Kraken Offseason & Draft Primer
Tequilla
Member Posts: 20,078
Been a busy week-plus of moves and transactions for the Kraken in the last week-plus. I'm going to break this into 3 different areas/posts (draft, current roster/offseason goals, realistic expectations for the 25-26 season):
2025 Draft Primer (Round 1 on June 27th and Rounds 2-7 on June 28th)
Kraken draft picks by round as of the time of this post
Round 1: 8th overall
Round 2: 38th and 57th overall
Round 3: Traded away as part of the Kaapo Kaako trade
Round 4: Traded away as part of Fredrik Gaudreau trade
Round 5: 134th overall
Round 6: Traded away as part of the Kappo Kaako trade
Round 7: 198th overall
The 2025 NHL Draft is considered to be a relatively deep draft that may lack a bit in terms of star power depth (1st couple picks are going to be impactful) but is considered deep in terms of forwards (particularly centers). With youthful centers in the organization (notably Beniers, Wright, and Berkly Catton) the draft really doesn't particularly line-up with where the Kraken will be picking.
What I anticipate the Kraken are looking for in this draft will mirror what they are looking for in their current roster and that's to become a bigger team that is more difficult to play against. I also anticipate that they are only looking to take a C if somebody materially drops that has the upside to be a difference maker (have enough organizational depth at this point that they need to flush out to just add someone that doesn't raise the bar). Instead I'd focus on the Kraken taking players that can play either on the Wing or on Defense … there are 2 draft prospects that stand out:
Porter Martone (6'3" 204 pound RW out of Brampton of the OHL) … he's a physical player that put up 37 goals and 98 points in 57 games this year as Brampton's captain. Player comps for Martone have ranged from Corey Perry to Brady Tkachuk and that's the type of player that is highly in demand in the NHL today as size/physicality is making a material comeback versus those that had been advocating for speed/skill over size. The biggest obstacle to the Kraken getting Martone would be that the two tams picking in front of them (Philly and Boston) are well known as organizations that prioritize exactly this type of player. My expectation is that Martone will be off the board before the Kraken pick. If he isn't this would be a very strong pick option.
Radim Mrtka (6'6" 218 pound RHD out of Seattle of the WHL) … there are 2 types of unicorns in the NHL and 1) is the type of player Martone represents as a physical player that has high-end scoring ability and 2) is the impactful right-shot defender. Mrtka represents the high-end of that RHD unicorn in that he's able to mix both size and a skill profile that represents top pair upside and at worst 2nd pair steadiness. What is exciting about Mrtka is that he's likely just scratching the surface of his ability as last year was his 1st year playing in North America and putting up 35 points in 43 games for Seattle (albeit only with 3 goals) for a very mediocre Seattle team. If he was a finished product then I'd argue that there's the potential for him to be a Top 5 pick. That said there's enough risk to what his overall upside is that you could argue 8th overall is just a tad too high for him (depending on who is on the board). It's possible that you may be able to make a slight trade back to pick up an asset and still make this pick OR default to Jackson Smith (6'3" defender out of Tri City).
For the 2nd round picks I'd like to see the Kraken focus on adding more defensive depth as I view this as the weaker end of the organization in terms of young talent. I also wouldn't be against adding a goaltender as there's a need to stockpile options behind Daccord that becomes a significant need as Grubauer's tenure with the team likely ends after this coming year (unless he gets bought out … more on that later)
The Kraken should end up with a good player out of this draft … the only challenge is that there's probably some finger crossing that the player that falls to them matches an organizational need. A Center wouldn't be the worst thing in the world … particularly if you think that Wright or Catton is a better long-term fit on a wing instead of down the middle.
Comments
Offseason Goals
Current Roster - Centers
1C: Matty Beniers
2C: Chandler Stevenson
3C: Shane Wright
4C: Frederik Gaudreau (obtained today)
Beniers is a 2C on a good team … to be clear my definition of what a 2C is is a player that posts somewhere between 0.75 to 1.00 points per game, players a strong 2-way game that can take defensive pressure off of the 1C, and be a viable PP2 option. That's Beniers to me. He's not a guy that is going to average more than 1 point per game and asking him to play that role isn't putting him in a position to succeed. It's baptism by fire and it is forcing growth in his game (which you can see) but for him to play that 1st line center role he desperately would need a play driver
Stevenson is a good middle 6 player that was brought in to help ease the burder/pressure on Beniers and he did a decent job of that last year although he was also over-exposed in terms of his role and minutes. One of the big problems that many Kraken fans in general have is not properly evaluating the type of player that they have and instead fixate on the contract and/or draft position. Stevenson is paid like a 2C … so is Beniers. That tells you a lot about where they are. That said he's a solid player and the contract isn't as bad as people made it out to be.
This is a big year for Wright. He had a higher point total than Beniers but it was tied to 30% of his production being on the PP and frankly he played some sheltered minutes. There's a lot of room for growth to round out his play and I have some serious questions as to whether his future is at C or on the Wing. For anybody wanting to see the Kraken take a big leap this season one of the surest ways to do that is to have Wright take a significant step forward.
