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M's winter / draft talk

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  • TequillaTequilla Member Posts: 19,800
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    dhdawg said:

    Tequilla said:

    Napoli is almost certainly staying in Cleveland if they make him a legit offer ... I love Napoli and would definitely endorse the move IF he happened to hit the market.

    My point on Cruz is that I'd love to find some way to get a better backup option at 1B in case Vogelbach goes to absolute shit and can't hack it. IF Cruz can pick up 1B, it provides some protection there. Taking my thoughts of how you try to fool proof your roster, that'd be the way to cover up the uncertainty at 1B. Bringing back Dae Ho there doesn't do that because IF Vogelbach isn't ready for the bigs then you have a massive hole at 1B because Dae Ho can't hit any righty worth a shit or a lefty that has plus stuff.

    I'm with you in that I'd love to see the Mariners move on from Guti but they won't because they are the Mariners. In fairness, as a platoon righty that gets maybe 150-200 ABs Guti is a worthwhile player. But he's got to be your 5th OF IMO because he's not a guy that you can throw in there 18 of 22 days and expect him to not break down. To me, Guti is worthwhile UNTIL O'Neill gets to the bigs. Once he gets there you likely want him playing everyday which eliminates the need for a platoon spot anyway. But even if you bring him up and put him in a platoon, then Guti is out of a spot then. So sign him for a year and then if O'Neill comes up in July you can throw Guti on the DL with old age disease and be done with it.

    Desmond is an interesting name for a couple of reasons ... and definitely IF he came available and wasn't heading back to Texas someone that I could completely get behind going after because he checks every single box that is needed for this team and would be worth giving up a compensatory pick for. He can play both OF (LF) and provides SS protection against Marte not growing. I don't know if I would say that Desmond is a great leadoff hitter but I think you could slot him there with a very interesting lineup construction if you wanted to go in that direction (proposed lineup below). His career numbers are fairly consistent with the exception of a down 2015 season when Washington as a whole really tanked. The downside to me is that you're looking at a guy that is going to be in demand in what will be a thin free agent market. The proposed market value for him is in line with a 6 year $100M contract (http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/texas-rangers/ian-desmond-7542/market-value/) ... I'm not sure that I'd want to go that high on term. I think I'd probably start with an offer somewhere in the 5 year for $90M range with the potential for 1-2 option years that could be added on to the back end of the deal based on performance metrics ... my fear is that the ultimate contract will probably be more comparable to the Jayson Werth deal and get to a 6 year and $115-$120M range. But with the makeup of the Mariners roster and the lack of a possible leadoff hitter really anywhere in the Mariners system at the moment, I think I'd swallow the contract a bit because to maximize the current investment in the core of your team, you need to supplement it with talent around the roster to ensure that you do make a playoff run or two with the team.

    The other thing about a signing of Desmond that makes sense to me given the change over of the ownership group is the signaling to the fan base that the present ownership group is invested in winning and in so doing should translate into higher attendance levels. The reality is that the Mariners had just under 2.27M in attendance this year which is 9th of 15 teams in the AL (only Baltimore, Minnesota, White Sox, Cleveland, Oakland, and Tampa) had lower attendance levels.

    Projected Lineup with Desmond:

    1) Martin - CF
    2) Desmond - LF
    3) Cano - 2B
    4) Cruz - DH
    5) Seager - 3B
    6) Smith/Gutierrez - RF
    7) Zunino - C
    8) Vogelbach/Lee - 1B
    9) Marte - SS

    IF as the year goes on Vogelbach proves that he's capable of moving up in the order, then I'd move Desmond potentially up to 1st, Vogelbach up behind Seager and dropping Martin down to the 7th spot or thereabouts.

    Dae Ho Lee is fucking worthless and a waste of a roster spot. HTH
    I 100% agree with this ...

    But I'd put far greater than 81% odds that BOTH Lee and Guti are on the roster next year.
  • TequillaTequilla Member Posts: 19,800
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    If you were going to go after Cespedes, would it make more sense to go after Joey Batts on a shorter-term deal?
  • dhdawgdhdawg Member Posts: 13,326
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    he's better than marte and no one else is available. it's not really an infatuation
  • dhdawgdhdawg Member Posts: 13,326
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    Tequilla said:

    If you were going to go after Cespedes, would it make more sense to go after Joey Batts on a shorter-term deal?

    I wouldn't mind either, but cespedes is the better player right now
  • TequillaTequilla Member Posts: 19,800
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    dhdawg said:

    he's better than marte and no one else is available. it's not really an infatuation

    Even if I concede that he's better than Marte (which Marte has a ceiling to grow to still ... Cozart is probably close to if not at his ceiling) ... is the difference between the two enough to entertain trading 1-2 players from an already thin minor league system?

