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All Time Power Rankings

BiggusDickus
BiggusDickus Member Posts: 553
edited October 2013 in Hardcore Husky Board
Some guy ("DoogPassion206") created this product and has been posting it at Doogman. It's somewhat reality-based, and I thought it would be worth discussing here:
What Is It?
It’s an evaluation of all current FBS programs from 1946 to the present. The result was a series of graphs (which look vaguely familiar to my signature and the Pac-12 schedule posters which I’ve distributed to a number of you guys) that show the ebbs and flows that all 125 programs have experienced over these 67 years (obviously for some, the ebs and flows are more violent than others). I then calculated three separate average ranks in order to get them ordered properly from #1 (Ohio State) to #125 (Georgia State, who is playing their first year of FBS football this year). The three separate ranks are first, a simple avg SRS rank since 1946 (so each year is weighted equally), second a modestly weighted system (2012 = 1.00, 1946 = 0.34) and third a progressively weighted system, where recent years are worth significantly more than those of the 40s and 50s (2012 = 67, 1946 = 1).

Why use SRS?
Because things like W-L records don’t offer a nice apples to apples comparison of programs (conference strength) and things like the AP Poll (aside from being more flawed and less predictive than SRS) only offer an evaluation of a small sliver of the CFB landscape, when I wanted to evaluate the entire landscape (which means the unexciting act of differentiating between mediocre and lower-mediocre, and lower-mediocre and bad). Using a metric like this might be offensive to some Husky fans, as we are probably a more successful program from the trophy case perspective than we are from an overall consistent quality perspective. Some of our conference rivals will appear a little closer to us than we’d like to think they are, but I don’t have a problem with that because I do think things like SRS are a better way to assess overall program quality than a trophy case that can be based on somewhat arbitrary accomplishments (like Florida State beating Northern Illinois in 2012 in a “major bowl”). SRS cuts through all that bullcrap and noise and does a great job of assessing overall program quality, I firmly believe that.

Why start at 1946?
Because unless you want to be evaluating teams based on four game schedules and against opponents that have been long wiped off the map, you have to start somewhere. WWII was a cataclysmic world event that saw several major programs take complete seasons off (such as UW in 1943) and saw dozens of smaller football programs not last through the war. In the past, I’ve used 1960 as a starting point, but that was admittedly arbitrary. Picking a number because it is divisible by 10 is arbitrary, picking one that really is representative of a new era immediately after a major world event is less arbitrary.

The Graphs
In my opinion, the most progressive weighting model is the best. It doesn’t completely ignore what happened way back in the 1940s, 1950s and 1960s but it weights those years at only a small fraction of the present day. Each passing year sees its weight increase by 1, so 1946 = 1, 1947 = 2, 1948 = 3, and so on until 2012 = 67. For us Dawg fans, 1991 is weighted 46.
image
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Comments

  • IrishDawg22
    IrishDawg22 Member Posts: 2,754

    Some guy ("DoogPassion206") created this product and has been posting it at Doogman. It's somewhat reality-based, and I thought it would be worth discussing here:

    What Is It?
    It’s an evaluation of all current FBS programs from 1946 to the present. The result was a series of graphs (which look vaguely familiar to my signature and the Pac-12 schedule posters which I’ve distributed to a number of you guys) that show the ebbs and flows that all 125 programs have experienced over these 67 years (obviously for some, the ebs and flows are more violent than others). I then calculated three separate average ranks in order to get them ordered properly from #1 (Ohio State) to #125 (Georgia State, who is playing their first year of FBS football this year). The three separate ranks are first, a simple avg SRS rank since 1946 (so each year is weighted equally), second a modestly weighted system (2012 = 1.00, 1946 = 0.34) and third a progressively weighted system, where recent years are worth significantly more than those of the 40s and 50s (2012 = 67, 1946 = 1).

