Sugar Bowl Analysis and Predictions

In all seriousness, I predict we are going to win a close one. One player is going to pull through for us clutch and get the win. That player, is Jack m’fn Westover.

PostGameOrangeSlices said:

I think UW will win this 42-30 in a game that plays out fairly similarly to last years, in that UW controls most of the game and it never really feels like Texas has a chance to win. There were a couple of big breaks that went our way last year, but at the end of the day the Texas defense just could not get off the field.

The breaks we had last year were that Bijan sat out and they used an RB who hadn't played much. The other break is that Worthy legitimately dropped a bomb that would've cut deeper into our lead earlier in the game.

On the flip side, the game took place in hostile territory, in the state of Texas. They essentially had home field advantage. Our offensive line absolutely dominated them, to the point that Tualapapa went over 100 yards and Penix was basically untouched. A Texas player said after the game that we? were the best line they faced all year in a season that included Bama and natty loser TCU. Penix efficiently hit McMillan and Odunze to keep the chains going, and that Pete K big game defense we love to hate made it's annual appearance.

It reminded me a lot of when we lost the Fiesta Bowl in 2017 to Penn State. Yes, it was a 7 point game at the end, but we were trailing by 14 for most of it and looked like the less physical team.

However - this is 2023. Texas is better this year. They found ways to win close ones this year, similar to UW. Sark deserves credit for navigating the schedule with a backup QB who played okay. Worthy is good, and while we don't know how banged up he will really be, they have other athletes at the skill positions. Their o-line and d-line is better, they have good backers, but the corners and secondary are really bad.

Just like UW, they had some cardiac games:



I watched some of the Bama, Houston, Oklahoma, Iowa State, and Okie State games. If we limit the big plays from Ewers we will win this game. Ewers is pretty good, if a bit inconsistent, and he does take shots downfield. I'd say he is better at this than Nix is, or at least they try doing it more often. They have a good run game and will get their yards, but we don't allow long runs on defense. If we have the lead, eventually Sark will try to cut into it with the big plays. If we can limit them and get off the field on 3rd down, Penix will be too efficient. Their secondary has their best player out for the 1st half due to a targeting. I think we will test them early and often. McMillan being healthy is a game changer. Odunze, McMillan, and Polk will be too much and Penix will throw for 300 yards.

During the close games they had this year, the Kwat defense was...okay? Kansas State should have beat Texas at home, I watched most of that game. The K State QB absolutely sucks and it was really sad watching them trying to punch it in during OT. Like absolute shank attempts at screens that weren't even accurate passes. Overall, Texas has played really poor passing offenses. The Pac 12 has gunslingers, even Sanders at Colorado pushes the ball down the field.

Texas had a really impressive win against Bama. Ewers was clutch. They looked good, I couldn't believe Sark won. That being said, at that point in the season Milroe was very one dimensional and he got benched the next game. That plays right into Texas' strength, which is their front seven.

Their fans are talking a lot about the ASU game, as they should, but that game took place in a windstorm and downpour in the October cold of Seattle. I'll ignore the fact that the team is widely suspected of having the flu for a second, because the irony is that UW is better served to play in a domed environment than the elements. Texas will have more fans in New Orleans, but I'm hoping UW can at least get to 35% or so of the stadium to make some legit noise. I have 100% confidence that ASU game UW offense, with an injured guard and receivers, playing in the rain, will not make an appearance. If it does congrats on the W, Longhorns. DeBoer has won 20 games in a row, and that was the 1 absolute head scratcher of a performance. We looked like Iowa out there, at least the defense came to play.

Here is a big difference between the two teams - we beat Oregon on a neutral field. When it mattered most, our team got it done - for literally every marble. Texas, on the other hand, had the Pete K special where his defense got their shit pushed in when they absolutely couldn't afford to. Gabriel marched down the field and won the game. That Oklahoma team is good but not word beaters - they lost to an average Kansas and horrific Oklahoma State team.

Don't forget - Oklahoma State got absolutely clowned on by a South Alabama team. At home. The Big 12 really sucks, and I think this will be proven come bowl season. Arizona is going to beat Oklahoma in the Alamo Bowl - Gabriel isn't playing, but even if he was I would bet on Arizona and Fifita. Yes, the Ducks had a close win @ Tortilla Tech, but the Big 12 has some really bad out of conference losses at a whole, and when you look at the QBs in the conference they are all really bad save for Gabriel and Ewers. Not B1G tier horrific QB play, but still bad.

Anyways, this is entering TLDR territory. Washington will control the ball on Texas. We will out-athlete them on the perimeter, and the line will pass pro well. If they drop everyone, we will run on them. Just like we did last year. Just like we did to Oregon.

UW will be ahead most of the game, Texas might cut it to 10 or so in the 3rd of 4th quarter, but ultimately it will be a fairly comfortable win that was never really in doubt, but also not a blowout.

Great post. A lot to digest, but a few counterpoints:

1. I don't necessarily agree that the Texas "corners and secondary are really bad." The corners are fine, actually pretty good. Barron the nickel is a very good player / difference maker. He should have been all conference. The best cover corner is Ryan Watts -- Texas kid who transferred back home from Ohio State -- who got hurt before the OU game. He's been in and (mostly) out of the lineup all season, and finally appeared to get healthy. Then he hurt his back on the very first play against Texas Tech and missed the rest of that one plus the OSU game. He should be healthy by New Years and they definitely need him. The other corner Brooks is pretty good. He should have had a pick six in the Alamobowl last year. Malik Muhammed is a true freshman who has come on the last half of the season. He's going to be a really good one. When PK has let the corners press, they've been very good. They are physical and athletic. They will get burned deep from time to time like all corners, but the underneath stuff in zone is where they've gotten hurt. To me, this is one of the keys to the game. Will Texas press and will Penix and Odunze set them on fire?

2. The safeties OTOH can definitely be exploited. Williams, who is suspended for the first half (the targeting rule is a joke - but that's another topic) is another true freshman (5 star bought recruited out of Louisiana) who has also really come on the last half of the season. He's going to be a really good one and will be missed the first half of the game. There are three other safeties back there who have been burned at different points of the season. Kitan Crawford is a plus athlete who is very mistake prone. Difference maker on special teams though. Jerrin Thompson is experienced but slow. Michael Taffe is a former walk on, coach on the field lunch pail type who has a nose for the ball white. Jalen Catalon is the guy who entered the portal. He was a freshman AA at Arkansas who portaled in, but he can't stay healthy either here or when he was at Arkansas. More run stopper than coverage guy. He hasn't played meaningful snaps in weeks. His loss isn't that much of an actual loss.

3. I don't want to get into schedule pissing matches because it's stupid and the Pac got a lot of mileage out of some OOC games that in hindsight, don't look that impressive. And I'm sure as shit not going to defend the Big 12. But you can't underestimate how badly every team in the Big 12 usually wants to beat Texas, and then multiply that by 10 since its the last season in the conference. Texas was a jihad game for every team on the schedule. They threw schemes at Texas that they had never showed on tape. They tried every trick play imaginable. Injured players miraculously got healthy. Texas got everybody's best shot. And they still made it through unscathed (sans OU) for whatever that is worth.

4. Texas can win in different ways. They don't have to throw to beat you, but they can. They don't have to run to beat you, but they can. They can win on special teams. They can win on defense. Like Washington, they found ways to win even when playing poorly, which says a lot about both teams. Texas is a better team than you saw in San Antonio last year. I don't know if they are good enough to beat Washington. I do like that they played last year and lost, so Texas will have a very healthy respect in their preparation. Should be a great game.