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M's winter / draft talk
HFNY
Member Posts: 4,520
Most of you think baseball is a pillow-biters' sport but for those of you who don't, what would you like to see from our own Dealin' Dipoto?
My take:
-I'm thinking the M's draft a college pitcher in the 1st round. With Felix starting to age and Iwakuma likely to pitch only 125 to 150 innings per year in 2017 (and 2018, if he has enough in the tank) they could want an arm that can reach the majors sooner rather than later.
-Zunino has a slash of .230 / .330 / .490 and catches at least 120 games.
-I hope the M's make another run at SS Zach Cozart. Marte may not be the answer but he's fine to back-up Cozart so that Cozart can stay healthy while playing only 120-130 games.
-Why not try to get Doug Fister on a 1 year deal? He pitched pretty well @ Safeco at the beginning of the year and could compete for a late rotation spot.
-Felix Hernandez still has another good year or two in him (if he dedicates himself to TUFF offseason workouts). He didn't look as strong this year and could lose 10 lbs around the mid-section. He'll only turn 31 at the beginning of the 2017 season and has to get his fastball back at least to 92 or 93 while also improving his endurance.
My take:
-I'm thinking the M's draft a college pitcher in the 1st round. With Felix starting to age and Iwakuma likely to pitch only 125 to 150 innings per year in 2017 (and 2018, if he has enough in the tank) they could want an arm that can reach the majors sooner rather than later.
-Zunino has a slash of .230 / .330 / .490 and catches at least 120 games.
-I hope the M's make another run at SS Zach Cozart. Marte may not be the answer but he's fine to back-up Cozart so that Cozart can stay healthy while playing only 120-130 games.
-Why not try to get Doug Fister on a 1 year deal? He pitched pretty well @ Safeco at the beginning of the year and could compete for a late rotation spot.
-Felix Hernandez still has another good year or two in him (if he dedicates himself to TUFF offseason workouts). He didn't look as strong this year and could lose 10 lbs around the mid-section. He'll only turn 31 at the beginning of the 2017 season and has to get his fastball back at least to 92 or 93 while also improving his endurance.
Comments
Ian Desmond may be a good fit and could even lead off against LH but IIRC, they'd have to forfeit a 1st or early round pick. They'd probably have to pay at least $20 million a year and Guti was the RH LF bat at a paltry $1.5 million.
Desmond would be even better then unless they think Heredia or O'Neill can platoon with Seth Smith and Aoki in 2017.
Would love to have Encarnacion and Vogelbach at 1B instead of Lind / Dae-ho Lee. They may be willing to forfeit a top pick for a big FA bat if they think Ryan Yarbrough, Paul Blackburn, and / or Andrew Moore can help the rotation in 2017 or 2018.
The Mariners (and DiPoto) honestly have a lot of work to do because they had a lot go right this year but that's still only an 85 win team or thereabouts. As a GM, your goal has to be to win the division each year (and you have a core of talent here to do that) and while 90 wins is the target to ensure that you get in the playoffs for a 1 game Wild Card, 95 wins is the target if your goal is to win the division and avoid the Wild Card ...
The first thing that is abundantly clear in looking at the Mariners organization is that the minor league system is not well stocked at the highest levels so the expectation for much help throughout the year is probably not realistic. So that means you are either going to have to strengthen your roster through trades or free agency. Given the need to rebuild the minor league system, the organization has to be very careful in how they go about free agents to ensure that they aren't giving up future 1st round picks as compensation.
Starting offensively ...
Catcher: I think that the Mariners are fine rolling with Zunino and Sucre. Zunino is an upper half defensive catcher and he showed a much improved approach at the plate when getting back to the majors. I agree with you that he could take a step forward with a little more improvement (i.e. shorter/quicker swing) that will allow for a higher average without sacrificing his power (I would consider him similar to a long drive golfer versus a regular professional). I don't want to put too much on him offensively given that there's a smallish sample size from last year ... but his improved plate approach should enable him to have an OBP over .300 and a slugging at .450 or higher would be good as an OPS over .750 for a catcher is very good in the AL. I'd like to see the K rate get under 30% ... that should be his goal. Sucre is clearly a very good defensive catcher that has the trust of the pitching staff. There's no reason to pay someone more than the league minimum to backup when they are going to catch at most 45-50 games. The only problem with going this route is that there is really ZERO organizational depth at catcher so you could be in trouble should something happen to Zunino requiring an immediate in-season trade to get someone to help share the load.
