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"Unbiased" Peach Bowl Preview ...
Comments
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Spreadsheets and OOC SOS talk...
Yeah, instead of supporting my positions, I should just say things are the way I see them because I said so.
I thought Bama fans knew footbaw???
How on earth did Wazzou win 7 straight in the PAC12? Tell me more about how bad the SEC is... -
Earl Thomas says hiSecfans said:So, SECFans.com is my website, and I'm the person shown in the video of debate.
I always say I'm willing to accept negative criticism when it's paired with actual debate. So let's have it...what did we say about Budda that was wrong?
Here's what we said:
1) They don't play 180lb safeties in the NFL (they don't). And that he projects as a CB in the NFL (he does). He might be playing around 190 now -
Budda baker is not a safety. Our safety is Asian and the other is named Jojo.
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Earl Thomas, the 5'10" 202 pound safety?Alexis said:
Earl Thomas says hi
This is particularly interesting coming from someone who thinks we run Stanford's offense...Be honest, you haven't seen Bama play this year outside of the USC game.Tequilla said:The last comments tell me 1) that you don't understand what we do defensively
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You can't have it both ways. Pac-12 sucks, only 2 good teams and then at the same time use stats to your defense when you're saying why you'll beat UW. If the conference sucks, the stats are invalid. SC was a much better team later in the season. Hope that helps. Maybe review the stats. Your conference sucks except for a few teams this year just like the pac-12 so honestly what do the stats mean? You beat the teams you were supposed to beat and we did, too, except for SC. I could understand using stats to underpin your arguments if we were in the same conference but that's not the case. By the way, I have a comp sci degree and 4.0'd Number Theory and Statistics so I am an ultimate numbers nerd but in this case, quite frankly, the numbers are somewhat irrelevant. So what's Bama's plan going to be to stop the UW offense? What dimension are you going to focus on shutting down? Do you think you can shut down both the run and pass game? Do stats tell you that's the case?
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Yeah, instead of supporting my positions, I should just say things are the way I see them because I said so.Secfans said:Spreadsheets and OOC SOS talk...
I thought Bama fans knew footbaw???
How on earth did Wazzou win 7 straight in the PAC12? Tell me more about how bad the SEC is...
If you don't see the fundamental flaw in cfb stats, we can't fucking help you.
A cursory glance at the Cuogs schedule will answer your question for you.
The SEC and the Pac-12 both suck, except for Alabama and UW.
I hope this helps. -
I use opponent average stats. It completely neutralizes the "suck" factor. If you allow what your opponents do, on average, then you suck - regardless of how good or bad they do. Washington doesn't allow them to hit their averages, therefore does not suck. For someone who has a CS degree like I have, you sure are struggling with a basic concept. (That's sarcasm for levity btw...I'm just busting your balls)DoogieMcDoogerson said:You can't have it both ways. Pac-12 sucks, only 2 good teams and then at the same time use stats to your defense when you're saying why you'll beat UW. If the conference sucks, the stats are invalid. SC was a much better team later in the season. Hope that helps. Maybe review the stats. Your conference sucks except for a few teams this year just like the pac-12 so honestly what do the stats mean? You beat the teams you were supposed to beat and we did, too, except for SC. I could understand using stats to underpin your arguments if we were in the same conference but that's not the case. By the way, I have a comp sci degree and 4.0'd Number Theory and Statistics so I am an ultimate numbers nerd but in this case, quite frankly, the numbers are somewhat irrelevant. So what's Bama's plan going to be to stop the UW offense? What dimension are you going to focus on shutting down? Do you think you can shut down both the run and pass game? Do stats tell you that's the case?
SC was a much "better" team because they played a bunch of trash in their back half of their schedule. They were better under Darnold but they still have a crappy offensive line. Teams don't go from 52-6 to some world beaters within the same season. They still have holes in their non-Adoree secondary areas.
I've already said that UW's offensive skill players are the best collection Bama has faced this year. I've already conceded that the fast start, especially when paired with Alabama's slow start, is poised to give Alabama trouble.
Nobody runs on Alabama. Ever. You have two excellent backs that I assume will get more involved in space through the passing game than they will between the tackles. We're giving up 2 yards per carry this year and 40% of opponent average (you give up 82%). I imagine you'll have some success with a set of really good WRs against our patch work secondary. And I imagine you'll have some success matching up against our LB making his first start in replacement of a guy who blew his knee out against Florida.
You're arguing different things. I can think UW's offense can have success against Alabama while thinking that UW will struggle defending the Alabama run. These too are things that aren't mutually exclusive.
But seriously, congrats on the 4.0. I hated 100% of my theory math classes with a passion.
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Without reading it, this looks like a major cunt thread
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Ha, that's actually a level of self-reflection I can appreciate.ThomasFremont said:
The SEC and the Pac-12 both suck, except for Alabama and UW.
I hope this helps.
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This post is for our Bama visitor regarding UW and how they match/fit with what Bama does. Most of this stuff will be something that will probably be discussed at length when we record the next edition of the TSIO Podcast next week ... so if you don't like the length of this post, then FUCK OFF!!! and don't read anymore.
