Looks like the opening lines have Cal favored by 1 1/2 to 2 1/2 points
Comments
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HFNY said:
I was not Sarkastic at all.** I used to gamble for a living. You are the only one I've seen on these here boreds that evaluate lines, spreads, and games unemotionally, as they should be, appropriately considered and weighted in the fluctuating odds markets and the emotional money that drives them. I expect you consistently make money, year over year, betting on CFB - if not other sports as well.HFNY said:My site moved to UW +2.5 (at -105) so I decided to buy a half point and get 3 total:
STRAIGHT WAGER 10/06/14 16:33 EDT
Bet $ 500.00 to win $ 400.00 Result: Pending
Washington U vs California 10/11/14 18:00 EDT Washington U +3 (-125) Bought 0.5 point(s)
ps. sports betting is like driving a car and fucking - everybody thinks they are better than they actually are ...
** #letsfuck -
Disagree.MarkKoopman said:
Doogin it up pretty good on this thread.HFNY said:I also love that we are one of the best in the nation at a turnover margin of +11 vs. Cal which is below average (at 0). Cal also gets more penalties per game than UW.
First the list of potential 1st or 2nd rounders (classic doogology) and now the turnover margin against UH,ewu,gsu and the illini.
lol -
Up to +3.5 now
TCU is now +8.5 vs. opening at +10.5 -
Thanks for weighing in. I'm always worried that I'll start thinking I lose because of bad luck and win because I'm smart. I've also already erred in that I bet at 2.5 and bought a half point when now it's at 3.5 on my site.
Betting on the Huskies as a road dog or on the road in general infrequently paid under Sloppy Steve because he was so bad away from Husky Stadium (Boston College this year was typical for him) but Petersen's high level of competency changes things.
What do you think of 3.5 spread and what are your thoughts on Miles? Oddshark.com has the O/U at 71.5 so it looks like bettors are currently predicting Cal to win 37 or 38 to 34.pawz said:HFNY said:
I was not Sarkastic at all.** I used to gamble for a living. You are the only one I've seen on these here boreds that evaluate lines, spreads, and games unemotionally, as they should be, appropriately considered and weighted in the fluctuating odds markets and the emotional money that drives them. I expect you consistently make money, year over year, betting on CFB - if not other sports as well.HFNY said:My site moved to UW +2.5 (at -105) so I decided to buy a half point and get 3 total:
STRAIGHT WAGER 10/06/14 16:33 EDT
Bet $ 500.00 to win $ 400.00 Result: Pending
Washington U vs California 10/11/14 18:00 EDT Washington U +3 (-125) Bought 0.5 point(s)
ps. sports betting is like driving a car and fucking - everybody thinks they are better than they actually are ... -
And what do people think about Auburn being -3 @ Miss State? I'm tempted to take Auburn and Gus Malzahn, especially since Miss State's win over a rebuilding TAMU team may be getting over-hyped. Thinking about taking UW + 3.5 and Auburn -3 in a parlay. Or UW money line and Auburn money when they come out.
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HFNY said:
And what do people think about Auburn being -3 @ Miss State? I'm tempted to take Auburn and Gus Malzahn, especially since Miss State's win over a rebuilding TAMU team may be getting over-hyped. Thinking about taking UW + 3.5 and Auburn -3 in a parlay. Or UW money line and Auburn money when they come out.
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I like Auburn in that one. Please don't send crowbar carrying wise guys to my mom's basement if I'm wrong.HFNY said:And what do people think about Auburn being -3 @ Miss State? I'm tempted to take Auburn and Gus Malzahn, especially since Miss State's win over a rebuilding TAMU team may be getting over-hyped. Thinking about taking UW + 3.5 and Auburn -3 in a parlay. Or UW money line and Auburn money when they come out.
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Honestly, I'm the probably wrong guy to ask b/c I'm dooging it up hard on this game. I expect UW to win outright so any points conceded is gravy, insurance IMO.HFNY said:Thanks for weighing in. I'm always worried that I'll start thinking I lose because of bad luck and win because I'm smart. I've also already erred in that I bet at 2.5 and bought a half point when now it's at 3.5 on my site.
Betting on the Huskies as a road dog or on the road in general infrequently paid under Sloppy Steve because he was so bad away from Husky Stadium (Boston College this year was typical for him) but Petersen's high level of competency changes things.
What do you think of 3.5 spread and what are your thoughts on Miles? Oddshark.com has the O/U at 71.5 so it looks like bettors are currently predicting Cal to win 37 or 38 to 34.pawz said:HFNY said:
I was not Sarkastic at all.** I used to gamble for a living. You are the only one I've seen on these here boreds that evaluate lines, spreads, and games unemotionally, as they should be, appropriately considered and weighted in the fluctuating odds markets and the emotional money that drives them. I expect you consistently make money, year over year, betting on CFB - if not other sports as well.HFNY said:My site moved to UW +2.5 (at -105) so I decided to buy a half point and get 3 total:
STRAIGHT WAGER 10/06/14 16:33 EDT
Bet $ 500.00 to win $ 400.00 Result: Pending
Washington U vs California 10/11/14 18:00 EDT Washington U +3 (-125) Bought 0.5 point(s)
ps. sports betting is like driving a car and fucking - everybody thinks they are better than they actually are ...