Second/Third Base: No issues here with Cano or Seager. Business as usual.
Shortstop: I think it's a little early to give up on Marte ... he played last year at the age of 22 and had some understandable growing pains. He needs to play everyday and honestly at this point I don't see any compelling reason to send him back to AAA. Really the 3 things you want to see him improve in 2017 will be fundamental driven ... being cleaner as a fielder, increasing his BB rate, and lowering his K rate. Given that he isn't hitting for power, his K rate needs to be down in the 10-12% range versus the 18% rate it is at currently. There's nothing wrong with Marte batting 9th and being in a position where you can play some hit and run with him, etc. as a 2nd lead off hitter, he's not Now, what I do think would be valuable would be to get a strong utility player that can play SS should Marte fail to improve and to be able to spell Seager/Cano enough during the year with DH days for them to keep them fresh. The idea of going after Zack Cozart is MarinerFS to me. He's only had 2 seasons where he's been over 100 OPS+ (his rookie season of 38 ABs and in 2015 in 214 ABs). He's a .250/.310/.425 type of slash line at best ... that's hardly worth giving up any substantial prospect for. What I'd look for is going after someone like Daniel Descalso or Stephen Drew to provide some security while not breaking the bank.
Outfield: This is where the Mariners are really in a tough spot. Cruz needs to not be playing the OF full time going forward. One of the reasons that I didn't hit 1B earlier (and will here shortly) is because it would be very nice if the Mariners could find a way to turn Cruz into a passable 1B in Spring Training so that the Mariners don't have to go down the path of having a wasted roster spot for someone that gives them a non-option anywhere else on the field. Martin is obviously fine in CF and plus defensively ... probably not going to get much more out of him offensively. Smith is probably coming back and will be in a platoon position and it sounds like they want to bring Guti back as the other end of that platoon. The big mistake the Mariners can and likely will make is bringing back Aoki ... he's terrible. If you're going to go down that path, I'd rather see them go out in free agency and sign Jon Jay ... a comparable option as a lead off hitter (arguably a slightly better hitter) that is a defensive upgrade. The Mariners could just as easily go cheaper in this spot by turning the last OF spot (as well as leadoff hitter) over to a platoon of Gamel and Heredia. I'm not thrilled with that option but you need at least one of them on your MLB roster to over the Smith/Guti platoon anyway. The Mariners would also be well served to not do anything crazy with the potential that Tyler O'Neill may be ready for the bigs by some point next summer. The reality is though that this team is lacking a leadoff hitter and THAT is a bit of an issue.
First Base: This is why the Cruz situation and hopefully finding a way to get him to be able to play some 1B would be helpful. I think it's fairly clear that the acquisition of Vogelbach was set with 2017 in mind. Lind is gone and while Vogelbach is unproven, he's got a resume to think that he could have a chance to produce ... at least at the point where if you have him hitting in the bottom portion of the order early with little pressure that he could perform. Without Cruz being able to play 1B, you're probably looking at resigning Dae Ho Lee which is a waste to me because he can't hit high end pitching ... he's a AAAA player. DJ Peterson is at least another full season away from even thinking of being the righty platoon portion of the equation. But if you can get Cruz to be able to play some here then you can take the Dae Ho roster spot and cover that with either another OF (given that you're going to be platoon heavy here) or perhaps more importantly with another bullpen arm.
What about Mike Napoli at 1B on a two year deal? Vogelbach may not be the full-time answer there and DJ Peterson won't be ready as a RH bat there for a couple more years.
Would love to let Guti and Aoki go and replace them with better / younger players. Besides Desmond, Michael Saunders may be interested in coming back now that Jack Z. is gone.
My point on Cruz is that I'd love to find some way to get a better backup option at 1B in case Vogelbach goes to absolute shit and can't hack it. IF Cruz can pick up 1B, it provides some protection there. Taking my thoughts of how you try to fool proof your roster, that'd be the way to cover up the uncertainty at 1B. Bringing back Dae Ho there doesn't do that because IF Vogelbach isn't ready for the bigs then you have a massive hole at 1B because Dae Ho can't hit any righty worth a shit or a lefty that has plus stuff.
