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Two Way Too Early Thoughts on Michigan Game

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Comments

  • Tequilla
    Tequilla Member Posts: 20,098
    Generally speaking regarding pace ...

    UW has generally played a game in the 1st half where the possessions are decent and we tend to score at a relatively high rate

    It is in the 2nd half where we tend to play much more situationally and are willing to run the clock ... given that Michigan will run the clock as well it's definitely possible that if we can get up early there's going to be opportunity to really limit 2nd half possessions
  • Kingdome_Urinals
    Kingdome_Urinals Member Posts: 2,777
    The new talking point is that Michigan is "specifically built" to stop the Ohio St. offense, and by extension the UW offense.

    Because Michigan has beaten Ohio St. in 2021, 2022, and 2023 they will beat UW.

    I just think Penix is a better passer and competitor than Stroud and the Ohio St. guys.
  • AtomicDawg
    AtomicDawg Member Posts: 7,327
    haie said:

    The more time passes the more confident I am that Michigan is designed well to stop truck stop run-and-punt teams and that the only teams that can stop UW passing attack got eliminated in Vegas and Pasadena.

    If healthy nobody is stopping this offense. I guess penix could have an off game. But nobody can cover these guys or stop them from winning jump balls.
  • Tequilla
    Tequilla Member Posts: 20,098

    The new talking point is that Michigan is "specifically built" to stop the Ohio St. offense, and by extension the UW offense.

    Because Michigan has beaten Ohio St. in 2021, 2022, and 2023 they will beat UW.

    I just think Penix is a better passer and competitor than Stroud and the Ohio St. guys.

    It's an interesting flex because in 2021 Stroud threw for almost 400 yards and they scored 27 points. In 2022 it was 349 yards and 23 points.

    My recollection in watching the games in 2021 and 2022 in particular was that Michigan absolutely bullied them at the LOS on both sides of the ball and were by far the better 2nd half team in both games.

    Michigan hasn't stopped Ohio St as much as they've perhaps slowed them versus their norms.

    The difference has been that Ohio St doesn't have answers for Michigan offensively and at the LOS
  • RoadTrip
    RoadTrip Member Posts: 8,145
    AEB said:

    I cant stop thinking about this game. So excited. Listening to every pod, reading every article…especially those written by less technically gifted writers. I have two thoughts to share on our defense going into Monday.

    First, people are conflating our UT defensive performance and strategy with that of our expected Michigan performance. While our defense is good not great, my view was our plan for UT was to contain the passing game… not to be beat by UT throwing. We made trade-offs and were willing to let Texas beat us running if they could. They couldn’t.

    Which leads to the second thought: Michigan can’t beat us with their pass. Therefore, in first and second downs, our D could look more like a 5-2 with one extra big body like Tuitele/Bandes playing alongside Letuligasenoa and Ale with Trice and ZTF on the ends. We’ve got a decade of Harbaugh tape pushing our shit in, and this site specifically shat all over Kwats defensive strategy in those games - 2 DTs. Unlikely Morrell makes the same mistake.

    I think the comp game is Oregon. Oregon team was really good. Nix was a dynamic QB but challenged in the vertical passing game. Oregon ran the ball well. In the CCG, we stoned them unexpectedly in the run game. I think this is similar with a less threatening offense particularly at WRs.

    UW wins rather easily, say 34-17.

    ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
    FUCKING ALL OF THIS
  • WoolleyDoog
    WoolleyDoog Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 5,032 Founders Club
    HFNY said:

    What's Chinteresting is that Dillon Johnson has more yards and fewer carries than Corum. Corum has the 25 TDs that get all of the headlines.

    I am not a Stats guy over everything else and am not saying Corum sucks (because he clearly doesn't).....but take a look at his game log. Their best OL (Zak Zinter) had a bad leg break against Ohio State but even before then, Corum's YPC weren't amazing. He gashed ECU, Bowling Green, and Minnesota and averaged 5.6 ypc against Penn State yet his numbers against the best teams aren't that great. I'm not saying UW's Run D is elite or even very good but it is good enough when it matters.