It will be important for UW to put themselves in positions where they always have a check down option(s) for Jake to get rid of the ball in a hurry. 4-5 yard gains against Alabama keep you ahead of the sticks ... that's important. LSU is actually a very important game to watch because it shows what happens when you have a good defense coupled with an offense that does not give Alabama EASY scoring opportunities. That's a good blue print for figuring out how you can stay competitive against Alabama. LSU's biggest problem in that game was that their offense and in particular the QB position was so inept that Alabama didn't respect the passing game much at all and was able to focus on the run game. UW is by far more balanced ... I don't think it's close to a stretch to say that they are the most balanced team Alabama has played all year by a long shot. That will cause some issues for Alabama.
Another thing I've noticed when watching some of the Ole Miss game is that Alabama almost always brings a slot corner or a MLB (or both) in a blitz situation against teams that spread them out. It not only helps to slow down any run situations that may come, but allows the secondary to squat on routes and not be concerned about plays down the field. Picking up those blitzes and giving a pocket will be critical because IF you can get situations where the WRs are 1 on 1 versus the Alabama secondary, you do have opportunities to create some chunk plays. And, the blitzes that Alabama runs really aren't that hard to figure out where they are coming from. They tend to tip the blitz location.
For UW, the LT, LG, and RT are good enough to compete at this level. In the USC game, the LG was coming back from an injury and I do question how healthy he was. We "hopefully" learned a few things from that game that can help us going forward. UW's 2 most basic formations that they run are 2 WR, 2 TE, 1 RB and 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB. Alabama is very strong when you get them in a position where they line up and are able to easily identify their responsibilities. A staple of Chris Petersen's offenses though are shifts and motions and I suspect that we'll try to use those situations to either out-flank or confuse the Alabama defense and get a bust in their assignments. UW has at least 3 TEs that they rotate into the game that all are very good run blockers with Darrell Daniels a potential option if they decide to use him in the passing game (which I think could work very well for UW in this game). I expect our line to be in positions where we will be chipping at least one of the edge rushers each time with the TE before releasing ... the TE releasing should quiet some of the middle blitzes from Alabama. I'd expect the C + RG to combo block a fair amount and our RBs often stay in to block so I'd expect that whichever guard isn't being helped with combo blocking will get focus from the RB.
Alabama is very well coached and very fundamentally sound (that shows up big time compared to other SEC teams and the mistakes that they tend to make play after play). It will be important to use some of that against them by going against tendencies from time to time. To slow Alabama down defensively, you have to get them in a position where they are thinking versus reacting and getting them to question what it is that they are seeing. IF Washington can be successful in this, then you have yourself a ball game.
Defensively, the 3 DTs for Washington (Gaines, Qualls, and Vea) are stout and will be a handful for the Alabama middle run game. As others have noted here, the secondary will be as good as any that Alabama has seen this year. Budda Baker is as good of a safety as there is in the country. The weakness to the defense is at the OLB positions. To slow Alabama's offense down, you have to make Hurts a passer. Kiffin tries to limit the exposure of Hurts by giving him a lot of quick throws and screens to get the ball out and into the hands of playmakers. We're very familiar with that with Kiffin and Sark being from the same tree. The quick WR screens will be hard pressed to work against Jones/King on the outside ... as good of a CB tandem as Alabama has seen all year and one of the best in the nation. Not only are they good in coverage, but they are excellent tacklers particularly in the quick WR screen game. The defense has gotten better since they moved Taylor Rapp in to play S and moved Budda more into a slot corner/rover type of role. IF and this is a big IF Washington can keep Hurts from beating them with his legs, then Washington should be able to limit Alabama's offense.
You've noted in a few different areas looking at yardage totals as a measure of the UW defense and specifically cited certain games and yardage totals. One thing you have to understand about the PAC is that teams here like to push play totals upwards of 80-100 on a game by game basis. It's important to look at things from a yard per play basis when looking at the running and passing games. And I also think it's important to look at things from a conference only or P5 only standpoint versus your entire schedule because the entire schedule can be skewed by a few overmatched opponents.
Washington in conference has given up 4 yards per carry in the run game. The games where UW has given up over 4 yards per carry are as follows:
Arizona: 43 for 308 (7.2 yards per carry)
Oregon: 43 for 230 (5.3 yards per carry)
Oregon St: 30 for 177 (5.9 yards per carry)
Utah: 47 for 213 (4.5 yards per carry)
The Arizona game is unique and probably what they do is most similar to what Auburn runs in that the QB is a massive running threat. 176 of those yards came from Arizona's QB ... which is why I said that the biggest obstacle in this game for the UW defense is stopping Hurts in the run game. There's a lot of read option that Arizona runs and if there's a big weakness to the UW defense at times it is that it doesn't like to change what it does to start games. They will adjust at halftime if needed and against both Arizona and Utah the adjustments made really slowed down the opposition offense ... the only plays given up in the 2nd half to Arizona were really a couple of broken plays that hit big. Utah's run game dramatically slowed down in the 2nd half as we brought an extra body into the box and forced Utah to beat us with their passing game. The Oregon game was 70-21 ... I don't read a lot into that. And as for Oregon St, 75 of the 177 yards came on a jet sweep in the 2nd half of a blowout game ... although it was against the #1 defense ... a defense that came out very flat in the 2nd half.