I'm with you in that I'd love to see the Mariners move on from Guti but they won't because they are the Mariners. In fairness, as a platoon righty that gets maybe 150-200 ABs Guti is a worthwhile player. But he's got to be your 5th OF IMO because he's not a guy that you can throw in there 18 of 22 days and expect him to not break down. To me, Guti is worthwhile UNTIL O'Neill gets to the bigs. Once he gets there you likely want him playing everyday which eliminates the need for a platoon spot anyway. But even if you bring him up and put him in a platoon, then Guti is out of a spot then. So sign him for a year and then if O'Neill comes up in July you can throw Guti on the DL with old age disease and be done with it.
Desmond is an interesting name for a couple of reasons ... and definitely IF he came available and wasn't heading back to Texas someone that I could completely get behind going after because he checks every single box that is needed for this team and would be worth giving up a compensatory pick for. He can play both OF (LF) and provides SS protection against Marte not growing. I don't know if I would say that Desmond is a great leadoff hitter but I think you could slot him there with a very interesting lineup construction if you wanted to go in that direction (proposed lineup below). His career numbers are fairly consistent with the exception of a down 2015 season when Washington as a whole really tanked. The downside to me is that you're looking at a guy that is going to be in demand in what will be a thin free agent market. The proposed market value for him is in line with a 6 year $100M contract (http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/texas-rangers/ian-desmond-7542/market-value/) ... I'm not sure that I'd want to go that high on term. I think I'd probably start with an offer somewhere in the 5 year for $90M range with the potential for 1-2 option years that could be added on to the back end of the deal based on performance metrics ... my fear is that the ultimate contract will probably be more comparable to the Jayson Werth deal and get to a 6 year and $115-$120M range. But with the makeup of the Mariners roster and the lack of a possible leadoff hitter really anywhere in the Mariners system at the moment, I think I'd swallow the contract a bit because to maximize the current investment in the core of your team, you need to supplement it with talent around the roster to ensure that you do make a playoff run or two with the team.
The other thing about a signing of Desmond that makes sense to me given the change over of the ownership group is the signaling to the fan base that the present ownership group is invested in winning and in so doing should translate into higher attendance levels. The reality is that the Mariners had just under 2.27M in attendance this year which is 9th of 15 teams in the AL (only Baltimore, Minnesota, White Sox, Cleveland, Oakland, and Tampa) had lower attendance levels.
Projected Lineup with Desmond:
1) Martin - CF
2) Desmond - LF
3) Cano - 2B
4) Cruz - DH
5) Seager - 3B
6) Smith/Gutierrez - RF
7) Zunino - C
8) Vogelbach/Lee - 1B
9) Marte - SS
IF as the year goes on Vogelbach proves that he's capable of moving up in the order, then I'd move Desmond potentially up to 1st, Vogelbach up behind Seager and dropping Martin down to the 7th spot or thereabouts.
Just scrolling through it was bad enough.
If not, why scroll through?
Starting with the rotation ...
Felix had a decided down year mixed with injuries and how much those injuries were a factor in his declining stuff that led to a lot of nibbling, high walks, and some real low level games is debatable. I expect that he'll be better next year than last but he's missed at least 2-3 starts now 3 of the last 4 years so having an expectation that he'll have a DL stint at minimum is probably wise ... so assume that you're going to need to spot 3 starts somewhere in your rotation here ...
During the middle of the season, everybody was talking about how lucky it was that the Mariners lucked back into the Iwakuma contract ... they'll be talking by the middle of next season how smelly the Iwakuma contract looks going forward. He made 33 starts last year ... he hasn't done that since 2013. His numbers went way up last year and you can tell that his stuff isn't the same. At this point, he's a 4-5 starter in a rotation and needs to be viewed as such. I think it's fair to assume that you're probably looking at 20-25 starts at best from Iwakuma next year and it wouldn't shock me if there was some work done to try to make sure that he didn't hit the performance levels to trigger an automatic clause in his 2018 contract.
The key to the rotation is going to sit once again with Walker and Paxton. Paxton probably had a better year last year than the numbers bore out ... he was on his way to figuring it out before being struck by a line drive. He's a Sark caliber pitcher to me ... great when front running and things are going right ... terrible when adversity strikes. The hope is that Walker got a wake up call when he was sent down ... not sure if he did. I think that there's a good shot that he gets traded (and we'll eventually regret the deal). I think it's possible that Paxton can get up to 30 starts next year (his total innings this year were around 170 so a full year load is reasonable for him). Walker you'd be lucky to get 25-30 starts out of ... the words coming from the organization tell me that they just want to move on from him ... hope they get a strong deal for him ... targeting an OF would be a good idea if they did move from Walker (as a better option away from an Ian Desmond type of player) ...