    Or perhaps put another way, IF we were to assume that those 1-2 minor league players were going to be moved at some point regardless, is their highest and best use to get us Cozart or to be retained for some kind of move at the deadline?
  • TequillaTequilla Member Posts: 19,800
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    dhdawg said:

    Tequilla said:

    If you were going to go after Cespedes, would it make more sense to go after Joey Batts on a shorter-term deal?

    I wouldn't mind either, but cespedes is the better player right now
    I don't disagree but I just don't see the Mariners spending a ton of money to go get him ... particularly since it would almost certainly cost them a 1st round pick that they desperately need to rebuild the farm system
  • dhdawgdhdawg Member Posts: 13,326
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    Tequilla said:

    dhdawg said:

    he's better than marte and no one else is available. it's not really an infatuation

    Even if I concede that he's better than Marte (which Marte has a ceiling to grow to still ... Cozart is probably close to if not at his ceiling) ... is the difference between the two enough to entertain trading 1-2 players from an already thin minor league system?

    Or perhaps put another way, IF we were to assume that those 1-2 minor league players were going to be moved at some point regardless, is their highest and best use to get us Cozart or to be retained for some kind of move at the deadline?
    marte is a dreckfest. he's not going to improve.
    Cozart is a mediocre hitter and a very good defender.
    I'll take that over a horrid hitter and bad defender plus a middling prospect any day
  • doogsinparadisedoogsinparadise Member Posts: 9,320
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    DISAGREE with this thread.
  • BasemanBaseman Member Posts: 12,365
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    A lot of wasted energy for a team that hasn't made the playoffs in 15 years.

    #refusetowin
  • TequillaTequilla Member Posts: 19,800
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    Why would you not expect a 22 year old playing his 1st major league season not to improve going forward?
  • dhdawgdhdawg Member Posts: 13,326
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    Tequilla said:

    Why would you not expect a 22 year old playing his 1st major league season not to improve going forward?

    because I watched him, a lot. he's a hopeless hitter. his fundamentals are a mess and he has no power. it's not going to change
  • TequillaTequilla Member Posts: 19,800
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    dhdawg said:

    Tequilla said:

    Why would you not expect a 22 year old playing his 1st major league season not to improve going forward?

    because I watched him, a lot. he's a hopeless hitter. his fundamentals are a mess and he has no power. it's not going to change
    He hit .259 as a 22 year old ... league average was .257.

    I don't give 2 shits about power ... he hit .289 for his career in the minor leagues consistently playing above age. If there's one thing I was really disappointed with him this year was that I thought we'd see more speed with him.

    I just don't see a reason to throw him to the curb yet ... that's the kind of impatience that kills organizations getting 50 cents on the dollar for a young player
  • HFNYHFNY Member Posts: 4,514
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    Most disappointing thing was really his OBP. In 219 ABs last year, he was at .351 but this year he was at .287.

    I expected some regression in a sophomore slump with scouts / pitching staffs having an off-season to look for holes in his plate discipline but I was thinking he'd be at .310 to .320 rather than a steep decline of 64 bps.
    Tequilla said:

    dhdawg said:

    Tequilla said:

    Why would you not expect a 22 year old playing his 1st major league season not to improve going forward?

    because I watched him, a lot. he's a hopeless hitter. his fundamentals are a mess and he has no power. it's not going to change
    He hit .259 as a 22 year old ... league average was .257.

    I don't give 2 shits about power ... he hit .289 for his career in the minor leagues consistently playing above age. If there's one thing I was really disappointed with him this year was that I thought we'd see more speed with him.

    I just don't see a reason to throw him to the curb yet ... that's the kind of impatience that kills organizations getting 50 cents on the dollar for a young player
  • TequillaTequilla Member Posts: 19,800
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    To me the biggest thing with young players and why they can tend to regress so much is that when they start pressing they really start pressing ... when they start pressing they panic more than a bit and where to me you see it the most is the command of the strike zone and confidence of being able to go deep in the count.

    When I looked at Zunino when he came back, the first thing that was obvious to me was that he was confident in his abilities and going deeper in the count. That led to a far better OBP as well as production from him. It's one of the reasons why I do think that there's room for him to grow as a hitter going forward with his average.
  • dhdawgdhdawg Member Posts: 13,326
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    Tequilla said:

    dhdawg said:

    Tequilla said:

    Why would you not expect a 22 year old playing his 1st major league season not to improve going forward?

    because I watched him, a lot. he's a hopeless hitter. his fundamentals are a mess and he has no power. it's not going to change
    He hit .259 as a 22 year old ... league average was .257.

    I don't give 2 shits about power ... he hit .289 for his career in the minor leagues consistently playing above age. If there's one thing I was really disappointed with him this year was that I thought we'd see more speed with him.