    Why use SRS?
    Because things like W-L records don’t offer a nice apples to apples comparison of programs (conference strength) and things like the AP Poll (aside from being more flawed and less predictive than SRS) only offer an evaluation of a small sliver of the CFB landscape, when I wanted to evaluate the entire landscape (which means the unexciting act of differentiating between mediocre and lower-mediocre, and lower-mediocre and bad). Using a metric like this might be offensive to some Husky fans, as we are probably a more successful program from the trophy case perspective than we are from an overall consistent quality perspective. Some of our conference rivals will appear a little closer to us than we’d like to think they are, but I don’t have a problem with that because I do think things like SRS are a better way to assess overall program quality than a trophy case that can be based on somewhat arbitrary accomplishments (like Florida State beating Northern Illinois in 2012 in a “major bowl”). SRS cuts through all that bullcrap and noise and does a great job of assessing overall program quality, I firmly believe that.

    Why start at 1946?
    Because unless you want to be evaluating teams based on four game schedules and against opponents that have been long wiped off the map, you have to start somewhere. WWII was a cataclysmic world event that saw several major programs take complete seasons off (such as UW in 1943) and saw dozens of smaller football programs not last through the war. In the past, I’ve used 1960 as a starting point, but that was admittedly arbitrary. Picking a number because it is divisible by 10 is arbitrary, picking one that really is representative of a new era immediately after a major world event is less arbitrary.

    The Graphs
    In my opinion, the most progressive weighting model is the best. It doesn’t completely ignore what happened way back in the 1940s, 1950s and 1960s but it weights those years at only a small fraction of the present day. Each passing year sees its weight increase by 1, so 1946 = 1, 1947 = 2, 1948 = 3, and so on until 2012 = 67. For us Dawg fans, 1991 is weighted 46.
    image

  • IrishDawg22
    IrishDawg22 Member Posts: 2,754
    edited October 2013
  • PurpleJ
    PurpleJ Member Posts: 37,643 Founders Club
    What have you done for me lately?
  • Shit. Oregon is really fucking close all time. Doog heads are exploding around King County.
  • Haid_D_Salaami
    Haid_D_Salaami Member Posts: 541
    He lost me at

    "Because things like W-L records don’t offer a nice apples to apples comparison of programs"

    I like to dig back to the days of leather helmet to make me feel better about my program.....
  • dnc
    dnc Member Posts: 56,839
    DawgPassion's research is legit. He's not much of a doog. I actually think he might be here.
  • Ducksrule
    Ducksrule Member Posts: 100
    Stop it. Do you know how hard it is to take a bong hit while humming the theme song from "The Way We Were"?
  • Mad_Son
    Mad_Son Member Posts: 10,194
    DP206 is a good poster.
  • I actually like it. It shows that UW has underachieved the past decade. We don't expect them to be top 10 every year but this graph shows what we are capable of.

    It shows that UW should be a top 20 program for a decade with 2-3 top 10 seasons.
  • BiggusDickus
    BiggusDickus Member Posts: 553
    He lost me at

    "Because things like W-L records don’t offer a nice apples to apples comparison of programs"
    I think that was inartfully worded on his part. His method seems to weight conference W-L, which makes more sense (especially in the modern era when everyone is playing cupcakes) than overall W-L.

    Yeah, this guy isn't much of a Doog. I liked his post, which is why I thought it should be over here with people who can actually interpret data without using their vaginemotions.
  • greenblood
    greenblood Member Posts: 14,560

    He lost me at

    "Because things like W-L records don’t offer a nice apples to apples comparison of programs"

    I like to dig back to the days of leather helmet to make me feel better about my program.....

    You mean Doogs can't pimp the 58-43 card? That's blasphemy!!!
  • creepycoug
    creepycoug Member Posts: 24,066

    DP206 is a good friend of mine.

    His other power rankings (based on NC, major bowl wins, conference titles) have us 16th though I think we should be 14th. He gives Tennessee and Georgia a bump bc of the SEC.

    These rankings I think are based on SRS ratings which he swears by. He constantly points out that SRS shows the 2009-2012 teams were no better than 2006-2007 teams.

    The SRS ratings rate the UW 1991 team as the 2nd best team of all-time.

    which team is best all time?
  • creepycoug
    creepycoug Member Posts: 24,066
    edited October 2013
    Somewhere near Renton the poster formerly known as Royotis is gasping his last breath as he sees my beloved Hurricanes in the top 5. :) Fuck you Roy. You always were a stupid bitch. But we'll always have 1991 Miami / Washington.