I like Ariel Miranda and what he did ... I would like to see him in the role of a #5 or #6 starter (I'm assuming he still has minor league options) because he'll still end up starting 20-25 starts in the majors but we'll need a guy at some point to be able to slot in and keep the rotation up and running. Whether that is Miranda or Nathan Karns, there has to be something to keep things going because looking at the rotations down in AAA and AA, there's not much there that excites. Most of the options there profile as back of the rotation, fill-in, or pen prospects. Any talent that the Mariners do have in their system with pitching is at lower levels right now ... so expecting that there's help on the way is missing the point. That tells me that looking at something on the market may be prudent.
There's not a lot of great names on the market and the Mariners I'm sure will likely be limited by what won't be a largely expanding payroll. I'm assuming that they are going to move Walker so they'll need a replacement in the rotation for that. Potential options ...
The idea of going after Doug Fister isn't a bad idea although I wonder how much he has left given that his WHIP the last 2 years is in the 1.4 range. That's a number that really worries me.
Probably the best FA pitcher on the market is Rich Hill ... that's a pure risk/reward signing to me given his age and the fact that I don't think that there's anyway that you can expect that he's going to give you 30+ starts. I'm curious as to what his market will be. Is he worth a 2 year $25-$30M contract? Can you get him for that?
A name that would intrigue me that I think you could get on a 1 year flier contract given his 2016 season would be Edinson Volquez ... I still think he's got some stuff left in the tank (there isn't a dip in stuff) and his numbers from last year look like he got struck a bit by some bad luck and a couple of horrendous starts. Can you get him for a 1 year $15M contract or a 2 year $25M deal?
The name that perhaps intrigues me most is Jeremy Hellickson given his age and that you could lock him up for the next 4-5 years and fill in a piece of the rotation for a few years to come (important given lack of high end options coming through the system) ... although you could argue that Hellickson is at best a #3 or #4 starter on his own merits. Given a down market and that he's represented by Scott Boras, it's probably fair to assume that you're going to pay more for signing him than what his value is ... a reasonable contract for him is probably in the 4 year range for $50-$55M ... he'll probably end up closer to 4-5 years at an average of $15+M per year. That's not a contract that the Mariners need to waste their time with. If they are going to go hard into the free agent market, they need to go in at the high end and get the best quality and not do the old Mariner standby of crossing the fingers that somebody that they can get by overpaying for slightly above replacement level players.
IF they don't move Walker, they probably don't need to dip into the free agent market. IF they do, they probably need to go find another arm. In all honesty, the difference between this team missing the playoffs in 2016 and making it was a lack of pitching depth in both the rotation and pen.
This is probably in a better position than the rotation. The closer is identified in Edwin Diaz and having Cishek moving into more of an 8th inning role (think what Darren O'Day and Pat Neshek have done in years prior) also provides some closing cover in that the need to overuse Diaz probably goes away. But the key to that is making sure that there's cover for Cishek to provide cover for Diaz. And that means that you have to build out the depth of the pen ...
Let's be honest at this point, a high end MLB pen means (to me) that you need to have 7 members in the pen and a total of 12 pitchers IF you don't have a high end rotation. This goes again to why it is so important to have versatility on your bench because you really only have room to carry a backup C, a utility IF that can play all positions (2B, SS, 3B), and a backup OF (with the idea that somebody at least on your roster can play 1B if needed). If you have a staff that can get you deep into the game you can get away with 6 in the pen. But the Mariners have a staff chalk full of guys that will consistently struggle to get into the 7th ... which means that you're likely covering 3 IP per night ... or close to 20 IP per week. There's 26 weeks in a MLB season ... if you have your pen guys averaging 3+ appearances per week, then you are starting to get in a situation where all the guys in your pen will be averaging 75-80 appearance per year if they all pitch on average 1 IP per appearance. That's going to absolutely wear down your pen. If you have 7 guys on average down there, then you're able to spread out workloads and get guys into more of a 65-70 appearance level. That's far more doable.
It's sounding likely that Nick Vincent will return for 2017 ... that makes sense in that he has some good stuff. He seems like he isn't the most reliable in high leverage situations as the stress gets to him. You're probably looking at him in 6th and 7th inning roles and potentially to mop up a bit in games where the team is 1-3 runs behind in those situations and/or bridge to the more reliable relievers. He's a piece ... that's about that.