    Lastly, I'd argue that UW has faced better RBs than Corum....principally in Bucky Irving and one could probably argue that the Oregon State RB (Martinez) is better as well. Heck, even the Texas combo of CJ Baxter and Jaydon Blue put some fear in me:

    https://espn.com/college-football/player/gamelog/_/id/4429096/blake-corum

    I was legit startled seeing Corum and the #2 back's YPC, plus throw in McCarthy. With Zinter out their two best OL might be a Stanford grad transfer and an ASU guy I remember both being above average but not spectacular in the conference. The ASU guy put a gnarly hit on ZTF in 2021. Not sure any of this means anything but don't think it's bad.
  • RoadTrip
    RoadTrip Member Posts: 8,145

    AEB said:

    I cant stop thinking about this game. So excited. Listening to every pod, reading every article…especially those written by less technically gifted writers. I have two thoughts to share on our defense going into Monday.

    First, people are conflating our UT defensive performance and strategy with that of our expected Michigan performance. While our defense is good not great, my view was our plan for UT was to contain the passing game… not to be beat by UT throwing. We made trade-offs and were willing to let Texas beat us running if they could. They couldn’t.

    Which leads to the second thought: Michigan can’t beat us with their pass. Therefore, in first and second downs, our D could look more like a 5-2 with one extra big body like Tuitele/Bandes playing alongside Letuligasenoa and Ale with Trice and ZTF on the ends. We’ve got a decade of Harbaugh tape pushing our shit in, and this site specifically shat all over Kwats defensive strategy in those games - 2 DTs. Unlikely Morrell makes the same mistake.

    I think the comp game is Oregon. Oregon team was really good. Nix was a dynamic QB but challenged in the vertical passing game. Oregon ran the ball well. In the CCG, we stoned them unexpectedly in the run game. I think this is similar with a less threatening offense particularly at WRs.

    UW wins rather easily, say 34-17.

    Yup.

    Oregon might actually be the second best team in the country
    It would have been interesting to see them play a single good team outside of Washington. They blew the doors off the teams we? struggled against. I really can't figure out why this team didn't dominate more this year. If I had to explain it I guess the defense needed 1 more dominate DL, a more athletic LB (no offense to Bruener as he was solid but not dominate), 2 more shut down DBs and a dominate safety. The D was serviceable and bailed the O out when it inexplicably struggled but had it been dominate, UW would have cruised to this NC.
  • RoadTrip
    RoadTrip Member Posts: 8,145
    HFNY said:

    Michigan's front 7 will be the best UW has played all year. CB Will Johnson and FS Rod Moore are good too. SS Makari Page is listed at 6'4" and 208 lbs but doesn't seem to make many impact plays.

    CB Josh Wallace appears to be the guy to target in terms of who he is covering.

    Their NB makes a ton of plays but is only 5'10" 182 lbs: https://mgoblue.com/sports/football/roster/mike-sainristil/24406

    Other than Iowa and their putrid offense, Michigan's last few games have been decided by 7 to 9 points. They lost their best OL later in the season so that didn't help.

    Probably the best film to watch is Michigan's Ohio State game. UW has just as talented (if not more talented) WRs than Ohio State. Very deep too. Of course the WR corp has Penix and the OL working to get the ball to them rather than McCord and lesser OL.

    I'm not too worried about Michigan's offense. They will try to grind and run McCarthy more (maybe some RPO) but the D stiffens when it needs to and if Muhammad is healthy enough, he'll mostly lock down Roman Wilson. Elijah Jackson matches up pretty well with WR Cornelius Johnson too.

    This is the 4th time I've heard this about a team UW was about to play and the Big10 had ZERO offense this year. Not worried about UW offense.
  • RoadTrip
    RoadTrip Member Posts: 8,145
    AOG said:

    Michigan will come out running the ball a lot, and probably score a half dozen TDs, try to control time of poss. THe question is if Penix et al can have enough time to put points up there.

    Quick, short passes will back them off. I'm more worried about the coaches than I am the players.

  • phineas
    phineas Member Posts: 4,732
    Off topic but holy fuckall, Texas must have the most fan podcasts of any team across all sports. There are multiple YouTube channels that have shows running all day. Not even the Yankees have something like that, that I'm aware of
  • sinceredawg
    sinceredawg Member Posts: 833

    The new talking point is that Michigan is "specifically built" to stop the Ohio St. offense, and by extension the UW offense.

    Because Michigan has beaten Ohio St. in 2021, 2022, and 2023 they will beat UW.

    I just think Penix is a better passer and competitor than Stroud and the Ohio St. guys.

    Correct. The irony is that Ohio State's receiver room has been notoriously soft the last several years. Smith-Njigba basically opted out his entire last year and Egbuka basically did the same this year. He had five fucking catches his last year. Egbuka fucking quit.

