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Welcome to the Hardcore Husky Forums. Folks who are well-known in Cyberland and not that dumb.

We still have a 47% chance

YellowSnowYellowSnow Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 36,454 Founders Club
in Hardcore Husky Board
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-college-football-predictions/
Not to fear fellow Doogs. Nate Silver's super computer still gives us a 47% chance to make the CFP and 8% at the Natty. Trump's only at 29%.
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Comments

  • doogsinparadisedoogsinparadise Member Posts: 9,320
    What do the Trump doogs say now?
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  • AIRWOLFAIRWOLF Member Posts: 1,840
    Well, based on their model if the Huskies, A&M and Louisville all win out the Huskies have a >99% of making the playoff.

    That ought to reassure me, but I think that is unrealistically high. Especially since the Committee's criteria are pretty opaque.

    So while it is a fun little thing to play with, I don't think its conclusions are necessarily right.
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  • DooglesDoogles Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 12,643 Founders Club
    I'm pretty sure the actual mathematical percentage of us winning out is like 23%.
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  • AIRWOLFAIRWOLF Member Posts: 1,840
    Doogles said:

    I'm pretty sure the actual mathematical percentage of us winning out is like 23%.

    Depends totally on how you assess the strength of the Huskies vs. each team.

    S&P+ now has us at 54% to go 12-0 in the regular season.
    ESPN FPI has it at 30%, but that includes winning the Conference Championship game too, I think.
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