In the last 5 games (Cal, USC, ASU, Wazzu, and Colorado), the yards per rush have been 3.7, 3.1, 0.6, 2.7, and 2.8.
I think even most SEC fans would admit that the QB play in the PAC is usually better than that in the SEC top to bottom in the conference. In conference games, Washington is allowing a completion percentage of 56.5%, 5.8 yards per attempt, and 10.3 yards per completion. In contrast, Alabama's numbers are 52.5% completion percentage against, 6.2 yards per attempt, and 11.9 yards per completion. If there's an area where you could look at the stats and question UW's secondary, it'd be in the completion percentage number as 6 times in 10 conference games have the opposition completed over 60% of their passes. But this also goes to show why completion percentage can be a very misleading stat because when you go back and watch the tape of UW, what you see from them is that they have no problem letting you check it down whether it be screens, rollouts, etc. What they do though extremely well is rally up and tackle those opportunities. Very rarely do you beat a team by making 15+ play drives going 80 yards ... somewhere along the line you're going to get a holding penalty or something to back you behind the sticks or you're going to try to push a pass, etc. that turns into a turnover ... which Washington has averaged over 2 turnovers per game the entire season (they've generated multiple turnovers in every game this season except for the 0 turnovers caused at Utah - hence why that game was relatively close).
The defenses that are probably most similar to UW in the SEC are LSU and maybe Florida ... and the funny thing when you look at those games is that Hurts wasn't really an effective passer:
LSU: 10 of 19 for 107 yards
Florida: 11 of 20 for 138 yards
The keys for this game from a UW perspective:
1) Field Position: Limit turnovers and force Alabama to go a full field on a consistent basis
2) Turnover Margin: +2 or better will give UW the chance to be in the game in the 4th quarter
3) Bring the Alabama defense out of its comfort zone by emphasizing motion and shifts
4) Contain Hurts in the running game and force him to win with his arm
5) Special Teams: Must play at least even here
I definitely think that UW can stay within 2 TDs in this game. The computer models are saying that UW has about a 1 in 3 shot to win the game ... yet the money line in Vegas is UW +575 or thereabouts. That's a lot of value. The public perception is that Alabama is so elite that nobody is in their class ... my perception is that the SEC was a really bad league this year. Alabama is rightly the favorite ... they should be. But this will be a game. -
It had such promise. I was disappointed to see the people here most capable of facts choosing to instead abstain from directly rebutting.haie said:Without reading it, this looks like a major cunt thread
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Eh. How teams compare against a season full of unit averages is pretty telling. I'm at least supporting my positions with more than 'because I like UW so I really want it to be true'Secfans said:Stats are for losers. It's like revenge of the nerds in here.
I just rolled over to your bama board. You guys are some cocky fucks.
Yeah, y'all are a big ol sack of humble over here. Wait...Does this guy realize 13 teams in the SEC lost at least four games this year? It's not vastly superior to anything anymore (it never was).
Yeah, nothing says you're a great conference like having a couple of teams who beat everyone, and the entire rest of the conference is trash. And those teams who beat everyone in conference couldn't beat anyone out of conference. Name your big OOC win this year, hell name a good team the PAC12 played competitively out of conference (Eastern Washington loss doesn't count). UCLA's OT loss to TAMU was the best win you had. But Rosen barely played the conf slate this year...
Your South champion got jail sexed by Michigan. Your South runner up lost 52-6 to us. Your best OOC win was Idaho, and your North runner up lost to EWU, Boise, and now Minnesota.
Kentucky has a better OOC win than anyone in the PAC12.I don't think anyone that brags about supported Browning for Heisman should be popping off about incorrect statements.
You missed the point of why I made that comment...like entirely.
Jail sexed is a good term. Kudos. -
Did everyone here fucking forget how to use quote? ffs
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The new fish broke itGladstone said:Did everyone here fucking forget how to use quote? ffs
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Respect to @Secfans for coming here and discussing ... this is the place where the most ardent and knowledgeable Husky fans reside ... and most here know what it's like to be on top, puff out our chests, and look down at most of the other programs.
First, let's get the Budda Baker stuff out of the way. He's 5'10" and 192 pounds (http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/3127287/budda-baker) ... no question that to play at the next level, he probably needs to put on another 10-15 pounds (realistically the only reason for him to come to school is to put that weight on before going pro) ... We're pretty lucky here in Seattle to see an elite all-time safety in Earl Thomas ... Thomas is insanely reactive and quick with an instinct for the game that you just can't teach ... and that's exactly how Budda Baker is. Thomas is 5'10" and 202 pounds ... so not really that much of a difference to Budda when you think about it. Take a quick look at the NFL Combine scouting report for Earl Thomas - it sounds just like the description that you made on Budda (http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/Earl-Thomas?id=496745).