    Much as it pains me to concede, the Florida State run of 14 consecutive years finishing in the top 5, along with the other accomplishments that went with it, is the single most impressive feat to me. A model of high level consistency. But for a bunch of fucking missed field goals, they'd have 2 or 3 MNCs to go with it. I'll also always maintain that the V tech team they beat in 99 for the title was itself a very good fucking team. Nobody remembers them because they lost, but they had a fast and ferocious D and were lights out on offense with Vick. People discount that title for FSU because they beat V Tech to get it, but those people walk around with their dicks in their mouths.
  • creepycoug
    creepycoug Member Posts: 24,066
    Oh, and on methodology, fuck WWII. The line of demarcation should be when the game was integrated.

    DO you really want me to give a shit what a program was doing before that segment of the population, which some say added a little athleticism to the game (I know right?), were allowed to play? Give me a fucking break. Next you'll be asking to discuss some ass kicking Washington gave UPS back in 1934. I don't fucking care and neither does anyone else outside of doogdom.

  • Southerndawg
    Southerndawg Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 8,347 Founders Club

    Somewhere near Renton the poster formerly known as Royotis is gasping his last breath as he sees my beloved Hurricanes in the top 5. :) Fuck you Roy. You always were a stupid bitch. But we'll always have 1991 Miami / Washington.

    Much as it pains me to concede, the Florida State run of 14 consecutive years finishing in the top 5, along with the other accomplishments that went with it, is the single most impressive feat to me. A model of high level consistency. But for a bunch of fucking missed field goals, they'd have 2 or 3 MNCs to go with it. I'll also always maintain that the V tech team they beat in 99 for the title was itself a very good fucking team. Nobody remembers them because they lost, but they had a fast and ferocious D and were lights out on offense with Vick. People discount that title for FSU because they beat V Tech to get it, but those people walk around with their dicks in their mouths.

    FSU in its hey day was among the all time great programs. Fantastic talent on the field and on the sidelines. Very fun to watch.
  • RaceBannon
    RaceBannon Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 114,091 Founders Club

    Oh, and on methodology, fuck WWII. The line of demarcation should be when the game was integrated.

    DO you really want me to give a shit what a program was doing before that segment of the population, which some say added a little athleticism to the game (I know right?), were allowed to play? Give me a fucking break. Next you'll be asking to discuss some ass kicking Washington gave UPS back in 1934. I don't fucking care and neither does anyone else outside of doogdom.

    The game was integrated on the coast and the Big 14 in the 30s. Jesse Owen played football at UCLA. The Big 14 took a lot of guysthe sec plays today. Integrated but there were quotas
  • AZDuck
    AZDuck Member Posts: 15,381
    Yep. The mangled body of Jack Trice says "hello" from 1923.

    Oh, and on methodology, fuck WWII. The line of demarcation should be when the game was integrated.

    DO you really want me to give a shit what a program was doing before that segment of the population, which some say added a little athleticism to the game (I know right?), were allowed to play? Give me a fucking break. Next you'll be asking to discuss some ass kicking Washington gave UPS back in 1934. I don't fucking care and neither does anyone else outside of doogdom.

    The game was integrated on the coast and the Big 14 in the 30s. Jesse Owen played football at UCLA. The Big 14 took a lot of guysthe sec plays today. Integrated but there were quotas
  • HeretoBeatmyChest
    HeretoBeatmyChest Member Posts: 4,295

    DP206 is a good friend of mine.

    His other power rankings (based on NC, major bowl wins, conference titles) have us 16th though I think we should be 14th. He gives Tennessee and Georgia a bump bc of the SEC.

    These rankings I think are based on SRS ratings which he swears by. He constantly points out that SRS shows the 2009-2012 teams were no better than 2006-2007 teams.

    The SRS ratings rate the UW 1991 team as the 2nd best team of all-time.

    which team is best all time?
    Nebraska 1995.
  • creepycoug
    creepycoug Member Posts: 24,066
    edited October 2013

    Oh, and on methodology, fuck WWII. The line of demarcation should be when the game was integrated.

    DO you really want me to give a shit what a program was doing before that segment of the population, which some say added a little athleticism to the game (I know right?), were allowed to play? Give me a fucking break. Next you'll be asking to discuss some ass kicking Washington gave UPS back in 1934. I don't fucking care and neither does anyone else outside of doogdom.

    The game was integrated on the coast and the Big 14 in the 30s. Jesse Owen played football at UCLA. The Big 14 took a lot of guysthe sec plays today. Integrated but there were quotas

    Oh, and on methodology, fuck WWII. The line of demarcation should be when the game was integrated.

    DO you really want me to give a shit what a program was doing before that segment of the population, which some say added a little athleticism to the game (I know right?), were allowed to play? Give me a fucking break. Next you'll be asking to discuss some ass kicking Washington gave UPS back in 1934. I don't fucking care and neither does anyone else outside of doogdom.

    The game was integrated on the coast and the Big 14 in the 30s. Jesse Owen played football at UCLA. The Big 14 took a lot of guysthe sec plays today. Integrated but there were quotas
    wasn't Alabama playing with all-white teams until SC went down there and kicked their asses with Sam Cunningham as late as 1970?!?!?!?!

    sure, Bama was nortoriously late to the party, but I'm guessing we can't say real integration took place on a national scale for some time after WWII. Even though it wasn't fully integrated by 1970, with one of the game's iconic programs still playing 100% honkey, I'd randomly draw the line at 1960. Seems like cfb in the 50s and before was almost a different game, and the people on the rosters I think had a lot to do with that. It wasn't until the 60s that programs were reaching out for players who might not otherwise have been on campus. That, to me, is when the modern game we know today began.
  • TierbsHsotBoobs
    TierbsHsotBoobs Member Posts: 39,680

    DP206 is a good friend of mine.

    His other power rankings (based on NC, major bowl wins, conference titles) have us 16th though I think we should be 14th. He gives Tennessee and Georgia a bump bc of the SEC.

    These rankings I think are based on SRS ratings which he swears by. He constantly points out that SRS shows the 2009-2012 teams were no better than 2006-2007 teams.

    The SRS ratings rate the UW 1991 team as the 2nd best team of all-time.

    which team is best all time?
    Nebraska 1995.
    Miami 2001 plunger rapes Nebraska 1995 8 out of 10 times.

    That Hurricane team had 17 future NFL first round draft picks on the roster!

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001_Miami_Hurricanes_football_team#NFL_Draft_selections
  • HeretoBeatmyChest
    HeretoBeatmyChest Member Posts: 4,295
    Maybe but the 95 Nebraska team blew everyone out. They have the best on-field accomplishments. The 2001 Miami struggled on the road. Only beat VaTech by 2, BC by 11 and Pitt by 22. They certainly were the most talented team ever. No question.
  • TierbsHsotBoobs
    TierbsHsotBoobs Member Posts: 39,680
    Nebraska only beat WSU 35-21 in Lincoln, so your argument is invalid.

    Running up the score on #fuckingdreckfest doesn't impress me, even when one of the #fuckingdreckfest is a Nick Saban MSU team. Kansas tied for second in the Big 8 that year, that's how soft their schedule was.
  • tracker
    tracker Member Posts: 866

    Beat Fucking Oregon, Nothing Else Fucking Matters.
  • HeretoBeatmyChest
    HeretoBeatmyChest Member Posts: 4,295

    Nebraska only beat WSU 35-21 in Lincoln, so your argument is invalid.

    Running up the score on #fuckingdreckfest doesn't impress me, even when one of the #fuckingdreckfest is a Nick Saban MSU team. Kansas tied for second in the Big 8 that year, that's how soft their schedule was.

    All-Time Rankings superiority guy
  • I do think the argument is 2001 Miami vs 1995 Nebraska though. I think 2004 USC is in the top 5 as well.

    That 2001 Miami team just had too much talent was the thing. So many NFL players and future probowlers/HOF guys.

    Looking back UW beating them in 2000 is one of the bigger upsets we've ever had. That UW team was really good but that Miami team was loaded.
  • creepycoug
    creepycoug Member Posts: 24,066
    edited October 2013

    Nebraska only beat WSU 35-21 in Lincoln, so your argument is invalid.

    Running up the score on #fuckingdreckfest doesn't impress me, even when one of the #fuckingdreckfest is a Nick Saban MSU team. Kansas tied for second in the Big 8 that year, that's how soft their schedule was.

    All-Time Rankings superiority guy
    honestly, I can't say I've done a total run-down of the Big 8 then and the Big East then. I do know that among Pitt, VT and BC, that at least two of them were top 20-ish type teams. I fear (actually I know) that people out west have a milder version of bias against the other coast's teams as they do ours - by bias I mean they're kind of in the dark and have to generalize a lot. I used to struggle with this with Roy constantly. and my recollection is that the Big 8 had a few more good (not great) teams than it did traditionally (traditionally it's beyond arguing that the Big 8 was REALLY top heavy).

    i'll just say this - you're right, that Miami team had a tendency to lose focus at times, but when they were focused, they made a joke out of everyone they played. A lot of people out west at that time didn't really appreciate how tough Blacksburg was to play at, and how good Beamer's teams were at home. They had, as I recall, Kevin Jones in the backfield and one or two pretty good receivers, and they were always fast and good on defense back then. Miami opened that game carving through VT like a hot knife through butter, but, as happened at BC, they kind of let VT hang around and then gave up some big plays and before you knew it, it was a real ball game by the time they woke up.

    I guess Nebraska 95 didn't have that, but comparing the two teams, I'd give the nod to Miami. I just can't see a Nebraska I back running through or around that Miami defense. Not in a title game. Wilfork, McDougle, Vilma, Williams, Campbell, Joseph ... Crouch may not have been Frazier, but he was a damn good runner and he couldn't do it. On offense, Miami was so balanced and could kill you in the air or on the ground. Running backs, receivers, tightends, awesome O line ... they had it all.

    Hard to say, and there's no doubt I am biased in part because I'm a Miami fan, and in part because I grew up watching Miami teams beat, and often decimate, vaunted Nebraska teams.

    A lot of Husker faithful will tell you that the most dominant Husker team of all time was the '83 crew with Mike Rosier, Turner Gill, Irving Friar and an offensive line for the ages. That team, of course, lost to Miami led by a QB with a Jewfro and a # 20 on his jersey (which I always thought was against the rules).
  • creepycoug
    creepycoug Member Posts: 24,066

    I do think the argument is 2001 Miami vs 1995 Nebraska though. I think 2004 USC is in the top 5 as well.

    That 2001 Miami team just had too much talent was the thing. So many NFL players and future probowlers/HOF guys.

    Looking back UW beating them in 2000 is one of the bigger upsets we've ever had. That UW team was really good but that Miami team was loaded.

    I agree. That win in 2000 was almost as big as the whammy. With the 2000 roster you're adding Reggie Wayne, Santana Moss and Dan Morgan. That time period - 2000 to 2002 - maybe best roster ever. Think of the players on the sideline - KWII, Sean Taylor, Willis McGahee (pre-knee) ... list went on and on and on.
  • I do think the argument is 2001 Miami vs 1995 Nebraska though. I think 2004 USC is in the top 5 as well.

    That 2001 Miami team just had too much talent was the thing. So many NFL players and future probowlers/HOF guys.

    Looking back UW beating them in 2000 is one of the bigger upsets we've ever had. That UW team was really good but that Miami team was loaded.

    I agree. That win in 2000 was almost as big as the whammy. With the 2000 roster you're adding Reggie Wayne, Santana Moss and Dan Morgan. That time period - 2000 to 2002 - maybe best roster ever. Think of the players on the sideline - KWII, Sean Taylor, Willis McGahee (pre-knee) ... list went on and on and on.
    Clinton Portis in that game busted a long TD run off the bench. That crowd won that game. Dorsey was making his first career road start and they spotted UW a 21-3 lead.

    Then at the end when they were comfortable and Tui had a bad turnover in his own red zone the game got a little bit uncomfortable.