OMFG.... Utah +6.5, +220

FremontTroll said:

pawz said:

greenblood said:

When a spread is that obvious I'm scared to bet it, something is up. USC wins this game big

Disagree.

I was pressing 3 units earlier in the week when it was +3.5. I expect Utah to win outright.

Remember, LA might be 10x the market SLC is, and the Mormons aren't a betting populace. This move is all about the volume of money in LA pushing the line and the books desperately trying to balance the wagers.

I doubled down.

Pawz you need to up your level of analysis or you're going to go broke.

Casual fan money isn't enough to move a college football line let alone past multiple key numbers.

The line moved very fast early this morning's somebody who the books respect bet A LOT on USC. Or maybe a popular handicapper released it as a pick.

As some of you know, I used to play poker online for a living back in the day. But I consider myself to be a novice sports bettor at best.

Further, I have no problem looking like the clown when I earn it. But in this case, I think there is a lot results oriented thinking going on.

I liked Utah A LOT at +3.5. It was easy to view them as the class of the Pac, leading up to tonights game. My view the whole way was that the LA money was pushing that line (creating value for me), and that USC was incorrectly the favorite to win, let alone cover.

When I doubled-down, I asked myself specifically, what are the chances that USC win's by 7 or more? My answer was 10-15% of the time. If that estimation is correct, I'll make a lot of money in the long run.

Now if in that analysis, I'm missing a key element that the big money, pro sports-bettor knew, I'm open to be educated.

FremontTroll said:

Mike_Honcho said:

pawz said:

Farm. Bet it

Do you need a place to stay tonight or at least until you get back on your feet?

I'm down to the felt Knish. I lost everything. My case money, my tuition...

I only lost 80% of my to-date profit on the CFB season. In other words, house money.

Plus, it's not an amount of money that I care about. Which is also why I talk about it in terms of units.

Lastly .... but nobody remembers when I was right. <------- (75kwinkyface)

For example, this week I had:

Oklahoma to cover -14.5
LSU to cover -17
UW to cover +18
UW/Stan UNDER 47.5

The only other wager I lost was Cal +158. My problem was I was too heavily leveraged on Utah.

FremontTroll said:

pawz said:

FremontTroll said:

pawz said:

greenblood said:

When a spread is that obvious I'm scared to bet it, something is up. USC wins this game big

Disagree.

I was pressing 3 units earlier in the week when it was +3.5. I expect Utah to win outright.

Remember, LA might be 10x the market SLC is, and the Mormons aren't a betting populace. This move is all about the volume of money in LA pushing the line and the books desperately trying to balance the wagers.

I doubled down.

Pawz you need to up your level of analysis or you're going to go broke.

Casual fan money isn't enough to move a college football line let alone past multiple key numbers.

The line moved very fast early this morning's somebody who the books respect bet A LOT on USC. Or maybe a popular handicapper released it as a pick.

As some of you know, I used to play poker online for a living back in the day. But I consider myself to be a novice sports bettor at best.

Further, I have no problem looking like the clown when I earn it. But in this case, I think there is a lot results oriented thinking going on.

I liked Utah A LOT at +3.5. It was easy to view them as the class of the Pac, leading up to tonights game. My view the whole way was that the LA money was pushing that line (creating value for me), and that USC was incorrectly the favorite to win, let alone cover.

When I doubled-down, I asked myself specifically, what are the chances that USC win's by 7 or more? My answer was 10-15% of the time. If that estimation is correct, I'll make a lot of money in the long run.

Now if in that analysis, I'm missing a key element that the big money, pro sports-bettor knew, I'm open to be educated.

Pawz it was 14-14 when I posted that.

I also used to play poker professionally. I don't really care what the result of the game was I just spotted a poor process and thought I would offer my advice.

If you want to hear it great but maybe you have to learn on your own.

It wasn't "LA money" moving that line. Period.

I actually do want to hear it. I'm an open book (pun not intended).

Not sure how you interpreted my post as arrogance.