Gaudreau is the type of player that can play a 3C role and be passable but you're likely going to be ahead of your competition if he's your 4C. He's a good player that you can expect to get you 15+ goals in a season as long as he stays healthy. He's known as a strong defensive forward that plays heavy PK minutes (a need for this roster). Comparatively where this roster was last year at 4C (in theory it was Gourde and for the balance of the year he was injured and/or traded) … this is an upgrade.
Center Outlook - Free Agency/Trades
Current Roster - Left Wing
1LW: Jaden Schwartz
2LW: Jared McCann
3LW: Mason Marchment
4LW: Joe Veleno / Tye Kartye
This is a really interesting group in that you have relatively little term remaining on any of these players (last year of current deals for Schwartz, Marchment, and Veleno; 2 years left on McCann; Kartye a RFA)
Schwartz isn't a 1st line winger … not now or really at any point in his career. He's a solid leader and that experience isn't invaluable to this roster and as a Western Canadian guy who has some Seattle ties through his family (sister's cancer battle) it's not hard to see a world where there's a path to a potential extension. That said, he's probably best served as a 3rd line winger for his next contract at probably a 3-year term and an AAV under his current number. With a 16-team no-trade list I'd expect that there's the potential for Schwartz to be an attractive trade deadline move IF the Kraken aren't in a postseason position at the deadline.
McCann is an interesting name on the roster as he's got a decent cap hit and a workable no-trade list (10-team no trade) and is coming off an ok year for him but it felt very uneven. Given his AAV number he could very easily be a piece to include in a potential trade to upgrade the roster and be attractive for a playoff caliber team. I don't think I'd be looking to move him but I'm not sure I'd be particularly interested in handing him his next contract at 30 that is probably going to be in the 5-6 year range at $7-8M AAV. He's only moving this year IF he's part of a hockey trade or somebody makes an offer that can't be refused.
Mason Marchment is the type of player that is going to make a difference in how this team plays … he's not fun to play against and if he gets back to playing physical and going to the front of the net it's a massive upgrade to what has been on this roster. Similar to Schwartz this is a player in the last year of his contract at a lower AAV number that should net the Kraken a better set of assets than they traded to Dallas. I'm not sure what his next contract looks like but it wouldn't be a bad move to see if the Kraken can get a reasonable extension ironed out.
The 4th line is a spot that I really don't like at this point. I personally would just buyout Veleno but if you don't need the money or the roster spot then you might as well see if you can turn him into a potential trade asset at the deadline and move on from him. If not, you don't tender him as a RFA in the offseason and thank Chicago for taking Burakovsky's contract freeing up money for next offseason (important). I personally don't view Kartye as a NHL caliber player but I can understand giving him a 1-year deal this year to prove that he is one and play for his next contract. I don't see either of these players as being in the Kraken's plans after the 25-26 season.
Left Wing Outlook - Free Agency/Trades
Current Roster - Right Wing
1RW: Kaapo Kaako (RFA)
2RW: Jordan Eberle
3RW: Eeli Tolvanen
4RW: Jani Nyman / John Hayden
Kaako was pretty good for the Kraken after coming over from the Rangers with 30 points in 49 games (about a 50 point pace over 82 games). Similar to Beniers he's not a 1RW but he's got the ability to get to that 2RW level. There will be some challenges with the RFA deal with how many UFA years the deal will buyout and there's still a relatively small sample size of what his ceiling is given that he was buried a bit in New York. I suspect that a 3-5 year deal will be what gets settled on somewhere in the $5-5.5M AAV range. There's pedigree with the player and he's an important part of the formula to get this team where it needs to get to eventually.
As the Captain on an expiring deal, Eberle will be an interesting watch this season as he's still a very good player that despite a fairly fluke and nasty injury last year he had a decent year. It will be important to watch this year that there's not a steep slow down but I expect him to remain with the Kraken after this year as he's got a full no move clause and seems like he's embraced being part of this franchise. His next contract will be a post 35 contract meaning that the contracts going forward can be 1-year in nature and tied to incentives to maximize any short-term cap space needs. Without an obvious succession plan as a Captain on the roster at this point I'd expect Eberle to be with the team for 2-3 more years minimum.
Tolvanen is a player that I'd be very interested in looking at getting locked up sooner than later to an extension as he plays a physical game with the type of goal-scoring upside to be a very solid 3rd line option with flexibility on both wings. As with any bottom 6 player you have to be careful at how much of a contract that you give to make sure that the value meets the production but he's established himself as roughly a 1/2 a point per game player with the upside of potting up to 20-25 goals a year. If part of the identity of your team is to roll a consistent 4 lines with the ability to play with pace and offensive punch, having players like Tolvanen on your roster is important.
I liked what I saw from Nyman last year and he's the type of player that I could see slotting up/down the lineup, be a net front contributor on the PP, and play some relatively sheltered 5x5 minutes as a rookie. If he proves that he's ready for a larger role that will open itself up with a potential trade. Hayden is an important player to keep on this roster as he's got some fist throwing chops that will be required on a roster that is looking to play with pace, energy, and physicality. He's a good team guy and having someone that can inject some life into a bench and building when needed is important.