    When they fucking play Ohio State, it's also in near goddamn December in Ohio or mother fucking Michigan. Not exactly ideal conditions for dynamic downfield passing.

    The 2021 OSU-Michigan game was a snowy mess. It was 30 degrees this year.

    People are fucking retarded. The thing people have been missing all fucking year is Washington is fucking built for playing in a fucking dome. The goal was to just survive playing downfield football in a 40 degree rainstorm in Shitville, Oregon so they could get to the final 3 games in controlled, dome environments. No shit Penix and the WRs looked unstoppable last week. What the fuck did you expect?

    Michigan was "built to stop" dynamic OSU's passing offense last year and still got fucking 50 put on them in a dome by a TCU team with a handicapped Ginger at QB and an alleged NFL receiver who would be taking Germie Bernard's spot on UW's roster.

    Fuck off.



    I'm counting ten fucks for the all-time HH record. Judges?
  • YellowSnow
    YellowSnow Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 37,209 Founders Club

    AEB said:

    I cant stop thinking about this game. So excited. Listening to every pod, reading every article…especially those written by less technically gifted writers. I have two thoughts to share on our defense going into Monday.

    First, people are conflating our UT defensive performance and strategy with that of our expected Michigan performance. While our defense is good not great, my view was our plan for UT was to contain the passing game… not to be beat by UT throwing. We made trade-offs and were willing to let Texas beat us running if they could. They couldn’t.

    Which leads to the second thought: Michigan can’t beat us with their pass. Therefore, in first and second downs, our D could look more like a 5-2 with one extra big body like Tuitele/Bandes playing alongside Letuligasenoa and Ale with Trice and ZTF on the ends. We’ve got a decade of Harbaugh tape pushing our shit in, and this site specifically shat all over Kwats defensive strategy in those games - 2 DTs. Unlikely Morrell makes the same mistake.

    I think the comp game is Oregon. Oregon team was really good. Nix was a dynamic QB but challenged in the vertical passing game. Oregon ran the ball well. In the CCG, we stoned them unexpectedly in the run game. I think this is similar with a less threatening offense particularly at WRs.

    UW wins rather easily, say 34-17.

    I think after Washington wins this game, it might become apparent that Oregon was the 2nd best team in the country.

    No. If we win, Oregon is the one, true national champion.
  • sinceredawg
    sinceredawg Member Posts: 833
  • BleachedAnusDawg
    BleachedAnusDawg Member Posts: 13,148 Standard Supporter

    The new talking point is that Michigan is "specifically built" to stop the Ohio St. offense, and by extension the UW offense.

    Because Michigan has beaten Ohio St. in 2021, 2022, and 2023 they will beat UW.

    I just think Penix is a better passer and competitor than Stroud and the Ohio St. guys.

    And DeBoer >>>>>>>>> Day
  • BleachedAnusDawg
    BleachedAnusDawg Member Posts: 13,148 Standard Supporter

    AEB said:

    I cant stop thinking about this game. So excited. Listening to every pod, reading every article…especially those written by less technically gifted writers. I have two thoughts to share on our defense going into Monday.

    First, people are conflating our UT defensive performance and strategy with that of our expected Michigan performance. While our defense is good not great, my view was our plan for UT was to contain the passing game… not to be beat by UT throwing. We made trade-offs and were willing to let Texas beat us running if they could. They couldn’t.

    Which leads to the second thought: Michigan can’t beat us with their pass. Therefore, in first and second downs, our D could look more like a 5-2 with one extra big body like Tuitele/Bandes playing alongside Letuligasenoa and Ale with Trice and ZTF on the ends. We’ve got a decade of Harbaugh tape pushing our shit in, and this site specifically shat all over Kwats defensive strategy in those games - 2 DTs. Unlikely Morrell makes the same mistake.

    I think the comp game is Oregon. Oregon team was really good. Nix was a dynamic QB but challenged in the vertical passing game. Oregon ran the ball well. In the CCG, we stoned them unexpectedly in the run game. I think this is similar with a less threatening offense particularly at WRs.

    UW wins rather easily, say 34-17.

    I think after Washington wins this game, it might become apparent that Oregon was the 2nd best team in the country.

    HANG THE BANNER
  • dannarc
    dannarc Member Posts: 2,693
    @CallMeBigErn

    0-5 right? 3 in a row against Lanbo and 2 against Sark?

    Your pizza box is probably better than my stroked out brain at this point of the season
  • UW_Doog_Bot
    UW_Doog_Bot Member Posts: 18,031
    dannarc said:

    @CallMeBigErn

    0-5 right? 3 in a row against Lanbo and 2 against Sark?

