Tariffs
Prediction of effect of 25% Canada and Mexico?
You MAGAs are on board I assume.
Comments
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“No one — on either side of the border — wants to see American tariffs on Canadian goods,” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada
except who???
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All these counties place tarrifs in our products. We can do the same. They'll move our automotive plants back to America and we'll get the jobs not the Canucks. Trump just posted "why do we send vanadium 250 billion a year? Trudeau didn't know. But he asked Trudeau what would happen if we stopped and the redone was it would destroy Canada. Trump said sounds like your or 51st state! I say we name it Canukia.
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actually I think we need details which I will look up later, present search is not fruitful. But I think in general the tariffs in place are pretty low (excepting some categories)
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Allthe euro countries and nearly every country in the world places tarrifs on U.S. goods. We don't do that and we should. We'd make billions maybe trillions. Everyone wants to sell here but they tariff our goods in their countries. Enough.
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I am for placing tariffs on countries that charge us tariffs. Its only fair. Balance it out.
As for those countries who flood our markets with slave labor products and technology that they have stolen from us, max tariffs.
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Well, the details matter a lot here. I do know offhand that tariff revenue is tiny now compared to tax revenues. Basically this is around a 25% tax to the buyer now on goods from Mexico/Canada. Basically like Mr T, "pain." And also if you invest in a business that sells to those countries, you don't keep any tariffs, you just sell less.
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Just round numbers US imports $4T.
Income Tax revenues ~$2T
Federal government spends ~$7T
I'm all for the Chilean model, sign bilateral actual free trade with anyone willing to (that isn't an authoritarian adversary). Then match/exceed tariffs with anyone who doesn't.
China exports $1/2T to the US and steals billions if not trillions in IP. Start with them. It's easy enough to replace 80% of that cheap manufacturing with onshoring and moving to countries not intent on our destruction.
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Good luck with the search. I tried myself
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If tariffs bring back jobs it's a double win
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Numbers alone show it's a spending problem.
The dem elite were either sold on MMT or were content to destroy the nation while cashing checks. Abundance.
Tariffs are small potatoes compared to spending. It's why the first round were left in place. The inflation was barely noticeable.
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Doge needs to get Massie on the team. The spending freeze is a start but we need the budget to freeze while growing the economy to have any chance
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Off the top, I'm in favor of the Mexican tariffs and we need a large tax on remittances to Mexico from those who don't have a valid Social or green card. Between the cartels, human trafficking, fentanyl, the Mexican government being a pipeline for the world's shit holes to export their criminals and military age males we save a lot of money if we get the border closed and stop the largely cash paid employment of illegals in the US. I'll pay more for avocados and tomatoes.
Canada I'm not so sure about it. I haven't seen any analysis of what our current tariffs are versus their tariffs. I know there is some problems with the Northern Border but nothing like the Southern. Not sure how much Canada is subsidizing the US automakers in Canada. Don't know what the US trade deficit (if any) is with Canada. I do know they get a free ride on our drug pricing and with Big Pharma and the US Congress banning drug imports from Canada we pay full boat (R&D plus testing) and Canada just has to cover marginal cost production with a normal price margin to the manufacturer.
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I’m guessing since the USA has the leverage and this is a negotiating tactic, we will get a more favorable trade partnership than what CUSMA currently offers as structured.
Have you even negotiated any business deal from a position of power? Trump’s not operating like Biden-Obama, who were apologizing for our dominance and deliberately not using it in negations with other countries.
I export things to Alberta every day and as it is, the US dollar’s strength compared to Canada and Mexico is a negative for selling goods there. It puts our distributors at a disadvantage compared to others who are buying from India or Pakistan.
We stay as the leader at this company because our plants make excellent parts that last for pump in the patch.
Canada and Mexico have huge advantages exporting to us than we do to them, and all transactions are affected. I’m sure the last administration didn’t mind at all, nor did the UniParty GOP corporatists.
Do proceed, though. Tell me your thoughts on trading with Canada.