Right Wing Outlook - Free Agency/Trades
Current Roster - Defense
1st Pair: Vince Dunn & Adam Larsson
2nd Pair: Ryker Evans (RFA) & Brandon Montour
3rd Pair: Jamie Oleksiak & Josh Mahura OR Cale Fleury
As with most of the roster, there's some decent depth but I'm not sure that I'd call anybody here a TRUE 1st pair franchise defender. Dunn can have a bit of a short fuse (sometimes good, sometimes bad) and has offensive upside that shows itself more at 5 on 5 than it does on the PP from my perspective. It's Dunn and Brandon Montour that drive the balance of all of the defensive upside for the Kraken and while I wouldn't say either of them are elite PP1 QBs neither are awesome (I'd like to see a little more straight forward shooting from the point on the PP but that's just me). Because so much of the offensive production is tied to these 2 players they can tend to get themselves out of position a bit and that's an area that needs to be improved upon.
Larsson is a very solid defender that at times can be overmatched against the truly elite offensive players. He can also contribute some offensively but it definitely comes off that he defers more towards Dunn in that regard.
The RFA deal for Ryker Evans is going to be an interesting one to me because there is nothing at this point in his career that has convinced me that he's earned regular 2nd pair minutes and as such a contract that goes with it. I'd look for a 2-year bridge deal for him and the opportunity to prove over the next 2 years that he's ready to play 20-22 minutes a night consistently while continuing to upgrade his offensive game.
At this point Jamie Oleksiak isn't the same player he was 3 years ago which is a shame because the size he has you can't teach. From my perspective he tries to rely more on his skating than his size and his skating has lost half a step. When you are his size, play 82 games, only have 34 penalty minutes over the full season, and average less than a hit per contest, you aren't setting the expectation to your opponent that you're hard to play against. The trend in hits has continued a downward slide and frankly its going to cost him as he heads into the last year of his contract. He's still decent on the PK and perhaps sheltering his minutes some can get him to improve his game some but this can be an easy contract to unload at the trade deadline (16-team no trade) and there's no real path to expecting any kind of extension afterwards (will be retiring my Oleksiak jersey sooner than later).
Both Mahura and Fleury are realistically depth defenders that are the 7th defender on your roster. Neither are bad players but neither are making positive differences to the roster. What the presence of both of them on the roster does is highlight any challenges that occur should there be any injuries to the Top 4 requiring both to play. Last year Dunn missed 20 games (Game #3 and Games #6 through #24 on the season) … the Kraken's record in those 20 games were 8-11-1 and was only saved by a 5 game home stand where they won 4 of 5 games against Columbus, Chicago, the Islanders, and Nashville (yuck)
Defense Outlook - Free Agency/Trades
Current Roster - Goaltending
#1: Joey Daccord
#2: Phillip Grubauer
Let's be clear here … Daccord is a #1 goalie in the NHL and he's shown it for 2 straight years now. I have zero concern about him. It's easy to look at the surface numbers and say that his goals against went up and the save % went down this last year … I'd counter by saying the defense in front of him was worse. If you look at the delta between expected goals against average and the actual goals against average, he actually had a better delta this past year which highlights that he's doing something right.
Now, that's not to say that Daccord is invincible at all. In an ideal world I'd say that his workload probably needs to be in the 50-55 game range and there were some signs last year that the lack of trust in playing somebody else ultimately wore him down at the end of the year (not surprising). Which brings up the elephant on the roster …
There's no logical reason for Grubauer to be on the roster if it was all about performance … but unfortunately you have an ugly contract that still has 2 years left on it. While you could buy Grubauer out you're stuck with adding dead cap numbers for the next 4 years (2 years after the end of his existing deal) and needing to find a backup that you trust for Daccord. Unless you need money to fill out the roster this year, buying out Grubauer doesn't make a lot of sense outside of the performance accountability angle. Moreover, this is a hideous year on the free agent market to find a solid backup goalie that you trust playing 25-30 starts a game.
So what do you do?
Is there the potential to trade him to a team that is looking to tank over the next year and perhaps take on an unwanted contract that keeps you from having to buyout Grubauer and the associated dead cap hits in the future? Perhaps that's a team that may be struggling to reach a salary floor? I'm thinking teams like Pittsburgh (Erik Karlsson) or San Jose provided that they aren't on Grubauer's list of 10 teams he refuses to accept a trade to … that being said there's also the conversation that without the trade that he gets bought out and never plays again in the NHL so at least a trade allows him the opportunity to keep playing and perhaps re-find his game?
The other option is you just eat the contract this year and then revisit the buyout scenario next offseason (when you only have 1 additional year of dead cap instead of 2) and re-evaluate then. I suspect that this is the path that the Kraken will take given there isn't anything organizationally ready behind that they can promote.
Goaltender Outlook - Free Agency/Trades
Anybody watch the draft?
😆
what sport is this