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Two Way Too Early Thoughts on Michigan Game

AEB
AEB Member Posts: 2,986
I cant stop thinking about this game. So excited. Listening to every pod, reading every article…especially those written by less technically gifted writers. I have two thoughts to share on our defense going into Monday.

First, people are conflating our UT defensive performance and strategy with that of our expected Michigan performance. While our defense is good not great, my view was our plan for UT was to contain the passing game… not to be beat by UT throwing. We made trade-offs and were willing to let Texas beat us running if they could. They couldn’t.

Which leads to the second thought: Michigan can’t beat us with their pass. Therefore, in first and second downs, our D could look more like a 5-2 with one extra big body like Tuitele/Bandes playing alongside Letuligasenoa and Ale with Trice and ZTF on the ends. We’ve got a decade of Harbaugh tape pushing our shit in, and this site specifically shat all over Kwats defensive strategy in those games - 2 DTs. Unlikely Morrell makes the same mistake.

I think the comp game is Oregon. Oregon team was really good. Nix was a dynamic QB but challenged in the vertical passing game. Oregon ran the ball well. In the CCG, we stoned them unexpectedly in the run game. I think this is similar with a less threatening offense particularly at WRs.

UW wins rather easily, say 34-17.
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Comments

  • AEB
    AEB Member Posts: 2,986
    chuck said:

    AEB said:

    I cant stop thinking about this game. So excited. Listening to every pod, reading every article…especially those written by less technically gifted writers. I have two thoughts to share on our defense going into Monday.

    First, people are conflating our UT defensive performance and strategy with that of our expected Michigan performance. While our defense is good not great, my view was our plan for UT was to contain the passing game… not to be beat by UT throwing. We made trade-offs and were willing to let Texas beat us running if they could. They couldn’t.

    Which leads to the second thought: Michigan can’t beat us with their pass. Therefore, in first and second downs, our D could look more like a 5-2 with one extra big body like Tuitele/Bandes playing alongside Letuligasenoa and Ale with Trice and ZTF on the ends. We’ve got a decade of Harbaugh tape pushing our shit in, and this site specifically shat all over Kwats defensive strategy in those games - 2 DTs. Unlikely Morrell makes the same mistake.

    I think the comp game is Oregon. Oregon team was really good. Nix was a dynamic QB but challenged in the vertical passing game. Oregon ran the ball well. In the CCG, we stoned them unexpectedly in the run game. I think this is similar with a less threatening offense particularly at WRs.

    UW wins rather easily, say 34-17.

    Basically the same thoughts I've had. UW will make their pass game beat us. The key is not letting it happen.
    You watched all those Stanford teams. The Pete K defenses never adjusted. They wanted to do the same thing - force them beat us with the pass….but never did. (Except when you had Vea, Gaines, and Qualls on the DL). I gots faith Morrell will adjust the scheme and force the issue. I don’t think their running backs are way better than Oregon’s or OSU, and McCarthy is not an elite passer.
  • PostGameOrangeSlices
    PostGameOrangeSlices Member Posts: 27,145
    AEB said:

    I cant stop thinking about this game. So excited. Listening to every pod, reading every article…especially those written by less technically gifted writers. I have two thoughts to share on our defense going into Monday.

    First, people are conflating our UT defensive performance and strategy with that of our expected Michigan performance. While our defense is good not great, my view was our plan for UT was to contain the passing game… not to be beat by UT throwing. We made trade-offs and were willing to let Texas beat us running if they could. They couldn’t.

    Which leads to the second thought: Michigan can’t beat us with their pass. Therefore, in first and second downs, our D could look more like a 5-2 with one extra big body like Tuitele/Bandes playing alongside Letuligasenoa and Ale with Trice and ZTF on the ends. We’ve got a decade of Harbaugh tape pushing our shit in, and this site specifically shat all over Kwats defensive strategy in those games - 2 DTs. Unlikely Morrell makes the same mistake.

    I think the comp game is Oregon. Oregon team was really good. Nix was a dynamic QB but challenged in the vertical passing game. Oregon ran the ball well. In the CCG, we stoned them unexpectedly in the run game. I think this is similar with a less threatening offense particularly at WRs.

    UW wins rather easily, say 34-17.

    Yup.

    Oregon might actually be the second best team in the country
  • AEB
    AEB Member Posts: 2,986
    Houhusky said:

    AEB said:

    I cant stop thinking about this game. So excited. Listening to every pod, reading every article…especially those written by less technically gifted writers. I have two thoughts to share on our defense going into Monday.