    I just don't see a reason to throw him to the curb yet ... that's the kind of impatience that kills organizations getting 50 cents on the dollar for a young player
    batting average...
    enjoy life in the 1960's.
    A .287 on base with no power is atrocious. and he got worse as the year went along
  • TequillaTequilla Member Posts: 19,800
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    edited October 2016
    dhdawg said:

    Tequilla said:

    dhdawg said:

    Tequilla said:

    Why would you not expect a 22 year old playing his 1st major league season not to improve going forward?

    because I watched him, a lot. he's a hopeless hitter. his fundamentals are a mess and he has no power. it's not going to change
    He hit .259 as a 22 year old ... league average was .257.

    I don't give 2 shits about power ... he hit .289 for his career in the minor leagues consistently playing above age. If there's one thing I was really disappointed with him this year was that I thought we'd see more speed with him.

    I just don't see a reason to throw him to the curb yet ... that's the kind of impatience that kills organizations getting 50 cents on the dollar for a young player
    batting average...
    enjoy life in the 1960's.
    A .287 on base with no power is atrocious. and he got worse as the year went along
    As a kid I valued the concept of a BB before anybody else in the mainstream media ever talked about that ... so thanks for that lesson ...

    That being said, BB and OPB means something IF you can get on base on your own. Your numbers increase the more you're able to demonstrate that you have command of the strike zone both in terms of swinging at strikes but also by being able to get hits with balls in the strike zone.

    The idea that everybody in your lineup has to have power is absolute BS ... how is that working for Toronto right now? How about the Cubs? I'm perfectly fine if Marte is a .270/.335 hitter that hits 9th in the order, can handle the bat, and put pressure on the base paths. He has room to grow in all categories ... but he's far from a lost cause.
  • BasemanBaseman Member Posts: 12,365
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    Tequilla said:

    dhdawg said:

    Tequilla said:

    dhdawg said:

    Tequilla said:

    Why would you not expect a 22 year old playing his 1st major league season not to improve going forward?

    because I watched him, a lot. he's a hopeless hitter. his fundamentals are a mess and he has no power. it's not going to change
    He hit .259 as a 22 year old ... league average was .257.

    I don't give 2 shits about power ... he hit .289 for his career in the minor leagues consistently playing above age. If there's one thing I was really disappointed with him this year was that I thought we'd see more speed with him.

    I just don't see a reason to throw him to the curb yet ... that's the kind of impatience that kills organizations getting 50 cents on the dollar for a young player
    batting average...
    enjoy life in the 1960's.
    A .287 on base with no power is atrocious. and he got worse as the year went along
    As a kid I valued the concept of a BB before anybody else in the mainstream media ever talked about that ... so thanks for that lesson ...

    That being said, BB and OPB means something IF you can get on base on your own. Your numbers increase the more you're able to demonstrate that you have command of the strike zone both in terms of swinging at strikes but also by being able to get hits with balls in the strike zone.

    The idea that everybody in your lineup has to have power is absolute BS ... how is that working for Toronto right now? How about the Cubs? I'm perfectly fine if Marte is a .270/.335 hitter that hits 9th in the order, can handle the bat, and put pressure on the base paths. He has room to grow in all categories ... but he's far from a lost cause.
    You're a real fucking Bill James, aren't you.
  • dhdawgdhdawg Member Posts: 13,326
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    Tequilla said:

    dhdawg said:

    Tequilla said:

    dhdawg said:

    Tequilla said:

    Why would you not expect a 22 year old playing his 1st major league season not to improve going forward?

    because I watched him, a lot. he's a hopeless hitter. his fundamentals are a mess and he has no power. it's not going to change
    He hit .259 as a 22 year old ... league average was .257.

    I don't give 2 shits about power ... he hit .289 for his career in the minor leagues consistently playing above age. If there's one thing I was really disappointed with him this year was that I thought we'd see more speed with him.

    I just don't see a reason to throw him to the curb yet ... that's the kind of impatience that kills organizations getting 50 cents on the dollar for a young player
    batting average...
    enjoy life in the 1960's.
    A .287 on base with no power is atrocious. and he got worse as the year went along
    As a kid I valued the concept of a BB before anybody else in the mainstream media ever talked about that ... so thanks for that lesson ...

    That being said, BB and OPB means something IF you can get on base on your own. Your numbers increase the more you're able to demonstrate that you have command of the strike zone both in terms of swinging at strikes but also by being able to get hits with balls in the strike zone.

    The idea that everybody in your lineup has to have power is absolute BS ... how is that working for Toronto right now? How about the Cubs? I'm perfectly fine if Marte is a .270/.335 hitter that hits 9th in the order, can handle the bat, and put pressure on the base paths. He has room to grow in all categories ... but he's far from a lost cause.
    I'm not saying everyone has to have power. But if you don't you need to compensate for it in other categories.
    Does he play really good defense? He's mediocre at best. Does he walk? No. Has he shown he can even hit all that well over a full season? No.
    Get cozart for a year, stick marte in aaa, and re-examine next off season. And zunibo ftr isn't an example of a guy who has figured it out. He came up, got insanely hot, walked a lot cause teams weren't giving him anything to hit, and then when they adjusted he went back into being shit zunino.
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