Wilhelmsen is arbitration eligible ... personally he adds very little to the pen to me. I'd likely consider non-tendering him. He's basically the same pitcher as Vincent but has more service time and thus will cost more (he was on a 1-year contract for over $3M in 2016 compared to Vincent at the minimum and while I think arbitration eligible in 2017 I can't imagine that he'd get a bump to more than $2M).
I think it's likely that you'll see Dan Altavila in the pen next year ... came up at the end of the year and showed well. He was the closer at AA and had a strong year down there.
Storen's a free agent and his contract last year was in excess of $8M ... while he's got probably a 1 year deal coming given how shitty his 2016 was, with 4 RHP already in position in the pen, he's obviously not coming back here as we can spend our money more effectively. Especially when you consider that I haven't even gotten to guys like Tony Zych who could be a factor if his shoulder issues ever resolve.
The pen's biggest weakness last year was that they transitioned Mike Montgomery out of the rotation into the pen and he was so-so as a situational lefty (far better when just handing the ball to him at the start of an inning). The only other lefty in the pen was Vidal Nuno who is better positioned to be the long man out of the pen and another backup option IF needed for the rotation (think 7th or 8th starter). Depending on Charlie Furbush as your primary lefty for 2017 is probably foolish. If he can make it back then having 2 high end lefties is a tremendous luxury to have and should you be in a position where you are out of the race or have other needs at the deadline, you may be able to get something out of the situation ... so going after a lefty reliever should be a priority.
Looking at lefty relievers, the best on the market is probably Travis Wood with the Cubs. Assuming that the Cubs want him back, $$$ will not be a problem for them and therefore I think you can probably assume that the Mariners will not be able to get him. Next level LHP names available include Boone Logan, JP Howell, Jerry Blevins, and Brett Cecil. Howell is with the Dodgers and assuming they want him back again that's a situation where the $$$ situation isn't going to probably work out for the Mariners. Blevins may fall into the same category with the Mets. Cecil was up and down this year for the Blue Jays (particularly down early in the year) and who knows what the Blue Jays want to do there. I would definitely be interested if he hit the market. Boone Logan is probably more of a wild card since he has spent the last 3 years in Colorado and was terrible in 2014-2015. However, he's got stuff and not terrible. You're probably looking at 3 year deals in the $12-$15M range at minimum for each of these guys.
When you look at the above for what is available, consider what lack of talent is available in the Mariners minor league system (for instance the proposed trade candidate for Zack Cozart was our 5th rated prospect), and then realize that Furbush has missed more or less the better part of the last year and a half and even if he comes back is a free agent after the 2017 season and personally I can't imagine signing him to a lengthy extension given his medical history, it's likely prudent to add a lefty to the pen this offseason.
Right now a 7-8-9 of Scribner (assuming health) Cishek Diaz looks solid.
They also have some other decent RP's in Altivila (as mentioned) Storen and Vincent. Need a lefty or 2 as Furbush isn't gonna pitch in 2017.
In the rotation it is what it is. Paxton, if he's healthy seems to have figured something out with his new delivery. A 2.78 FIP over 120 innings is impressive, don't care how it came.
Walker sucks until proven otherwise, similarly with Paxton they need to change his mechanics almost completely as Jack Z did his best to ruin him. Miranda doesn't do much for me, he may be a number 5 guy. We don't need anyone great, but a back end SP is a must sign.
I think a Rotation of
Hernandez
Iwakuma
Hill/Fister
Walker
Paxton
Miranda
can be acceptable when paired with a good offense.
Bullpen:
Diaz
Cishek
Scribner
Altavila
Zych
Vincent
Storen
LHRP from outside the roster
would be acceptable.
Offensively I'd like to see Cruz at 1st base, but honestly you can just find someone else to play that instead and leave cruz at DH
LF Cespedes (5/125 or something is fine with me)
CF Martin
RF Smith/Heredia
3B Seager
SS Cozart
2B Cano
1B Vogelbach (I don't feel good about it tho, still no point in carrying lee as he's not even a good platoon partner)
C who knows, do they like Zunino? I don't.
They need to get aggressive, because right now it's really nothing more than an 83-85 win team, and they can't afford to keep waiting around for unexpected improvement