I only follow 4 polling organizations. I dig deep in their data and their methods and know they are solid in their collection of accurate information. While 2016 was an outlier for them (2 predicted Trump would win and the others were off by a bit). 3 are picking Trump this time. It's kind of unusual historically for these guys to be as different in their conclusions as they are on this one. One has Trump up by quite a bit, two within a margin of error and the 4th with a toss up (again, unusual for these organizations). They are not affiliated with any university, mainstream media outlet, no party affiliation and they don't take a dime for their independent work on elections (the key ingredient and why I follow them so close) as they know that whoever is paying is biased when it comes to these election season polls and they want to stay away from that.
I am cautiously optimistic, but as we know for fact, democrats cheat and that creates variables no one can anticipate.
I follow the RCP avg and the following individuals:
Baris
Atlas
Rasmussen
Emerson
Trump is extremely difficult to poll correctly as seen by finals vs exits in 16/20
Pollsters always seem to end up Dem +2-3-4 in the sample because they can’t get Rs to respond.
The stay at home soccer moms and Karens have no problem spending 20min on the phone with a pollster.
The guy working a MFG job on the line? Not so much. And they don’t VBM. They show up on ED which is why we typically see a big red push at the end(aka the silent majority)
I think that most of the J6 stink is off Trump and indies are ready to vote for him again because of how bad Biden/Harris has been for 3.5 years.
Enthusiasm seems down for Harris. She needs pop stars to get people to her rallies and I don’t think the voter that waits until the last minute to decide has been given any reason to vote for her. They’ll stay home and Trump’s silent ED bloc will tailwind through in the sun belt and rust belt.
Comments
as in both the 2016 and 2020 elections, Rs have stopped responding to pollsters.
They will show up on ED and Tuesday night is gonna be wild.
@DucksFC
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Final NBC poll in 2020 was Biden +10
oof, Kamala
gotta post the outliers as well…..
Watch Wisconsin and NH.
NC/GA are going Red. The PA vote won’t come in until after WI, and by then it might be over anyway.
I only follow 4 polling organizations. I dig deep in their data and their methods and know they are solid in their collection of accurate information. While 2016 was an outlier for them (2 predicted Trump would win and the others were off by a bit). 3 are picking Trump this time. It's kind of unusual historically for these guys to be as different in their conclusions as they are on this one. One has Trump up by quite a bit, two within a margin of error and the 4th with a toss up (again, unusual for these organizations). They are not affiliated with any university, mainstream media outlet, no party affiliation and they don't take a dime for their independent work on elections (the key ingredient and why I follow them so close) as they know that whoever is paying is biased when it comes to these election season polls and they want to stay away from that.
I am cautiously optimistic, but as we know for fact, democrats cheat and that creates variables no one can anticipate.
Pollsters also famously fail to contact low propensity Trump voters.
Add early voting in and it's really hard to predict.
Cautiously optimistic that it's going to be too big to cheat out of.
I follow the RCP avg and the following individuals:
Baris
Atlas
Rasmussen
Emerson
Trump is extremely difficult to poll correctly as seen by finals vs exits in 16/20
Pollsters always seem to end up Dem +2-3-4 in the sample because they can’t get Rs to respond.
The stay at home soccer moms and Karens have no problem spending 20min on the phone with a pollster.
The guy working a MFG job on the line? Not so much. And they don’t VBM. They show up on ED which is why we typically see a big red push at the end(aka the silent majority)
I think that most of the J6 stink is off Trump and indies are ready to vote for him again because of how bad Biden/Harris has been for 3.5 years.
Enthusiasm seems down for Harris. She needs pop stars to get people to her rallies and I don’t think the voter that waits until the last minute to decide has been given any reason to vote for her. They’ll stay home and Trump’s silent ED bloc will tailwind through in the sun belt and rust belt.