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Two Way Too Early Thoughts on Michigan Game

AEBAEB Member Posts: 2,986
in Hardcore Husky Board
I cant stop thinking about this game. So excited. Listening to every pod, reading every article…especially those written by less technically gifted writers. I have two thoughts to share on our defense going into Monday.

First, people are conflating our UT defensive performance and strategy with that of our expected Michigan performance. While our defense is good not great, my view was our plan for UT was to contain the passing game… not to be beat by UT throwing. We made trade-offs and were willing to let Texas beat us running if they could. They couldn’t.

Which leads to the second thought: Michigan can’t beat us with their pass. Therefore, in first and second downs, our D could look more like a 5-2 with one extra big body like Tuitele/Bandes playing alongside Letuligasenoa and Ale with Trice and ZTF on the ends. We’ve got a decade of Harbaugh tape pushing our shit in, and this site specifically shat all over Kwats defensive strategy in those games - 2 DTs. Unlikely Morrell makes the same mistake.

I think the comp game is Oregon. Oregon team was really good. Nix was a dynamic QB but challenged in the vertical passing game. Oregon ran the ball well. In the CCG, we stoned them unexpectedly in the run game. I think this is similar with a less threatening offense particularly at WRs.

UW wins rather easily, say 34-17.
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  • AEBAEB Member Posts: 2,986
    chuck said:

    AEB said:

    I cant stop thinking about this game. So excited. Listening to every pod, reading every article…especially those written by less technically gifted writers. I have two thoughts to share on our defense going into Monday.

    First, people are conflating our UT defensive performance and strategy with that of our expected Michigan performance. While our defense is good not great, my view was our plan for UT was to contain the passing game… not to be beat by UT throwing. We made trade-offs and were willing to let Texas beat us running if they could. They couldn’t.

    Which leads to the second thought: Michigan can’t beat us with their pass. Therefore, in first and second downs, our D could look more like a 5-2 with one extra big body like Tuitele/Bandes playing alongside Letuligasenoa and Ale with Trice and ZTF on the ends. We’ve got a decade of Harbaugh tape pushing our shit in, and this site specifically shat all over Kwats defensive strategy in those games - 2 DTs. Unlikely Morrell makes the same mistake.

    I think the comp game is Oregon. Oregon team was really good. Nix was a dynamic QB but challenged in the vertical passing game. Oregon ran the ball well. In the CCG, we stoned them unexpectedly in the run game. I think this is similar with a less threatening offense particularly at WRs.

    UW wins rather easily, say 34-17.

    Basically the same thoughts I've had. UW will make their pass game beat us. The key is not letting it happen.
    You watched all those Stanford teams. The Pete K defenses never adjusted. They wanted to do the same thing - force them beat us with the pass….but never did. (Except when you had Vea, Gaines, and Qualls on the DL). I gots faith Morrell will adjust the scheme and force the issue. I don’t think their running backs are way better than Oregon’s or OSU, and McCarthy is not an elite passer.
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  • PostGameOrangeSlicesPostGameOrangeSlices Member Posts: 27,106
    AEB said:

    I cant stop thinking about this game. So excited. Listening to every pod, reading every article…especially those written by less technically gifted writers. I have two thoughts to share on our defense going into Monday.

    First, people are conflating our UT defensive performance and strategy with that of our expected Michigan performance. While our defense is good not great, my view was our plan for UT was to contain the passing game… not to be beat by UT throwing. We made trade-offs and were willing to let Texas beat us running if they could. They couldn’t.

    Which leads to the second thought: Michigan can’t beat us with their pass. Therefore, in first and second downs, our D could look more like a 5-2 with one extra big body like Tuitele/Bandes playing alongside Letuligasenoa and Ale with Trice and ZTF on the ends. We’ve got a decade of Harbaugh tape pushing our shit in, and this site specifically shat all over Kwats defensive strategy in those games - 2 DTs. Unlikely Morrell makes the same mistake.

    I think the comp game is Oregon. Oregon team was really good. Nix was a dynamic QB but challenged in the vertical passing game. Oregon ran the ball well. In the CCG, we stoned them unexpectedly in the run game. I think this is similar with a less threatening offense particularly at WRs.

    UW wins rather easily, say 34-17.

    Yup.

    Oregon might actually be the second best team in the country
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  • AEBAEB Member Posts: 2,986
    Houhusky said:

    PostGameOrangeSlices said:

    AEB said:

    I cant stop thinking about this game. So excited. Listening to every pod, reading every article…especially those written by less technically gifted writers. I have two thoughts to share on our defense going into Monday.

