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We still have a 47% chance

YellowSnowYellowSnow Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 33,990
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Swaye's Wigwam
in Hardcore Husky Board
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-college-football-predictions/
Not to fear fellow Doogs. Nate Silver's super computer still gives us a 47% chance to make the CFP and 8% at the Natty. Trump's only at 29%.
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    doogsinparadisedoogsinparadise Member Posts: 9,320
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    What do the Trump doogs say now?
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    AIRWOLFAIRWOLF Member Posts: 1,840
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    Well, based on their model if the Huskies, A&M and Louisville all win out the Huskies have a >99% of making the playoff.

    That ought to reassure me, but I think that is unrealistically high. Especially since the Committee's criteria are pretty opaque.

    So while it is a fun little thing to play with, I don't think its conclusions are necessarily right.
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    DooglesDoogles Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 12,476
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    I'm pretty sure the actual mathematical percentage of us winning out is like 23%.
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    AIRWOLFAIRWOLF Member Posts: 1,840
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    Doogles said:

    I'm pretty sure the actual mathematical percentage of us winning out is like 23%.

    Depends totally on how you assess the strength of the Huskies vs. each team.

    S&P+ now has us at 54% to go 12-0 in the regular season.
    ESPN FPI has it at 30%, but that includes winning the Conference Championship game too, I think.
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