What I find the most confusing when listening to those who do not watch the University of Washington day in and day out is that they don't really understand how the defense is set up and designed to operate. By and large, what UW plays is essentially a hybrid 3-4 or 4-3 that actually can morph into a 2-2-2-5 formation (2 DL, 2 OLBs, 2 ILBs, 5 DBs) and what makes it unique is that the 2 OLBs don't always rush hard. The entire defense is designed to contain offenses and limit their ability to make big plays. The strength in the middle takes away the balance of the middle runs and the ends are designed to keep contain and force everything back into the middle. The idea being that if teams are being asked to have 10 or 15 plays to navigate the length of the field on the defense, there is bound to be a mistake whether it is a holding penalty, an incompletion, etc. With the strength of the defense in the secondary once the opposition gets behind the chains or scoreboard, the defense basically forces you to throw into the teeth of the defense which has then led into the turnovers.
As it pertains to the game against Alabama, there are some legit concerns that I have ... but I think the basic generic argument that comes out of the SEC is that when non-SEC teams play SEC teams they clearly have no chance because nobody else has the combination of size, speed, strength, etc. that the SEC has. In essence, that's the crux of the argument on Budda right? He's not 6'3" and 225 pounds so therefore he's a nice little player but would never be able to be successful in the SEC. So let's look at the Washington DTs and see how they rate:
Elijah Qualls: He's a 6'1" and 320 pound (conservatively) redshirt junior ... he's stout at the point of attack and athletic enough to run in space as he'll play the BUCK position for us from time to time (UW's most strategic of pass rushing OLB positions). Currently he's rated as the #3 DT on Mel Kiper's draft listings and #7 on the rankings of CBS Sports (2nd round pick).
Greg Gaines: He's a 6'1" and 320 pound redshirt sophomore ... this is going to be a recurring theme here as he's very stout at the point of attack and while probably not as quick as Qualls, definitely stronger and gets off his blocks a little better creating plays in the backfield. Right now he's the #7 listed DT in the 2019 NFL Draft (NFL Draft Scout) and my guess is that he'll end up ranking higher than that in the end.
Vita Vea: He's a 6'4" and 330 pound redshirt sophomore ... of the 3 DTs, he's got the most upside of them all as while he's still raw, he's got all the elements you want out of an elite DT. He's the #2 listed DT in the 2019 NFL Draft (NFL Draft Scout) and CBS has him as the #4 rated DT in the 2017 NFL Draft.
To me, that's a DT rotation that any SEC school would be very happy to be rotating through.
When I watch Alabama on offense and specifically tied to the run game, it's largely a zone blocking scheme and so much of their success is driven by their ability to re-establish the LOS 2-3 yards down the field. If there's a weakness of the Alabama OL, it would be in the middle (similar to Washington) and that's where I would look at when trying to figure out how the offensive game for Alabama plays out. At MINIMUM, Alabama will be seeing at least 2 of 3 of Qualls, Gaines, and Vea on the field at the same time with 2 of those 3 being in a position where they are occupying the middle of the Alabama OL. I think it will be very difficult for Alabama in a zone blocking scheme to re-establish the middle of the LOS 2-3 yards down the field. You noted the Utah game as an example of teams that ran downhill on Washington. While I'd debate on how effective that truly was, what I would point out is that if you watch Utah you'll find that they run the ball a lot with pulling OL into the hole. That's not typically what I see when I watch Alabama.
Where I have concern at how Alabama CAN attack the UW defense is running on the edge with either the jet sweeps or Hurts either on designed runs or scrambling. I expect that you'll see Washington rush in a manner that looks to contain Hurts in the pocket and at times probably leave those that aren't really used to watching UW play or our defensive philosophy confused at why we really aren't trying to initiate a pass rush ... the whole thing will be designed to keep Hurts from scrambling and trying to force him to throw in tight windows out of rhythm.
One last thing to this primary post is that you have to go back and look at how Washington tackles. The argument for why Alabama's run game can't be stopped is because they are just bigger and faster. If you're going to tackle a bigger man, how do you do that? You do it by being fundamentally sound and tackle low. That's exactly how Washington tackles and why they generally don't miss many tackles (outside of P-SALM who absolutely sucks - why the outside run scares the shit out of me). It's an argument that I've heard time and time before but it gets debunked generally fairly easily ... go back to the Rose Bowl from 2011 between TCU and Wisconsin ... same arguments were used for Wisconsin running all over TCU because they were just flat out bigger and TCU would never be able to compete running their 4-2-5 defense. They did just fine.