    First, people are conflating our UT defensive performance and strategy with that of our expected Michigan performance. While our defense is good not great, my view was our plan for UT was to contain the passing game… not to be beat by UT throwing. We made trade-offs and were willing to let Texas beat us running if they could. They couldn’t.

    Which leads to the second thought: Michigan can’t beat us with their pass. Therefore, in first and second downs, our D could look more like a 5-2 with one extra big body like Tuitele/Bandes playing alongside Letuligasenoa and Ale with Trice and ZTF on the ends. We’ve got a decade of Harbaugh tape pushing our shit in, and this site specifically shat all over Kwats defensive strategy in those games - 2 DTs. Unlikely Morrell makes the same mistake.

    I think the comp game is Oregon. Oregon team was really good. Nix was a dynamic QB but challenged in the vertical passing game. Oregon ran the ball well. In the CCG, we stoned them unexpectedly in the run game. I think this is similar with a less threatening offense particularly at WRs.

    UW wins rather easily, say 34-17.

    Yup.

    Oregon might actually be the second best team in the country
    Unironically Oregon was better than UT. The only place UT was better at than Oregon was interior DL. Both their coaches are retarded spergs though.
    Not our fault and yet another proof point that college football coaching is both the most mediocre and most overpaid industry in the US.
  • RaceBannon
    RaceBannon Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 113,697 Founders Club
    McCarthy is a good runner. He'll convert some 3rd downs


    Look for a few more Penix runs

    That's exactly what they are NOT expecting us to do
  • Kingdome_Urinals
    Kingdome_Urinals Member Posts: 2,777
    edited January 2024

    Pretty much every national assessment of the Huskies is founded on false narratives... UW is soft, our lines suck, can't play D, etc... that've been regurgitated so frequently that they seem to the nation like truth.

    There was some minor reassessment of UW after duckrape 2. A little more respect given to Penix after Sugar Bowl which started about 9PM and most people in the NY media's timezone didn't stay up to see.

    But most pundits still repeat the same tropes. None of which are founded in current reality. At best they reflect a 4 week period after duckrape 1, which was when we first got on the national radar, and UW was banged up and had a plague of flu. It was then that the narratives got formed.

    A week of healing and the difference between Apple Cup UW and duckrape 2 UW was incredible.

    Taking the most recent (and thus most valid) sample size of longhornrape 2 and duckrape 2 (which is actually duckrape 3 now that I think about it), we are in fact an entirely different team than what's still being depicted.

    A natty hunt is very like a presidential election campaign. Your candidate needs a lot of media attention but the media can choose to ignore certain candidates.

    Then you have metrics (polling) which give some appearance of certainty regarding future performance.

    Then you have bought and paid for pundits who plug the company line.

    TITT, EWIWBI....
  • AEB
    AEB Member Posts: 2,986

    i agree that Lanning actually seems like a good coach at this point

    Agreed. We can worry about that next season.
  • AEB
    AEB Member Posts: 2,986

    I was going to tie false sports narratives into the larger issue of media incompetentance but I don't need to

    CaptainObvious.jpeg
  • HFNY
    HFNY Member Posts: 5,380
    Michigan's front 7 will be the best UW has played all year. CB Will Johnson and FS Rod Moore are good too. SS Makari Page is listed at 6'4" and 208 lbs but doesn't seem to make many impact plays.

    CB Josh Wallace appears to be the guy to target in terms of who he is covering.

    Their NB makes a ton of plays but is only 5'10" 182 lbs: https://mgoblue.com/sports/football/roster/mike-sainristil/24406

    Other than Iowa and their putrid offense, Michigan's last few games have been decided by 7 to 9 points. They lost their best OL later in the season so that didn't help.

    Probably the best film to watch is Michigan's Ohio State game. UW has just as talented (if not more talented) WRs than Ohio State. Very deep too. Of course the WR corp has Penix and the OL working to get the ball to them rather than McCord and lesser OL.

    I'm not too worried about Michigan's offense. They will try to grind and run McCarthy more (maybe some RPO) but the D stiffens when it needs to and if Muhammad is healthy enough, he'll mostly lock down Roman Wilson. Elijah Jackson matches up pretty well with WR Cornelius Johnson too.

  • AOG
    AOG Member Posts: 2,638
    Michigan will come out running the ball a lot, and probably score a half dozen TDs, try to control time of poss. THe question is if Penix et al can have enough time to put points up there.
  • CFetters_Nacho_Lover
    CFetters_Nacho_Lover Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 32,209 Founders Club
    AEB said:

    I cant stop thinking about this game. So excited. Listening to every pod, reading every article…especially those written by less technically gifted writers. I have two thoughts to share on our defense going into Monday.