    First, people are conflating our UT defensive performance and strategy with that of our expected Michigan performance. While our defense is good not great, my view was our plan for UT was to contain the passing game… not to be beat by UT throwing. We made trade-offs and were willing to let Texas beat us running if they could. They couldn’t.

    Which leads to the second thought: Michigan can’t beat us with their pass. Therefore, in first and second downs, our D could look more like a 5-2 with one extra big body like Tuitele/Bandes playing alongside Letuligasenoa and Ale with Trice and ZTF on the ends. We’ve got a decade of Harbaugh tape pushing our shit in, and this site specifically shat all over Kwats defensive strategy in those games - 2 DTs. Unlikely Morrell makes the same mistake.

    I think the comp game is Oregon. Oregon team was really good. Nix was a dynamic QB but challenged in the vertical passing game. Oregon ran the ball well. In the CCG, we stoned them unexpectedly in the run game. I think this is similar with a less threatening offense particularly at WRs.

    UW wins rather easily, say 34-17.

    Yup.

    Oregon might actually be the second best team in the country
    Unironically Oregon was better than UT. The only place UT was better at than Oregon was interior DL. Both their coaches are retarded spergs though.
    Not our fault and yet another proof point that college football coaching is both the most mediocre and most overpaid industry in the US.
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  • RaceBannonRaceBannon Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 113,120 Founders Club
    McCarthy is a good runner. He'll convert some 3rd downs


    Look for a few more Penix runs

    That's exactly what they are NOT expecting us to do
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  • Kingdome_UrinalsKingdome_Urinals Member Posts: 2,774
    edited January 2024
    sinceredawg said:

    Pretty much every national assessment of the Huskies is founded on false narratives... UW is soft, our lines suck, can't play D, etc... that've been regurgitated so frequently that they seem to the nation like truth.

    There was some minor reassessment of UW after duckrape 2. A little more respect given to Penix after Sugar Bowl which started about 9PM and most people in the NY media's timezone didn't stay up to see.

    But most pundits still repeat the same tropes. None of which are founded in current reality. At best they reflect a 4 week period after duckrape 1, which was when we first got on the national radar, and UW was banged up and had a plague of flu. It was then that the narratives got formed.

    A week of healing and the difference between Apple Cup UW and duckrape 2 UW was incredible.

    Taking the most recent (and thus most valid) sample size of longhornrape 2 and duckrape 2 (which is actually duckrape 3 now that I think about it), we are in fact an entirely different team than what's still being depicted.

    A natty hunt is very like a presidential election campaign. Your candidate needs a lot of media attention but the media can choose to ignore certain candidates.

    Then you have metrics (polling) which give some appearance of certainty regarding future performance.

    Then you have bought and paid for pundits who plug the company line.

    TITT, EWIWBI....
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  • AEBAEB Member Posts: 2,986
    WilburHooksHands said:

    i agree that Lanning actually seems like a good coach at this point

    Agreed. We can worry about that next season.
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  • AEBAEB Member Posts: 2,986
    RaceBannon said:

    I was going to tie false sports narratives into the larger issue of media incompetentance but I don't need to

    CaptainObvious.jpeg
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  • HFNYHFNY Member Posts: 5,371
    Michigan's front 7 will be the best UW has played all year. CB Will Johnson and FS Rod Moore are good too. SS Makari Page is listed at 6'4" and 208 lbs but doesn't seem to make many impact plays.

    CB Josh Wallace appears to be the guy to target in terms of who he is covering.

    Their NB makes a ton of plays but is only 5'10" 182 lbs: https://mgoblue.com/sports/football/roster/mike-sainristil/24406

    Other than Iowa and their putrid offense, Michigan's last few games have been decided by 7 to 9 points. They lost their best OL later in the season so that didn't help.

    Probably the best film to watch is Michigan's Ohio State game. UW has just as talented (if not more talented) WRs than Ohio State. Very deep too. Of course the WR corp has Penix and the OL working to get the ball to them rather than McCord and lesser OL.

    I'm not too worried about Michigan's offense. They will try to grind and run McCarthy more (maybe some RPO) but the D stiffens when it needs to and if Muhammad is healthy enough, he'll mostly lock down Roman Wilson. Elijah Jackson matches up pretty well with WR Cornelius Johnson too.

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  • AOGAOG Member Posts: 2,577
    Michigan will come out running the ball a lot, and probably score a half dozen TDs, try to control time of poss. THe question is if Penix et al can have enough time to put points up there.
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