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You have to take with a grain of salt the stats in a game where you won 70-21 don't you think? I'm not going to pretend to know the inner workings of what happened down in Eugene this year ... just fine with me that they sucked this year. Freeman had been battling injuries as early as their game with Nebraska this year. Trying to make sense of stats in a rivalry game where Oregon probably brought everything that they had left to the table and then comparing to the next 2 weeks when they knew for sure that the season was over? That's fine I guess ... but it's where stats and real life offer differing realities to me.Secfans said:
Eh, Freeman had 4.5 YPC against you, and the next week had 0.7 YPC against Cal, then 2.2 YPC against Arizona St. Christian McCaffery and Stanford play in a pretty horrendous offense this year (81st in scoring). They run it OK but they're nothing special.DoogieMcDoogerson said:Safeties really aren't that critical to stop the run. If we are tackling your RB with our safety frequently, we're already in trouble. Our strategy will be to load the box with our LBs and our DL ( which by the way is very talented ) and stop the run. Can your QB win the game with his arm? SC gave us trouble because 1) We played a bad game and 2) they were very balanced. Stopping the run was not enough. Might be against bama as I think your QB will make mistakes and try to run/scramble That's where the good secondary comes in and Budda's coverage skills. This is actually, all things considered, a pretty good matchup for us. We completely shut down Royce Freeman and Christian McCaffery. This is a hard-hitting defense.
Dawgs win 21-17
Jalen has struggled all season throwing it consistently. But he won't have to win it with his arm. He'll have to minimize turnovers. He doesn't need some 300 yard passing game with 4 TDs for Alabama to win. Washington can win this game, but they'll need 35+ to do it.
Stanford is an interesting beast this year for a couple of reasons. First, they had some QB issues. Second, McCaffrey missed a few games during the middle of the year where the offense was even more crippled. Even with that, Stanford was 5th in the PAC running for 5.3 yards per carry in conference games and despite a lot of stats that would put them as being very middle of the conference they still ended up 6-3 in conference and 9-3 for the season. This is also where I think you have to factor when/where the game was in the season when evaluating a game. Stanford started getting offensive injuries during/after the game they played with Washington ... talking about the defensive injuries that Stanford had going into that game and how Washington exploited that I would buy that argument. But the argument that I have been hearing leading into this game is that Washington can't stop a heavy run game that leans on you. Stanford had 30 carries for 29 yards in that game. I'd say that that's fairly well stopped.
As for Hurts, the key for UW will be keeping him in the pocket and throwing routes down the field by taking away the short screens, etc. that both Kiffie and Sark like to run. As I've watched Alabama games, so much of what Alabama likes to do in the passing game is getting the ball out of the hands of Hurts quickly into the hands of Stewart and Ridley in favorable situations on the outside while limiting the risk of Hurts to make bad decisions. Alabama's able to do a lot of this by basically allowing the defense to dictate to them what they are giving up between the middle run and covering the outside. Another trait I've noticed in watching SEC games this year is how fundamentally sound some of the defenses are in their over pursuit ... which allows Alabama to easily exploit misdirection. Where Washington will be able to cause some problems for Alabama in this regard is because the basis of their defense largely is to keep the play in front of them and they are so disciplined that trying to get them to overcommit in pursuit generally doesn't happen.
Lastly, I think the idea of thinking that Washington needs to score 35+ to win is going the wrong direction. Washington's defense is going to be right up there with probably LSU as the best defense that Alabama has seen all year. Alabama's propensity to turn the ball over will be one of the handful of deciding factors in the game. Washington's MO the entire season has been to force the opposition to go long fields and taking advantage of opportunities. In this game, it will be all about finding ways to get first downs and when there are opportunities in the passing game to connect of them. But if I was the OC I'm managing this game with the number that I need to get to in the back of my mind somewhere in the 24-27 range with the expectation that whether through special teams or a defensive turnover that I'm going to get some help on getting there. The most important thing offensively will be to limit the turnovers and force Alabama's offense to have to beat Washington's defense. If this game turns into a shootout, Washington loses. There's too much talent on Alabama's defense to expect the game to get up into the high 30's or low 40's. -
I would highly recommend watching the USC vs Washington game from 2015 to get an idea of how a Kiffin/Sark called game against Washington can go horribly wrong. And here's the funny thing ... USC controlled the game on the ground with 39 carries for 190 yards ...Secfans said:
Actually I think Kiffin hates doing what works. He's obsessed with proving that he can win throwing it 25 times in the first half with a guy who is still learning how to read a defense.RaceBannon said:Thankfully Saban hates his best 240 pound running back. #9 could win a Heisman someday
But Bo Scarborough isn't Alabama's best back. Damien Harris is. 15.3 YPC against USC, 7.5 YPC on the season. He just doesn't get a lot of hype for some reason.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UbPS0iTRQII (full game)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RdUGiiiE6BU (one hour)
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Let's look at the good running teams that you point out ... not even sure that I agree with what you call good running teams (my guess is that you looked at total yards) when looking at conference games the teams that you singled out ranked as follows in terms of yards per carry in conference:Secfans said:
Actually, you allow 82% of opponent averages rushing the ball. Which is good, it's not elite. But outside of Stanford, who was down two linemen, the decent running teams you faced (Arizona, Utah, Oregon, Oregon St) all hit around their averages (or exceeded them).
Alabama will run for 200+ and exceed 5 YPC.
Again, the game isn't unwinnable for Washington, but you're arguing the wrong thing here. The match up against Alabama's run game isn't good for you. Your offensive skill players against basically anyone is.
Arizona: 4th at 5.52 yards per carry
Utah: 7th at 5.02 yards per carry
Oregon: 6th at 5.02 yards per carry
Oregon St: 3rd at 5.63 yards per carry
The top 5 was Washington, USC (conveniently left out that game), Oregon St, Arizona, and Stanford.