    First, people are conflating our UT defensive performance and strategy with that of our expected Michigan performance. While our defense is good not great, my view was our plan for UT was to contain the passing game… not to be beat by UT throwing. We made trade-offs and were willing to let Texas beat us running if they could. They couldn’t.

    Which leads to the second thought: Michigan can’t beat us with their pass. Therefore, in first and second downs, our D could look more like a 5-2 with one extra big body like Tuitele/Bandes playing alongside Letuligasenoa and Ale with Trice and ZTF on the ends. We’ve got a decade of Harbaugh tape pushing our shit in, and this site specifically shat all over Kwats defensive strategy in those games - 2 DTs. Unlikely Morrell makes the same mistake.

    I think the comp game is Oregon. Oregon team was really good. Nix was a dynamic QB but challenged in the vertical passing game. Oregon ran the ball well. In the CCG, we stoned them unexpectedly in the run game. I think this is similar with a less threatening offense particularly at WRs.

    UW wins rather easily, say 34-17.

    Pretty sure the D started out like this in the Sugar Bowl. Don’t know when they switched it up.
  • sinceredawg
    sinceredawg Member Posts: 833
    Tequilla said:

    I posted a longer version of this on Twitter/X ... but this game is really simple to me

    Statistically this Michigan team is no better than their version last year ... their run game isn't as explosive, McCarthy is more efficient with another year of experience, and their defense is about the same

    The Big10 was EPICALLY BAD this year at the QB position ... any gains that they have had defensively this year likely can be explained by that

    The most comparable team to Michigan offensively in the PAC is probably what Oregon St has been doing the last few years (arguably with better talent) ... if I'm ranking McCarthy in the context of PAC QBs he's definitely behind Penix, Caleb, and Nix; almost assuredly behind Fifita; likely behind Sanders and Ward; and probably most comparable to DJU

    Last year, the Michigan defense gave up 300+ yards to both CJ Stroud and Aidan O'Connell and about 500 yards against TCU ... a team that frankly isn't as good as this UW team is.

    I find it hard to believe that UW won't be able to throw the ball on them ... the biggest difference that we'll have with Michigan's D is that they'll bring more pressure and blitzes because I don't think that they'll be able to hold up on the back end of things. Protecting Penix and the turnovers will be massive keys.

    Standing up to the Michigan OL on the LOS is an obvious key because unlike Texas they will keep running it until you stop it. That said, their running style is a much better fit for what we're built to defend versus what Texas does trying to get more into space. If the run game is successful they get to lean into the play action game and they'll definitely try a shot with a flea flicker at some point. But outside of Roman Wilson and the TE Loveland, I'm not that concerned about any of their other receiving options.

    If you go through the top end of the talent and compare/contrast whether we're talking about Day 1 or Day 1 + Day 2 NFL picks in this draft, UW's definitely winning that. Because of the brand, the Michigan players have a higher perception to them. But in terms of quality, the balance of the high end quality sits with Washington.

    This just feels like a great matchup for UW ...

    UW - 31
    Michigan - 24

    Teq, curious what you'd say specifically about the talking points of Joe Klatt's segment where he comes to the opposite conclusion?
  • HFNY
    HFNY Member Posts: 5,380
    edited January 2024
    Accidental double-post, can't think of something witty at the moment.
  • AOG
    AOG Member Posts: 2,638
    After reading tequila I think now we? win rather eadily
  • EsophagealFeces
    EsophagealFeces Member Posts: 13,045
    Houhusky said:

    Tequilla said:

    I posted a longer version of this on Twitter/X ... but this game is really simple to me

    Statistically this Michigan team is no better than their version last year ... their run game isn't as explosive, McCarthy is more efficient with another year of experience, and their defense is about the same

    The Big10 was EPICALLY BAD this year at the QB position ... any gains that they have had defensively this year likely can be explained by that

    The most comparable team to Michigan offensively in the PAC is probably what Oregon St has been doing the last few years (arguably with better talent) ... if I'm ranking McCarthy in the context of PAC QBs he's definitely behind Penix, Caleb, and Nix; almost assuredly behind Fifita; likely behind Sanders and Ward; and probably most comparable to DJU

    Last year, the Michigan defense gave up 300+ yards to both CJ Stroud and Aidan O'Connell and about 500 yards against TCU ... a team that frankly isn't as good as this UW team is.

