independents are democrats who are too embarrassed to admit it
The story isn't that by the time of the election the polls had tightened to fool the hondo's of the world, the story is the polls showing hillary up by double digits headed to an electoral college landslide for most of 2016
This is a similar method.
Why are you so pissed that your dude is not popular? It's not a good look for you Race. -
2.9 million votes = 2.1%2001400ex said:Hillary actually won the popular by more than 2.1% look at the total, she only won by 2.1 million there when the final tally was 2.9 million. So really the polls were closer than RCP notes.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2016
I'm sorry that you chose VAJ to be your math tutor. -
Its almost like I said that most polls tightened by election day to fool the hondos of the world. I just had no idea we had so many of them
The method on this opinion poll under represents GOP voters. -
There are definitely biases, and I'm sure there are examples of what you mentioned re: Obama. Much better to look at how the poll is trending over time than any one poll.greenblood said:Approval polls are more of a popularity poll. People personally liked Obama based on polls but hated his policies. More people dislike trump as a person, of course his approval numbers will be down. Many people approved of Obama on the polls because they didn't want to be seen as racist by the pollsters.
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Fuck me. I went full retard there.TierbsHsotBoobs said:
2.9 million votes = 2.1%2001400ex said:Hillary actually won the popular by more than 2.1% look at the total, she only won by 2.1 million there when the final tally was 2.9 million. So really the polls were closer than RCP notes.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2016
I'm sorry that you chose VAJ to be your math tutor. -
I agree completely on this one.RaceBannon said:Its almost like I said that most polls tightened by election day to fool the hondos of the world. I just had no idea we had so many of them
The method on this opinion poll under represents GOP voters.
It's subjective preseason polling bullshit anyway. -
So what you are saying is Trump's approval is 42% instead of 40%?RaceBannon said:Its almost like I said that most polls tightened by election day to fool the hondos of the world. I just had no idea we had so many of them
The method on this opinion poll under represents GOP voters.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/trump_favorableunfavorable-5493.html -
I'm saying your stupid.2001400ex said:
So what you are saying is Trump's approval is 42% instead of 40%?RaceBannon said:Its almost like I said that most polls tightened by election day to fool the hondos of the world. I just had no idea we had so many of them
The method on this opinion poll under represents GOP voters.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/trump_favorableunfavorable-5493.html
Not surprised you didn't get that, being stupid and all -
OK!RaceBannon said:
I'm saying your stupid.2001400ex said:
So what you are saying is Trump's approval is 42% instead of 40%?RaceBannon said:Its almost like I said that most polls tightened by election day to fool the hondos of the world. I just had no idea we had so many of them
The method on this opinion poll under represents GOP voters.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/trump_favorableunfavorable-5493.html
Not surprised you didn't get that, being stupid and all