    Your pizza box is probably better than my stroked out brain at this point of the season

    But still.
  • CallMeBigErn
    CallMeBigErn Member Posts: 8,028
    edited January 2024
    dannarc said:

    @CallMeBigErn

    0-5 right? 3 in a row against Lanbo and 2 against Sark?

    Your pizza box is probably better than my stroked out brain at this point of the season

    Sark lost to Azeem Victor and imploded with the fire of a thousand supernovae.
  • dannarc
    dannarc Member Posts: 2,693

    dannarc said:

    @CallMeBigErn

    0-5 right? 3 in a row against Lanbo and 2 against Sark?

    Your pizza box is probably better than my stroked out brain at this point of the season

    Sark lost to Azeem Victor and imploded with the fire of a thousand supernovae.

  • CallMeBigErn
    CallMeBigErn Member Posts: 8,028
    edited January 2024
    dannarc said:

    dannarc said:

    @CallMeBigErn

    0-5 right? 3 in a row against Lanbo and 2 against Sark?

    Your pizza box is probably better than my stroked out brain at this point of the season

    Sark lost to Azeem Victor and imploded with the fire of a thousand supernovae.

    I'm intrigued by this sport game. I'd like to try it as long as there's not a bus nearby. I guess it could be worse. The bus could be moving.
  • dannarc
    dannarc Member Posts: 2,693

    dannarc said:

    dannarc said:

    @CallMeBigErn

    0-5 right? 3 in a row against Lanbo and 2 against Sark?

    Your pizza box is probably better than my stroked out brain at this point of the season

    Sark lost to Azeem Victor and imploded with the fire of a thousand supernovae.

    I'm intrigued by this sport game. I'd like to try it as long as there's not a bus nearby.
    It's a great drinking game sans bus or oncoming traffic
  • CallMeBigErn
    CallMeBigErn Member Posts: 8,028
    dannarc said:

    dannarc said:

    dannarc said:

    @CallMeBigErn

    0-5 right? 3 in a row against Lanbo and 2 against Sark?

    Your pizza box is probably better than my stroked out brain at this point of the season

    Sark lost to Azeem Victor and imploded with the fire of a thousand supernovae.

    I'm intrigued by this sport game. I'd like to try it as long as there's not a bus nearby.
    It's a great drinking game sans bus or oncoming traffic
    Got me before my edit. Ah, well, what can ya do. We both had the thought and that's what counts. That dude would be fucked on the interstate.
  • Kingdome_Urinals
    Kingdome_Urinals Member Posts: 2,777

    The new talking point is that Michigan is "specifically built" to stop the Ohio St. offense, and by extension the UW offense.

    Because Michigan has beaten Ohio St. in 2021, 2022, and 2023 they will beat UW.

    I just think Penix is a better passer and competitor than Stroud and the Ohio St. guys.

    Correct. The irony is that Ohio State's receiver room has been notoriously soft the last several years. Smith-Njigba basically opted out his entire last year and Egbuka basically did the same this year. He had five fucking catches his last year. Egbuka fucking quit.

    When they fucking play Ohio State, it's also in near goddamn December in Ohio or mother fucking Michigan. Not exactly ideal conditions for dynamic downfield passing.

    The 2021 OSU-Michigan game was a snowy mess. It was 30 degrees this year.

    People are fucking retarded. The thing people have been missing all fucking year is Washington is fucking built for playing in a fucking dome. The goal was to just survive playing downfield football in a 40 degree rainstorm in Shitville, Oregon so they could get to the final 3 games in controlled, dome environments. No shit Penix and the WRs looked unstoppable last week. What the fuck did you expect?

    Michigan was "built to stop" dynamic OSU's passing offense last year and still got fucking 50 put on them in a dome by a TCU team with a handicapped Ginger at QB and an alleged NFL receiver who would be taking Germie Bernard's spot on UW's roster.

    Fuck off.



    Yeah, I think the Ohio St. guys are pussies but the recruiting/media industrial complex makes everyone think they are invincible. MHJ is a talented kid but Rome is actually better, just doesn't have the media profile.

    Another thing is Ohio St.s offense is built on more of a short passing game than UW's.

    What the national media don't get is that DB's are not used to covering multiple 30+ yard shots a game.

    Stroud was not the strong-armed thrower that Penix is. Outside of accuracy they don't have a lot in common.