Arizona had a great day against the UW defense running the ball getting 308 yards on 43 carries (7.2 yards per carry). The balance of the run game came from Arizona's QB Brandon Dawkins who had 13 carries for 176 yards including a Dawkins 79 yard TD run off a read option play and 56 yard run off of a pass/scramble that set up another TD. While I realize that you can cherry pick stats all that you want, the reality is that 2 carries amounted to 135 of their 308 rushing yards. Take those 2 carries away and you're looking at 173 yards on 41 carries (4.2 yards per carry average). Obviously those 2 plays happened and between those 2 plays/TDs, another broken play long completion leading to another TD drive, and a sub-standard day for the offense in terms of its execution where they had the ball in plus-territory 5 different times where they came away with zero points, you get a game that in hindsight many look back and go "wow, I can't believe that Washington barely beat Arizona."
Utah's another example of where I think you have to go back and really look at how the game played out to understand in full. Utah did have 213 yards for the game on the ground, on 47 carries. At 4.5 yards per carry, that's a half yard behind what they averaged on the season. Washington made some adjustments at half to slow Joe Williams and really the game plan was designed to take advantage of making an inaccurate Troy Williams to have to make plays against Washington's secondary. Williams went 14 for 33 on the day for 163.
I've talked about Oregon in another post ... but the final score for the game was 70-21 and 35-7 at half with UW up 56-14 in the 3rd quarter. I'm not sure that I really care about the stats that came up at the end of the game.
As for Oregon St., again, this is another game with a lopsided score with a 41-17 final score and 31-0 at half, and 41-10 after the 3rd quarter. For the game, Oregon St had 30 carries for 177 yards ... which on the surface looks like a massive problem stopping the run. Oregon St's first TD in the 2nd half was a 75 yard TD run off of the jet sweep. So again, taking the outlier out of the picture you're looking at 29 carries for 102 yards ... I think that's fairly reasonable.
Part of the reason that you have to take Washington's stats to a certain degree with a grain of salt is that in any game where the score started getting out of hand, there was a lot of depth that got played starting as early as the 3rd quarter. It's one of the reasons why so many have pointed to Washington's "fast starts" and their 1st half scoring margin this year instead of looking at the 2nd half margin. If you look at the 2nd half margin, it's easy to look at the stats and come to the wrong conclusion by saying that UW isn't a 2nd half team. -
Thanks @Tequilla for the wanking, I mean sleeping material.
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@Tequilla has found his soulmate.
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This is where things get a little bit "complicated" to me ...Secfans said:
Yeah, nothing says you're a great conference like having a couple of teams who beat everyone, and the entire rest of the conference is trash. And those teams who beat everyone in conference couldn't beat anyone out of conference. Name your big OOC win this year, hell name a good team the PAC12 played competitively out of conference (Eastern Washington loss doesn't count). UCLA's OT loss to TAMU was the best win you had. But Rosen barely played the conf slate this year...
Your South champion got jail sexed by Michigan. Your South runner up lost 52-6 to us. Your best OOC win was Idaho, and your North runner up lost to EWU, Boise, and now Minnesota.
It's easy to say that Washington didn't schedule anybody in the non-conference. We schedule a P5 in Rutgers that fell on their face between the timing of the schedule and when the game took place. We had a home/home also scheduled with Colorado that had to be scrapped when Colorado came into the PAC ... that game got replaced by Portland St (that's Sarkisian scheduling for you). Then we played a Sun Belt team (Idaho) ... I don't think SEC teams will be critical of scheduling Fun Belt teams.
What about the rest of the conference?
USC got waxed by Alabama early ... they grew a lot as the year went on and the upgrade from Browne to Darnold was vast. Other non-conference games were Utah State and Notre Dame ... not USC's fault that Notre Dame sucked this year.
Stanford beat a fairly decent Kansas St team early, then won at Notre Dame, before finishing the year against Rice.
Utah beat BYU in a rivalry game ... also played I believe Fresno St and Southern Utah or whatever as a throw away game.
ASU beat Texas Tech ... Cal beat Texas and lost to San Diego St on the road.
The Cougs are the Cougs.
Oregon lost at Nebraska ... who at one point everybody wanted to crown ... that was one of the most poorly played games I had seen all year.
UCLA was a disaster ... also won at BYU. The TAMU game is actually interesting. UCLA really sucked ... and that wasn't just when Rosen left. But they played TAMU roughly even even though TAMU held the lead through most of the game.
So here's the thing with the Colorado vs Michigan game ... Colorado lost their starting QB in the 2nd half (while down 31-28 in the 3rd quarter) and that turned the game decidedly to Michigan afterwards as they won the remaining portion of the game 14-0 to win 45-28. Here's the thing, Colorado's offense sucks. I mean it really sucks. But up to the injury to Sefo, Colorado was right in that game. Not sure I'd say that they got jail sexed in that game ... that's a bit of a stretch. -
I've never claimed that Alabama runs the Stanford offense ...Secfans said:This is particularly interesting coming from someone who thinks we run Stanford's offense...Be honest, you haven't seen Bama play this year outside of the USC game.