Also, I'm not good at predicting the o/u so I stay away from those wagers unless i'm supremely confident the line is wrong.
Miles to me is an enigma. He looked so good with a quality RB last year, and I feel like the change of systems has gotten to his head. He is thinking way too much to allow his natural gifts to flourish. It is also quite possible to be Centenial, CO's version of Ryan Leaf. I need to LIPO a bit more before making a final determination. -
Cal wins this one. 34-10
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If you're offering 24 points ... I'll let you set the price. Any price you want.MikeDamone said:Cal wins this one. 34-10
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Given how much of an unknown Miles is at the QB spot at this point, I'd definitely stay away from the O/U line. In fact, I'd probably stay away from the game in general but I agree with Paws in that I like us to win this game.
I'll be the devil's advocate in the Auburn vs. Miss St game ... Miss St is the best team I've seen in the country this year so far. I think that they beat Auburn. -
Miss State 34 LSU 29Tequilla said:Given how much of an unknown Miles is at the QB spot at this point, I'd definitely stay away from the O/U line. In fact, I'd probably stay away from the game in general but I agree with Paws in that I like us to win this game.
I'll be the devil's advocate in the Auburn vs. Miss St game ... Miss St is the best team I've seen in the country this year so far. I think that they beat Auburn.
Auburn 41 LSU 7
Miss State also gave up 34 points to UAB. Why are they the best? Comparing scores is often a futile exercise, but Auburn played the best game of the season last week. Mississippi State has been impressive and the game is at home, but Auburn has been better so far. -
Did you watch the Miss St vs. LSU game? Did you look at the box score? Did you not notice that Miss St was up in the 4th quarter 34-10 and it took 2 late TDs for LSU to get the score close?RoadDawg55 said:
Miss State 34 LSU 29Tequilla said:Given how much of an unknown Miles is at the QB spot at this point, I'd definitely stay away from the O/U line. In fact, I'd probably stay away from the game in general but I agree with Paws in that I like us to win this game.
I'll be the devil's advocate in the Auburn vs. Miss St game ... Miss St is the best team I've seen in the country this year so far. I think that they beat Auburn.
Auburn 41 LSU 7
Miss State also gave up 34 points to UAB. Why are they the best? Comparing scores is often a futile exercise, but Auburn played the best game of the season last week. Mississippi State has been impressive and the game is at home, but Auburn has been better so far.
You cite UAB, 21 of their 34 points were on 75+ yard or longer TDs - which is about the only weakness Miss St has if you can find enough time (or Miss St disinterest) to execute against.
I'm sure you also noted that Miss St was up on TAMU by 48-17 at one point before 2 late TDs.
Why do I think that they are the best team in the country? Senior QB that is super poised and makes a lot of plays. Strong line play on both sides. Solid running game. Stops the opposing running game. I've watched Auburn and I don't think that they are as explosive as they were last year. -
I watched some of the Miss State- LSU game. LSU was a Hail Mary away from winning it. 34-10 is great, but games are 4 quarters. Dropped pass was maybe their best defender against A&M.
It will be a good game this weekend. I'm just not sure how anyone can say they are better than Auburn at this point. -
The weakness of Miss St isn't something that I expect Auburn to be able to exploit.
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This is one of the most Tequila things you've ever said.Tequilla said:The weakness of Miss St isn't something that I expect Auburn to be able to exploit.
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I've seen enough of Mississippi State to know they aren't playing a senior QB.Tequilla said:
Did you watch the Miss St vs. LSU game? Did you look at the box score? Did you not notice that Miss St was up in the 4th quarter 34-10 and it took 2 late TDs for LSU to get the score close?RoadDawg55 said:
Miss State 34 LSU 29Tequilla said:Given how much of an unknown Miles is at the QB spot at this point, I'd definitely stay away from the O/U line. In fact, I'd probably stay away from the game in general but I agree with Paws in that I like us to win this game.
I'll be the devil's advocate in the Auburn vs. Miss St game ... Miss St is the best team I've seen in the country this year so far. I think that they beat Auburn.
Auburn 41 LSU 7
Miss State also gave up 34 points to UAB. Why are they the best? Comparing scores is often a futile exercise, but Auburn played the best game of the season last week. Mississippi State has been impressive and the game is at home, but Auburn has been better so far.
You cite UAB, 21 of their 34 points were on 75+ yard or longer TDs - which is about the only weakness Miss St has if you can find enough time (or Miss St disinterest) to execute against.
I'm sure you also noted that Miss St was up on TAMU by 48-17 at one point before 2 late TDs.
Why do I think that they are the best team in the country? Senior QB that is super poised and makes a lot of plays. Strong line play on both sides. Solid running game. Stops the opposing running game. I've watched Auburn and I don't think that they are as explosive as they were last year.
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Good catch - thought he was a senior.