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It won't be a good start:
Linda Hasenfratz, the executive chairwoman of the Canadian auto parts maker Linamar, said that the 25 percent tariffs President Trump intends to impose tomorrow on exports from Canada and Mexico could shut down North American auto production within a week. “Nobody can absorb this kind of cost, not the automakers, not the suppliers, not consumers,” Hasenfratz, whose Canada-based company has plants in all three countries, said in a statement to The New York Times. “Demand will collapse, and vehicle production will grind to a halt, putting millions of workers out of work, the vast majority of which are in the U.S.” -
Or
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/ces-trumps-tariff-threat-spurs-auto-suppliers-rethink-production-plans-2025-01-09/
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25% will not get passed onto the consumer on most products. There will major pain for the exporter, if there wasn’t then Trudeau wouldn’t be crying like a bitch.
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Idealistically in Utopia, NAFTA was supposed to elevate Mexico (Canada being an afterthought and not needing the help) into a more equal neighbor in terms of economy and elevate GDP.
Unfortunately, corruption in Mexico, along with their willingness to allow countries like China use Mexico as a staging area to export their products to the USA, has gone against what the intention of NAFTA/CUSMA (or USCMA if you want) and has undercut US manufacturing.
It needs to be restructured, and that’s what will happen.
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Sure looks like I'm right on this…
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Let’s go!!!!!!! Fuck Germany for the two year VAT audit they put me through where they ended up sending me a check. Fuck the French too, mostly for just being fags.
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I’ll add that much of the US political class has had no reason to help Mexico’s economy, as a large chunk of their campaign money and perks come from global corporations who have almost no interest in anything other than cheap labor to make their products. Legitimate companies in the USA, like mine, pay good wages to our plant workers and in return expect excellent products.
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I think the 10% on China will magically end much of the fentanyl production and smuggling done by the Chinese. The Canada and Mexico 25% I'm actually shocked by. I thought he would saber rattle for a few months to get leverage. But as shocking as it is, I trust that he knows business and knows what he is doing. We shall see.
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When you think about it, the “we need lower-wage uneducated illegal alien Hispanics to mow our lawns and clean our toilets” argument is a wild take from an objective perspective, especially since it’s almost all from well-off whites.
Taxed guest-workers for harvest are common, so I don’t include those workers.
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Not sure the China one is going to change their behavior. Canada and Mexico will submit to Daddy pretty quickly though.
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The ostensible reason for the tariffs is to stop drug traffic and illegal immigration. There is a cause and effect breakdown here. A tax on a goofy place like Mexico with the cartels running things is not likely to work for the drug trade. Watch the movie "Traffic." What does stop the drug trade? I suppose if you went full Singapore and hang people. But short of that I don't see much happening even if tariffs were 100% 200%…. what stops drugs?
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As far as immigration goes, Mr Trump said he'd build a wall and Mexico would pay for it. However now he says the tariffs YOU pay for will induce Mexico to stop illegal immigration. But how does that happen? He does not say.
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We are at a trade disadvantage with Mexico, in particular, and to a lesser extent, but still a disadvantage, to Canada.
So it appears you didn’t want to have an actual conversation on restructuring CUSMA and instead somehow tied it to drugs coming from Mexico.
You know what stops drugs from Mexico? Real border enforcement. Leavitt mentioned drugs as a shiny to use this as an incentive to curtail immigration, but for me, this is the real problem.
The U.S. trade deficit with Canada has surged from $31 billion in 2019 to $72 billion in 2023, largely reflecting growing American imports of Canadian energy. Over that same period, the gap with Mexico has grown from $106 billion in 2019 to $161 billion as the U.S. curtails imports from China and brings more electronic items, shoes and other products from south of the border.
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We should tariff China to destroy their economy and to decouple ours from one that is doomed for failure.
No deal they make should ever be viewed as anything but deception.
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Smart bombs and special forces will stop the cartels. They're now designated terrorist organizations and we're going to wipe them out.
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Well, the Israelis got rid of Hamas in Gaza and we eliminated the Taliban in Afghanistan. Last I heard the American installed government in South Vietnam is still doing great. The US has no stomach for another multi-year half assed war with a large civilian casualty number. Mexicans will come across the border in the tens of millions to flee the carnage. Build the wall and I agree with some relatively small action take out of the Cartel leaders ops, but it ain't going to be a wipeout. Cut their money supply with getting the human trafficking and drug trade down to a fraction of what it is today. Hamstring the Mexican banks who handle the tens of billions the cartel is taking in each year.