In the lead up to this game and in preparation for the TSIO podcast, I focused primarily on the games where Alabama was tested the most on the year and the games that would have thoroughly had their attention ... Ole Miss and LSU. I also watched the Florida game until I got so sick and tired of watching Florida's QB miss WR's by 3-5 yards leading to easy turnovers and their defense be so completely undisciplined that it wasn't worth watching any longer.
Ole Miss was a mess defensively and allowed Alabama to basically dictate whatever they wanted to do on offense. What I found watching the Ole Miss game with respect to Alabama's defense (and definitely confirmed when watching the LSU game) is that Alabama's MO defensively against QBs that they respect on teams that can spread them out is to attack ... they have a strong tendency to bring their slot corner and/or at least 1 MLB in a blitz while they play a lot of man under and either shade their single safety over the top for help on anything deep or sitting at or around the sticks in a robber position. In fact, one thing that really stood out to me watching both tapes was how often (even on incompletions) Alabama is in a position where on a deep throw they are 1 on 1 with their CB against the WR in coverage without S help. In contrast, when watching Washington, you'll almost never see that pass thrown against the Washington D because there is almost always S help over the top.
In the LSU game, it showed how me how quickly Alabama could go conservative on offense to protect Hurts against a good defense that could create turnovers as so much of the offense for most of the game was either the middle run game or quick throws to the perimeter. LSU's defense got tired by being on the field so much and once Hurts got unleashed in the run game that really changed the dynamic as he was able to create the decided big play. Offensively, LSU was pretty much an easy stop for the Alabama defense because they were able to take away the run and force the piss poor QB to beat them with his arm. However, early in the game on a 3rd and long situation, LSU was able to complete a shot down the field against 1 on 1 coverage as Alabama again stayed true to their attacking tendencies and never wanting to give up anything by sitting on the 1st down marker and taking their chances with the deep throws.
I do expect that defensively Alabama will not change what it is that they do. They will continue to attack and sitting on the short and intermediate routes. Washington will be the most capable offense that they've played all year ... probably a step behind Clemson's offense when both are operating at their heights. I expect that Ross will face some form of bracket coverage with some form of additional attention focused in his direction. That will leave some opportunities for Washington to create 1 on 1 situations over the rest of the field and to potentially find openings in areas where Ross clears out an area and somebody comes in behind him.
Honestly, this entire game comes down to whether Washington's OL can protect and carve just enough holes in the run game to at least keep Alabama honest. If Washington can keep Alabama off balance just enough there will be some opportunities to get the score into the 20+ range that they need to get to to win the game. -
It's more the fact that I'm just a tad fed up with the general feeling coming out of SEC land that because Alabama killed USC and USC beat Washington that Washington has no business being in this game AND gives Alabama nothing to really worry about (not saying SECFans is one of those).AlCzervik said:@Tequilla has found his soulmate.
Without patting the TSIO Podcast on the back too much, it's one of the reasons I feel like we have a really good pod is because we have a really good pulse on this team and the conference as a whole. When we said going into the PAC Title Game that there wasn't a lot of concern about what Colorado would be able to do, we came to that conclusion based on watching the games in detail and knowing the strengths/weaknesses of what each team did.
Alabama is obviously a different beast. But they are far from invincible. The SEC as a whole really sucked this year. And so while the stat lines for Alabama look good (particularly defensively), there has been evidence that there are areas where you can get after their defense ... albeit there haven't been any examples of complete teams that have been able to play 4 quarters with Alabama on both sides of the ball. I don't know if Washington is one of those teams ... I do know that it's closer than any of Alabama's first 13 opponents. -
goodness gracious we need character limits on this forum
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great post tho with this one. Utah was really the only game that UW got completely gashed on the ground.Tequilla said:
Let's look at the good running teams that you point out ... not even sure that I agree with what you call good running teams (my guess is that you looked at total yards) when looking at conference games the teams that you singled out ranked as follows in terms of yards per carry in conference:Secfans said:
Actually, you allow 82% of opponent averages rushing the ball. Which is good, it's not elite. But outside of Stanford, who was down two linemen, the decent running teams you faced (Arizona, Utah, Oregon, Oregon St) all hit around their averages (or exceeded them).
Alabama will run for 200+ and exceed 5 YPC.
Again, the game isn't unwinnable for Washington, but you're arguing the wrong thing here. The match up against Alabama's run game isn't good for you. Your offensive skill players against basically anyone is.
Arizona: 4th at 5.52 yards per carry
Utah: 7th at 5.02 yards per carry
Oregon: 6th at 5.02 yards per carry
Oregon St: 3rd at 5.63 yards per carry
The top 5 was Washington, USC (conveniently left out that game), Oregon St, Arizona, and Stanford.