    I find it hard to believe that UW won't be able to throw the ball on them ... the biggest difference that we'll have with Michigan's D is that they'll bring more pressure and blitzes because I don't think that they'll be able to hold up on the back end of things. Protecting Penix and the turnovers will be massive keys.

    Standing up to the Michigan OL on the LOS is an obvious key because unlike Texas they will keep running it until you stop it. That said, their running style is a much better fit for what we're built to defend versus what Texas does trying to get more into space. If the run game is successful they get to lean into the play action game and they'll definitely try a shot with a flea flicker at some point. But outside of Roman Wilson and the TE Loveland, I'm not that concerned about any of their other receiving options.

    If you go through the top end of the talent and compare/contrast whether we're talking about Day 1 or Day 1 + Day 2 NFL picks in this draft, UW's definitely winning that. Because of the brand, the Michigan players have a higher perception to them. But in terms of quality, the balance of the high end quality sits with Washington.

    This just feels like a great matchup for UW ...

    UW - 31
    Michigan - 24

    Teq, curious what you'd say specifically about the talking points of Joe Klatt's segment where he comes to the opposite conclusion?
    Klatt thinks that UWs offense is dependent on number of possessions and going fast, he hasn't watched UW.

    The talking point that Michigan has a team specifically to stop a team like UW is actually syphilitic retardation, they play in the fucking Big10, they have a defense to beat big10 teams. Not a single team they ever play has a team/scheme like UW. They dont have some specialized defense focused on stopping a shotgun presnap motion vertical offense with ELITE QB/WR play, it would be retarded to be in the Big10 and build a defense to do so... Besides, this is not an exaggeration, the best offenses they faced all year were fucking Maryland and UNLV.

    I dont know where they are getting it but Klatt literally just repeated the exact same "this defense is built specifically for UW" talking points even regurgitated by retards falling for my 5 reasons post on their board. I haven't heard anyone actually break down what Michigan's defense actually tries to do other than "play defense good". But then again they are all obese drunken puffy jacket wearing Midwesterners stuck in the 80s so Im not surprised.
    This. Alabama’s defenses with 1st round picks all across the DL and in the secondary are what you need to stop this offense. Michigan doesn’t have that. They have a defense built to stop retard offenses like Iowa and Penn State that have dogshit QBs are are content to try to beat you 17-13. If they can’t pressure Penix and fall behind by multiple scores early, a plungering isn’t impossible.
  • Tequilla
    Tequilla Member Posts: 20,098

    Tequilla said:

    I posted a longer version of this on Twitter/X ... but this game is really simple to me

    Statistically this Michigan team is no better than their version last year ... their run game isn't as explosive, McCarthy is more efficient with another year of experience, and their defense is about the same

    The Big10 was EPICALLY BAD this year at the QB position ... any gains that they have had defensively this year likely can be explained by that

    The most comparable team to Michigan offensively in the PAC is probably what Oregon St has been doing the last few years (arguably with better talent) ... if I'm ranking McCarthy in the context of PAC QBs he's definitely behind Penix, Caleb, and Nix; almost assuredly behind Fifita; likely behind Sanders and Ward; and probably most comparable to DJU

    Last year, the Michigan defense gave up 300+ yards to both CJ Stroud and Aidan O'Connell and about 500 yards against TCU ... a team that frankly isn't as good as this UW team is.

    I find it hard to believe that UW won't be able to throw the ball on them ... the biggest difference that we'll have with Michigan's D is that they'll bring more pressure and blitzes because I don't think that they'll be able to hold up on the back end of things. Protecting Penix and the turnovers will be massive keys.

    Standing up to the Michigan OL on the LOS is an obvious key because unlike Texas they will keep running it until you stop it. That said, their running style is a much better fit for what we're built to defend versus what Texas does trying to get more into space. If the run game is successful they get to lean into the play action game and they'll definitely try a shot with a flea flicker at some point. But outside of Roman Wilson and the TE Loveland, I'm not that concerned about any of their other receiving options.

    If you go through the top end of the talent and compare/contrast whether we're talking about Day 1 or Day 1 + Day 2 NFL picks in this draft, UW's definitely winning that. Because of the brand, the Michigan players have a higher perception to them. But in terms of quality, the balance of the high end quality sits with Washington.

    This just feels like a great matchup for UW ...

    UW - 31
    Michigan - 24

    Teq, curious what you'd say specifically about the talking points of Joe Klatt's segment where he comes to the opposite conclusion?
    Link/Source?