New CNN Poll
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html
A couple of the items that stood out for me:
1) Moving more and more to Trump vs Hillary ... should be confirmed on that tomorrow
2) To the question for those that are not supporting the eventual candidate would they swing their support to the winning candidate, all of the major players (outside of Bernie) will fail to pick up at least 30% of the other voters ...
3) Not surprisingly, the most polarizing to the above question is Hillary and Trump
A couple of Teq thoughts on this:
1) It will be very interesting to watch going forward the levels of support in the swing states regarding vote totals to see where the momentum and passion is for the parties ... so far, it looks like the Republican voters are way more passionate and likely to go out and vote
2) Trump's rating to items 2-3 above was that he'd lose just under half of the other Republican vote while Hillary was going to lose in the mid 30% range of Bernie supporters. For the Republicans that don't vote for Trump, I wouldn't expect many to go to Hillary (outside those as Democrats posing as Republicans trying to vote for anybody but Trump). The question here is how many people will swing to the other side on Hillary.
Comments
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If this scenario holds Hillary wins in a landslide.
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The 30% unfortunately is overstated. Those numbers are always higher during primaries. Once the primaries end, time will heal a lot of voters wounds. I would say you're probably looking at around 15%.Tequilla said:Very interesting results
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html
A couple of the items that stood out for me:
1) Moving more and more to Trump vs Hillary ... should be confirmed on that tomorrow
2) To the question for those that are not supporting the eventual candidate would they swing their support to the winning candidate, all of the major players (outside of Bernie) will fail to pick up at least 30% of the other voters ...
3) Not surprisingly, the most polarizing to the above question is Hillary and Trump
A couple of Teq thoughts on this:
1) It will be very interesting to watch going forward the levels of support in the swing states regarding vote totals to see where the momentum and passion is for the parties ... so far, it looks like the Republican voters are way more passionate and likely to go out and vote
2) Trump's rating to items 2-3 above was that he'd lose just under half of the other Republican vote while Hillary was going to lose in the mid 30% range of Bernie supporters. For the Republicans that don't vote for Trump, I wouldn't expect many to go to Hillary (outside those as Democrats posing as Republicans trying to vote for anybody but Trump). The question here is how many people will swing to the other side on Hillary.
For Trump, I think those numbers are also overstated, but not to the same degree. The attacks and personal nature of the attacks between Trump, Cruz, and Rubio has created a much deeper divide between voters. I don't think 50% will decline to support Trump, but 25%-30% is completely reasonable.
But Tequila, you are correct about one important factor. It doesn't matter if 25-30% don't support you, as long as you are organically generating volume with new voters, which Trump is doing. Right now, the GOP is by far getting more voters at primaries than the Democrats. If this trend continues, it diminishes the likability numbers, as you can win by sure volume. Voter excitement and turnout was what propelled Obama in 2008 and 2012. Trump has that same effect. I'm starting to sour a bit on Trump, but he's an exponentially better option than Clinton. -
I'm not sure ... it's going to be very interesting and this will be different than any election I think we've ever seen ...
Trump's bringing people to the polls ... that's pretty clear.
Hillary's as polarizing as any politician I've ever seen ... before Trump.
The Republican Party is in a constant battle of whether to head more right or more to the center. Trump's way left of where many in the party want to be. It may open the door for a 3rd party as those that want to go way right go that way and the Democrats are moving increasingly left (and alienating some of the members of their party that lean more towards the middle).
I tend to think that the right's hatred for Hillary will be greater than that for Trump ... and most realize that a vote that isn't against Hillary is equivalent to a vote for her.
Trump's bound to say shit that will get people to go crazy against him ... we still have no clue whether Hillary is ever going to get indicted or whatever.
Fascinating to watch. -
Hillary being indicted should have already happened. Not going to happen now imo.
If I am not mistaken, every voting year comes down to 5 or 6 states?
Trump in the history of polls has never scored lower with voters on both sides.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ -
Again, we'll have to see how voting turnout is affected. Republicans mad at Trump aren't going to go vote for Hillary. They'll just elect not to vote. Trump would have to make up for this with increased turnout of first time or inconsistent voters, which he has done, to what extent, we don't know yet. Since we don't have a true idea yet of what increased voter activity we are looking at, it's really difficult to measure the impact of the likability numbers.jecornel said:Hillary being indicted should have already happened. Not going to happen now imo.
If I am not mistaken, every voting year comes down to 5 or 6 states?
Trump in the history of polls has never scored lower with voters on both sides.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/
What we've seen this election year has never been seen before. Which is why the pundits have been horribly wrong at this point. There is no correlation that accurately holds up to this years election. The previous data is useless, given the variables we are seeing right now. -
Trump will win NY, FLA, and Ohio
Game over -
trump=plutocracy/demagogery
clinton=nepotism
Can't we get our own candidates? -
Very much agree that this would be the case ...RaceBannon said:Trump will win NY, FLA, and Ohio
Game over
It's amazing to me that Trump is beating Rubio by 20 points in Rubio's own home state ... that's pretty telling to me. -
I tend to agree with the sentiment regarding Trump in that he's definitely not my ideal candidate given that I fall in the educated white class working wing of the party and there's a bunch he does that just makes me want to shake my head. But at the same time, when I look at my options, he's probably the best of the lot ... and in particular for the types of issues that I tend to care about (the economy, the economy, and security).
This is by far going to be the most fascinating of elections that I've ever seen and I think perhaps that any of us will see.
What is amusing to me is that Trump gets routinely beat up for not getting into massive policy discussions ... yet not only does he say more than a lot of people thinks he says, but he's got his opposition going away from talking policy and into taking shots at him while totally missing the mark. Trump calling a guy like Jeb Bush "low energy" works because that's what most people see when they see Bush ... a guy that you wouldn't necessarily fancy going into a room to have a serious meeting with Putin. When Trump calls Rubio "Little Marco" he's talking as much about his height as he is about the fact that he's a stuffed shirt that talks how his handlers want him to talk and tends to break under pressure ... again, another example of a guy that people don't want in a situation where they need to have confidence in the President to get things done.
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I guess we have to let it play out.RaceBannon said:Trump will win NY, FLA, and Ohio
Game over