Arizona had a great day against the UW defense running the ball getting 308 yards on 43 carries (7.2 yards per carry). The balance of the run game came from Arizona's QB Brandon Dawkins who had 13 carries for 176 yards including a Dawkins 79 yard TD run off a read option play and 56 yard run off of a pass/scramble that set up another TD. While I realize that you can cherry pick stats all that you want, the reality is that 2 carries amounted to 135 of their 308 rushing yards. Take those 2 carries away and you're looking at 173 yards on 41 carries (4.2 yards per carry average). Obviously those 2 plays happened and between those 2 plays/TDs, another broken play long completion leading to another TD drive, and a sub-standard day for the offense in terms of its execution where they had the ball in plus-territory 5 different times where they came away with zero points, you get a game that in hindsight many look back and go "wow, I can't believe that Washington barely beat Arizona."
Utah's another example of where I think you have to go back and really look at how the game played out to understand in full. Utah did have 213 yards for the game on the ground, on 47 carries. At 4.5 yards per carry, that's a half yard behind what they averaged on the season. Washington made some adjustments at half to slow Joe Williams and really the game plan was designed to take advantage of making an inaccurate Troy Williams to have to make plays against Washington's secondary. Williams went 14 for 33 on the day for 163.
I've talked about Oregon in another post ... but the final score for the game was 70-21 and 35-7 at half with UW up 56-14 in the 3rd quarter. I'm not sure that I really care about the stats that came up at the end of the game.
As for Oregon St., again, this is another game with a lopsided score with a 41-17 final score and 31-0 at half, and 41-10 after the 3rd quarter. For the game, Oregon St had 30 carries for 177 yards ... which on the surface looks like a massive problem stopping the run. Oregon St's first TD in the 2nd half was a 75 yard TD run off of the jet sweep. So again, taking the outlier out of the picture you're looking at 29 carries for 102 yards ... I think that's fairly reasonable.
Part of the reason that you have to take Washington's stats to a certain degree with a grain of salt is that in any game where the score started getting out of hand, there was a lot of depth that got played starting as early as the 3rd quarter. It's one of the reasons why so many have pointed to Washington's "fast starts" and their 1st half scoring margin this year instead of looking at the 2nd half margin. If you look at the 2nd half margin, it's easy to look at the stats and come to the wrong conclusion by saying that UW isn't a 2nd half team.
I expect Bama to run the ball about as well as USC did on (us?)
effective, but far from dominant. UW's defensive front actually improved against the run as the season went along despite losing mathis and victor -
Actually, you allow 82% of opponent averages rushing the ball. Which is good, it's not elite. But outside of Stanford, who was down two linemen, the decent running teams you faced (Arizona, Utah, Oregon, Oregon St) all hit around their averages (or exceeded them).Secfans said:We will stop the run. yes, I understand that is a profound statement for you to comprehend but it's going to come down to QB play if you want to score points on offense.
Alabama will run for 200+ and exceed 5 YPC.
Again, the game isn't unwinnable for Washington, but you're arguing the wrong thing here. The match up against Alabama's run game isn't good for you. Your offensive skill players against basically anyone is.
And last year against Stanford? This team has the "ability" to play very large up front, it has since Shaq Thompson lined up at Safety -
The ultimate payoff for watching that entire video was the cohost named Husky predicting a 34-17 final score.
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SECfans won this thread rather easily, say 34-17?
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Baker as a junior is 5-10, 192. Thomas as a senior in 2009 was 5-10, 197.Secfans said:
Earl Thomas, the 5'10" 202 pound safety?Alexis said:
Earl Thomas says hi
This is particularly interesting coming from someone who thinks we run Stanford's offense...Be honest, you haven't seen Bama play this year outside of the USC game.Tequilla said:The last comments tell me 1) that you don't understand what we do defensively
It's a legit comparison and I think you're smart enough to understand that players put on weight going from college to the NFL.
Otherwise, stay. I'm enjoying our newfound Alabama friends. I'd enjoy them more if they looked like this:
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CFetters_Nacho_Lover said:
Baker as a junior is 5-10, 192. Thomas as a senior in 2009 was 5-10, 197.Secfans said:
Earl Thomas, the 5'10" 202 pound safety?Alexis said:
Earl Thomas says hi
This is particularly interesting coming from someone who thinks we run Stanford's offense...Be honest, you haven't seen Bama play this year outside of the USC game.Tequilla said:The last comments tell me 1) that you don't understand what we do defensively
It's a legit comparison and I think you're smart enough to understand that players put on weight going from college to the NFL.
Otherwise, stay. I'm enjoying our newfound Alabama friends. I'd enjoy them more if they looked like this:
You mean adults actually put on weight? What a fucking conceptCFetters_Nacho_Lover said:
Baker as a junior is 5-10, 192. Thomas as a senior in 2009 was 5-10, 197.Secfans said:
Earl Thomas, the 5'10" 202 pound safety?Alexis said:
Earl Thomas says hi
This is particularly interesting coming from someone who thinks we run Stanford's offense...Be honest, you haven't seen Bama play this year outside of the USC game.Tequilla said:The last comments tell me 1) that you don't understand what we do defensively
It's a legit comparison and I think you're smart enough to understand that players put on weight going from college to the NFL.
Otherwise, stay. I'm enjoying our newfound Alabama friends. I'd enjoy them more if they looked like this:
